Cold Spell Discussion: Heavy Snow this evening especially in eastern/southern areas

darkman2

18z GFS is showing a good 6 hours or so of snowfall in the Dublin region alone tomorrow night. It looks as though it's the Wicklow mountains northwards in the firing line at low ground.

Further south it get's more marginal with a rain, sleet, snow mix in the southeast. This due to the slightly milder sector there. Also potentially some wrap around on the East coast prolonging snowfall.

munsterlegend

darkman2 wrote: »

18z GFS is showing a good 6 hours or so of snowfall in the Dublin region alone tomorrow night. It looks as though it's the Wicklow mountains northwards in the firing line at low ground.

Further south it get's more marginal with a rain, sleet, snow mix in the southeast. This due to the slightly milder sector there. Also potentially some wrap around on the East coast prolonging snowfall.

its all going horribly wrong! or do you mean the south will be in trouble as well as in cork?

darkman2

munsterlegend wrote: »

its all going horribly wrong! or do you mean the south will be in trouble as well as in cork?

No, everywhere is at risk - just some more then others. With all these systems there is a milder sector. Cork will have precipitation through daylight hours which does not help at this time of year but the models still show snow potential elsewhere. It's the Southeast really that looks wet rather then white.

jambofc

let it snow......no not here :rolleyes:

on EDEN sky channel 532 now

danni2

Was in Tullamore today and had a snow shower at around 4, started off as hail then turned to snow(mainly light snow), nothing settled however it was nice to see:)

Im looking forward to tomorrow evenings snow, but im trying not to get too excited as I've been let down many times in the past.

dbyrne

darkman2 wrote: »

18z GFS is showing a good 6 hours or so of snowfall in the Dublin region alone tomorrow night. It looks as though it's the Wicklow mountains northwards in the firing line at low ground.

Further south it get's more marginal with a rain, sleet, snow mix in the southeast. This due to the slightly milder sector there. Also potentially some wrap around on the East coast prolonging snowfall.

and the masses will return to the forum. its great to see that the snow has the potential to return.

its just below freezing in rathfarnham, there was a bit of rain earlier and it has frozen at the moment, would be nice if it snowed now on it as it would definetly stay.

bray man

dbyrne wrote: »

and the masses will return to the forum.

they already have:D, we're watchin silently to see what the "boards experts" are saying;) ... 1.3/-2 here in bray

Deep Easterly

Nothing continuum here. -1.7c

derekon

darkman2 wrote: »

18z GFS is showing a good 6 hours or so of snowfall in the Dublin region alone tomorrow night. It looks as though it's the Wicklow mountains northwards in the firing line at low ground.

Further south it get's more marginal with a rain, sleet, snow mix in the southeast. This due to the slightly milder sector there. Also potentially some wrap around on the East coast prolonging snowfall.

Darkman2 its only an opinion but I think you are a brilliant ramper! I mean your quote above " 6 hours or so of snowfall in the Dublin region alone" might be a tad over the top?

I would say the reality is Dublin will get some sleet but mainly rain tomorrow night.

I hope I am open to correction as I love snow but going by past ramps, I will take this with a pretty large pinch of salt!!

Derek

JanuarySnowstor

darkman2 wrote: »

No, everywhere is at risk - just some more then others. With all these systems there is a milder sector. Cork will have precipitation through daylight hours which does not help at this time of year but the models still show snow potential elsewhere. It's the Southeast really that looks wet rather then white.

Cork is going to get the ppn around 6pm (hardly daytime)
If anything darkman the ppn could run South of Dublin. I'd prefer to be in Cork where at least the ppn will fall for a good few hours
18z is a massive upgrade for the longer term keeping things bitterly cold throughout the week, with several snow chances.

And yes munsterlegend it will snow in Cork:D:D Best chance 8-10pm Sat night!

munsterlegend

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

Cork is going to get the ppn around 6pm (hardly daytime)
If anything darkman the ppn could run South of Dublin. I'd prefer to be in Cork where at least the ppn will fall for a good few hours
18z is a massive upgrade for the longer term keeping things bitterly cold throughout the week, with several snow chances.

And yes munsterlegend it will snow in Cork:D:D Best chance 8-10pm Sat night!

well you did call the january event right for cork so i'll follow your lead. does the 18z do an upgrade for here with the potential event on monday?

Neamhshuntasach

Really heavy snow here now for the past 30 minutes. Looks like it's sticking even though it appears wet. Heaviest since early January. I'm about 100 ft or so asl.

JanuarySnowstor

munsterlegend wrote: »

well you did call the january event right for cork so i'll follow your lead. does the 18z do an upgrade for here with the potential event on monday?

Mondays event looks like missing us to the South, though it will be cloudy hence the very low daytime temps. Basically this wkd is confusing enough, without looking at next week. Best summed up as plenty chances of snowfall but none a certainty. What's certain though is a bitterly cold end to a bitterly cold Winter!

munsterlegend

Neamhshuntasach wrote: »

Really heavy snow here now for the past 30 minutes. Looks like it's sticking even though it appears wet. Heaviest since early January. I'm about 100 ft or so asl.

how this lad is still allowed on this forum is beyond me!

200motels

darkman2 wrote: »

No, everywhere is at risk - just some more then others. With all these systems there is a milder sector. Cork will have precipitation through daylight hours which does not help at this time of year but the models still show snow potential elsewhere. It's the Southeast really that looks wet rather then white.

Same old story.

bray man

Neamhshuntasach wrote: »

Really heavy snow here now for the past 30 minutes..

where's this?:mad:

darkman2

derekon wrote: »

Darkman2 its only an opinion but I think you are a brilliant ramper! I mean your quote above " 6 hours or so of snowfall in the Dublin region alone" might be a tad over the top?

I would say the reality is Dublin will get some sleet but mainly rain tomorrow night.

I hope I am open to correction as I love snow but going by past ramps, I will take this with a pretty large pinch of salt!!

Derek

I don't think I am. I think most threads and posts I make are fairly accurate. Sometimes things don't turn out as planned. But that is the nature of a science where the chaos theory takes over after 0hrs. I think the forecasts from everyone here are very good indeed - I don't recall any widely inaccurate forecasts tbh. I mean I started the snow potential thread last Friday IIRC with "after midweek" being of particular interest and that seems to be the case. I think the forum is very good and was extremely useful to boardsies during the floods last summer and the freeze in January...and entertaining aswell. We are not mystic megs...

Deep Easterly

darkman2 wrote: »

We are not mystic megs...

No, but Jean Byrne is:



:eek:

bray man

Deep Easterly wrote: »

No, but Jean Byrne is:
:eek:

HAHAHAHAH, amazing :D:D

Redsunset

Looking at the latest NAE and im happy.Charts for 6pm sat and midnight into sunday,should be fairly close to not changing by much now.
Snow cover over northern hemisphere is impressive too.

Oscar Bravo

-2 in castlebar at the moment,clear skies(obviously) i suppose.any1 got a TAF for EIKN for tomoro?

Deep Easterly

Is it me or do those NAE charts seem to be consistently off the ball?

Redsunset

Deep Easterly wrote: »

Is it me or do those NAE charts seem to be consistently off the ball?

All models having some kind of trouble but the NAE is normally very good.

WolfeIRE

Snow shower here two hours ago. Lasted for about ten mins. That's about it so far today

Cold spell will last into next weekend. For the first time as far back as I can remember, the SOUTH of the country is best positioned to see any snow between now and then. A truly unique scenario. To echo sentiments by some posters, the potential for snowfall everywhere else exists. I am not going to look past Monday at this stage but it is clear that there is a threat of some prolonged sleet and snow in the southern half of the country on Monday.

As for tomorrow, I am delighted to see that the precip has been pushed out to the late afternoon meaning that conditions will be more favourable for snowfall. The southern two thirds of the country (basically all but Ulster) are in the risk zone but the problem with tomorrow is that precip is likely to be intermittent and generally light in nature. Heavy localised falls of snow will occur and this is most likely in south connaught, north and west munster and the northern half of leinster. That's my guess based on the latest models. To everyone else in Connaught, Munster and Leinster you can be assured of snow if you are on high ground. Elsewhere, the way things ahve gone this winter snow is of course possible.

Deep Easterly

redsunset wrote: »

All models having some kind of trouble but the NAE is normally very good.

I don't look at them that often I admit, but I have just noticed that the ones posted up over the last few days have rarely if ever got it anyway right. But yes, no model is 100% spot on ever.

Gonzo

Im gonna guess that something will go wrong again each time this week that Meath will escape most if not all the snow again over the coming week. I think only County Waterford has beaten us so far this winter in the lack of snow!

Germag

You didn't see Mooretown and Lagore then, during the snow!

Su Campu

The latest TAFs for midnight to midnight are nothing to get excited about at all....

DUBLIN
EIDW 192300Z 2000/2024 26007KT 9999 FEW020 SCT035 PROB30 TEMPO 2004/2010 0400 FZFG BKN001 BECMG 2015/2018 20006KT PROB30 TEMPO 2020/2024 5000 -SHRASN -SHSN BKN010
SLIGHT CHANCE OF FREEZING FOG FROM 4AM TO 10AM. SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SLEET AND SNOW SHOWERS FROM 8PM. WIND WESTERLY 7 KNOTS

SHANNON
EINN 192300Z 2000/2024 28005KT 9999 SCT020 BECMG 2002/2005 23005KT PROB30 TEMPO 2004/2009 VRB03KT 0500 FZFG BKN001 TEMPO 2010/2019 SCT018CB PROB40 TEMPO 2012/2019 5000 -SHRASN -SHRAGS BKN010 BKN018CB BECMG 2012/2015 19007KT BECMG 2019/2022 24005KT
SLIGHT CHANCE OF FREEZING FOG FROM 4AM TO 9AM. MEDIUM CHANCE OF LIGHT SLEET AND GRAUPEL SHOWERS FROM MIDDAY TO 7PM. WIND WESTERLY 5 KNOTS

CORK
EICK 192300Z 2000/2024 29006KT 9999 FEW018 SCT035 TEMPO 2004/2010 VRB03KT PROB30 TEMPO 2004/2010 0400 FG BKN001 BECMG 2009/2012 25010KT BECMG 2012/2015 20012KT TEMPO 2014/2019 5000 -SHRASN BKN006 BKN015CB BECMG 2019/2022 25010KT
SLIGHT CHANCE OF FOG FROM 4AM TO 10AM. LIGHT SLEET SHOWERS FROM 2PM TO 7PM. WIND WESTERLY 6-10 KNOTS

KNOCK
EIKN 192300Z 2000/2024 VRB03KT 9999 FEW018 SCT030 PROB40 TEMP0 2003/2010 0400 FZFG BKN001 BECMG 2010/2013 19006KT TEMPO 2012/2019 SCT010 SCT016CB PROB40 TEMPO 2012/2018 0500 -SHSN BKN002 BECMG 2019/2022 VRB03KT
MEDIUM CHANCE OF FOG FROM 3AM TO 10AM. MEDIUM CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS FROM MIDDAY TO 6PM. WIND VARIABLE 3 KNOTS.

BELFAST ALDERGROVE
EGAA 192302Z 2000/2024 23004KT 9999 FEW010 SCT020 PROB40 2002/2010 0300 FZFG BKN000 PROB30 TEMPO 2010/2012 BKN005
MEDIUM CHANCE OF FREEZING FOG FROM 2AM TO 10AM. WIND SOUTHWESTERLY 4 KNOTS

WolfeIRE

Light snow here.

-1c

Roads are dangerous. Any precip that falls is freezing over immediately.

Tom Cruises Left Nut

Sky clear as a bell here and its fecking freeeeeezin !!!