Waterford's Representatives in the Dáil - Present and Future

Trotter

With the boat being well and truly rocked in the Dáil this week, I got thinking about our own Waterford TDs and how they might be getting on. I've been keeping a close eye on the news, papers, internet etc and I actually haven't heard anything from any of them, except from Martin Cullen roaring back at some unsavouries thrown in his direction.

Given that things look rocky, what is the state of play with existing and future TDs for Waterford? If there was a general election soon, would we be odds on to send our 4 TDs back to Dublin again? Is there a new candidate for any of the parties waiting to have a go this time? Have we our own George Lee waiting to be parachuted in to cause a stir? (I doubt it!).

I haven't heard a lot from any of our TDs at all and I'd certainly like to see some new energetic representation the next time around. I wonder would there be any high profile independents that might surprise us and offer us something new.

Would the Greens run a candidate? Would Labour stick with Brian O'Shea or look to take a second seat? (I reckon they'd have a good chance there). Would FF get their 2 seats back? Would they get any seats at all?! :eek:

Has John Deasy done enough to hold a seat? Would FG do well to run a high profile city candidate?

The last thing we need is more of the same I think. The next election could be a make or break for Waterford City. We need TDs who know how to get the best out of what we've got, and what we'll have in terms of the M9 and an underrated airport etc. Then theres the university question again!

So many questions.. exciting times ahead if we're to have an early election in 2010.

jayboi

Id imagine Cullen wouldn’t run again hes had a torrid time in the media and as for the invisible man if I wasn’t amazed by his reposted expenses you could be forgiven for thinking hes emigrated to Australia 2 years ago hes so quiet.

Kenneally is anyone’s guess id say, he only barely scraped in in the last general then again if only one FFer runs the he might just pip a seat.
If Kenneally doesn’t run then I couldn’t see any other FFer run as there’s no other established candidate for them they only have one councillor who got the last seat in the largest ward I think there way 6 seats and after all the transfers only got 300 or so votes.
For FF I think it would be madness to run more than one candidate even though they usually run 3 and usually get 2.

If Brian O'Shea were to run again and if it’s a FG Labour coalition he would be in a good position for a minister’s portfolio.
If labour were to run another candidate id imagine it would probably have be one of their city councillors however don’t see any of them taking the plunge.

For FG Deasy will almost certainly get in if he runs which is a certainty.
It’s a question of then does FG run 2 or 3 candidates.
Coffey will run id say he did well in the last general almost piped Kenneally to the 4th seat if I can remember, personally id like to see someone else I feel hes been disappointing in Seanad.

One to watch as an outside bet would be Halligan top of the polls in the locals for me it brings up the question if he did would it be bad or good for local politics.

I remember hearing rumblings that the number of TDs would be reduced if this is so I wouldn’t be surprised if Waterford loses a seat

(Question can I call someone annoying a loud mouth?)

mike65

I had forgot we had any TDs to be honest. Agree with much of the above but Cullen will stand again I'm sure. Kenneally has been getting closer to loosing his to seat Ollie Wilkinson for a couple of elections. One of them will get elected though so thats two FF

Deasy is a shoe-in, Paudie Coffey is in the seanard as spokesperson for Environment, Heritage & Local Government the party will get behind him big time I'd say. So it could be a return to the days of 2 FG.

Brian O'Shea is 65 this year he'll be asked to run again (even if he doesn't want to!) as Labour have no-one else near his vote, Sinn Fein clearly have to keep Cullinane in the game but I can't help but think voters would look elsewhere to get rid of FF. No other candidates are likely to make a splash.

Trotter

It'd be crazy for us not to make some sort of changes to the lineup. If we stay with the old stale setup, we've no excuses or right to moan after the election when theres silence from the TDs. Theres definitely a need for new blood. The more I think about it, the more theres a second Labour seat there for the taking. Its a pity the MEP Alan Kelly is from Tipp!

mike65

Who would run for the second seat? Who would loose to a 2nd Labour seat? FF? I doubt it, nothing short of a political earthquke will stop 2 FFers returning. We are not Dublin SE where crazy things happen quite often. Waterford is one of the most boring constituencies in the state.

jayboi

No way whatsoever could I see FF winning 2 seats in Waterford they only barely managed that at the last election. I’ll admit that if Cullen does run he will probably get in my not on the first count but eventually, I still don’t think he would though (he has a liable case on the cards against the papers; Monica Leech won her case why wouldn’t he).

As for Kenneally and Wilkinson it seems to be either/or with the two, one always seems to get in at the cost of the other and on the last count and there’s no booming economy to help them out next time round.
A point to remember is that there is a hell of lot resentment in this town towards FF. If threes one job I would never do is canvas for them the level of abuse both verbal and I can imagine in some case it could get physical abuse you will get would be unreal.

My prediction
1 FF
1 Lab
1 FG
And the last seat to go to either FG or independent(Halligan)

nkay1985

I think Waterford would just return 2FF, 1 FG and 1 Labour as we always do. The only potential upset (and it's not unlikely) would be Coffey aking a second FG seat at Kenneally's expense. But there's no second seat for Labour and Halligan wouldn't stand a chance of pulling enough votes from outside his own ward in the city, never mind the county to get within an ass's roar of a seat.

2FF, 1 FG, 1 Labour or 2FG, 1 FF, 1 Labour.

deisemum

I think FF would be extremely lucky to get 2 seats next time round. Most people that I know to be staunch FFers have said they wouldn't vote FF again.

My husband's family have always been staunch FFers, his uncle is a former FF junior minister and there's no way that my husband and more than likely other family members will vote FF in the next election.

AdMMM

nkay1985 wrote: »

I think Waterford would just return 2FF, 1 FG and 1 Labour as we always do. The only potential upset (and it's not unlikely) would be Coffey aking a second FG seat at Kenneally's expense. But there's no second seat for Labour and Halligan wouldn't stand a chance of pulling enough votes from outside his own ward in the city, never mind the county to get within an ass's roar of a seat.

2FF, 1 FG, 1 Labour or 2FG, 1 FF, 1 Labour.

Mostly agree with this.

To expand on it, Labour have no suitable candidate in Waterford City. They also don't seem to be doing much (or at least not have much success) in finding a young replacement for Brian O'Shea. Brian has managed to get past the proverbial post in recent times thanks to his large personal vote and should he decide not to run next time around (something that's been rumoured for quite some time), I can see Labour losing their seat.

I think FF losing a seat is a very likely scenario. I think Kenneallys seat is most at risk as he will be up against the more popular Martin Cullen, although with the expectation of a non-FF led Dail, he'll lose a big chunk of votes from people who only voted for him because he was a Minister. Coffey will be the obvious benefactor from this. I have no idea of his performance in the Seanad but I doubt many people will be thinking of that and will vote based on him not being FF!

If Brian O'Shea doesn't run, then I can see the door open up to Halligan. By an open door I mean an outside chance. It's hard to measure how both leaving the Workers Party and the current mayoralty has affected him outside his ward. Will certainly make it easier to get votes from the county and the fact that David Cullinane is pretty much a spent force will also help him.

On the point of a parachuted candidate, I can't really think of any eligible individuals. Is anyone in Waterford City that well known and liked to be guaranteed a seat if they ran? We don't have any real shining stars in the media or "celebrities". Perhaps one of the hurling team might get some kind of vote but generally I don't think Waterford lends itself well to making it easy to parachute someone in.

jayboi

AdMMM wrote: »

On the point of a parachuted candidate, I can't really think of any eligible individuals. Is anyone in Waterford City that well known and liked to be guaranteed a seat if they ran? We don't have any real shining stars in the media or "celebrities". Perhaps one of the hurling team might get some kind of vote but generally I don't think Waterford lends itself well to making it easy to parachute someone in.

Off this top of my head I would say Keith Barry would be well liked and popular enough to be our George Lee and of course the transition from magic to politics would be breeze, some times they go hand in hand but seriously I think he would be popular enough and could do it but I could never see him making a career in politics.

mike65

Desperate stuff.

Daysha

I think it's nearly certain Cullen and Deasy would hold onto their seats if they ran, that's for sure. The question marks remain over the other two and if either of those seats is changed, then I could see Coffey capitalising. He did very impressively in 2007 and I was one of many people who was impressed with what he had to say when I had the chance to speak to him during the campaign.

I'd be surprised if he doesn't take a seat imo, it just remains to seen whether it's at the expense of a FF downfall (Keneally losing) or O'Shea retiring. Outside that I would expect Cullinane to make some sort of impression, but hopefully not enough to make a serious challenge. Halligan would be an interesting one but like I said earlier he'd need to do some serious canvassing outside the city to stand any chance.

wfman

waterford has never returned the same 4 TDs.if an election was called this year and i had to put money on it id say 2FG 1FF and 1LAB.
cant see ollie wilkinson standing this time so cullen,kenneally and one from the county for ff.
fg would have deasy and coffey so they'd need a city candidate.john cummins would prob be put on the ticket or jim darcy who got 1300 votes last time.
labour will need to run o shea again but they dont seem to have anyone coming through unless seamus ryan runs with him.
SF could turn to brendan mansfield who polled well in the last local elections in dungarvan instead of david cullinane who had a bad showing in local elections.
green party have nobody.mccann got 1000 last time.
workers party have nobody.
only independent candidate of note would be john halligan if he runs.

hardybuck

FF were absolutely wiped out in the Waterford City area in the local elections. Typically cities have more of a swing vote and FG also tend to do better in urban areas so that isn't a massive surprise when you add this to the massive loss of confidence in FF.

Despite the huge anger felt towards them during the local elections, the longer an election is held off the less people seem to be angered by them. Also the rural county vote won't be for changing from FF, no matter how bad things get. This will mean Cullen will retain his seat if he wants it.

Kenneally can forget about it. Not only does he sit on his hands and not open his mouth on pretty much anything, he has some of the highest expenses in the country. Wilkinson might keep some of his rural vote, but he isn't a strong candidate and hopefully he won't get through.

Deasy will walk it, and I'd bet on Coffey sneaking in. I'd expect FG to run Cummins as a city candidate and to give him experience for the future.

I can't see Brian O'Shea going again. Ageing and in poor health at times. The real question here is who will replace him? This could be anyone from any party as things stand. Could be an exciting election whenever it happens.

nkay1985

The only thing that will make this election exciting is if Brian O'Shea doesn't run and that man will have to be on his death bed before that happens. He was in poor health a while before the last general election but was still put on the ticket. The reality is that his name on the ballot with little or no canvassing would get him in as there's a Labour vote down here and he has enormous personal support.

I would expect Cummins to run as a city candidate at Darcy's expense. He's surely being preened as a future realistic candidate.

With regard to Waterford not returning two FF seats, I'd just never say never. Look at the circumstances under which we've returned them in the past few years. Pretty much no local development, the issues with University status, the complete failure on Radiotherapy for the South East etc. So, while it seems unlikely, you could just never be sure.

If Brian O'Shea was to pack it in, then the destination of that fourth seat would be intriguing but other than that, no great surprises.

And I wouldn't be holding my breath for an early General Election either. the Greens have performed sopoorly since entering Government with FF that it's in both their interests to hold off as long as possible.

jayboi

With most of the elected representatives I feel very disheartened by the level of their expenses and feel they've taken us all to the cleaners and as for our "elected representatives" in the Seanad I think the term appointed representatives more accurate.

I haven’t heard anything with regards Wilkinson does anyone know if has retired from politics? FF fielded mostly new candidates in the locals I would wonder if he was still in politics would he not have run as he was a familiar face.
I’ve heard rumblings that Cullen doesn’t intend on running again, it was also in the news today that he’s having back trouble and mightn’t be fit physically to continue as a minister.

Time is FFs greatest friend and possibly Enda Kenny as people outside the party seem to have a disliking for him.

I would imagine a lot of former FF supports will find it hard if not impossible to vote FG so that leaves a real opportunity for some other candidates

I would be extremely interested as to see one year from now just what level of expenses our representatives claim as had their claims been just then there would be little change.

Interestingly if FG gets in the next election they have promised to abolish the Seanad which would spell the end of the Seanad careers of Coffey and Maurice Cummins

wfman

jayboi wrote: »

With most of the elected representatives I feel very disheartened by the level of their expenses and feel they've taken us all to the cleaners and as for our "elected representatives" in the Seanad I think the term appointed representatives more accurate.

I haven’t heard anything with regards Wilkinson does anyone know if has retired from politics? FF fielded mostly new candidates in the locals I would wonder if he was still in politics would he not have run as he was a familiar face.
I’ve heard rumblings that Cullen doesn’t intend on running again, it was also in the news today that he’s having back trouble and mightn’t be fit physically to continue as a minister.

Time is FFs greatest friend and possibly Enda Kenny as people outside the party seem to have a disliking for him.

I would imagine a lot of former FF supports will find it hard if not impossible to vote FG so that leaves a real opportunity for some other candidates

I would be extremely interested as to see one year from now just what level of expenses our representatives claim as had their claims been just then there would be little change.

Interestingly if FG gets in the next election they have promised to abolish the Seanad which would spell the end of the Seanad careers of Coffey and Maurice Cummins

ollie wilkinson failed to get elected to the seanad in 2007.he also failed to get elected in 2009 to the county council.ollie is 66 now so you can forget about him running.

Trotter

I'd love to see some new candidates. Maybe tried and tested business people or just proven to have the smarts to do a good job. Are there any possibilities? Keith Barry impressed me with his passion in the media during his family tragedy, but I don't think he'd want to go for it. Theres got to be others who would be a pleasant surprise to see on a ballot paper.

liogairmhordain

wfman wrote: »

waterford has never returned the same 4 TDs.

not true
martin cullen, austin deasy, brendan kenneally and brian o'shea were elected in 1992 and all 4 were returned in 1997

itsonlywords

deisemum wrote: »

I think FF would be extremely lucky to get 2 seats next time round. Most people that I know to be staunch FFers have said they wouldn't vote FF again.

My husband's family have always been staunch FFers, his uncle is a former FF junior minister and there's no way that my husband and more than likely other family members will vote FF in the next election.

That I feel is representative of most voters here. Either FF are blind, stupid or just ignoring what people feel but there is a big backlash against them coming up. Do they really believe that people in Waterford, a city which suffered more than most cities and counties in Ireland in terms of losses in employment and facilities, have not noticed the fiddles and misuse of public monies by our representatives in the past? Do they think that we do not see the lifestyles that they can lead while the queues stretch from the labour out the Cork Road? Realistically FF have one representative in Waterford and that is poorly performing Minister who goes down the pecking order in FF every slight shuffle. The predicted shuffle in the next days will probably see him lose his portfolio altogether. I asked my daughter who will vote for the first time in the next general election who she will vote for and she said anybody but the Fiddlers Party FF.All belong to me voted FF but now nobody will look at them as they are perceived as being a dishonest party overflowing with crooks. I try and do my bit nationally by slating them every opportunity on places like Politics.ie. We get the representation we deserve if we continiously elect non performers. Time to get some young people with political savvy and intellect and morals like Halligan and Cullinane and youth of all parties except FF who are stained.

jayboi

itsonlywords wrote: »

That I feel is representative of most voters here. Either FF are blind, stupid or just ignoring what people feel but there is a big backlash against them coming up. Do they really believe that people in Waterford, a city which suffered more than most cities and counties in Ireland in terms of losses in employment and facilities, have not noticed the fiddles and misuse of public monies by our representatives in the past? Do they think that we do not see the lifestyles that they can lead while the queues stretch from the labour out the Cork Road? Realistically FF have one representative in Waterford and that is poorly performing Minister who goes down the pecking order in FF every slight shuffle. The predicted shuffle in the next days will probably see him lose his portfolio altogether. I asked my daughter who will vote for the first time in the next general election who she will vote for and she said anybody but the Fiddlers Party FF.All belong to me voted FF but now nobody will look at them as they are perceived as being a dishonest party overflowing with crooks. I try and do my bit nationally by slating them every opportunity on places like Politics.ie. We get the representation we deserve if we continiously elect non performers. Time to get some young people with political savvy and intellect and morals like Halligan and Cullinane and youth of all parties except FF who are stained.

Id agree with a lot of what you've said here I know in my family there would always been a strong FF vote on both sides but now I couldn’t see anyone on both sides voting for them.

I would imagine for a lot of former FF supports they will find it had to make the switch to fine Gael this could be a real opportunity for someone like labour to gain a bit of the middle ground.

I don’t like the idea that any fella can walk in off the street and get elected purely because people think their great, just because you got elected doesn’t mean you’re fit or able to run a country and make decisions the effect peoples lives.
Personally what I would like to see are more people with third level education (preferably from WIT) and some sort of background in economics or even accountancy.

In my own personal opinion I wouldn’t put Sinn Fein and moral in the same sentence and have serious reservations about Halligan I just get this feeling when I read any article about him that he wants to go Robin Hood and take form the rich and give to the poor.

One last thing that gets on my wick is when I see stuff the FF the Republican Party,
Why in this day and age should republican politics have anything to do with how our country is run?
It’s like people voting on whether someone is pro or anti-treaty its madness.

Hoffmans

id say martin will be backing out of the next election.......

Partizan

My prediction after next GE in Waterford -

2 FG (Cummins & Deasy)
1 FF (Kenneally / Cullen or county candidate)
1 Lab (O'Shea or county candidate)

as for the rest, the WP have no high profile candidate this time round, ditto for SF. The Greens probably wont contest and as for Halligan, he hasnt a snowballs chance. He will most likely pull a respectable vote from the city but in the County he will fall flat as he's virtually unknown past the city limits. His best bet could be to join Labour run as their candidiate. If he does that, he's a shoe in.

Sully

Which member of the Cummins family for FG?!

Partizan

Sully wrote: »

Which member of the Cummins family for FG?!

Maurice's son, John who is currently a sitting cllr on Waterford City Council. He will get the city vote.

Sully

Partizan wrote: »

Maurice's son, John who is currently a sitting cllr on Waterford City Council. He will get the city vote.

John is only elected a "wet day" though. If he was to consider running, against an already fairly well known candidate Paudie Coffey, then he would really need to raise a much bigger profile. Possibly in the future, but I cant see him running in the upcoming election as its a bit soon.

nkay1985

Sully wrote: »

John is only elected a "wet day" though. If he was to consider running, against an already fairly well known candidate Paudie Coffey, then he would really need to raise a much bigger profile. Possibly in the future, but I cant see him running in the upcoming election as its a bit soon.

Absolutely. Coffey's been in the public eye a while at this stage and is becoming more and more visible. After a good performance last time out, there's no way they'd be throwing Cummins in ahead of him.

Coffey is almost guaranteed to get elected if the current ill feeling towards the government continues and Kenny doesn't manage to alienate everyone who might consider voting for FG.

To even run Cummins to give him a bit of experience could be a risk because he'd likely pull a decent vote on his name alone. FG probably couldn't risk that. But there's no doubt that he'll end up running not too far into the future if he decides politics is his thing.

Trotter

nkay1985 wrote: »

To even run Cummins to give him a bit of experience could be a risk because he'd likely pull a decent vote on his name alone.

Isn't that exactly what the problem in the country is though? Parochial voting of the local chap because he has the same name as his father?

Surely we should be voting for the best representatives for the people of Waterford, and if Cummins is that man, so be it?

Im tired of us getting the elections wrong, and then moaning about it for the next 4 or 5 years.. then doing the same thing again.

Shouldnt we demand high profile, competant, experienced people to represent us regardless of party and name?

nkay1985

Trotter wrote: »

Isn't that exactly what the problem in the country is though? Parochial voting of the local chap because he has the same name as his father?

Surely we should be voting for the best representatives for the people of Waterford, and if Cummins is that man, so be it?

Im tired of us getting the elections wrong, and then moaning about it for the next 4 or 5 years.. then doing the same thing again.

Shouldnt we demand high profile, competant, experienced people to represent us regardless of party and name?

Oh don't get me wrong, I think politics in this country is a joke. I'm only saying the way it is.

Politics in Ireland isn't geared in such a way that it's easily accessible to the average person who feels they could do a good job. It's all about your family and connections etc. I'd love if there was no such thing as party allegiances and it was just a case of everyone is an independent and votes on new measures as they see fit, not in pacts. But parliament can't work this way either because very little would get done.

Irish politics needs radical reform. On the episode of The Frontline when George Lee resigned, there were two politics lecturers on and they put sforward some interesting statistics comparing us to other parliaments and both had ideas of the type of reform they felt was required. But sure are turkeys ever going to vote for Christmas? We'd need our politicians to be leading this reform which would be the downfall of the vast majority of them so it's just not going to happen.

It's easy to see how people get disillusioned with politics.

Deise Tom

jayboi wrote: »

My prediction
1 FF
1 Lab
1 FG
And the last seat to go to either FG or independent(Halligan)

My prediction would be

2 FG (John Deasy and Paudie Coffey)
1 FF (Brendan Kenneally)
1 Lab (Brian O'Shea)

Halligan would not stand a chance unless he would get in with a massive vote from the city as outside the city he is hardly known and to be honest does not make himself popular either as he only rambles on about the city. If he was interested in going for the Dail he should with a while be talking about activities in the county.

Deise Tom

deisemum wrote: »

I think FF would be extremely lucky to get 2 seats next time round. Most people that I know to be staunch FFers have said they wouldn't vote FF again.

My husband's family have always been staunch FFers, his uncle is a former FF junior minister and there's no way that my husband and more than likely other family members will vote FF in the next election.

For most people saying and doing will be totally different things. Many are saying that they will never vote FF again, but for many of these Talk is cheep.