Cheltenham 2010, tips, hunchs and dead certs?

bit of a bogey

I wouldnt think aather would have anywhere near the class to win a supreme novices anyway. I do like him for the county hurdle as he's open to alot of improvement but like I said, I dont think he'll get in. If he does get in I'll prob have a small ew bet on him. The fear always is though that Pipe may have something with 2 stone in hand. Its the sort of race that he has plotted out for a horse since last year!

The Imperial cup on saturday could well tell us more!

ShowSportsNews

I'll be going for the best chance Cheltenham acca there has been in years! Given that most of these horses on form are rated far and above the rest of the field or in Kauto Stars case just ahead of Denmans best this has to be the bank roller of the festival.

Dunguib
Master Minded
Big Bucks
Kauto Star

Acca paying around 7/1.

I also fancy ew value in Bellvano in the Supreme Novices and Barker in the Queen Mother.

Admins I hope this is ok? Checkout my Cheltenham Preview blog on www.showsportsnews.com

venividivici

Tuesdays picks:

Sup. Nov.: Peddler's Cross (if it goes in this race)
Arkle: Captain Cee Bee
Will. Hill.: Exmoor Ranger
Champ. Hdl.: Khymber Kim (my best bet of the festival)*
X Ctry.: L'Ami
Dav. Nich.: Voler La Vedette



*I was chatting to Nigel T-D on a flight from Glasgow and he told me, 'don't mind Dunguib, Kim will pay your mortgage!' He also mentioned Sublimity as the only horse they were slightly worried about but they were still certain of beating him and as I'm sure everyone knows now Sublimity doesn't run. That's my bit of insider info anyway. Good luck all.

RichieLawlor

venividivici wrote: »

Tuesdays picks:

Sup. Nov.: Peddler's Cross (if it goes in this race)
Arkle: Captain Cee Bee
Will. Hill.: Exmoor Ranger
Champ. Hdl.: Khymber Kim (my best bet of the festival)*
X Ctry.: L'Ami
Dav. Nich.: Voler La Vedette

Peddlers Cross will go in the Longer race

RichieLawlor

ShowSportsNews wrote: »

I'll be going for the best chance Cheltenham acca there has been in years! Given that most of these horses on form are rated far and above the rest of the field or in Kauto Stars case just ahead of Denmans best this has to be the bank roller of the festival.

Dunguib
Master Minded
Big Bucks
Kauto Star

Acca paying around 7/1.

Binocular, MM, Kasbah Bliss and Kauto all looked as likely last year, never works out that way

ShowSportsNews

Have to agree with your bit of inside info there on Khyber Kim! With Go Native not a fully convincing fav and Solwhit scoping dirty today the 8/1 still available for Khyber Kim is unreal value! To think Paddy Power had a 12/1 special price on him only last week! A horse thats won his last 2 outings beating Celestial Halo and Harry Tricker in the process who could turn their nose up to that price.

ShowSportsNews

RichieLawlor wrote: »

Binocular, MM, Kasbah Bliss and Kauto all looked as likely last year, never works out that way

Binocular has always been an overated underperforming horse for me. I can't disagree with Kasbah although happily opposed him and was on Big Bucks at 7/1 last year and he obliged I was on Osana in the Champion Hurdle last year and he disappointed badly..

venividivici

yeah thought that about Peddler's Cross, but ya never know what owners/trainers might decide, either way i'll be backing it on Tues or Weds.

I have some 'small' money on Khyber Kim at 12's and some 'bigger' money at 8's, as was already said 8's IMO is still huge.

Sizzler

I'm going against some of the more obvious choices this year and trying to find some value, whether that plan pays off only time will tell :eek::)

Champion Hurdle - Have gone for Zaynar at 8/1 antepost, I'm ignoring that last defeat at Newcastle. I dont think that means diddly squat, seem to remember Punjabi getting turned over pre his champion hurdle victory.

World Hurdle - I've gone for another Henderson horse, Sentry Duty. Last victory was just shy of the 3m here but was importantly at Cheltenham and he made a monkey out of Katchit, he had LOADS in the tank that day and think he might be a match for Big Bucks. 14/1

Champion Bumper - I'm going for Shot from the hip. Has been HUGELY impressive in his two wins to date. Comes here without really having been tested but after seeing him win at Leop I couldnt resist some having a go at 14/1, hes a bit shorter now.

Arkle - I'm plumping for Tataniano at 16/1. I will be very surprised if Ruby jumps off this to ride Sportsline but even if he does I think hes in with a huge chance. Was touched off the last day at a crazy price but was giving 4lbs away that day and given hes come up that cheltenham hill twice as a winner before means a lot for me. Great e/w shout.

Triumph Hurdle - Advisor 10/1. Again Ruby should be on board here at a rather generous price. Has yet to be severely tested but can only beat whats been put in front of him and he has been impressive to say the least.

Ryanair Chase - Schindlers Hunt at 10/1 now, I got a few pts better a fortnight ago but always turns up for the big occassion and this is a wide open race, bang in form and sure to run into a place for me.

Supreme Novices - Dont have to be a racing expect to see that Dunguib is the one to beat here but with PP's rather generous money back offer Im going for Get me out of here to run this lad close, hes been class in all his races, like Dunguib doesnt know what being beaten is yet, so something has to give.

Lays of the festival for me - Weld has an AWFUL record here and I cant see Rite of Passage winning . He beat Grey Soldier the last day at Leop and look what happened to Grey Soldier in the UK a fortnight ago! LAY LAY LAY!

Elegant Concorde, cant see why this is heading the market, it will be found out by a better Irish horse, simple as.

Alaivan - Probably the most bizarre fav of the meet for me and I wouldnt back it with monopoly money.

cson

Could have had Khyber Kim at 9s from Hills if you shopped around.

venividivici

cson wrote: »

Could have had Khyber Kim at 9s from Hills if you shopped around.

12's and 8's will do fine for me, i'm not greedy!!!!!!!

mdwexford

RichieLawlor wrote: »

Binocular, MM, Kasbah Bliss and Kauto all looked as likely last year, never works out that way

They didnt, the 3 Nicholls horses win unless something goes wrong. Dunguib not so much.

ShowSportsNews wrote: »

Have to agree with your bit of inside info there on Khyber Kim! With Go Native not a fully convincing fav and Solwhit scoping dirty today the 8/1 still available for Khyber Kim is unreal value! To think Paddy Power had a 12/1 special price on him only last week! A horse thats won his last 2 outings beating Celestial Halo and Harry Tricker in the process who could turn their nose up to that price.

How is Go Native not fully convincing?
He is a rock solid fav, bomb proof to be in the top 3.

KK and Medermit are going to be on my side too however.

Sizzler im glad someone else is on Tataniano, thought i was the only one.
Have to say im not liking the look of Betfair prices on him though, im half expecting an announcement by Nicholls any day that hes going to Aintree instead.

RichieLawlor

First off Sizzler I'm nit saying your wrong, these are my opionions on your selections.

Ruby won't be on either Tataniano or Advisor imo, Sports Line and Secant Star are both shorter in the betting and have livlier chances in there respective races.

Tataniano just isn't any good, it's that simple I'm afraid. He has beaten nothing all year ( fosters cross was going equally as well at Cheltenham that day before coming down and he's no world beater) and he was turned over at 1/6 last time out. If he was any good he would not be the price he is and when Ruby confirms he's not riding this horse could go off any price.

Zaynar is a place lay in the CH. How he is so short is amazing, that triumph form isn't as hot as people seem to think, he then won over 2m3f at ascot and 2m4f at Cheltenham and was turned over at 1/14 over the shortest distance he has tackled this year. Horse should be in the World Hurdle and if he has the pace to win a champion I'll leave it so.

I don't think Sentry Duty will get home in the LWH, but while I wouldn't put you off him. I think Big Bucks is the banker of the meeting.

steerforth80

had my first bet today.. wishfull thinking in the Coral cup @ 14's. nice weight and possible claiming jockey on board.. improving horse and ticks the boxes for me at 14's.. will make my festival!!!

admiralofthefleet

so far im on:

tranquil sea
rite of passage
shannon spirit
captain cee bee

ShowSportsNews

mdwexford wrote: »

How is Go Native not fully convincing?
He is a rock solid fav, bomb proof to be in the top 3.

I just feel he has a tendency to idle in the run in like he did when just beating Starluck in Kempton and had no pace when Voler La Vadette hammered him at Down Royal, so I wonder how he will cope doing the same coming up the hill at Cheltenham. I know he held on well last year but it was a slow Supreme Novices by previous standards. DOn't get me wrong he will defo be in the frame but others have good cases especially with the odds available for the rest of the field.

RichieLawlor

ShowSportsNews wrote: »

I just feel he has a tendency to idle in the run in like he did when just beating Starluck in Kempton and had no pace when Voler La Vadette hammered him at Down Royal, so I wonder how he will cope doing the same coming up the hill at Cheltenham. I know he held on well last year but it was a slow Supreme Novices by previous standards. DOn't get me wrong he will defo be in the frame but others have good cases especially with the odds available for the rest of the field.

He got there too soon in the christmas hurdle. Wont happen in the CH

VLV beat him in a swamp up north where he drifted from 6/4 out to 11/4 or something equally similar,

Last years Supreme was faster than the Champion over the same course and distance 1 hour later

UrbanSea

I'd find garde champetre at 9/4 one of the best bets of the festival.

Shane732

greetings wrote: »

I'd find garde champetre at 9/4 one of the best bets of the festival.

I would have agreed with this statement until Saturday - I don't know how big I'm going to go in now...

Morgans

Supposedly Nicholls wants Tataniano to go for the Grand Annual but Stewart wants to go for the Arkle. Supposedly. I think that Ruby will ride Sportsline, but I dont think its far from certain that he'd make the right choice. They sound alike etc but he smells like another Tatanen for me. Just short of what is required.

Shane732

RichieLawlor wrote: »

He got there too soon in the christmas hurdle. Wont happen in the CH

VLV beat him in a swamp up north where he drifted from 6/4 out to 11/4 or something equally similar,

Last years Supreme was faster than the Champion over the same course and distance 1 hour later

And I reckon this years Supreme will be faster too if Dunguib has his way.

UrbanSea

Shane732 wrote: »

I would have agreed with this statement until Saturday - I don't know how big I'm going to go in now...

What changed saturday?

Warper

Shane732 wrote: »

I would have agreed with this statement until Saturday - I don't know how big I'm going to go in now...

Why do you say that? - What happened?

mdwexford

ShowSportsNews wrote: »

I just feel he has a tendency to idle in the run in like he did when just beating Starluck in Kempton and had no pace when Voler La Vadette hammered him at Down Royal, so I wonder how he will cope doing the same coming up the hill at Cheltenham. I know he held on well last year but it was a slow Supreme Novices by previous standards. DOn't get me wrong he will defo be in the frame but others have good cases especially with the odds available for the rest of the field.

He got a bad ride at Kempton so id forgive him that, and in saying that he still won another Grade 1.

There will be a strong pace with Celestial Halo and perhaps Zaynar if he can go the gallop being pretty prominent and trying to draw the sting out of the strong travellers like Go Native and Starluck.

Last years Supreme Novices for is rock solid and cannot be questioned in any way at the moment, the top 3 have been excellent this season.

Yes the 3 main English horses have cases and possibly Starluck as well.

mdwexford

Morgans wrote: »

Supposedly Nicholls wants Tataniano to go for the Grand Annual but Stewart wants to go for the Arkle. Supposedly. I think that Ruby will ride Sportsline, but I dont think its far from certain that he'd make the right choice. They sound alike etc but he smells like another Tatanen for me. Just short of what is required.

This was the quote that won me over with regards Tataniano, not in the Tatenen mould, just hope hes good enough to figure now in what i think is not as vintage a renewal as some others, CCB jumping is a worry, not sure Somersby is pacy enough and Sizing Europe has a history of bottling it on the big occasion. We shall see i guess.

That was perfect. He'll have only one run before Christmas and then we'll put him away as he's better a little fresh. Then it will hopefully be back here and then Aintree and Punchestown. Tatenen was always more of a hype horse. He is slow and wants three miles - in fact he fell in last season's Arkle because he was going flat out. Tataniano has all the speed in the world and is in the Azertyuiop mould. Without a shadow of a doubt he's an Arkle horse. Whether he's good enough to win it, we'll find out, but he's definitely good enough to go there. - Paul Nicholls, trainer

pimpmyace

at least anything McCoy is on can be counted out will he ride denman

Chriskavo

Did This 100 EUR Accumulator Bet On Monday In PaddyPowers

Dunguib

Big Bucks

Voler Le Vedette

Kauto Star

Master Minded

Of course they all have to win, I decided against taking any prices as I believe that most will drift albeit by only a point or so. Any views on these selections?

bit of a bogey

Chriskavo wrote: »

Did This 100 EUR Accumulator Bet On Monday In PaddyPowers

Dunguib

Big Bucks

Voler Le Vedette

Kauto Star

Master Minded

Of course they all have to win, I decided against taking any prices as I believe that most will drift albeit by only a point or so. Any views on these selections?

All have solid claims but its very edgey for a E100 acc. Im already on Dunguib and is the one to beat and Big Buck looks solid. I'll prob end up doing VLV myself but I'll be leaving it as late as possible to hear the vibes from mullins yard. Obviously Quevaga's the massive danger but I'm weary of backing herself without a run at such a short price.

Master Minded is an exceptional horse but he has shown that he has flaws so I wont be backing him at current prices. Could be the one that gets turned over.


Does anyone still have faith in Denman? He's getting no respect from the pundits on the preview nights. Im still expecting a big run! His Hennessy performance was simply unreal and he has to be runing Kauto very close if he reproduces a similar run!

Also I'm sure mcoy learnt alot from the last day!

UrbanSea

Chriskavo wrote: »

Did This 100 EUR Accumulator Bet On Monday In PaddyPowers

Dunguib

Big Bucks

Voler Le Vedette

Kauto Star

Master Minded

Of course they all have to win, I decided against taking any prices as I believe that most will drift albeit by only a point or so. Any views on these selections?

Looks a good one,VLV being a tricky choice. However I think quevega not having had a run yet is only good for those opposing it whereas VLV has been fantastic this year

Chriskavo

bit of a bogey wrote: »

All have solid claims but its very edgey for a E100 acc. Im already on Dunguib and is the one to beat and Big Buck looks solid. I'll prob end up doing VLV myself but I'll be leaving it as late as possible to hear the vibes from mullins yard. Obviously Quevaga's the massive danger but I'm weary of backing herself without a run at such a short price.

Master Minded is an exceptional horse but he has shown that he has flaws so I wont be backing him at current prices. Could be the one that gets turned over.


Does anyone still have faith in Denman? He's getting no respect from the pundits on the preview nights. Im still expecting a big run! His Hennessy performance was simply unreal and he has to be runing Kauto very close if he reproduces a similar run!

Also I'm sure mcoy learnt alot from the last day!

Thanks for those views - as regards Denman I also backed this horse ante post and like everyone else I was very disappointed with his Aon chase performance.
His Hennessy run though was out of this world. Paul Nicholls has proven time and time again that he can get his horses back to peak form when it matters. For me Denman is still head and shoulders above any of Kautos other opposition. If he runs like he did in the Hennessy then I believe that he will win. But the head tells me that he just isn't right. I take your point on Master Minded but he ran an incredible race last time at Newbury. I know he made a massive error at the last but Ruby is adamant that it was his and not the horse's fault. If thats the case then he looks a sure thing for me. Just another thing - i think you are right about A.P. not learning anything from that Denman ride as the horse seems to have a mind of his own. I don't think many jockeys - Thomas and Ruby included know what to make of him!