Cheltenham 2010, tips, hunchs and dead certs?

gandroid

Chriskavo wrote: »

Did This 100 EUR Accumulator Bet On Monday In PaddyPowers

Dunguib

Big Bucks

Voler Le Vedette

Kauto Star

Master Minded

Of course they all have to win, I decided against taking any prices as I believe that most will drift albeit by only a point or so. Any views on these selections?

The bookie must be a very happy man.

Nulty

Chriskavo wrote: »

Did This 100 EUR Accumulator Bet On Monday In PaddyPowers

Dunguib

Big Bucks

Voler Le Vedette

Kauto Star

Master Minded

Of course they all have to win, I decided against taking any prices as I believe that most will drift albeit by only a point or so. Any views on these selections?

PP do Guaranteed Prices. If the SP is bigger than your price, thats what they pay out on. If they shorten (BB, KS and Dunguib will shorten IMO ) and they all win you get a worse price.

Did you go E/W?

mdwexford

PP are guaranteeing prices from Monday says a guy i know who works there, not now.

He hardly backed 4 odds on shots and a 5/2 e/w, least i hope not.

corny

Chriskavo wrote: »

Did This 100 EUR Accumulator Bet On Monday In PaddyPowers

Dunguib

Big Bucks

Voler Le Vedette

Kauto Star

Master Minded

Of course they all have to win, I decided against taking any prices as I believe that most will drift albeit by only a point or so. Any views on these selections?

Looks good on paper but in reality i'd expect one of the odds on shots to be turned over. Quevega would also ruin it if she repeats last years performance.

krustydoyle

Chriskavo wrote: »

Did This 100 EUR Accumulator Bet On Monday In PaddyPowers

Dunguib

Big Bucks

Voler Le Vedette

Kauto Star

Master Minded

Of course they all have to win, I decided against taking any prices as I believe that most will drift albeit by only a point or so. Any views on these selections?

As the saying goes "Theres always one that'll let you down"
But the best of luck with it;)

Chriskavo

Thanks for all those views lads - It is a once a year bet for me. If it comes in then happy days. I am raging now that i didnt take the prices since you say that PP guarantee the greater S.P. so hoping they all drift anyway.

applehunter

Chriskavo wrote: »

Thanks for all those views lads - It is a once a year bet for me. If it comes in then happy days. I am raging now that i didnt take the prices since you say that PP guarantee the greater S.P. so hoping they all drift anyway.

They only guarantee the prices on singles AFAIK.

NewApproach

I'm in a bit of a rush so Ill be brief, but I'm:

Laying Dunguib in the SN.

Backing Punjabi/Celestial Halo in CH.

Backing CCB, laying Sizing Europe in the Arkle

Laying Quevega/VLV coupled in the mares race. (really think this race is setting up for an outsider)

Lumping on MM.

Laying Punchestowns, backing Weird Al

Drumbaloo in the bumper

Depending on the price Ill back Big Bucks.

And to wrap it all off Ill probably lay Kauto in the GC...

Shane732

Quevega is in flying form at the moment, so I'm told.

I'd be confident that Quevega will do the business.

RichieLawlor

NewApproach wrote: »

I'm in a bit of a rush so Ill be brief, but I'm:

Laying Dunguib in the SN.

Backing Punjabi/Celestial Halo in CH.

Backing CCB, laying Sizing Europe in the Arkle

Laying Quevega/VLV coupled in the mares race. (really think this race is setting up for an outsider)

Laying Punchestowns, backing Weird Al

Drumbaloo in the bumper

And to wrap it all off Ill probably lay Kauto in the GC...

How long have you hated money

Colonel Sanders

I can see odds against Dunguib being available on Monday evening/Tuesday morning. Although I don't think his SP will be odds against. I'll be backing him at above evens

Knobs

Brave Man laying Duinguib, IMO he will win by a mile


On the £100 Accum, At least one will let you down. IMO VLV will not win and Kauto and denman very close to call

Knobs

Will start Evens IMO tuesday morning and prob will be hammered in 8/11 by Us Irish on the morning:D


IR should trade a shade above evens ill be looking to get 5/4 IR

Johner

Man, I'm getting exited,not going into college at all next week, few crates from Tesco this weekend.

Morgans

My one lay of Day 1 is Garde Champetre.

My biggest win of this year was on the horse. Also, did the forecast in the race last year, but I think he is going to be hugely overbet on Tuesday, even more so if Dunguib wins.

mdwexford

mdwexford wrote: »

Sizzler im glad someone else is on Tataniano, thought i was the only one.
Have to say im not liking the look of Betfair prices on him though, im half expecting an announcement by Nicholls any day that hes going to Aintree instead.

Hate the way im always right, there goes one of my ante post bets. :rolleyes:

ya-ba-da-ba-doo

Okay I'm by no means an experienced better, but going on this thread I'm gonna go with this: (Paddy Power's odds)

1) Dunguib = €20 @ 4/5

2) Quevega = €10 @ 5/4

3) Captain Cee Bee = €10 @ 5/2

4) Garde Champtre = €10 @ 2/1

5) Go Native = €10 @ 3/1

6) Kymber Kim = €5 @ 8/1

7) Tranquil Sea = €5 @ 4/1

8) Master Minded = €10 @ 4/5


Cost = €80

Potential returns = €206.50 - €211.50

Here's hoping a few of them will come through!

Sizzler

Morgans wrote: »

Supposedly Nicholls wants Tataniano to go for the Grand Annual but Stewart wants to go for the Arkle. Supposedly. I think that Ruby will ride Sportsline, but I dont think its far from certain that he'd make the right choice. They sound alike etc but he smells like another Tatanen for me. Just short of what is required.

Confirmed.

Hes gone for the Grand Annual now, market leader at 8/1, have to back him in that now :eek::)

Ruby defo on sportsline now. Look at the stats for the Arkle lads, horses that have not run in the calendar year of Cheltenham don't win. The 3 market leaders now in the betting for the arkle have not run this year have they...Sportsline could be the bet now!

Whyno

Morgans wrote: »

My one lay of Day 1 is Garde Champetre.

My biggest win of this year was on the horse. Also, did the forecast in the race last year, but I think he is going to be hugely overbet on Tuesday, even more so if Dunguib wins.

Overbet or not its really hard to see past this one imo. I'd possibly lay to back during the race as i can see Lami travelling better as he did last year but GC just using its turn of foot to speed up the hill.

Pity about Tataniano but now i`m focusing on trying to find something else to lay in the arkle now

Morgans

I didnt like the way Garde Champetre ran last time out, even if it was over hurdles. I thought his class would have kept him in the race for longer. Also, the last banks race at Punchestown enda bolgers horses ran deplorably. All finishing out with the washing, including Heads on the ground.

Garde Champetre has been a great winner for me on these fences. (i would have gone back over conventional fences earlier as he would have been properly handicapped to win a big one once his spark was back) And I would like to see him win if I wasnt going to get financially involved. I just dont think he is in nearly the same form as before.

And the fact that its a handicap not a championship race also makes it increasingly harder for the horse.

I think there are lots of alternatives, and I think GC could go off way too short.

Another Jewel at 25/1 being the best value ew bet of Day 1, by a mile.

http://www.attheraces.com/VideoConsole/?va=PUN_2010_01_31_01_1255&vaff=24

Two horses ahead of him in the market miles behind. Scope for improvement, perfect weight. 25/1 is all sorts of wrong. 8/1 shot in my book.

Warper

I think Garde Champetre is one of the bets of the meeting at around 9-4. The horse is similar to Spot and absolutely loves jumping around Cheltenham. He always seems to find that bit extra round there and it will be great to see him win again.

The Irish look to have a very strong hand on Day 1 and have major fancies everywhere - could be a GREEN Tuesday.

GAA_PUNTER

Really fancy two horses
Ashkasar for martin pipe handicap and Monkerhostin for the cross country

premierstone

NewApproach wrote: »

I'm in a bit of a rush so Ill be brief, but I'm:

Laying Dunguib in the SN.

Backing Punjabi/Celestial Halo in CH.

Laying Quevega/VLV coupled in the mares race. (really think this race is setting up for an outsider)

backing Weird Al

And to wrap it all off Ill probably lay Kauto in the GC...

All I can say New Approach is that at least one of us is going to make money, go on tell me your laying Garde Champetre and Carlito Brigante aswell!!

NewApproach

RichieLawlor wrote: »

How long have you hated money

Knew someone would say this :rolleyes:

NewApproach

premierstone wrote: »

All I can say New Approach is that at least one of us is going to make money, go on tell me your laying Garde Champetre and Carlito Brigante aswell!!

No certainly not!

At least I'm not just saying 'oh, gonna back this fav, that fav etc.' I'm putting my opinions up there to be shot at, and that deserves some credit tbf. We'll see next week how I fare out!

premierstone

NewApproach wrote: »

No certainly not!

At least I'm not just saying 'oh, gonna back this fav, that fav etc.' I'm putting my opinions up there to be shot at, and that deserves some credit tbf. We'll see next week how I fare out!

Agreed New Approach, its a subjective game is racing and if everyone shared the same views it would be quite boring.

I will be shouting with you on CCB, MM and Drumbaloo and I will probably lay Punchestown aswell, but I couldnt for the life of me bring myself in all sanity to lay Dunquib or Kauto, I dont think these two will just win I actually think they will both murder their respective opponents, Dunquib is the largest bet I have ever had and im backing horses for over 15 years, trust me guys it is like finding money in the street!

Shane732

Morgans wrote: »

I didnt like the way Garde Champetre ran last time out, even if it was over hurdles. I thought his class would have kept him in the race for longer. Also, the last banks race at Punchestown enda bolgers horses ran deplorably. All finishing out with the washing, including Heads on the ground.

Garde Champetre has been a great winner for me on these fences. (i would have gone back over conventional fences earlier as he would have been properly handicapped to win a big one once his spark was back) And I would like to see him win if I wasnt going to get financially involved. I just dont think he is in nearly the same form as before.

And the fact that its a handicap not a championship race also makes it increasingly harder for the horse.

I think there are lots of alternatives, and I think GC could go off way too short.

Another Jewel at 25/1 being the best value ew bet of Day 1, by a mile.

http://www.attheraces.com/VideoConsole/?va=PUN_2010_01_31_01_1255&vaff=24

Two horses ahead of him in the market miles behind. Scope for improvement, perfect weight. 25/1 is all sorts of wrong. 8/1 shot in my book.

Garde Champetre was purely out for the run the last day and out for an easy one at that. It should be completely disregarded. If Garde isn't hampered by the recent events he'll win easy. JT said he could have won by 20 lengths the last day in Cheltenham. The whole yard are of the opinion that once GC shows up well he'll win.

In relation to Heads - he was 30 lengths behind GC and L'ami on their last work out.

I agree with you about Enda's horses being out of form. Outlaw Pete was well fancied in the point to point at the weekend and it didn't work out.

Lay at your own peril.

Shane732

Warper wrote: »

I think Garde Champetre is one of the bets of the meeting at around 9-4. The horse is similar to Spot and absolutely loves jumping around Cheltenham. He always seems to find that bit extra round there and it will be great to see him win again.

The Irish look to have a very strong hand on Day 1 and have major fancies everywhere - could be a GREEN Tuesday.

Yup he just seems to be at home in Cheltenham.

Morrisseeee

My pre-Cheltenham Accum: €10 ::

Supreme Novices' Hurdle (Grade 1) 2m 110y Pending
Dunguib @ 5/6

Champion Hurdle (Grade 1) 2m 110y Pending
Go Native @ 3/1

Neptune Investment Novices' Hurdle (Grade 1) 2m 5f Pending
Rite Of Passage @ 7/2

Queen Mother Champion Chase (Grade 1) 2m Pending
Master Minded @ 5/6

Ladbrokes World Hurdle (Grade 1) 3m Pending
Big Bucks @ 8/13

Cheltenham Gold Cup Chase (Grade 1) 3m 2f 110y Pending
Kauto Star @ 8/11

/fingers crossed.....:eek::p

Morgans

Shane732 wrote: »

Garde Champetre was purely out for the run the last day and out for an easy one at that. It should be completely disregarded. If Garde isn't hampered by the recent events he'll win easy. JT said he could have won by 20 lengths the last day in Cheltenham. The whole yard are of the opinion that once GC shows up well he'll win.

In relation to Heads - he was 30th lengths behind GC and L'ami on their last work out.

I agree with you about Enda's horses being out of form. Outlaw Pete was well fancied in the point to point at the weekend and it didn't work out.

Lay at your own peril.

Yep. I really like Garde Champetre. One of the most expensive NH purchases and Bolger has got him liking his racing again. Too classy for most in this sphere, and maybe I'm being a bit hard on the last run. I do appreciate it was a prep, but he didnt race like he was in good form. Fine, it was expected that he would toddle around the back of the field, but the moment any pace was put to the race, he dropped 6l off the second last horse in the race. Was allowed to trot home. I would have liked to have seen a little more promise, I rate him so highly that I thought he would have lasted at least another furlong in the peleton.

Not sure that I'd lay him, or continue to look for alternatives, but I do think he is susceptible and I get the feeling that he could start a ridiculous price (6/4 or less)

Another Jewel had Heads on the Ground 30l + behind last time out, and if he was trained by Bolger he would be definitely single figure odds. There was no fluke about the win. Maybe distance will be an issue but 8yo, 10-0, Russell possibly on board. I see i got the last of the 25s with WH, 20/1 generally available now. I think stable form is very important and would like to see Bolger's in better form before loading in again on the fav. I think he is vulnerable.