Archie's Mythbusters: Episode 1

Peyton Manning

Having been given 2 warnings here over the past 4 days, I have decided to do some community service and give back to the soccer forum here. To do this, Im going to start a weekly (and by weekly, I mean when I can be bothered) episode of Mythbusters - that is, exposing football's frequently used clichés, stereotypes and musings. Is it a game of two halves? Do these things even themselves out over a season? Did Liam Miller exist? These are possibly some of the topics I might examine should my interest in this series live past tomorrow night.

*WARNING* Long read, a.k.a Boring Sh!te ahead...

This week/month/year's episode is....

When is the best time to play Manchester United?

One of the lads who used to post here mentioned on another forum how United owe a lot of their poor results this season to games coming immediately after our European exertions. Okay, anybody who knows anything about football knows that United playing crap is purely down to the poor design of our away kits, but lets entertain this European exhaustion idea for a while. Im gonna take the last 2 seasons as examples to look at because, at 20 matches, its a nice even number for me to sample.

Below, are Manchester United's European fixtures for the last 2 seasons listed in a nice powder blue font. In the sultry red font that follows is our next immediate game. I have only accounted for full time scores at 90 or 120 minutes, and not included penalty shootouts (either way, for penalty shootouts in these fixtures, United's record is 1 win and 1 loss, so they would cancel each other out anyway). Here we go. Im also aware that the maths behind this could be torn apart by someone who actually knows what they're talking about, but sure that never stopped the "always give 110%" brigade...

2009/2010

15th September Besiktas 0-1 Manchester United ECL
20th September Manchester United 4-3 Man City EPL

30th September Manchester United 2-1 Wolfsburg ECL
03rd October Manchester United 2-2 Sunderland EPL

21st October CSKA Moscow 0-1 Manchester United ECL
25th October Liverpool 2-0 Manchester United EPL

03rd November Manchester United 3-3 CSKA Moscow ECL
08th November Chelsea 1-0 Manchester United EPL

25th November Manchester United 0-1 Besiktas ECL
28th November Portsmouth 1-4 Manchester United EPL

08th December Wolfsburg 1-3 Manchester United ECL
12th December Manchester United 0-1 Aston Villa EPL

16th February Milan 2-3 Manchester United ECL
20th February Everton 3-1 Manchester United EPL


2008/2009

29th August Manchester United 1-2 Zenit St Petersburg ESC
13th September Liverpool 2-1 Manchester United EPL

17th September Manchester United 0-0 Villarreal ECL
20th September Chelsea 1-1 Manchester United EPL

30th September AaB 0 Manchester United 3 ECL
04th October Blackburn 0-2 Manchester United EPL

21st October Manchester United 3-0 Celtic ECL
25th October Everton 1-1 Manchester United EPL

05th November Celtic 1-1 Manchester United ECL
08th November Arsenal 2-1 Manchester United EPL

25th November Villarreal 0-0 Manchester United ECL
30th November Man City 0-1 Manchester United EPL

10th December Manchester United 2-2 AaB ECL
13th December Tottenham 0-0 Manchester United EPL

24th February Inter Milan 0-0 Manchester United ECL
01st March Manchester United 0-0 Tottenham Hotspur CC

11th March Manchester United 2-0 Inter Milan ECL
14th March Manchester United 1-4 Liverpool EPL

07th April Manchester United 2-2 FC Porto ECL
11th April Sunderland 1-2 Manchester United EPL

14th April FC Porto 0-1 Manchester United ECL
19th April Manchester United 0-0 Everton FAC

29th April Manchester United 1-0 Arsenal ECL
02nd May Middlesborough 0-2 Manchester United EPL

05th May Arsenal 1-3 Manchester United ECL
10th May Manchester United 2-0 Manchester City


Totals:

Played: 20 (100%)
Won: 7 (35%)
Drawn: 6 (30%)
Lost: 7 (35%)

If all games played immediately after European ties had 3 points at stake (i.e. treating cup matches as league matches) then our points summary would be:

Points Available: 60
Points Won: 27
Points Dropped: 33

Whether you are a Man Utd fan or not, you must admit that these figures are not representative of how the club perform over a whole season. If we extrapolate these figures to a 38 game regular season and also this season's current 28 games (i.e. apply the same won, drawn and loss percentages to imagine United performing in every game as they would after a European tie) here is how United would have performed/would be performing over the last 1 and a half years (the 2 seasons we are examining):

Note: Due to mathematical restraints, 1 game will always be void of a result, so I will chalk that extra game down as a draw to be fair.

2009/2010:
1. Chelsea.......P: 28.....W: 19.....D: 4.....L: 5.....Pts:61
2. Arsenal
3. Man City
4. Tottenham
5. Liverpool
6. Aston Villa...P: 26.....W: 12.....D: 9......L: 5.....Pts: 45
7. Everton.......P:26......W: 10.....D: 8......L: 8....Pts: 38
7. Man Utd......P: 28.....W: 9.....D: 10......L: 9.....Pts: 37

2008/2009:
1. Liverpool......P: 38.....W: 25.....D: 11.....L: 2.....Pts: 86
2. Chelsea
3. Arsenal
4. Everton
5. Aston Villa....P: 38.....W: 17......D: 11.....L: 10.....Pts: 62
6. Fulham........P: 38.....W: 14......D: 11.....L: 13......Pts: 53
6. Man Utd.......P: 38.....W: 13......D: 12.....L: 13.....Pts: 51


Now I think its safe to assume that United dont perform like this on a regular basis, and we have already seen their poor performance percentages after European ties, so lets examine both ties in further, that is, the European tie and the following fixture:


Any Fixture After Home European Match:
Played: 9 (100%)
Won: 3 (33%)
Drawn: 4 (44%)
Lost: 2 (22%)

Any Fixture After Away European Match:
Played: 11 (100%)
Won: 5 (45%)
Drawn: 2 (18%)
Lost: 4 (36%)

Interestingly enough, United have a greater chance of winning if they've played away, but they have a far less chance of taking points from a game if they've played away from home in Europe too. Okay, so we've established that you want to face United after an away European tie - you have a better chance of picking up something. Lets look at how they performed in these European matches (I'll throw in the home European ties for sh!ts and giggles..)

Home Fixture After Home European Match:
Played: 2 (100%)
Won: 0 (0%)
Drawn: 1 (50%)
Lost: 1 (50%)

Home Fixture After Away European Match:
Played: 4 (100%)
Won: 2 (50%)
Drawn: 1 (25%)
Lost: 1 (25%)


Here's what we are really interested in....


Away Fixture After Home European Match:
Played: 8 (100%)
Won: 3 (37.5%)
Drawn: 3 (37.5%)
Lost: 2 (25%)

Away Fixture After Away European Match:
Played: 6 (100%)
Won: 2 (33%)
Drawn: 1 (16%)
Lost: 3 (50%)

So now we have established that not only do you want to play Man Utd after they've played away from home in Europe, but you also want them to be the away team; that is, you want to be the home team. Sounds obvious enough, so lets just examine these 6 "Away after Away" fixtures a bit more...

Away Fixture After Away Win in European Match:
Played: 3 (100%)
Won: 1 (33%)
Drawn: 0 (0%)
Lost: 2 (66%)

Away Fixture After Away Draw in European Match:
Played: 3 (100%)
Won: 1 (33%)
Drawn: 1 (33%)
Lost: 2 (33%)

Away Fixture After Away Loss in European Match:
Played: 0 (0%)
Won: 0 (0%)
Drawn: 0 (0%)
Lost: 0 (0%)


Results

It is now quite clear that the best time to play Man Utd is when your at home, and they have just won away from home in Europe (a loss could also help, but there is no data available for this).

So there we go, the longest post I have ever made or seen on Boards to point out the blatantly funking obvious. But hey, at least I started somewhere simples! I would like to thank all 3 of you who have made it this far for reading. What good is this knowledge to you? Well, when you're at the pub and United happen to be playing, and Andy Gray is mouthing on about "how interesting United's response their midweek European exploits will be", you can simply interject "Well Andy, ACTUALLY........" and take it from there. Just ignore the people who shout "Duh! Obvious like! Sit down ya fookin eejit...!"....

Next Week: Are Celtic and Rangers in cahoots?*

*may not be true

Edit: Fixed November 9th Chelsea fixture. Results are still the same, although it does show that when United do poor in Europe (i.e. not win) then you have a far greater statistical chance of taking points off of them.

Columbia

Did Alberto Aquilani play count Duckula in all those cartoons?

dannydiamond

Lol, good work my man.

Jazzy

archimedez. i love that guy. ever since he got the new z in his name hes been totally rocking faces on boards. i still miss archimedes though he had a certain penache and stride which you just dont find in 2010

Good post OP.

Fulham to beat united on March 14th so....

Jazzy

rarnes1 wrote: »

Good post OP.

Fulham to beat united on March 14th so....

beware the ides of march...

MagicMarker

tl;dr

Jazzy

MagicMarker wrote: »

tl;dr

10,000 posts in like 2 years and thats all you can do? the aul quality/quantity ratio on this site is surely taking a massive hit

IvySlayer

I liked it, nice read on a Sunday morning. You bring up good points.

PS United didn't beat Chelsea, may want to edit that!

MagicMarker

Jazzy wrote: »

10,000 posts in like 2 years and thats all you can do? the aul quality/quantity ratio on this site is surely taking a massive hit

tl;dr

DazMarz

You also got one of the results wrong too; 8th Nov 2009, Chelsea beat Man United 1-0, not vice versa. Skews your stats.;)

everdead.ie

DazMarz wrote: »

You also got one of the results wrong too; 8th Nov 2009, Chelsea beat Man United 1-0, not vice versa. Skews your stats.;)

E&OE don't ya know;)

CHD

Get a girlfriend

Nah, good post. Can we suggest myths for you to bust?

RandolphEsq

CHD wrote: »

Get a girlfriend

Nah, good post. Can we suggest myths for you to bust?

Yeah, like the myth that some day Liverpool might win the Premiership. I just think that it is too far fetched for anybody to believe!

Peyton Manning

Fixed it for the Chlelsea fixture. Meh. This is the result of having a bloody awful cold

Go ahead, suggest some myths that need busting. Im pretty sure the next one will be "Is Dirk Kuyt good enough for the big 4?" and before I get jumped on, I will be taking a pro Kuyt stance.

RandolphEsq

Arsene Wenger regularly whinges that teams go out to kick his Arsenal team because that is how to beat them. Is this the ranting of a man who is bitter about getting used to not challenging for the Premiership title anymore, or is there truth in what he says?
Interesting in the aftermath of Ryan "I-end-careers" Shawcross butchering Aaron Ramsey's leg yesterday

Peyton Manning

A mythbusters on the famous Arsenal youth system and what it has actually amounted to would be interesting, Ill chalk it down.

_blank_

Archimedez wrote: »

I will be taking a pro Kuyt stance.

Well, you shouldn't.

you should just present the facts as they present themselves, then write the conclusions that those facts point to.

If the facts show that Kuyt isn't good enough for a "top 4" team, then say that.

Peyton Manning

Des wrote: »

Well, you shouldn't.

you should just present the facts as they present themselves, then write the conclusions that those facts point to.

If the facts show that Kuyt isn't good enough for a "top 4" team, then say that.

You're right, its not that Ill be taking a pro Kuyt stance in advance, I just meant that I believe it will reflect well on him when complete.

Rekop dog

I don't think a two year sample size is enough to solve any myths here tbh.

Peyton Manning

Rekop dog wrote: »

I don't think a two year sample size is enough to solve any myths here tbh.

I know. I said it was a small sample to begin with. I picked two seasons because the season before that, United were pretty much the best team in the world so defeats were rare enough. Its the last 2 seasons that they have looked shakier than usual, which is what I was getting at. In reality though these figures mean nothing, football is football and you know, any given sunday and all. Its just some light reading for a Sunday morning.

Rekop dog

Archimedez wrote: »

I know. I said it was a small sample to begin with. I picked two seasons because the season before that, United were pretty much the best team in the world so defeats were rare enough. Its the last 2 seasons that they have looked shakier than usual, which is what I was getting at. In reality though these figures mean nothing, football is football and you know, any given sunday and all. Its just some light reading for a Sunday morning.

Yeah it's just you could take another 2 year sample from they're history and find huge variance from your sample. You'd need to do about decade of games to see more accurate results. I'd be really interested at seeing this for betting purposes if your really committed because I like the general idea of the thread but it needs to be executed better for real kudos;)

Peyton Manning

Rekop dog wrote: »

Yeah it's just you could take another 2 year sample from they're history and find huge variance from your sample. You'd need to do about decade of games to see more accurate results. I'd be really interested at seeing this for betting purposes if your really committed because I like the general idea of the thread but it needs to be executed better for real kudos;)

Might look into that actually. Could take a few days, it took me quite a while to do that last night! But yeah actually, Ill post up a bigger sample over the coming days, perhaps of a decade.

IvySlayer

Dear Archie,

Can you look at zonal marking? I have seen endless posts complaining about zonal marking. Is it a myth that it doesn't work?

Yours Sincerely,
IvySlayer.

P.S Can I have an autograph