When is the next general election?

mehmeh12

Anyone know?

mike65

Anytime from 3 weeks to 28 months or so.

mehmeh12

mike65 wrote: »

Anytime from 3 weeks to 28 months or so.

I dont understand-how is this time period determined?

Liam Byrne

Official date is 2012

Many of us are hoping that it'll be long before that.

mehmeh12

Liam Byrne wrote: »

Official date is 2012

Many of us are hoping that it'll be long before that.

Yeh myself included. Why do we have to wait another 2 years? I dont even know if i will be living here then!

PeakOutput

the goverment can keep going until 2012 if they stick together

if it falls apart it could happen at any time really

mehmeh12

PeakOutput wrote: »

the goverment can keep going until 2012 if they stick together

if it falls apart it could happen at any time really

Define fall apart...

Liam Byrne

mehmeh12 wrote: »

Define fall apart...

Whenever ethics and acccountability take precedence over staying in power at any cost.

mehmeh12

Liam Byrne wrote: »

Whenever ethics and acccountability take precedence over staying in power at any cost.

I guess we'll be waiting 2 years then.

DrumSteve

it'll be when FG get rid of Enda Kenny.

mikester2006

I'd predict this summer, probably Friday 14th May. Its the "least worst time" for Fianna Fail to go and try and minimise their seat losses.

The recession is going to get a lot worse next year for many people, and Fianna Fail won't want to be the ones taking all the hard decisions and touch choices. They want to fight the election against Enda Kenny (rather than chance FG changing to a new leader), and they want the new coalition to last 3 or 4 years in time for FF to regroup and get back into power in 2014/15 to be in office for the 1916 centeneray celebrations.

The backbench FF TD's know the next election is lost, its now all about minimising those losses.

dvpower

mikester2006 wrote: »

I'd predict this summer, probably Friday 14th May. Its the "least worst time" for Fianna Fail to go and try and minimise their seat losses.

Why Friday 14th May?

Nehaxak

It'll be 2012 unless FG and their associated henchmen manage to suceed with their modern day coup d'état attempts.

gandalf

dvpower wrote: »

Why Friday 14th May?

I doubt it will be a Friday, more than likely to be a Wednesday/Thursday around the time of college exams to ensure a proportion of University Students won't be able to vote as they will be the most likely to vote against FF.

johngalway

Jim McDaid was on the radio yesterday evening, on George Hook I think. He said his honest opinion was that this Government wouldn't see out the year.

Politically I think there's a worry for the opposition, as said above, that things will get worse next year and if they win an election they'll get the blame for making tough choices. It's not too far fetched thinking.

As a voter for the opposition if that plays out I would hope people remember who got us into this mess.

I'd figure a summer election to be likely if one is to come this year. People are generally in a better humour when the weather is good.

At the moment the Government are staggering from one crisis to another.

Liam Byrne

johngalway wrote: »

Politically I think there's a worry for the opposition, as said above, that things will get worse next year and if they win an election they'll get the blame for making tough choices. It's not too far fetched thinking.

It's impossible to not wonder with the amount of fiascos and revelations lately (married with the corruption and incompetence to date) whether FF have copped this too.....

...hand over to another party as the mess really starts to stink in the hope of riding back in again as soon as the new Government starts to stabilise the ship.

It's happened a few times before, and I genuinely think that that's the way they're thinking.....they're just waiting to see who blinks first, so that they can claim that the Greens or whoever "gave up" and jeopardised "all the tough decisions, just as we were getting back on track and all, y'know...." :rolleyes: .

johngalway wrote: »

As a voter for the opposition if that plays out I would hope people remember who got us into this mess.

You wouldn't have to be a "voter for the opposition" to hope that!

trapsagenius

Liam Byrne wrote: »

It's impossible to not wonder with the amount of fiascos and revelations lately (married with the corruption and incompetence to date) whether FF have copped this too.....

...hand over to another party as the mess really starts to stink in the hope of riding back in again as soon as the new Government starts to stabilise the ship.

It's happened a few times before, and I genuinely think that that's the way they're thinking.....they're just waiting to see who blinks first, so that they can claim that the Greens or whoever "gave up" and jeopardised "all the tough decisions, just as we were getting back on track and all, y'know...." :rolleyes:

Can you give me a few examples of when this happened?The only time I can think of is 1951...

Nehaxak

johngalway wrote: »

As a voter for the opposition if that plays out I would hope people remember who got us into this mess.

Ah yeah but sure wasn't that always going to be the excuse no matter what.
If FG/Labour had any balls on them at all when they get into government (before 2012 or otherwise) the first thing they'd do is hold a full and transparent criminal investigation into the dealings of FF, the developers and the banks.

...but that's not going to happen now is it ?

So, the fallback and the typical Irish "we can't be arsed" mentallity will divert attention and public opinion away from themselves on to others by just proclaiming "Uh not our fault, FF and the Greens done this, nothing we can do now".

Whatever opp party promises a full and transparent criminal investigation into the past dealings of FF/Greens with the developers and the banks will get my vote, I'd even vote FG and hang a poster of Enda Kenny on my wall if they promise something like that.

johngalway

No it's likely not going to happen. It should happen IMO. I tell you one thing, I won't vote for any of the current Government parties to praise them for the job they did. They created a dangerous bubble that popped dramatically and they need to be held to account for that.

People are very fickle, I don't think what I put forth was an excuse really. Obama was going to change the world wasn't he, all he done was promise more than the usual sun, moon and stars. And now he's not short of falling flat on his face.

If you inherit something, which is what a future different Government would do, then you inherit it's pro's and it's con's (hmm was that a good word to use). What people have to bear in mind NOW is that there's no magic solution to the problems we face.

But, we can make a start by fecking out the shower that have gotten us here. To get the message that what they have done I think FF and their associates need a long spell in the wilderness.

I can't say whether FG would be better. I honestly can't see how they'd be worse, starting from the same base line.

Years ago in the UK the Tories screwed up that country. So they voted Labour in, and hated the Tories, the snobs from Eaton. Now? They hate Brown and Liebour.

We can't keep electing FF and rewarding them for what they have and are doing to this country. I don't think it's a good idea to have any particular party in Govt for a long long time, I think that harms countries not benefits them.

No one is perfect, not Kenny or Gilmore. But, some people need reminding that they're not entitled to their position simply because of the party they chose to join. If the Irish people believe that they are, well, we're no better than any other one party system are we.

bijapos

Nehaxak wrote: »

If FG/Labour had any balls on them at all when they get into government (before 2012 or otherwise) the first thing they'd do is hold a full and transparent criminal investigation into the dealings of FF, the developers and the banks.

...but that's not going to happen now is it ?

No it isn't going to happen. It's also called shooting yourself in the foot, as FG (and in a lot of cases Lab) are also directly responsible for voting in the rezonings that led to this crisis. Also never heard FG stand up the last decade and give out warnings that this was all unsustainable. On the contrary they wanted even more tax cuts and higher spending. If FG had led the government the last 10 years we would probably be just as deep in the sh1te as we are now.

MightyMuncher

Richard Bruton (now the only trained economist in the Dail) has made numerous statements in the house regarding the lack of sustainability in the economy in Ireland but clearly you didn't want to hear that.

For further reading see: www.oireachtas.ie

skearon

mehmeh12 wrote: »

Anyone know?

Should be May 2012

Even more likely now that FG's dirty tricks have backfired on them, which has resulted in the coalition parties both becoming more determined to implement their programme for Government, and therefore ensure economic recovery.

Liam Byrne

skearon wrote: »

Even more likely now that FG's dirty tricks have backfired on them, which has resulted in the coalition parties both becoming more determined to implement their programme for Government, and therefore ensure economic recovery.

What "dirty tricks" would those be, from your viewpoint ? :rolleyes:

Did FG cast slurs about other election candidates ?

FF shooting the messenger, as usual....

It shows just how out-of-touch that they are......they vote "confidence" for members who choose to perform unacceptable actions.

Hopefully it'll be May 2010.......if not, we can pray that that 2012 armageddon prediction is true, because they'll have us well screwed by then (while still allowing bankers to earn €600,000)

ninty9er

Nehaxak wrote: »

Whatever opp party promises a full and transparent criminal investigation into the past dealings of FF/Greens with the developers and the banks will get my vote, I'd even vote FG and hang a poster of Enda Kenny on my wall if they promise something like that.

I find it very amusing that people think such an investigation would find massive corruption and criminal dealings before it is even an idea.

johngalway wrote: »

We can't keep electing FF and rewarding them for what they have and are doing to this country. I don't think it's a good idea to have any particular party in Govt for a long long time, I think that harms countries not benefits them.

Being in government too long certainly harms a party itself. The Fianna Fáil organisation needs a lot of work, and could really do with a leader that has time to spend on it rather than the country. But then again, each party creates a manifesto for each election, and regardless of what has been done, unless there is any major reason to believe that they don't intend to implement it ceteris paribus and you agree with it more than others, then you should vote for that party. Whether it has been in government for 3 years or 30.

skearon wrote: »

the coalition parties both becoming more determined to implement their programme for Government, and therefore ensure economic recovery.

That's the major issue here. Nobody's walking while the programme for government is in motion.

Liam Byrne wrote: »

.......if not, we can pray that that 2012 armageddon prediction is true, because they'll have us well screwed by then (while still allowing bankers to earn €600,000)

Don't shoot the messenger here, but go out and buy yourself a share in each of the banks and speak against these salaries, they do, after all, require approval at a General Meeting. It's not like it's coming from the NAMA bonds, they're not cash.

We did not SPEND billions on the banks, billions have been loaned to the banks in order to ensure that they have money in their ATMs when you or I want to get our wages, if you don't understand that by now, you never will.

Liam Byrne

ninty9er wrote: »

Don't shoot the messenger here, but go out and buy yourself a share in each of the banks and speak against these salaries

You're joking, right ?

Invest some of my now-scarce money with a crowd that can't even manage their own business properly ?

Anyway, that's irrelevant, because courtesy of FF I am a shareholder. It's probably too much to expect them to protect my interests, though.

ninty9er wrote: »

We did not SPEND billions on the banks, billions have been loaned to the banks in order to ensure that they have money in their ATMs when you or I want to get our wages, if you don't understand that by now, you never will.

So it's a necessary evil, I get that. So the blind eye that was turned by FF and their Financial Regulator is damage done, I get that. So banks lied about their balance sheets, I get that......"we are where we are" and all that.

The fact is, though, that if you go running to get bailed out and get a "loan", you'll be asked to ensure that you aren't spending ridiculous sums before someone agrees to give you that loan.

The Government should have said "OK - we'll [reluctantly] bail you out, but here are the conditions........."

They didn't.

And the old argument about needing to pay fortunes in order to get "good people" has also been shot through; we pay the fortunes, and we still got incompetent and corrupt idiots.

Tommy Bateman

Ah sure them boys in Fine Gael and Labour talk greatly about what they can achieve for national economy, but sure wouldn't you only be half suspicious half the time of all the hyperbole they do be sproutin in the opposition.

Now as a fourth generation FF man myself, I have to admit i've been a bit dissapointed myself over some of them in the current cabinet, but I wouldn't hold it against the party as a whole. Don't throw the baby out with the bath water as we say down here, sure why would you kick them out just to replace them with an iffy opposition, when you can be guaranteed ministers like Lenny, Cowen and Cullen. Sure don't be listening to all that rubbish, the sindo gives the better side of the news, and more trutfully too.

Liam Byrne

Tommy Bateman wrote: »

Don't throw the baby out with the bath water as we say down here

Don't know what planet "down here" is, but there is no baby. There's a turd.

Tommy Bateman wrote: »

sure why would you kick them out just to replace them with an iffy opposition,

Because iffy and all as the opposition is, at least they can't be as horrifically bad.

Tommy Bateman wrote: »

the sindo gives the better side of the news, and more trutfully too.

You've a strange definition of the word "truth", because lying through their teeth and manufacturing "news" and OTT headlines is the precise reason I stopped buying the "Sindo".

I'd put more faith in something I read in a red-top, TBH (and I don't read them!).

bijapos

MightyMuncher wrote: »

Richard Bruton (now the only trained economist in the Dail) has made numerous statements in the house regarding the lack of sustainability in the economy in Ireland but clearly you didn't want to hear that.

For further reading see: www.oireachtas.ie

Sorry, but throwing up a link like that is pretty pointless, try being more specific. Typing Richard Bruton and sustainability into the search engine comes up with nothing on the economy pre-mid 2008.

dan_d

Do we really have to wait til 2012? Why was I hearing on the radio this morning that since the "GE was looming", they were looking at bringing in more regulation for posters and cable ties. Is that actual looming, or journalistic looming (anything from 1 month to 5 years)?

skearon

dan_d wrote: »

Do we really have to wait til 2012? Why was I hearing on the radio this morning that since the "GE was looming", they were looking at bringing in more regulation for posters and cable ties. Is that actual looming, or journalistic looming (anything from 1 month to 5 years)?

Under the Constitution the maximum length of a Dáil session is 5 years, therefore the Government can continue in office until May 2012

However it can at any stage decide to go to the country and call a general election.

As both Government parties are determined to finish their programme for Government, I suspect it will run its full term, especially as important economic decisions have to be made.

Sulmac

skearon wrote: »

Under the Constitution the maximum length of a Dáil session is 5 years, therefore the Government can continue in office until May 2012

However it can at any stage decide to go to the country and call a general election.

As both Government parties are determined to finish their programme for Government, I suspect it will run its full term, especially as important economic decisions have to be made.

The Constitution actually states the Dáil session is seven years max, but it can be reduced by Statute (which it has been, to five years).

scr123

Curious. when Labour walked out of government in 1994 could Reynolds have called a general election ? Or had he no choice but to allow a new government be formed ?

Sulmac

scr123 wrote: »

Curious. when Labour walked out of government in 1994 could Reynolds have called a general election ? Or had he no choice but to allow a new government be formed ?

We're getting well into Constitutional law here!

Reynolds himself couldn't call a general election, he would have had to ask the President (Robinson) for one. Had he still had the confidence of the Dáil, she would have had to accept it.

However, he had lost the support he needed in the Dáil, so it was purely up to Robinson on whether or not to have one - there was rumour she would have refused.

So, in short - yes and no to both questions. There could have been an election had Robinson allowed for there to be one, but if she didn't another government would have had to be formed (which happened anyway).