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Cheltenham 2010, tips, hunchs and dead certs?

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    #92
    cson
    Registered Users Posts: 14,448 ✭✭✭✭cson


    I'd take a chance on Silver Birch myself for a bit of value in that race.


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    #93
    Morgans
    Registered Users Posts: 4,361 ✭✭✭Morgans


    Sorry lads, saying any Bolger's cross-country specialists only seem to perform well at cheltenham - when it is one of two courses that hold cross-country races under rules is more than a little redundant.

    He is 3/3 at Punchestown as well.

    Garde Champetre has been able to run up a sequence because he was so well handicapped initially.

    Despite JT's opinion, I think the race was set up for him in the Autumn with Heads in the Ground trying to expose the stamina doubts about Maljimar. I personally thought he was all out up the hill and didnt think he had that much up his sleeve. I think De Bromhead would fancy Sizing Australia to get as close next week, getting another 2lbs.


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    #94
    Morgans
    Registered Users Posts: 4,361 ✭✭✭Morgans


    cson wrote: »
    I'd take a chance on Silver Birch myself for a bit of value in that race.

    I see your thinking and it was my first instinct when looking for a bit of value, but look how easily he was beaten last time out. I fail to see why he should be shorter than Another Jewel in the market, and how it could be perceived that Another Jewel isnt better value.


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    #95
    Chriskavo
    Closed Accounts Posts: 324 ✭✭Chriskavo


    Morrisseeee wrote: »
    My pre-Cheltenham Accum: €10 ::

    Supreme Novices' Hurdle (Grade 1) 2m 110y Pending
    Dunguib @ 5/6

    Champion Hurdle (Grade 1) 2m 110y Pending
    Go Native @ 3/1

    Neptune Investment Novices' Hurdle (Grade 1) 2m 5f Pending
    Rite Of Passage @ 7/2

    Queen Mother Champion Chase (Grade 1) 2m Pending
    Master Minded @ 5/6

    Ladbrokes World Hurdle (Grade 1) 3m Pending
    Big Bucks @ 8/13

    Cheltenham Gold Cup Chase (Grade 1) 3m 2f 110y Pending
    Kauto Star @ 8/11

    /fingers crossed.....:eek::p
    And a mighty 1688.08 EUR if they all come in! Good Luck I did one for 100EUR - MM, BB, KS, DUNGUIB and Voler LE Vedette! Cheltenham here we come!!!


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    #96
    UrbanSea
    Closed Accounts Posts: 18,335 ✭✭✭✭UrbanSea


    I wouldn't be too sure of rite of passage,hopefully he will though.


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    #97
    mdwexford
    Registered Users Posts: 11,276 ✭✭✭✭mdwexford


    Going to be a lot of sad people if Dunguib gets turned over in the first.

    This Cheltenham is going to be either an amazing one for punters or a bloodbath if the odds ons start getting beaten.


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    #98
    Chriskavo
    Closed Accounts Posts: 324 ✭✭Chriskavo


    RE: GARDE CHAMPETRE

    I read on another forum that Nina Carberry rates L'ami as a massive danger to her chances of winning this race again. Personally I believe that her fears are well grounded and that L'ami will emerge victorious on this occassion ahead of Sizing Austrailia with Garde Champetre finishing a gallant third.


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    #99
    UrbanSea
    Closed Accounts Posts: 18,335 ✭✭✭✭UrbanSea


    mdwexford wrote: »
    Going to be a lot of sad people if Dunguib gets turned over in the first.

    This Cheltenham is going to be either an amazing one for punters or a bloodbath if the odds ons start getting beaten.
    Do you think he will?
    I dont know why,but I seem to be one of the few people who aren't betting on him. I'm just not sure if he will. The best horse doesn't always win the race,especially a competitive SNH


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    #100
    Chriskavo
    Closed Accounts Posts: 324 ✭✭Chriskavo


    mdwexford wrote: »
    Going to be a lot of sad people if Dunguib gets turned over in the first.

    This Cheltenham is going to be either an amazing one for punters or a bloodbath if the odds ons start getting beaten.[/QUOT

    Wont happen - horse is laid out for this race all year. Martin Pipe and Mick Fitzgerald think it's bombproof and that he will win easily. I agree.


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    #101
    Morgans
    Registered Users Posts: 4,361 ✭✭✭Morgans


    Whatever you think yourself Christavo. You are not alone in thinking Dunguib is bombproof, but Mick Fitz is one awful pundit and an even worse tipster. Dont let his opinion reinforce yours.


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    #102
    UrbanSea
    Closed Accounts Posts: 18,335 ✭✭✭✭UrbanSea


    And I think that the word 'bombproof' is an awful adjective to describe a horse.
    No horse is bombproof.
    If it's so bombproof why is it 5/6 and not 1/20? Even then there is no such thing as a bombproof horse. That's like saying the titanic is unsinkable....and as far as I'm aware it wasnt


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    #103
    mdwexford
    Registered Users Posts: 11,276 ✭✭✭✭mdwexford


    greetings wrote: »
    Do you think he will?
    I dont know why,but I seem to be one of the few people who aren't betting on him. I'm just not sure if he will. The best horse doesn't always win the race,especially a competitive SNH

    Im not backing him either. He undoubtedly is talented but ive seen plenty of unbeaten very good looking horses going to the Supreme Novices over the years looking very hard to beat but getting beaten.

    He may well be the monster he looks like but he has several question marks imo and at even money hes not for me.
    Chriskavo wrote: »

    Wont happen - horse is laid out for this race all year. Martin Pipe and Mick Fitzgerald think it's bombproof and that he will win easily. I agree.

    Whatever you think yourself, i couldnt give a toss what they think to be honest but hes not laid out for this, its the number one novice race of the season, every decent novice has this as their target.


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    #104
    Chriskavo
    Closed Accounts Posts: 324 ✭✭Chriskavo


    Morgans wrote: »
    Whatever you think yourself Christavo. You are not alone in thinking Dunguib is bombproof, but Mick Fitz is one awful pundit and an even worse tipster. Dont let his opinion reinforce yours.

    Mick Fitzgerald is indeed a terrible pundit and tipster that I agree with but I cant really see anything beating this horse. I mean he is a monster - unbelievably fast
    and he will have everything in his favor as regards ground and the likely fast pace.


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    #105
    Shane732
    Registered Users Posts: 4,991 ✭✭✭Shane732


    mdwexford wrote: »
    Going to be a lot of sad people if Dunguib gets turned over in the first.

    This Cheltenham is going to be either an amazing one for punters or a bloodbath if the odds ons start getting beaten.

    Totally agree - Tuesday and Dunguib in particular will make or break the Irish punters.

    If Dunguib gets turned then I see a lot of people lumping on to GC in order to up the loss. If they both get turned then we all might as well go home!!


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    #106
    Shane732
    Registered Users Posts: 4,991 ✭✭✭Shane732


    Chriskavo wrote: »
    RE: GARDE CHAMPETRE

    I read on another forum that Nina Carberry rates L'ami as a massive danger to her chances of winning this race again. Personally I believe that her fears are well grounded and that L'ami will emerge victorious on this occassion ahead of Sizing Austrailia with Garde Champetre finishing a gallant third.

    Nina was offered first choice by Frank Berry.


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    #107
    Shane732
    Registered Users Posts: 4,991 ✭✭✭Shane732


    Morgans wrote: »
    Yep. I really like Garde Champetre. One of the most expensive NH purchases and Bolger has got him liking his racing again. Too classy for most in this sphere, and maybe I'm being a bit hard on the last run. I do appreciate it was a prep, but he didnt race like he was in good form. Fine, it was expected that he would toddle around the back of the field, but the moment any pace was put to the race, he dropped 6l off the second last horse in the race. Was allowed to trot home. I would have liked to have seen a little more promise, I rate him so highly that I thought he would have lasted at least another furlong in the peleton.

    Not sure that I'd lay him, or continue to look for alternatives, but I do think he is susceptible and I get the feeling that he could start a ridiculous price (6/4 or less)

    Another Jewel had Heads on the Ground 30l + behind last time out, and if he was trained by Bolger he would be definitely single figure odds. There was no fluke about the win. Maybe distance will be an issue but 8yo, 10-0, Russell possibly on board. I see i got the last of the 25s with WH, 20/1 generally available now. I think stable form is very important and would like to see Bolger's in better form before loading in again on the fav. I think he is vulnerable.

    Totally agree he is vulnerable and very exposed but I really hope he does the job. I still have decided whether I'll go in hard on this one and I'm nearly thinking I'll sit out and watch. I'd go mad if he did the business though.

    Freany's Wells at 25/1 is serious value too. He was upsides L'ami and Garde in their last piece of wrong and is totally ready for the occasion. Enda is only sending 5 horses over - all in the same race. He wants to win it!!


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    #108
    Chriskavo
    Closed Accounts Posts: 324 ✭✭Chriskavo


    Shane732 wrote: »
    Nina was offered first choice by Frank Berry.


    Didn't know that Shane - well then Garde would have to be the choice then.


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    #109
    Chriskavo
    Closed Accounts Posts: 324 ✭✭Chriskavo


    greetings wrote: »
    And I think that the word 'bombproof' is an awful adjective to describe a horse.
    No horse is bombproof.
    If it's so bombproof why is it 5/6 and not 1/20? Even then there is no such thing as a bombproof horse. That's like saying the titanic is unsinkable....and as far as I'm aware it wasnt


    Excellent point - never thought of it like that.


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    #110
    Morgans
    Registered Users Posts: 4,361 ✭✭✭Morgans


    Shane732 wrote: »
    Totally agree he is vulnerable and very exposed but I really hope he does the job. I still have decided whether I'll go in hard on this one and I'm nearly thinking I'll sit out and watch. I'd go mad if he did the business though.

    Freany's Wells at 25/1 is serious value too. He was upsides L'ami and Garde in their last piece of wrong and is totally ready for the occasion. Enda is only sending 5 horses over - all in the same race. He wants to win it!!

    The cross-country races are Bolger's Gold Cup. Its all he wants to win every year. And, apologies for going on about it, but Freney's Well was beaten 40l by Another Jewel last time out.


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    #111
    Shane732
    Registered Users Posts: 4,991 ✭✭✭Shane732


    greetings wrote: »
    And I think that the word 'bombproof' is an awful adjective to describe a horse.
    No horse is bombproof.
    If it's so bombproof why is it 5/6 and not 1/20? Even then there is no such thing as a bombproof horse. That's like saying the titanic is unsinkable....and as far as I'm aware it wasnt

    I think Zenyatta and Zarkava, to name but a few, might disagree with you!

    Didn't Kincsem win like 50 races (undefeated) back in the 1800's?!


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    #112
    UrbanSea
    Closed Accounts Posts: 18,335 ✭✭✭✭UrbanSea


    Shane732 wrote: »
    I think Zenyatta and Zarkava, to name but a few, might disagree with you!

    Didn't Kincsem win like 50 races (undefeated) back in the 1800's?!
    Yes but that is looking back,I mean before races.
    Zarkava going into the breeders' cup wasnt seen as bomb proof here,it did go off behind rip van winkle.
    And as for zarkava there were still many doubts over her when going into the arc,racing against the boys and she had been left in the stalls giving a number of lengths in it's previous races.
    And I cant quite recall kincsem:P


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    #113
    Shane732
    Registered Users Posts: 4,991 ✭✭✭Shane732


    Chriskavo wrote: »
    Didn't know that Shane - well then Garde would have to be the choice then.

    I think so but then jockey's aren't always right! I think everyone remembers Ruby in 2008!!


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    #114
    Chriskavo
    Closed Accounts Posts: 324 ✭✭Chriskavo


    Shane732 wrote: »
    I think Zenyatta and Zarkava, to name but a few, might disagree with you!

    Didn't Kincsem win like 50 races (undefeated) back in the 1800's?!

    You should try out the OLBG website - sounds like you know your stuff. I reckon its the best online betting site on the web with free tips and insider knowledge plus its absolutely free. Maybe you are already a member?


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    #115
    Shane732
    Registered Users Posts: 4,991 ✭✭✭Shane732


    Morgans wrote: »
    The cross-country races are Bolger's Gold Cup. Its all he wants to win every year. And, apologies for going on about it, but Freney's Well was beaten 40l by Another Jewel last time out.

    I do agree with you Another Jewel is over priced at anything above single figures.

    Freney's is in the form of his life at the moment so I reckon he'll be there or there abouts but will probably find a few too good on the day (hopefully GC)!!


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    #116
    Morgans
    Registered Users Posts: 4,361 ✭✭✭Morgans


    greetings wrote: »
    Yes but that is looking back,I mean before races.
    Zarkava going into the breeders' cup wasnt seen as bomb proof here,it did go off behind rip van winkle.
    And as for zarkava there were still many doubts over her when going into the arc,racing against the boys and she had been left in the stalls giving a number of lengths in it's previous races.
    And I cant quite recall kincsem:P

    No horse is bombproof. Thinking otherwise is just silly. Arkle breaking down meant he lost the King George despite being 30 odd pounds clear ratings wise. NO horse is bombproof.


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    #117
    UrbanSea
    Closed Accounts Posts: 18,335 ✭✭✭✭UrbanSea


    Morgans wrote: »
    No horse is bombproof. Thinking otherwise is just silly. Arkle breaking down meant he lost the King George despite being 30 odd pounds clear ratings wise. NO horse is bombproof.
    That's what I'm saying.


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    #118
    Shane732
    Registered Users Posts: 4,991 ✭✭✭Shane732


    Chriskavo wrote: »
    You should try out the OLBG website - sounds like you know your stuff. I reckon its the best online betting site on the web with free tips and insider knowledge plus its absolutely free. Maybe you are already a member?

    I wouldn't say that now. There's plenty of people out there that are much more knowledgeable that me on the subject!

    I'm just looking forward to joining a syndicate in a few years. I'm still a young lad to it'll be a few years until I get around to buying!

    Must look at the website - cheers!


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    #119
    pimpmyace
    Closed Accounts Posts: 24 ✭pimpmyace


    Morgans wrote: »
    The cross-country races are Bolger's Gold Cup. Its all he wants to win every year. And, apologies for going on about it, but Freney's Well was beaten 40l by Another Jewel last time out.

    I have to agree with you here, considering the odds it is worth a punt 4/1 place and if it wins nice 1

    galileo done something similar won by 30 lengths in his prep race and destroyed the field at 20s @ chelt


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    #120
    Chriskavo
    Closed Accounts Posts: 324 ✭✭Chriskavo


    Shane732 wrote: »
    I wouldn't say that now. There's plenty of people out there that are much more knowledgeable that me on the subject!

    I'm just looking forward to joining a syndicate in a few years. I'm still a young lad to it'll be a few years until I get around to buying!

    Must look at the website - cheers!

    It is brilliant and has definitely improved my knowledge of the game. Some really good tipsters on it too. Definitely worth a check and to anyone else out there who is looking for a decent betting site with no catches!.


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    #121
    Shane732
    Registered Users Posts: 4,991 ✭✭✭Shane732


    Right let move to another race:

    The Triumph Hurdle:

    I really don't know what to make of this race. If you look at the betting you'd think the race will be another win for Ireland but I'm not convinced.

    I just don't think Alaivan will get the job done.

    Advisor @ 10/1 looks like a small bit of value.


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