If these 3 TDs withdrew their support from the government, it would fall

anne14marie

We must remove this corrupt government before NAMA comes in or well end up paying the developers’ debts. Its possible. It would only take 3 TDs to withdraw their support from the government to end this corrupt government.

FF have only 75 TD
They need a minimum of 84 votes in Dail to win votes
So, FF need 9 extra votes at least of these to win Dail votes
Greens number 6 TD, Independents (including PDs) number 7
There is also Seamus Brennan's seat by-election coming up. Independent TDs like maureen o’sullivan, finian mc grath as far as I know don't support the government.
Surely, we could put pressure on 3 TDs to withdraw their support from FF and the government would fall. Paul gogarty,Jackie Healy-Rae,Trevor Sargent might not be willing to take the flack for making us pay for NAMA. It can be done and needs to be done before we end up paying developers’debts.Surely, we could organise an email, phone and general campaign to make those 3 selected TDs withdraw support from the government. Thats all it would take to make the government fall.Those 3 TDs not voting with the government.

Laminations

Unfortunately I feel they'll push through NAMA before they fall. Push enough of it through that any new government could not unravel it and FF could then boast that the opposition are doing the same as they did and continuing with NAMA when the truth will be all choice has been removed.

Liam Byrne

If we don't try, we'll never know.

Post the contact details here and count me in.

anymore

It is an intersting idea.

PomBear

I'm in

Sulmac

Why just these three TDs?

I'd put pressure on every single one of them who support the government.

Spiritoftheseventies

PomBear wrote: »

I'm in

Again it boils down to this and its been said over and over. Greens know they are going to get hammered in elections. So no one is going to walk. I think they should but they wont.

bryaner

I'm in

Biggins

Greens won't walk, O'Rea is not going to rock the boat for personal reasons (for himself and for his son who he's trying to get to take over from him as a seat), any other independents have consistently voted with the government (they've been looked after) - so the fact is FF are here to stay unless something absolutely critical emerges rapid.

If FF was to go tomorrow, I'd be one of the first to start cracking out the bubbly but sadly till we ALL get up and do something, they will drag out their ongoing existence - and that's just the reality of where we are.

...and FF know it and is shoving it in our faces.
...and still the Greens support them!!!

Spiritoftheseventies

What is the long delay with Brennan by-election. Its crazy.

Biggins

Spiritoftheseventies wrote: »

What is the long delay with Brennan by-election. Its crazy.

FF are deliberately delaying any elections that might give seats to the other side.

For example, see this link: http://www.independent.ie/national-news/pressure-mounts-on-cowen-to-call-crucial-byelection-2018313.html

Fianna Fail MEP Pat 'The Cope' Gallagher, who vacated his Dail seat to run in the European elections last June, said that his former constituents in Donegal South West deserved to have three sitting TDs.

Last June and they are STILL stalling!!!

Sulmac

Spiritoftheseventies wrote: »

What is the long delay with Brennan by-election. Its crazy.

They had it back in June. George Lee and all that.

Happy Monday

FF will make it worth their while to remain supporting the government for the next 2 plus years - these TDs will have a wish list for their own constituencies.

If there was an election likely that FG and Labour would rule with a clear majority - theses independents would have absolutely no leverage at that point and would be ignored.

Think of the big picture not just NAMA.

jpfahy

was Seamus Brennan's seat not won by George Lee??

Spiritoftheseventies

Sulmac wrote: »

They had it back in June. George Lee and all that.

So why is it being called Seamus Brennans seat. Its George lee's seat now. or was. If i was the electorate there i would stay at home this time though. They must be very annoyed.

bijapos

They need 4, more like 5 to change.

At present FF have 76. 78 at election minus S.Brennan, Pat the cope Gallagher and Joe Behan, and they gained Beverly Cooper-Flynn.

Green Party 6. Gogarty has already said he would vote in favour of NAMA, don't see Sargent or any others pulling out.

PD 2. They won't budge. Harney is happy where she is and Grealish has his Claregalway bypass.

Independents 2. Healy-Rae is a FFer out and out. He will always vote for them. tried to shaft his elderly constituents by voting for the medical card withdrawal. Lowry has made his deal and will stick to it (see Healy-Rae).

Of the three other Independents McGrath and O'Suillivan would vote against NAMA. Behan I do not know. Does anyone know if he has outed his position on this?

So technically you can take the Ceann Comhairle off the FF vote but if it's hung he votes in favour. So that makes 76+6+2+2= 86.

164 seats in the dail at present (waiting on the bye-election for Brennan and Gallagher), opposition have 78 if the other 3 Independents vote against the government. (FG 51, Lab 20, SF 4, Ind 3).

4 TD's voting against the government would result in a hung Dail, so you need 5.

So you essentially need 5 FF TD's to go against the party whip and possible ejection from the FF party, and I really do not know who they are. I think that when McDaid lost the whip he probably only did it after doing the sums as to whether the government would fall or not.

Scofflaw

The government doesn't require 84 votes for a majority. The Dáil is currently only 164 members including the CC, who has a casting vote in the event of a tie - so as far as I know all that's needed is 82.

cordially,
Scofflaw

Biggins

I can't say one way or another, I just wish there was enough to get rid of them.

Spiritoftheseventies

Biggins wrote: »

I can't say one way or another, I just wish there was enough to get rid of them.

FF have McDaid back in the ranks following the decision to release funds for the vacine programme for First year students. So as such they are a vote up. I think Greens in the time they have left in government will be very keen to get as much out of FF as possible. FF are about vote management in and outside the Dail. Deals will be made to secure that vote.

Biggins

Spiritoftheseventies wrote: »

FF...Deals will be made to secure that vote.

Its always been that way. FF have made it into an art form. The Greens are well stuck and the independents have each their own separate looked after sought and found compromises with the devil(s).

What I really fail to understand is that the Greens although they know they are probably finished at the next election, still don't get the message that there is still time for them to gain some popularity back by doing the decent thing and separating from FF.
If they did that, they might stand some chance of holding onto a seat or two at the next elections (or even keeping the Green agenda alive!), as it is, they have killed off any Green party future and agenda absolutely no doubt.
"Green Party" is going (if not already) to be looked down at with the same disdain that other "crawled out of the gutter" groups in Irish society are currently getting. Unless they do SOMETHING the words "Green Party" are words that will be said with disgust for the next near decade and their members treated like lepers at the doorsteps.

...And that will be the main memory/legacy of Gormless and co!

dynamick

Biggins wrote: »

What I really fail to understand is that the Greens although they know they are probably finished at the next election, still don't get the message that there is still time for them to gain some popularity back by doing the decent thing and separating from FF.
If they did that, they might stand some chance of holding onto a seat or two at the next elections (or even keeping the Green agenda alive!)

The latest Red C Poll shows the same level of support for the greens as they had at the election - 5%. All these people who say they will never vote for them again never voted for them in the first place.

Only 45% of people polled believe that the greens should pull out of government. I doubt that the green TDs would prefer to abandon their legislative agenda in the hope of being re-elected when they achieved zero in 25 years of opposition.

And do you really want a general election now? Every lamppost hung with posters of people who looks like cretins or paedos? Do you think that a government run by a party with no policy differences from FF, dependent on the trade unions for support will drag Ireland out of recession? I don't.

Right now the country is screwed and changing officers early isn't going to help. in 2011/2012 FG/Labour will take power and carry on the same program as Lenihan has instituted with a few sops thrown to labour every now and then. Labour will become incredibly unpopular as junior coalition partner when it becomes apparent that they cannot deliver on all their magical promises to unionised workers. FF will be very effective in opposition and return to power in 2016/2017 (maybe with SF).

Spiritoftheseventies

dynamick wrote: »

. FF will be very effective in opposition and return to power in 2016/2017 (maybe with SF).

FF should try to be effective in power. No budget to repair the roads, Crime bosses having a laugh of them, Public sector holding them to ransom..

Liam Byrne

Spiritoftheseventies wrote: »

FF should try to be effective in power. No budget to repair the roads, Crime bosses having a laugh of them, Public sector holding them to ransom..

What do you expect when they pass "votes of confidence" on corruption and greed ?

Red_Marauder

dynamick wrote: »

The latest Red C Poll shows the same level of support for the greens as they had at the election - 5%. All these people who say they will never vote for them again never voted for them in the first place..

I assume you remember there is a margin of error to take into account?

Laminations

dynamick wrote: »

The latest Red C Poll shows the same level of support for the greens as they had at the election - 5%. All these people who say they will never vote for them again never voted for them in the first place.

Does the Red C poll take into account transfers or just first preferences? Because I'm quite sure that it was through 2nd, 3rd and 4th preference votes that the Greens got their seats. There are plenty of voters who gave the Greens transfers and have learnt their lesson now. You can bury your head in the sand and think the Greens have a chance, but they will go the way of the PDs

Scofflaw

Laminations wrote: »

Does the Red C poll take into account transfers or just first preferences? Because I'm quite sure that it was through 2nd, 3rd and 4th preference votes that the Greens got their seats. There are plenty of voters who gave the Greens transfers and have learnt their lesson now. You can bury your head in the sand and think the Greens have a chance, but they will go the way of the PDs

That's probably where the damage will be done, certainly - the only hope for the Greens would be transfers from Fianna Fáil voters, but Fianna Fáil's vote management is usually good enough to ensure there's little or no leakage.

However, at this stage the Greens are damned either way - if they pull out, no Fianna Fáil voter will touch them, and they probably won't get back enough of the ABFF votes to make up for the loss of that slight hope. Looking at this thread, and others, suggests that whether they stay or go the result will be the same - hardly something that suggests giving up two and half years of legislative agenda is worthwhile.

resignedly,
Scofflaw

dynamick

Red_Marauder wrote: »

I assume you remember there is a margin of error to take into account?

Yes, so what would you deduce from the margin of error, given that the sample size is approx 1,000, so there's around ±3% margin of error for a 95% confidence level?

Laminations wrote: »

Does the Red C poll take into account transfers or just first preferences? Because I'm quite sure that it was through 2nd, 3rd and 4th preference votes that the Greens got their seats.

This is a 1st preference poll. You are right that transfers have been all important to the greens in the past and I would expect these to be far down in the 2012 GE

Trevor Sargent looks like the only green TD likely to be re-elected if an election were held now. What will happen in 2012 is anyone's guess but paddy power is running a book on no. of green TDs after next election.

Biggins

dynamick wrote: »

Trevor Sargent looks like the only green TD likely to be re-elected if an election were held now. What will happen in 2012 is anyone's guess but paddy power is running a book on no. of green TDs after next election.

Never thought I'd see the day when I hope the bookies have got it right! :pac:

Red_Marauder

dynamick wrote: »

Yes, so what would you deduce from the margin of error, given that the sample size is approx 1,000, so there's around ±3% margin of error for a 95% confidence level?

Well my point is that if there is a +/-3% m.o.e. then you cannot really make any clear assertions about the 5% green figure and/ or correlate it very fluidly to the last GE.

hallelujajordan

Spiritoftheseventies wrote: »

FF should try to be effective in power. No budget to repair the roads, Crime bosses having a laugh of them, Public sector holding them to ransom..

How do you work that out ? ?. . . FF/GP have tackled the public sector in a way that a government that included the union-funded-Labour-party never could ??

Spiritoftheseventies

hallelujajordan wrote: »

How do you work that out ? ?. . . FF/GP have tackled the public sector in a way that a government that included the union-funded-Labour-party never could ??

From what i heard they rowed back on level of public sector cuts. They dont have money to pay them and yet public sector somehow cant grasp that. As Myers said before christmas no-one in private sector out protesting.