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March 2010 Boards forecast contest
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Daily data page not updating on the met eireann site this morning so all figures are up the midnight 5th rather than up to midnight last.
March mean temp of our 5 met stations up to the 5th standing at 2.8c, which is 3.3c below the 61-90 normal, so the opening days of March holding onto the cool temps of the preceding winter months.
Update on the annual mean temp trend:
Despite a very slight rise in the annual mean over the last week, we are no where near normal yet. This time last year, the annual mean of our 5 met stations was standing at 4.68c, which was close to the 61-90 normal. This year's figure of 2.22c is still over 2.0c below the norm. The coming 7 days should push up this figure though, but by how much?
Tune in next week to this gripping saga to find out! :pac::P
A brief look at daily max temp averages from the now ceased Birr synoptic station for March:
This data from Birr is a good guide as to what to expect, give or take a couple of decimals, on a daily basis regarding daily maxima during March (data based on the 61-90 average), at any of the 5 met stations used in the competition analysis.
The above chart is interesting. It shows nicely that while there is an obvious upwards trend in mean max temps during March, the rise is not linear, with many ups and downs during the middle section of the month before we see a more sharp upwards trend toward the final few days.
Here are a few stats from that legendary met eireann weather station regarding mean maximum temps during March (based within 61-90 period)
Highest March Daily Max Temperature: 19.7c on the 28th March 1965.
Lowest March Daily Max Temperature: 1.9c on the 1st March 1965
Highest March Mean Monthly Max: 12.3c (+2.5c) in 1961
Lowest March Mean Monthly Max: 8.0c (-1.8c) in 1962
All data c/o Met Eireann0 -
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Just to put extremes of March 1965 into a little more detail.
Chart graphing daily max/min during that month at Birr:
Low of -10.5c at the start of the month, rising to 19.7c in the last week. That is a diurnal range of 30c throughout the entire month! :eek:
Chart for the 2nd March 1965, the date when -10.5c was recorded at Birr:
a direct Arctic feed. I reckon there must have been some snow cover involved in this as well.
Chart for 28th March 1965, the date when 19.7c was reached:
a moist, stable SSW flow over Ireland. Probably would have brought a lot of low cloud in general but where breaks occurred, temps would have shot up, as it obviously did at Birr!
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According to the NCEP, the 365 day period up to the 6th March 2010, temp anomalies are now tending towards near average across Ireland:
Sample:
Claremorris mean departure figure at +0.04c.
other values include Mullingar: -0.18c / Shannon Apt: -0.25c / Dublin Apt: -0.48c / Valentia +0.17c / Belfast Aldergrove: +0.38c.
I would say it is a very, very long time since those figures were achieved!0 -
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Lowest for the month at least -7.3 C, the min reported for Dublin on Monday the 8th, and Gurteen currently at -7 C at 0600h 9th.
For that month of March 1965, I recall it being quite cold in the Great Lakes region where I was then living (and recording the weather as a high school student) ... there was a period of somewhat mild easterly flow when you were having that cold spell, then the rest of the month was colder than average by about 3-4 F deg, with snow at times and almost no rain.
Seems like raging zonality was not a big problem in the spring of 1965.
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Up to midnight last (the 13th), the March combined mean temp of our 5 centrally located met eireann stations is standing at 3.2c, which is around 2.5c below the normal for the period. This figure is expected to rise, significantly, over the next 7 days.
Chart showing mean min temps for the month so far for the 5 met stations used in the competition:
The mean rainfall total of the 5 met stations for this month is currently standing at a shocking 4.2mm, which is just around 12% of what would be normally received in the first 13 day of the month! and interestingly, all of that rain fell in Shannon Airport and Claremorris, with the other 3 met stations used in our analysis recording no rainfall at all this month so far :eek:
On to the annual mean update, and at last, the mean for this year is beginning to show signs of rising a little. Here is how it looks on the graph up to the 13th:
Current values at 2.35c, which is still 2.6c cooler than at this point last year. Up to the 13th March 2009, the value stood at exactly 5.00c, which is close to, or very marginally above, what would be expected in the 61-90 average. The following 7 days in 2009 saw a further increase in daily means, with temps reaching 16c/17c by day, contributing to a 7 day mean of 8.4c; the next 7 days this year will probably have a similar overall mean, although max temps are unlikely to be as high as what was recorded in the same period last year. Whether or not, we should start to see that almost flattened 2010 mean temp line start to buckle significantly upwards this week.
Will post up another report next week to let y'all know the shhhtory!
All data & stats c/o Met Eireann0 -
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March mean value of our 5 met eireann stations standing at 4.7c as of midnight last (the 20th). This is 1.3c below normal for the period, although this is more on the strength of the still below average minima; mean max temps for the month so far are actually hovering close to average. A further rise is expected in this value over the next 7 days.
Looking at the latest annual mean graph for the 5 stations used:
we can see that the annual mean is at last beginning to rise, although given that we are now well established into the year, it will still take a number of weeks for this value to reach near normal levels. As it stands, the current year's value is still around 2.0c below normal, while at this stage last year, the value of 5.31c was a little above the 61-90 norm for the year.
The following 7 days looks to bring around average temperatures over Ireland with any frost being confined to well sheltered inland locations with an increasing risk of rain or showers at times which will be welcome as only 31% of normal rainfall has fallen this month over the 5 met station area to date.
How it is looking for the coming midweek period:
Data & Image Sources: Met Eireann / ECMWF
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Up to the 27th, the March monthly combined mean of our 5 met eireann stations is standing at 5.7c, this 0.4c below normal for the period:
Chart graphing the daily combined mean temp of the 5 central met stations with monthly mean progress included:
The finishing figure will probably work out the same as this, or perhaps a little below with the final few days of March looking to be slightly cooler than average.
On to the annual mean, here is how it is looking up to midnight last (the 27th March):
The last 7 days proved to be warmer than average with a 7 day mean of around 8.0c; this resulted in a sharp rise in the 5 station annual mean. For the first time this year, the figure surpassed the 3.0c mark!
As the chart indicates, we are still around 2.0c cooler than this time last year, which at this stage, was actually around 0.3c warmer than the 61-90 norm.
The rise will continue over the following week although with some cooler than average days forecast over the next few days it may be a slower rise than last week. We shall see!
Data Source: Met Eireann0 -
1 day left and it looks like those who guessed closest to the mean temp this month will be any of the following members:
nacho libre
jdburkedjburke
hellboy99
dasa29
Either of these guys could run away with it, although there is a chance either of them could be just 0.1c out as well
All will be revealed tomorrow! 0 -
M.T will have all the stats later on but regarding the final combined mean temp for March of the 5 central met eireann stations, it finished at 5.5c, which is a little below the 61-90 normal. Mean maxima was close to or a little above normal at all of the 5 stations by a mean of 0.2c, while mean minima was below by 1.5c. Mean minima at Mullingar for March for example was just 0.1c. :eek:
Hellboy, who pick 5.6c guessed the closest. M.T, can I suggest you give him full marks as the final figure of 5.54c had Hellboy out by just 0.01c.
Bar chart of final max/mean temp figures at our 5 met station used in the competition:
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