Cold Spell Discussion: Heavy Snow this evening especially in eastern/southern areas

munsterlegend

arctictree wrote: »

+0.9c here. That band looks like its heading for here. Chance though that it might slip to the North and hit Dublin instead!

the band is going south/south east?

Gonzo

next week looks like a downgrade! Dont think im gonna see much if any snow till 2010/2011 as March just around the corner.

DOCARCH

arctictree wrote: »

+0.9c here. That band looks like its heading for here. Chance though that it might slip to the North and hit Dublin instead!

That's o.k.

munsterlegend

Gonzo wrote: »

next week looks like a downgrade! Dont think im gonna see much if any snow till 2010/2011 as March just around the corner.

just reading on nw they are rubbishing the gfs predictions for next week in light of the uk met office charts and warnings. seems very unpredictable at the minute.

Deep Easterly

Fog!

darkman2

Gonzo wrote: »

next week looks like a downgrade! Dont think im gonna see much if any snow till 2010/2011 as March just around the corner.

On the GFS, yes, but the European models so far still show similar to this morning with a risk later Tuesday.

snow ghost

There is a very ominous looking cloud band just to the North of me moving fairly swiftly Eastwards, throwing very strange shapes... it's sucking all the surrounding cloud into it and building up. It's alos going misty here.

And whatever is going on with the birds, as I was watching that mega-cloud, a massive, and I mean massive swarm of crows were flying off Eastwards on the horizon away from it.

(BtW anyone to the East of me that gets heavy snow soon - check it really is snow. )

DOCARCH

munsterlegend wrote: »

the band is going south/south east?

Looks to me as if everything is moving ENE.

fryup

heavy sneactha in east clare at the mo

Deep Easterly

snow ghost wrote: »

And whatever is going on with the birds, as I was watching that mega-cloud, a massive, and I mean massive swarm of crows were flying off Eastwards on the horizon away from it.

Had a huge swarm of crows flying overhead about 5 mins ago. Added nicely to the gloomy atmosphere. Such a stark change from the relatively bright early afternoon. The Irish weather, don't you just love it.

wild handlin

DOCARCH wrote: »

Looks to me as if everything is moving ENE.

Wind direction here in Enniskillen is currently blowing SE

munsterlegend

DOCARCH wrote: »

Looks to me as if everything is moving ENE.

wolfe said earlier it would move south/south east and it looks that way to me.

Ricky91t

Had alot of snow here in North Kerry but it's not sticking

nacho libre

munsterlegend wrote: »

just reading on nw they are rubbishing the gfs predictions for next week in light of the uk met office charts and warnings. seems very unpredictable at the minute.

that's kind of funny considering the gfs is often the model to look to if you are a cold lover. you're right it could go either way but i somehow doubt anywhere in ireland(outside of high ground) will see 20cm next week. still even half that wouldn't be too bad)!!

Storm 10

Snowing in Galway now :D

munsterlegend

nacho libre wrote: »

that's kind of funny considering the gfs is often the model to look to if you are a cold lover. you're right it could go either way but i somehow doubt anywhere in ireland(outside of high ground) will see 20cm next week. still even half that wouldn't be too bad)!!

they reckon the 18z gfs will show it being snowy again so we'll have to see later or maybe tomorrow if one is going out!

Sierra Oscar

Snow is now sticking on the roads! Pretty impressive considering it was raining most of the day until it started to snow.

Su Campu

The latest Dutch Satrep at 15Z analyses the system as a Cold Air Development (CAD) Here are the conditions to be expected from such a system, though I think today's is a tame version.

Parameter Description Precipitation

• Thunderstorms, rain and hail showers during the whole life cycle.

Temperature

• No remarkable changes.

Wind (incl. gusts)

• Increasing wind during the development of the Comma to a full-scale vortex.

Other relevant information

• In stages of development the Comma tail is more weather active with heavy convective development due to a left exit region of a jet streak.
• Convective cells mostly develop within the Comma tail and move to the head where they dissipate.
• In a more mature stage different conveyor belts are situated on top of each other and a Cold Front will develop.

Tom Cruises Left Nut

Looking nice for my neck of the woods !!

Lumi

Snowing but not sticking

Deep Easterly

munsterlegend wrote: »

they reckon the 18z gfs will show it being snowy again so we'll have to see later or maybe tomorrow if one is going out!

They way I see it, the models have been performing very well during this winter, and still continue to do so. What seems to be problem lately is the actual specifics, rather than with the trends they show. Western Europe is in a very unusual synoptic pattern at the moment, and I guess this contributes to to model uncertainty as it may be a pattern they have not dealt with before. What seems to be the overall trend this winter is that milder air just cannot seem to break though over the area for whatever reason. I guess it will at some stage though.

WolfeIRE

n1 deep. You have not got your easterly but i hope you enjoy the snow.

snow ghost

Fionagus wrote: »

Snowing but not sticking

You have to lick them Fionagus.

kenskool

wen i wake up 2moro wil fresh snow b on the ground???if so how much???:D

Sierra Oscar

Here are just two pictures of what its like at my place now from the front and back doors.:)

Quality is not great, so sorry for that in advance!

http://img26.yfrog.com/img26/3447/p1010447s.jpg

http://img692.yfrog.com/img692/8529/p1010448n.jpg

nacho libre

Deep Easterly wrote: »

They way I see it, the models have been performing very well during this winter, and still continue to do so. What seems to be problem lately is the actual specifics, rather than with the trends they show. Western Europe is in a very unusual synoptic pattern at the moment, and I guess this contributes to to model uncertainty as it may be a pattern they have not dealt with before. What seems to be the overall trend this winter is that milder air just cannot seem to break though over the area for whatever reason. I guess it will at some stage though.

yes, so if you are predicting milder weather. stick with it as you're bound to be right eventually:)

snaps

Since my cats came in for their dinner they are very wild, racing all over the house and chasing each other. Usually a sign of bad weather approaching. One as i speak is 3/4's the way up the landing window curtain!

WolfeIRE

snaps wrote: »

Since my cats came in for their dinner they are very wild, racing all over the house and chasing each other. Usually a sign of bad weather approaching. One as i speak is 3/4's the way up the landing window curtain!

Could be a sign they are cats too of course.

Snaps The Postman:p

lucernarian

I've been comparing various charts for 6pm and comparing it with Met Eireann's very short term 3 hour model. It appears that the lowest point of pressure is 50 to 100 km further north than expected even by the short term NAE model from 12z today.

I'm getting the feeling that a small amount of snow, up to a couple of centimetres perhaps is going to make its way over most of leinster including Dublin this evening and early tonight, but my confidence is still low because of the latest TAFs. I think the enhanced convection from this fact is still going to make its mark, perhaps with a more certain chance of snow than the other comma low in SW Ireland.

The satellite imagery from the UKMO from 11 till 5pm today also indicated 2 centres of rotation, one which would have landed at Westport and the other which is landing around Kerry I think. The Kerry one isn't really rotating but I can still make out an apex in the velocities travelling towards Kerry.

Su Campu

A pity we're not situated just to the southwest of Iceland as there was a Polar Low there this morning (the small spiral) :rolleyes: Still, I still hold out hope.....;)