Longshot Value, 100 bets

jkelly85

poor over the last cost it, but great call again so unlucky

longshotvalue

Story So Far after 20 bets

BSP + 32.63
Advised + 42.5

longshotvalue

21 Or Jaune Sand 2:30, Ground Trip Handicap Mark all coming together. Betfair 7.0

1 Point Win

longshotvalue

22 Pistolet Noir Sand 3:05, Get the allowences here trip should suit and recapturing his win over barizan would make him value Betfair 32win 6.4 Place

1 Point Win 1 Point Place

longshotvalue

23. STONEY´S TREASURE Sand 2:00, bottom weight, last run poor, but decent previously.. Seems Overpriced Betfair 18.5 w 4.5 Pl


1 Point win 1 point Place [URL="javascript:void(0)"][/URL]

POINTBREAK

aidankkk wrote: »

14. Cornish SET , Cross Country Cheltenham, Should improve witht eh better ground, and may have been trained with this in mind, Nicholls does not tend to keep them with no reason.. Betfair 75 Win No Place Market Yet, 33/1 Bookies


.5 Point Win .5 Point Place

15. A New Story, Cross Country Cheltenham, Proven course form, and with paying 4 places, seems value to place, has 2 decent runs this year. Betfair 75 Win No Place Market Yet. 40/1 Bookies

.5 Point Win .5 Point Place

Not really a race for big priced winners though, but decent value bets I spose. You like anything else at Cheltenham?

winslow

aidankkk wrote: »

14. Cornish SET , Cross Country Cheltenham, Should improve witht eh better ground, and may have been trained with this in mind, Nicholls does not tend to keep them with no reason.. Betfair 75 Win No Place Market Yet, 33/1 Bookies


.5 Point Win .5 Point Place

15. A New Story, Cross Country Cheltenham, Proven course form, and with paying 4 places, seems value to place, has 2 decent runs this year. Betfair 75 Win No Place Market Yet. 40/1 Bookies

.5 Point Win .5 Point Place

I noticed you had put in a few names over the past week or so. Would you be able to make a list of the horses you fancy over the festival and share it before the festival starts?

I think a few of your long odds horses, mixed in with some favourites, make a few doubles and trebles, and you never know what might happen.

Stirred, not shaken!

longshotvalue

aidankkk wrote: »

17 Punjabi Cheltenham Champion hurdle.. Betfair 9.8 Win, almost 9/1 about a repeat with the race cutting up as we speak, clearly should be priced lower than Zaynar.. Looks like the Value

2 Points Win

Still value i think at 8.0

longshotvalue

24 KICKS FOR FREE , Chel 2:40, looked to be staying on last time and should be better on good ground, has course form, and is on a decent mark. Betfair 37win 6.2pl

1Point win 1Point Place

longshotvalue

25 FIULIN , 1:30 Chelt, Shot in the dark here, very decent flat horse, whose first and only run over hurdles was eyecatching (even tough he was last) over to far and on poor ground, good ground might help.
.5 Points EW Betfred 200/1
26 Fosters Cross 2:05 Chelt, just looks to big to place, may not be that far behind other contenders to place. Betfair Place 18.5. Looked decent until fall last time at course, has won on decent ground.
.5 points Place

POINTBREAK

aidankkk wrote: »

25 FIULIN , 1:30 Chelt, Shot in the dark here, very decent flat horse, whose first and only run over hurdles was eyecatching (even tough he was last) over to far and on poor ground, good ground might help.
.5 Points EW Betfred 200/1
26 Fosters Cross 2:05 Chelt, just looks to big to place, may not be that far behind other contenders to place. Betfair Place 18.5. Looked decent until fall last time at course, has won on decent ground.
.5 points Place

FIULIN is a strange one, not as a tip but in the sense that he was always being entered in Group races and never did that well in them. He was trained by Marcus Botti then and is now with Evan Williams and again is being asked a very big question on only his 2nd run over hurdles, even though its a different owner and Trainer........... he must look like a very good horse at home.
Worth keeping an eye on.

longshotvalue

POINTBREAK wrote: »

FIULIN is a strange one, not as a tip but in the sense that he was always being entered in Group races and never did that well in them. He was trained by Marcus Botti then and is now with Evan Williams and again is being asked a very big question on only his 2nd run over hurdles, even though its a different owner and Trainer........... he must look like a very good horse at home.
Worth keeping an eye on.

Yeah not really a tip either, really hoping Dunguib wins in style, but judging by his last run, he may have something that decent ground and fast pace will help. He did run well last time before petering out in heavy going over 2:4.. His flat rating is one of the best in the race and at a huge price he might give us a run.. Min bet for interest a huge odds..

longshotvalue

15. A New Story, Cross Country Cheltenham, Proven course form, and with paying 4 places, seems value to place, has 2 decent runs this year. Betfair 75 Win No Place Market Yet. 40/1 Bookies


Now 38w 6.1pl
.5 Point Win .5 Point Place

day saver...

glanman

aidankkk wrote: »

15. A New Story, Cross Country Cheltenham, Proven course form, and with paying 4 places, seems value to place, has 2 decent runs this year. Betfair 75 Win No Place Market Yet. 40/1 Bookies


Now 38w 6.1pl
.5 Point Win .5 Point Place

day saver...

Aidan I had him backed too thanks to your tip. only a small bit on it but nice surprise as I only noticed now that I had it backed. My mate had €20 e/w on it at 25/1 because he is going out with the jockey's sister!

Cheers for the tips mate, your stats are very impressive so far, have backed a few of you winners! best of luck with the rest of the festival and after.

POINTBREAK

aidankkk wrote: »

14. Cornish SET , Cross Country Cheltenham, Should improve witht eh better ground, and may have been trained with this in mind, Nicholls does not tend to keep them with no reason.. Betfair 75 Win No Place Market Yet, 33/1 Bookies


.5 Point Win .5 Point Place

15. A New Story, Cross Country Cheltenham, Proven course form, and with paying 4 places, seems value to place, has 2 decent runs this year. Betfair 75 Win No Place Market Yet. 40/1 Bookies

.5 Point Win .5 Point Place

Excellent tipping. Segal tipped it today as well.

pizzor

aidan are u tom segal?? lol

longshotvalue

27. Naiad Du Misselot 4:00 Chel, back to course race form and mark, trainer happy with him looks set out for this Betfair 36 win 8.1p

1Point Win 1 Point Place

longshotvalue

28 Deep Purple 2:40, good ground horse, who is one of the highest rated in the race, overpriced poor run last time on suitable ground and bled.. Betfair 26w 7pl.

1Point win 2 Point Place.

29 Buena Vista 2:05,again good ground horse, second in this last year of the same mark 5th year before... Betfair 23w 5.7 pl

1 Point win 1 point place


30 Cape Tribulation 3:20, looks overpriced ran well this year over shorter distances, ran very well against zaynar. Betfair 130w 13.5pl

.5 Point Win 1 Point Place

longshotvalue

31 The Sawyer, 4:00, form of last race looks really good, jockey get 7lbs off which he didnt get last time, might be hard to pass Betfair 25w 5.1pl

1 Point Win 2 Points Place

longshotvalue

32 Ma Yahab 4:40 Chelt, Very good run on good ground 3 runs ago and 2 decent runs lately, looks overpriced and off a decent mark.. Betfair 29win 4.7 Place


1 Point Win 1 Point Place

longshotvalue

33 The Midnight Club , 1:30. Great run in chelt last year over hurdles on decent ground, looks overpriced.. Betfair w 23 pl 4.7

1 Point win 1 Point place

glanman

aidankkk wrote: »

33 The Midnight Club , 1:30. Great run in chelt last year over hurdles on decent ground, looks overpriced.. Betfair w 23 pl 4.7

1 Point win 1 Point place

Placed third, finished strongly and came up the hill well but copper bleu got a great 2nd wind!

jkelly85

Buena Vista get in great stuff

glanman

aidankkk wrote: »

29 Buena Vista 2:05,again good ground horse, second in this last year of the same mark 5th year before... Betfair 23w 5.7 pl

1 Point win 1 point place

Aidan strikes again, got it at 22 on betfair:) went off at 16/1.

smelltheglove

great tipping again aidan in the 2.05 beuna vista routed the lot of them from the front

slothrop

If not, great work KKK anyways

longshotvalue

29 Buena Vista 2:05,again good ground horse, second in this last year of the same mark 5th year before... Betfair 23w 5.7 pl

1 Point win 1 point place WON Superb ride

33 The Midnight Club , 1:30. Great run in chelt last year over hurdles on decent ground, looks overpriced.. Betfair w 23 pl 4.7

1 Point win 1 Point place Placed 3rd

32 Ma Yahab 4:40 Chelt, Very good run on good ground 3 runs ago and 2 decent runs lately, looks overpriced and off a decent mark.. Betfair 29win 4.7 Place

1 Point Win 1 Point Place Placed 4th

Scouser

I had Buena Vista at 16/1, marvelous race!

Ma Yahab got me a few bob placed, deffo a horse to keep an eye on.

best ride of the day for me was Sunnyhillboy. was just off the back marker for most of the race yet he finished in a storming fashion and could well have pipped the winner had the race had a few more furlongs!

longshotvalue

33. Dee Ee Williams 2:05, Right trip ground today, and has won over c&d, poor run last time over too far, looks decent mark. Betfair 31win 8.6 Place

1 Point Win 1 Point Place

34. Kennell Hill 2:40, Shot in the dark, has been running well against class horses, possibly without trying.. Looks overpriced in case he decided to try today. Betfair 110win 18.5 Place

.5 Point win 1 Point Place

longshotvalue

35 Balthazar King 4:40, Good course form, best jockey, looks a decent mark. Betfair 21 win 5.2 Place

1 Point Win 1 Point Place

glanman

aidankkk wrote: »

34. Kennell Hill 4:40, Shot in the dark, has been running well against class horses, possibly without trying.. Looks overpriced in case he decided to try today. Betfair 110win 18.5 Place

.5 Point win 1 Point Place

FYI, its in the 2.40

longshotvalue

36 Tataniano 5:15, Super jumper who wants good ground, is priced too big just because Ruby is making a mistake. Betfair 13.0

2 Points Win

longshotvalue

glanman wrote: »

FYI, its in the 2.40

Typo thanks:)

glanman

aidankkk wrote: »

33. Dee Ee Williams 2:05, Right trip ground today, and has won over c&d, poor run last time over too far, looks decent mark. Betfair 31win 8.6 Place

1 Point Win 1 Point Place

3rd. Ran well enough, thought it was going to make it 2 out but went that bit too soon maybe? stayed on well but don't think it would have had enough speed for the winner though either way.

Backed at 30 to win and 8.4 place, SP was 20/1

thesandeman

With you and Tom Segal picking him he had to be somewhere. Thanks again.

Gavin "shels"

aidankkk wrote: »

34. Kennell Hill 2:40, Shot in the dark, has been running well against class horses, possibly without trying.. Looks overpriced in case he decided to try today. Betfair 110win 18.5 Place

.5 Point win 1 Point Place

Placed 3rd. Fair play man.

glanman

aidankkk wrote: »

34. Kennell Hill 2:40, Shot in the dark, has been running well against class horses, possibly without trying.. Looks overpriced in case he decided to try today. Betfair 110win 18.5 Place

.5 Point win 1 Point Place

Kennell Hill 3rd!!!

thesandeman

Just a heads up for anyone doing ew in the last two races: Celtic are paying 5 places and money back if 2nd in the 4.40 and Boyles are paying 5 places in the 5.15.

longshotvalue

aidankkk wrote: »

33. Dee Ee Williams 2:05, Right trip ground today, and has won over c&d, poor run last time over too far, looks decent mark. Betfair 31win 8.6 Place

1 Point Win 1 Point Place Placed:D

34. Kennell Hill 2:40, Shot in the dark, has been running well against class horses, possibly without trying.. Looks overpriced in case he decided to try today. Betfair 110win 18.5 Place

.5 Point win 1 Point Place

Placed :eek::D:D

35 Balthazar King 4:40, Good course form, best jockey, looks a decent mark. Betfair 21 win 5.2 Place Fell

1 Point Win 1 Point Place

36 Tataniano 5:15, Super jumper who wants good ground, is priced too big just because Ruby is making a mistake. Betfair 13.0 Non Runner :mad:

2 Points Win

thesandeman

Balthazar King is worth watching out for next time. He was backed into 10s before the off. I didnt see any of the main tipsters mentioning him so it must have been the connections backing it.

Scouser

had kennell hill e/w at 66/1!!

aidankkk, any outsiders for cork or curragh etc tmorow?

longshotvalue

Story So Far after 37 bets

BSP + 83.475
Advised + 115.75

longshotvalue

thesandeman wrote: »

Balthazar King is worth watching out for next time. He was backed into 10s before the off. I didnt see any of the main tipsters mentioning him so it must have been the connections backing it.

Think your right, probably up for something in aintree..

longshotvalue

38. ORMELLO , Kelso 3:40, back chasing, has some decent course & Distance form, back from hurdling, looks overpiced, a lot of the other runners have questions about them in this race.. Betfair 19.5 Win 7.2 Place

1 Point win 1 Point Place

longshotvalue

aidankkk wrote: »

38. ORMELLO , Kelso 3:40, back chasing, has some decent course & Distance form, back from hurdling, looks overpiced, a lot of the other runners have questions about them in this race.. Betfair 19.5 Win 7.2 Place

1 Point win 1 Point Place

3rd dam these 7 runner races...

TheMilkyPirate

aidankkk wrote: »

3rd dam these 7 runner races...

Ran and jumped well though just got outpaced in the end, Jockey looked like he didn't want to win!

longshotvalue

baraca wrote: »

Ran and jumped well though just got outpaced in the end, Jockey looked like he didn't want to win!

No minimum of effort id say, just let them get away and then finished well, one for next time hopefully at a decent price

Nulty

aidankkk wrote: »

3rd dam these 7 runner races...

Is it not still 3 places on Betfair?

longshotvalue

Nulty wrote: »

Is it not still 3 places on Betfair?

no thats only when there are 8 declaired and there is a non runner after..

Nulty

I don't know why but I assumed that was the situation - a nonner