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Potential Storm - Sunday 28th Feb
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nacho libre wrote: »Has paddy1 gone off to France? is that why he hasn't been posting much of late;)
He must be on the ferry to Brittany
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The 12Z GFS is a big downgrade of the storm Saturday, with the 2nd jetstreak weaker than previously progged, and the surface centre moving out of the left front quadrant as it nears Portugal, consequently filling and taking a more easterly track through central France and into Germany.
The 12Z UKMO still has it as before, a potent sub-970hPa low, therefore on a more northerly track, with its centre clipping Galicia and tracking into northern France and Denmark by Monday 12Z.
With only 18hrs to go before we see the first signs of it forming west of Madeira, there is still some uncertainty with it.
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12Z ECMWF is still progressive on this system, keeping it at 969hPa as it reaches the English Channel Sunday morning, and a little to the right of previous runs. If it were to drift to the left, conditions would be marginal for wintry precipitation in the east, but so far there's no real sign of the models correcting track westwards.
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Madeira and Porto Santo TAFs are giving some strong winds early tomorrow, southerly 30 gusting 50 knots. With a wind like that at Madeira airport, where turbulence can be severe, there'll be no flights landing there, that's for sure! Moderate rain and drizzle forecast for the 24 hours, so hopefully not a repeat of last Saturday.
[FONT=Monospace,Courier]LPMA 260730Z 21004KT 170V240 9999 SCT006 BKN013 17/16 Q1009 RS22002KT 0522004KT 2324006KT[/FONT]
LPMA 260500Z 2606/2706 VRB05KT 9999 SCT015 BKN030
TEMPO 2606/2706 4000 RADZ BR SCT008 BKN013
BECMG 2607/2609 20008KT
BECMG 2612/2614 20017KT
BECMG 2622/2624 20025G35KT
TEMPO 2700/2706 20035G50KT
Meanwhile, the 00Z GFS has the system back as a potent storm in the English channel again after yesterday's 12Z downgrade, but a lot further east than the UKMO. Still some indecision between the models, so still a small chance that it could track more westerly.
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The Portuguese IM are warning of sustained coastal winds of 60-85kmph (Force9-10), with gusts up to 150kmph (93mph) tomorrow in continental Portugal. :eek:Previsão para Sábado, 27 de Fevereiro de 2010
Céu muito nublado ou encoberto, por vezes com abertas para o final
da tarde.
Períodos de chuva por vezes forte, passando gradualmente a regime
de aguaceiros a partir da tarde.
Vento forte (35 a 55 km/h) do quadrante sul, soprando
temporariamente muito forte a excepcionalmente forte (60 a 85 km/h),
com rajadas da ordem dos 150 km/h no litoral e terras altas e
rodando para oeste a partir do final da tarde.
Subida de temperatura.
ESTADO DO MAR
Costa Ocidental: Ondas de sudoeste com 3 a 4 metros, aumentando
temporariamente para 5 a 7 metros.
Temperatura da água do mar: 13/15ºC
Costa Sul: Ondas de sudoeste com 2 metros, aumentando
para 4 a 5 metros.
Temperatura da água do mar: 16ºC
Actualizado a 26 de Fevereiro de 2010 às 10:3 UTC
ALADIN model
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This storm is already looking agressive on satellite,and i think it could be deeper than suggested.
The NAE has it on this path but could eventually skirting closer to south england coasts.
Needs to be watch very closely this one,as it contains lots of moisture and poor old maderia is getting no luck lately all down to our prodical son called the jet stream.0 -
Remember the system is developing in an area with very limited observations between 30-60W, both surface and upper air, so initial discrepancies in the different model analyses will have a bearing on the dynamics of its evolution. We saw yesterday with the GFS that a small change in the jetstream positioning and strength led to a very different system come Sunday lunchtime. It won't really be until we get inside the 24hr timeframe tomorrow that we'll be fairly certain what way it's going to go.
DWD 00Z 300hPa Analysis
GFS 00Z 300hPa Analysis
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Some pretty strong winds in Portugal now as the tightest pressure gradient reaches the coast just north of Lisbon. Cabo Carvoeiro, Cabo Raso and Torres Vedra are showing 10 minute mean speeds of around 50mph, with obviously higher gusts.
Their 00Z ALADIN Hi-REs model has this one bang on the money, showing the tight gradient in that area. Looks like being off the southeast coast of England tomorrow lunchtime as a potent 963hPa. Could be disruption to airports in London, Brussels, Amsterdam, Paris.
Cabo Carvoerio
Cabo Raso
Torres Vedra
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Not my analysis.
Sat Imagery - WV imagery shows Shapiro-Keyser Model with limited cold front and most activity on Warm front / occlusion process. Developing Cold conveyer is located north of the low centre (note convection elements feeding into this belt) Developing cloud hook looks set to emerge from area around 43N 11W at 15Z. Met 9 Rapid Scan Imagery indicates the development well. Cloud hook will need watching for warming as CSI is released from growing cooling tops into CCB and warming through cloud tip. Sting Jet Forms to SE of this area.0 -
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