Only solution is for Ireland to leave the euro

kaymin

imitation wrote: »

Honestly, if you think Ireland and Argentina are in the same boat, and that we should mimic there desperate actions, you`d want to take a deep breath and look outside the window.



http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Argentine_economic_crisis_%281999%E2%80%932002%29

What does this prove? The period you refer to was mostly before Argentina defaulted / devalued.

kaymin

ei.sdraob wrote: »

oh the fun continues....


if the likes of UK (with their devaluations) are being savaged, god help if Ireland was "floating" along on its own now.....

but of course lets continue to ignore facts and reality in this thread


http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/finance/ambroseevans-pritchard/100003763/britain-and-the-pigs/

You seem to think the UK doesn't want a weak pound - a weak pound suits the UK economy now as it makes British companies more competitive and lessens job losses. Your focus seems to be solely on wealth preservation.

ei.sdraob

kaymin wrote: »

You seem to think the UK doesn't want a weak pound - a weak pound suits the UK economy now as it makes British companies more competitive and lessens job losses. Your focus seems to be solely on wealth preservation.

why dont you read this post

devaluation has not accomplished anything in UK

if anything their trade position got worse

---

anyways in the news today

The UK inflation rate rose to 3.5% in January - the fastest annual pace for 14 months - from 2.9% the month before, official figures have shown.

all that money printing to devalue is backfiring now, and of course anything that has to be imported into UK went up in price (in local currency)



yet again in this thread im providing evidence about this being a bad idea and all i get from you and @skepticone is opinion and same waffle

/

cson

SkepticOne wrote: »

1. Ireland defaults and leaves the Euro.
2. Other states breach EU treaties and impose tariffs on Ireland even though technically Ireland is still in the Euro and at this stage entitled to free trade within the EU.

Computer says no.

K-9

kaymin wrote: »

Must have misunderstood you then....

I don't think the property bubble would have arisen if we were outside the euro because I believe the central bank would have raised interest rates which should put a halt to property price rises.

The same Central Bank that did nothing on loan repayment affordability ratios and 100% mortgages? What makes you think that this same organisation would have stepped in with interest rates?

Lack of regulation here had just as much, if not more, of an effect here than interest rates.

Spains banking system is a good example, though they are having their own problems now.

Again, interest rates did rise in the summer of 06, the market levelled of. Cue McDowell and the stamp duty debacle, Cowen doubling mortgage interest relief for FTB's and FG/Labour were no better with their proposals.

SkepticOne

cson wrote: »

Computer says no.

Meant to say EU.

ShowMeTheCash

ei.sdraob wrote: »

why dont you read this post

devaluation has not accomplished anything in UK

if anything their trade position got worse

---

anyways in the news today



all that money printing to devalue is backfiring now, and of course anything that has to be imported into UK went up in price (in local currency)



yet again in this thread im providing evidence about this being a bad idea and all i get from you and @skepticone is opinion and same waffle

/

UK are in control of what they do with their currency, with the euro we are simply along for the ride.
The weakening of the sterling was always going to have an impact on the UK economy now being seen with interest rates. But this was always going to happen, same will happen here in the next few years, interest rate will shoot up and up, the USA done the same thing if only a year or two before the UK and now that Greece is going to go down the pan, and probably Spain and Ireland the euro will be devalued also, unfortunately it might already be too late for us. We are not compedative therefore dead in the water! I was listening to Today FM that dude that brought Intel to ireland said, when Intel came to ireland there was 13 reasons why they came here, of the 13 only 1 remains low corporation tax.

Why are we so expensive??

greendom

It is the solution if the problem you're trying to solve is

" How do you put the final nail in the coffin of our sorry state of an economy?"

ShowMeTheCash

greendom wrote: »

It is the solution if the problem you're trying to solve is

" How do you put the final nail in the coffin of our sorry state of an economy?"

I think we should never have joined, I think a lot of jobs could have been saved.
But seeing we do not have a crystal ball, the reasons for leaving Germany are going to have to tackle now anyway - The euro will be devalued just matter of time!

greendom

ShowMeTheCash wrote: »

I think we should never have joined, I think a lot of jobs could have been saved.
But seeing we do not have a crystal ball, the reasons for leaving Germany are going to have to tackle now anyway - The euro will be devalued just matter of time!

And an awful lot more wouldn't have been created in the first place.

ShowMeTheCash

greendom wrote: »

And an awful lot more wouldn't have been created in the first place.

What jobs where created?

greendom

ShowMeTheCash wrote: »

What jobs where created?

I'm referring to the MNCs that came to Ireland and became the bedrock of the Celtic Tiger. Many came in the 90s but they came because Ireland was at the core of the euro project.

kaymin

ei.sdraob wrote: »

why dont you read this post

devaluation has not accomplished anything in UK

if anything their trade position got worse

---

anyways in the news today



all that money printing to devalue is backfiring now, and of course anything that has to be imported into UK went up in price (in local currency)



yet again in this thread im providing evidence about this being a bad idea and all i get from you and @skepticone is opinion and same waffle

/

But inflation is a good thing when there's a recession! It counteracts the effects of the recession as it encourages spending now.

What would be the consequences for the UK trade position had they not taken the course of action they took? It would inevitably have been far worse.

It's just commonsense not opinion.

ShowMeTheCash

greendom wrote: »

I'm referring to the MNCs that came to Ireland and became the bedrock of the Celtic Tiger. Many came in the 90s but they came because Ireland was at the core of the euro project.

We did not need to join the euro, low corporation tax and back door deals with Charlie and Bertie got most of the big MNC's on board - these MNC will leave us high and dry which a lot are doing now... (DELL) (SEAGATE) Great plan for 15 years of growth we have managed to get into so much debit we are going to be paying for it for the next 50.

It all comes down to money, europe and the west in general are not compedative, India and China will do your job and mine for a 1/5 of the price, taking the euro we traded in any chance to compete for our own jobs.

kaymin

greendom wrote: »

I'm referring to the MNCs that came to Ireland and became the bedrock of the Celtic Tiger. Many came in the 90s but they came because Ireland was at the core of the euro project.

But Intel didn't list euro membership 20 years ago and aren't listing it now as a reason why they came to Ireland.

kaymin

K-9 wrote: »

The same Central Bank that did nothing on loan repayment affordability ratios and 100% mortgages? What makes you think that this same organisation would have stepped in with interest rates?

Lack of regulation here had just as much, if not more, of an effect here than interest rates.

Spains banking system is a good example, though they are having their own problems now.

Again, interest rates did rise in the summer of 06, the market levelled of. Cue McDowell and the stamp duty debacle, Cowen doubling mortgage interest relief for FTB's and FG/Labour were no better with their proposals.

The CB managed fine when they had control of interest rates before the euro was introduced.

Of course I agree the government stoked the bubble but higher interest rates would have more than counteracted these actions in my view.

K-9

kaymin wrote: »

The CB managed fine when they had control of interest rates before the euro was introduced.

Of course I agree the government stoked the bubble but higher interest rates would have more than counteracted these actions in my view.

OK, what happened in the last devaluation crisis we had?

hinault

K-9 wrote: »

OK, what happened in the last devaluation crisis we had?

IEP Punt started to devalue : Irish Interest rates rocketted :

Chicken egg scenario.


Leaving the Euro would be madness.

kaymin

K-9 wrote: »

OK, what happened in the last devaluation crisis we had?

In the context of property prices?

cson

ShowMeTheCash wrote: »

It all comes down to money, europe and the west in general are not compedative, India and China will do your job and mine for a 1/5 of the price, taking the euro we traded in any chance to compete for our own jobs.

They're not the type of jobs Ireland should be targetting and endeavouring to create in the first place.

kaymin

More food for thought:

http://www.econ.berkeley.edu/~eichengr/breakup_euro_area.pdf

cson

kaymin wrote: »

In the context of property prices?

To pre-empt; I'd imagine it would be in general terms. There is more to the economy than property despite what people of a few years ago would have you believe.

Nate--IRL--

kaymin wrote: »

More food for thought:

http://www.econ.berkeley.edu/~eichengr/breakup_euro_area.pdf

That paper seems to outline the Political and economic consequences of an exit quite well.

Nate

kaymin

cson wrote: »

To pre-empt; I'd imagine it would be in general terms. There is more to the economy than property despite what people of a few years ago would have you believe.

The devaluations of 1986 and 1993 were contributory factors to economic growth.

Green Gooner

How much would it cost to introduce/produce new cash?

Nate--IRL--

Green Gooner wrote: »

How much would it cost to introduce/produce new cash?

In the grand scheme of the things suggested it would be inconsequential.

Nate

K-9

kaymin wrote: »

In the context of property prices?

Ach No, that was a different argument and apologies for dragging us down that route. It is hard to discuss the past few years without discussing it, in particular the Central Banks inaction.

I think if you want to exit the Euro, not alone should interest rates be outside political influence, so should the decision to devalue.

ei.sdraob

ShowMeTheCash wrote: »

UK are in control of what they do with their currency, with the euro we are simply along for the ride.
...
Why are we so expensive??

1. they are not control as illustrated by references earlier

2. Ireland being expensive has little to do with the currency

kaymin wrote: »

But inflation is a good thing when there's a recession! It counteracts the effects of the recession as it encourages spending now.

What would be the consequences for the UK trade position had they not taken the course of action they took? It would inevitably have been far worse.

It's just common sense

,


theres a difference between little inflation staying on target and runaway inflation

BOEs target is 2%,

their inflation has shot up from 2.9% to 3.7% in one month, that means Mervyn King (BOE top guy) has to write a letter yet again to the Queen explaining why the hell this is happening and why is the economy not in control

having the price of everything go up while unemployment is on rise and gdp + wages are falling is a disaster, now they will have to up interest rates to control inflation which will hit the economy hard

ill put it to you this way, if inflation is such a good thing then why not give everyone 10000 euro? 100000 euro?? why is Zimbabwe not the worlds leading economy ??? go ahead think it thru

once again why is UK now seen riskier than Spain or Italy or for that matter Ireland? what exactly did their devaluation accomplish?? keep in mind that they had own currency to begin with so devaluation didnt involve breaking international treaties

/

K-9

kaymin wrote: »

The devaluations of 1986 and 1993 were contributory factors to economic growth.

No, not necessarily.

I live close to the border and the punt was more valuable than sterling in 95/96. We didn't devalue and we still had a proper boom until 01/02.

PS. Our currency was over valued then, we didn't devalue.

ei.sdraob

ShowMeTheCash wrote: »

UK are in control of what they do with their currency, with the euro we are simply along for the ride. ?

simple question:

would you trust Zanu FF in control of such an important economic tool as money printing?

thebman

ShowMeTheCash wrote: »

We did not need to join the euro, low corporation tax and back door deals with Charlie and Bertie got most of the big MNC's on board - these MNC will leave us high and dry which a lot are doing now... (DELL) (SEAGATE) Great plan for 15 years of growth we have managed to get into so much debit we are going to be paying for it for the next 50.

It all comes down to money, europe and the west in general are not compedative, India and China will do your job and mine for a 1/5 of the price, taking the euro we traded in any chance to compete for our own jobs.

In that case no country in the Eurozone should be getting higher investment now that previous years.

So why are Italy and Germany getting higher levels of investment? Magic?

woodseb

Aside from the economic/fiscal implications of leaving the euro which i don't think justify a move has any of the proponents of leaving the euro considered the practical consquences of suddenly ditching the Euro?

There would be chaos as there would still be a propert function physical currency around the country and people would hoard Euros in the face of a plummeting New Punt. It could take years for a full switchover and those who rely on government payments (welfare, public service) would be much worse off long with punishing those who kept their savings in bank accounts.

It is not as 'simple' a process as in other examples when the central bank just devalued an existing currency

SkepticOne

woodseb wrote: »

There would be chaos as there would still be a propert function physical currency around the country and people would hoard Euros in the face of a plummeting New Punt. It could take years for a full switchover and those who rely on government payments (welfare, public service) would be much worse off long with punishing those who kept their savings in bank accounts.

It is not as 'simple' a process as in other examples when the central bank just devalued an existing currency

They could hoard euros but all taxes would have to be paid in the new currency. All VAT from retailers, all government salaries etc would be in the new currency. Legal tender would be in the new currency. Hoarding Euros would protect savings from the initial devaluation but on an ongoing basis people would switch over to the new currency to avoid transaction costs and for convenience.

ei.sdraob

SkepticOne wrote: »

They could hoard euros but all taxes would have to be paid in the new currency. All VAT from retailers, all government salaries etc would be in the new currency. Legal tender would be in the new currency. Hoarding Euros would protect savings from the initial devaluation but on an ongoing basis people would switch over to the new currency to avoid transaction costs and for convenience.

Yes just like people used gold and us dollars in zimbabwe with the local currency being useless, and eventually the government gave up and switched to us dollars

the use of money requires confidence, what you propose would shatter what little confidence is left (in exchange for what exactly?)

checkout Russia's default in the 90's almost everyone switched to using us dollars then, why?

Nate--IRL--

SkepticOne wrote: »

They could hoard euros but all taxes would have to be paid in the new currency. All VAT from retailers, all government salaries etc would be in the new currency. Legal tender would be in the new currency. Hoarding Euros would protect savings from the initial devaluation but on an ongoing basis people would switch over to the new currency to avoid transaction costs and for convenience.

And where does this legal tender come from? They can hardly print/mint it all on the night before the switch over. Banks would have to be shut down until An Punt Nua can be delivered to them. How long would that take? What damage would happen to the economy with no functioning banks?

Nate

ShowMeTheCash

cson wrote: »

To pre-empt; I'd imagine it would be in general terms. There is more to the economy than property despite what people of a few years ago would have you believe.

Yeah we have business and we are too expensive - way to expensive - our nearest neighbour the UK. Is considerably cheaper, you just need to look at Newry on the weekend to see this. So what can we do to ensure Irish jobs? ensure Irish trade??? Tell everyone we need to take a 20 - 40% pay cut just to be compedative with the UK?

Jobs are still being lost in ireland we have not yet hit rock bottom, without money coming in everything else is going to fail at some point.

If the euro is devalued I think it will help the country with day-to-day business and I think this is where we need to start. Else people just need to get real and realise they are not worth the money they are being paid.

ShowMeTheCash

cson wrote: »

They're not the type of jobs Ireland should be targetting and endeavouring to create in the first place.

You are living in the dark ages - Going back 20 years there is a lot of things the asian countries may not have been able to do whether that be due to infrastrcture or the fact the country was too poor, this is no longer the case as a nation we do not stand head and shoulders anymore above these countries if anything they will over take us. Our education over the last 20 years in a gloabl sense is not nearly as strong as it was we do not have anything of real value that comes from ireland i.e. Dimonds, oil etc....

Tell me exactly what jobs we should be looking to create that could not be done in say China or India?

ei.sdraob

ShowMeTheCash wrote: »

Yeah we have business and we are too expensive - way to expensive - our nearest neighbour the UK. Is considerably cheaper, you just need to look at Newry on the weekend to see this. So what can we do to ensure Irish jobs? ensure Irish trade??? Tell everyone we need to take a 20 - 40% pay cut just to be compedative with the UK?.

once again our uncompetitiveness has little to do with the currency

your logic is based on false premise hence its a fail

K-9

Maybe the problem is we have a market of 500 odd million people using the same currency as us and we haven't exploited it as we were too busy selling houses and services to each other?

The EU is our biggest single market and multinationals have taken advantage of it. Our indigenous exporters don't seem to have to the same level of success.

fontanalis

woodseb wrote: »

Aside from the economic/fiscal implications of leaving the euro which i don't think justify a move has any of the proponents of leaving the euro considered the practical consquences of suddenly ditching the Euro?

There would be chaos as there would still be a propert function physical currency around the country and people would hoard Euros in the face of a plummeting New Punt. It could take years for a full switchover and those who rely on government payments (welfare, public service) would be much worse off long with punishing those who kept their savings in bank accounts.

It is not as 'simple' a process as in other examples when the central bank just devalued an existing currency

Ah but back in Devs shamrock Disneyland they had the punt. Seriously, some people seem to have bad memory and a knack of not attributing our own failure to ourselves, not good when you want to get out of a blackhole.

fontanalis

ShowMeTheCash wrote: »

You are living in the dark ages - Going back 20 years there is a lot of things the asian countries may not have been able to do whether that be due to infrastrcture or the fact the country was too poor, this is no longer the case as a nation we do not stand head and shoulders anymore above these countries if anything they will over take us. Our education over the last 20 years in a gloabl sense is not nearly as strong as it was we do not have anything of real value that comes from ireland i.e. Dimonds, oil etc....

Tell me exactly what jobs we should be looking to create that could not be done in say China or India?

Noone would work for China or India level wages.

SkepticOne

Article by Professor Martin Feldstein (via the irish Economy blog) here recommending temporary exit from the Eurozone for Greece.

The European economic and monetary union is doubly flawed. First, it forces diverse countries to live with a single interest rate and exchange rate that cannot be appropriate for all members. Second, combining a single currency with independent national budget policies encourages fiscal profligacy. The Greek situation is a manifestation of these flaws. If European political leaders nevertheless want to preserve the current system, allowing a temporary exchange rate reset for Greece may be the best option.

ShowMeTheCash

ei.sdraob wrote: »

once again our uncompetitiveness has little to do with the currency

your logic is based on false premise hence its a fail

What is currency? A value we put on something that is not real, owning our currency and shifting the goal posts is a lot easier than trying to adjust the entire country

ShowMeTheCash

fontanalis wrote: »

Noone would work for China or India level wages.

Exactly!

evolutionqy7

kaymin wrote: »

Leaving the euro is the only way we will emerge from recession for the following related reasons IMO:

a) there is too much opposition from the unions to sufficiently reduce our general wage levels
b) inward investment will continue to fall due to high cost of doing business here resulting in increased unemployment
c) domestic demand will remain low due to high personal debt and unemployment preventing any kind of domestic driven recovery
d) export driven recovery won't happen because our costs are too high resulting in the price of our produce being uncompetitive on international markets.
e) unemployment will worsen our fiscal position preventing Ireland (due to pressure from lenders for Ireland to balance the books) from stimulating the economy through increased spending
f) higher interest rates in Euroland will be a barrier to a recovery in Ireland since we will be one of the last to emerge (if we ever do).

It's a vicious circle that is almost impossible to extract oneself. The solution is to leave the euro imo - consequences are:
a) Immediate reduction in cost of doing business here resulting in increased inward investment.
b) Cost of exports are immediately lower resulting in increased demand on international markets for Irish produce facilitating an export driven recovery.
c) Cost of imports will be too high favouring domestic producers thereby boosting employment in Irish companies facilitating a domestic driven recovery
d) We will be able to keep interest rates low until we've properly recovered.
e) Should solve the public versue private sector debate though we still need to make the public service more efficient


Problem with this approach is our (Ireland's and our personal) debt is denominated in euro leading most likely to default. Euro personal debt would have to be redenominated in Irish punts at a rate that is consisent with current euro debt / euro earning ratio. Lenders inevitably would have to take a hit on the fx.

The above approach is similar to what is recommended for Latvia and what happened in Argentina in 2001 - see link below. Latvia continues to peg its currency to the euro while Argentina pegged its currency to the dollar until it was forced to devalue. It was only when Argentina devalued that it emerged from recession.

http://www.cepr.net/documents/publications/latvia-recession-2010-02.pdf

Any views?

mmm all of it is true but leave the euro? i know its the fault of idiots who kept increasing the living cost and the goverments fault for getting carried away with the tax rise...but surely lowered tax and lowered living costs would atleast bring back some foreign investors back...that was the 1st reason they came here wasnt it? ppl got carried away...prices and tax rise and they go somewhere else where its cheaper...makes sense

ei.sdraob

ShowMeTheCash wrote: »

What is currency? A value we put on something that is not real, owning our currency and shifting the goal posts is a lot easier than trying to adjust the entire country

yes instead of fixing our economy and addressing the root causes of this recession instead we go out with a bang Zimbabwe style :rolleyes:


currency is not only something that people use as a unit of exchange when trading, as was mentioned over and over earlier having own currency would not have prevented our current problems (yet again have little to do with euro) and if anything made them worse (see Iceland)

for any currency to work there needs to be confidence in the currency, as many posters over and over mentioned defaulting and devaluing would mean what little confidence is left goes poof into thin air, and most likely (as has happened before in many places) people would switch or continue to use whatever currency they have confidence in


anyways this thread is getting ridiculous, the posters on the "lets leave euro" side of the debate are not bothering to contribute anything interesting and continue to ignore and not address manys of points that have been made

/

ardmacha

This thread is indeed going nowhere. You can put the case for an independent currency, you can even put a case that Ireland should not have joined the Euro. However even if you argue these points this does imply that you should leave the Euro. There is no orderly or straightforward way to leave the Euro, there is only a crisis way to leave and the adverse impact of this would far outweigh any benefits.

Liam Byrne

fontanalis wrote: »

Noone would work for China or India level wages.

No one could afford to.

Typical (non-luxury) outlay per month :

Mortgage/loans : €900
Phone, broadband, TV : €100
Transport : €100
Heating : €50
Food : €300

That's €1,500 net before there's even a hint of a luxury! Average in car tax, house insurance, health insurance, car insurance, bin charges and whatever else and you need a minimum of €1,800 a month to survive in this country.

Ironically, most of the most expensive items and services are things that the Government should have had control over, but privatised / licensed / forgot to regulate effectively.

SkepticOne

ardmacha wrote: »

There is no orderly or straightforward way to leave the Euro, there is only a crisis way to leave and the adverse impact of this would far outweigh any benefits.

But at least a crisis would be over relatively quickly. At what stage are we going to emerge from the current difficulties? Paul Krugman said last June that it would take about five years of deflation.

Nate--IRL--

SkepticOne wrote: »

But at least a crisis would be over relatively quickly. At what stage are we going to emerge from the current difficulties? Paul Krugman said last June that it would take about five years of deflation.

Please explain what you mean by "a crisis". Please explain what you believe the effect of "a crisis" would be. And please also explain what you mean by relatively quickly.

Nate