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Heavy Snow at times next week especially after midweek
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how good are the charts?, could you please explain more for beginners ?Weathercheck wrote: »I find it hard to understand the negativity in here with charts like this: just 2 and 3 days away respectively.
During any other winter we'd be ramping up!
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But those charts show lowest 500-1000 dams of around 532dm over Ireland....pretty marginal in my opinion.
Must of read some incorrect charts methinks.
At 48 hours thicknesses at 500-1000 dams are sub 528 across the country and dropping fast as the northeasterlies drags in.
While at 72 hours Ireland is in a bitter flow with sub 522 dam right across the country.
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Weathercheck wrote: »Must of read some incorrect charts methinks.
At 48 hours thicknesses at 500-1000 dams are sub 528 across the country and dropping fast as the northeasterlies drags in.
While at 72 hours Ireland is in a bitter flow with sub 522 dam right across the country.
Hmmm, I was only calculating them from your previous charts, but ok maybe I over estimated them.
I still say it's marginal though! :P 0 -
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I'd tend to agree very much with Su Campu on this one. We have, during this week, a conversion from an RPM airflow to a PM airflow, followed possibly by an RPM airflow once again. This is exactly what was indicated when I posted the outlook earlier yesterday & I can see no major changes since then. There is still a low risk of a Northeasterly airflow towards Day 5 - Day 7 & this is indicated on tonight's ECMWF 12Z Evolution.
Without posting all of the charts, I've reviewed the 12Z ECMWF Guidance & in brief summary, there appears to be a period of quite sustained precipitation over Eastern areas within the next 72 Hours. However, 850mb temperatures do not support this as being snowfall, only at much higher elevations.
The much colder Polar Maritime airflow only really kicks in after the the Eastward movement of the original Polar Trough - that will mainfest itself in the form of a shallow low.
Without a doubt there will be snow at times over high ground in the coming week, but there is no signal for widespread lowland snowfall on any occasion. There will be some surprises, but generally conditions are modelled as becoming much drier by the time that somewhat deeper cold kicks in.
In addition, this is modified cold air. At this time of the year, if we are after sustained lying snow, nothing less than 850mb temperatures of -8 from a due Northerly/Northeasterly/Easterly direction will suffice, with the exception of a very sharp direct Polar Maritime trending Polar Northwesterly airflow.
It will be a wintry week ahead, with rain, sleet and snow for many at times. At the moment I would be more concerned about the risk from ice formation on surfaces after rain/sleet/snow. Frosts could also become increasingly severe from midweek onwards.
If we can shift the largescale pattern some 300 - 500 miles Southwards, then I might get quite excited at the prospects.
Gerry Murphy's forecast at 9.30PM summed up the overall pattern very well.
SA
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munsterlegend wrote: »any update on the charts wolfe? looking good that snow is falling already even if it is on higher ground. am i right in saying that the colder air has yet to arrive down south yet?
Hi Munster
The colder air does not sweep down over us until tomorrow morning or early afternoon. However, that does not mean there will not be further wintry precipiation throughout the country. What it means is that the snowline will continue to drop to lower levels. At my location the snow is settling above 500-600ft. Come Wed night/Thursday morn lower levels will be at risk of seeing snow. This has been made more likely by the fact that the latest GFS has upgraded matters, by showing a more direct feed of cold air from arctic regions.
Again, it looks as if the western half of the country will bear the brunt of precip, along with the north ulster coast.
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