Cheltenham 2010, tips, hunchs and dead certs?

UrbanSea

I thought pittoni at 16/1 before his defeat there looked good.I dont know what to make about it because I wouldnt be surprsed if he was deliberately beaten. 25/1 now could do worse but I think it's open,carlito brigante looks solid

mdwexford

Fav is a pig.

No idea how hes shorter than Carlito Brigante in the market who looks to have a solid chance to me.

kumate_champ07

admiralofthefleet wrote: »

dunguib is a dead cert

tranqiul sea is another good one

no such thing!

Morgans

greetings wrote: »

I thought pittoni at 16/1 before his defeat there looked good.I dont know what to make about it because I wouldnt be surprsed if he was deliberately beaten. 25/1 now could do worse but I think it's open,carlito brigante looks solid

i wouldnt be surprised if there is something genuinely wrong with Byrnes yard. On face value, it was a stiff ask for a 4yo against older horses on desperate ground on a stiff track. I like that type for the triumph but he is simply not good enough. In the back of my mind is that he will recover his form for the 'pierse' next year. Carlito looks to be pretty solid and the good ground would be a proper negative for Alaivan.

UrbanSea

I dontunderstand how carlito isn't favorite.

Colonel Sanders

The Triumph is a strange one this year, really looks like a weak renewal

The favourite looks woeful value on his hurdles form although he was a 100+ horse on the flat.

Carlito Brigante looked good over hurdles but was slightly lower rated on the flat than most recent winners. On a line through Ultimate Soldatino has to come into it as well

Secant Star drifted badly on Betfair a while back so may have had a problem

I can't myself touching this race

UrbanSea

I doubt i will either.
Will be good too watch,might well be an outsider to come close in it

Chriskavo

Folks below is the opinions of some racing personalities at a recent Cheltenham preview night in Co Mayo. These are their thoughts regarding the Supreme Novices Chase which will open up the festival.

Preview Night Westport 9th March
David Duggan DD
Mick Fitzgerald MF
Andrew McNamara AM
Paul Ryan (Paddy Power) PR
Eddie Harty (EH)
　
Hosted very well by Jonathan Mullin from the RPost in aid of the Mayo/Roscommon Hospice
　
Supreme Novice:
DD - Dunguib won't be beaten, the only negative is the way he gets wound up before a race
MF - Bellvano will run in a handicap. Dunguib the choice but the jockey better not end up caught out too wide
PR - Paddy Power are either very brave or very foolish with their Dunguib concession - suspects they are very stupid
Dunguib is a superstar, the next Golden Cygnet and the jockey is not an issue
AM - Dunguib is an anxious horse but survived last year well enough, and will win despite his jumping. GMOH will be 2nd
EH - Cheltenham is actually quite a tight track and Captain Cee Bee was off the bridal early enough as they keep turning - this might
also catch out Dunguib. suggests backing SMOH without Dunguib as Pipe was gobsmacked he beat his horse so easily last time

Chriskavo

And their views on the Triumph -

Preview Night Westport 9th March
David Duggan DD
Mick Fitzgerald MF
Andrew McNamara AM
Paul Ryan (Paddy Power) PR
Eddie Harty (EH)
　
Hosted very well by Jonathan Mullin from the RPost in aid of the Mayo/Roscommon Hospice
　
Triumph:
DD - Quite like Pittoni and Carlito Brigante but can see a very strange result in this race
MF - Westlin Winds is a decent price and should be shorter. Soldatino a "fractious" horse and the Triumph was a bit of an after thought. Sweet on Advisor
and reckoned Ruby may ride it
AM - We will ride a different race on Alivan this time - learned a lot about the horse when beaten behind Carlito Brigante. Took 15 schooling sessions to teach Alivan
how to jump a hurdle - not straightforward but getting better
EH - A fan of Carlito Brigante but its a race to go for a beer really
PR - Better class horses starting to hold sway with the new format. Gordon Elliot pretty sweet on his horse. Soldatino has been well backed. probably would go for Secant Star EW

The jock

Its been a while since I've posted anything but I'll give my opinions for next weeks festival:

Tuesday:
Supreme Novices Hurdle:
They only thing that can beat Dunguib is its self. Philip Fenton just trains up the road from me and the word is that he's improved big time since his last run. He went for a gallop last week in Tipperary and did 1mile 4 without breaking sweat. Dunguib is a box walker, doesn't travel well and gets worked up before his races. I wouldnt be worried about his jumping as there will be a fast pace set. I can see Dunguib coming round the final bend on the bridle and cruises past Get Me Out of Here up the Cheltenham hill.

Arkle:
I really like Riverside Theatre and Osana e.w in this. I would lay Captain Cee Bee.

William Hill Chase:
Bensalem has been laid out for this race but I think if the ground comes up on the soft side he wont go well in it. Bensalem isnt the best of jumpers and needs good ground so I would lay him. I like Ogee and Lenabane in this race at big prices. Ogee won a big novices hurdle race at the Aintree festival last season and was a talented stayer on the flat. Novice Chasers have a great record in this race and both he and Lenabane are novice's.

Champion Hurdle:
I think Go Native is a quirky horse and could be a big disappointment. Last years winner Punjabi will be there abouts again but I think he may find one or two too good. This race is usually won by 2nd year hurdlers, the one who stands out to me is Merdermit.I also like Donna's Palm at a big price e.w

Cross Country Race:
I'm a huge Garde Champetre fan and I've been on him ante post for the last 2 seasons but I think L'ami will get the better of him this year. Last year L'ami made the running and was caught late on by Garde Champatre. L'ami will get 4lbs off Garde this year which will prove crucial.L'ami was only beaten 9 lengths last time out in a prep race by Rite of Passage. L'ami will be ridden from behind and should win.Its my banker of the festival.

Mares Race:
Aura about You e.w. Was 3rd in the race last year and has improved, will be closer to Quevega who had a interrupted preparation.

Wednesday:
National Hunt Chase:
I really like Synchronised in this, it should out stay alot of horses in this 4 mile race and Jonjo O Neill has an excellent record in this race.The Irish trained Barcardero is the dark horse in the race, its been running over 2 mile trips this season and was flying up the hill at Clonmel last time out.The extra trip will suit it.

Neptune Hurdle:
Whatever finishes in front of Quel Esprit will win, he was 4th in the chelt bumper last year to Dunguib and had Rite of Passage a length infront. Some Present who was 2nd in that race is 25/1 and is great e.w value.

RSA Chase:
This will turn into a stamina test and I think Weapons Amnesty will outstay Long Run and Punchestowns. Weapons Amnesty won at the festival last season over the same trip and is a great price at 9/1.

Champion Chase:
Master Minded should win easy but I like the chances of Oh Crick without MM e.w.

Coral Cup:
Mourad has been a big gamble but I fancy another Irish horse in this in Time Electric at 25/1. This horse was once touted as the Cheltenham bumper winner but it didnt live up to that form. Its form in handicap races is still pretty good though. I spoke to Davy Russell after he rode it in last years Galway Hurdle where it was a fast finishing 5th. He said the horse needs to be put up in trip on a uphill course and Cheltenham would be perfect for it. Its last run was at Cheltenham where it was a fast finishing 5th again but it was over a shorter trip than that of the coral cup. James De Vassy looks like a horse taylor maid for this race and is another with a great chance.

Fred Winter Hurdle:
The worst race at the festival and I dont have much of an interest in it other than Fin Vin de Leu who was impressive last time out at a lesser track.

Champion Bumper:
One word "Bishopsfurze"

Thursday:
Jewson Chase:
The Hollinwell is great value at the moment, 4 of the top 7 in the betting will run in other races and his price will soon go. He's a big horse and could make into a Gold Cup contender someday.

Ryanair Chase:
I'm a big Schindlers Hunt fan. He was 3rd in the race last season and could go a few better this year. He was 3rd in the Irish Hennessy last time out to Joncol and cooldine which was over a trip too far for it.Cooldine is 3rd fav for the Gold Cup, Schinders wasnt too far behind him as his stamina ran out.Back in trip Schinders should outstay alot of its rivals.

World Hurdle:
The only bet here is Powerstation e.w w/o Big Bucks at 16/1. Its been places at the festival for the past 3 seasons and could run 2nd to Big Bucks.

Byrne Chase:
Chapoturgeon is my only interest in this race, winner at the festival last season and has a low weight.

Kim Muir Chase:
In Compliance is the class horse here, the horse has had its injuries over the years and was one time thought of as a Gold Cup horse. It hasnt won in a year or two which lead to is dropping in weight, get on it now at 16/1.

Friday:
Triumph Hurdle:
Not much interest here but I like Pittoni e.w

County Hurdle:
Noble Prince and Puyol here more me e.w

Albert Bartlet Hurdle:
The Betchworth Kid should outstay most of these and will have a good turn of foot, was a one time classy flat horse.

Gold Cup:
I would lay Denman....I wouldnt back Kauto as its no value...I think the best bet here would be Imperial Commander w/o Kauto. I also like My Will at 50/1 w/o Kauto and Denman e.w 1,2,3 places.

Foxhunters Chase:
Dun Doire and On the Net E.W in a dreadful race

Martin Pipe Hurdle:
Oldrik e.w, it was flashing home in the Totesport trophy(5th)

Grand Annual Chase:
I really like Lennon and Nicanor also e.w

sonic.trip

So far I have a lucky 15 on big bucks, master minded, kauto star and dunguib

20double on kauto and st nicholas abbey for the 2000 guineas

and 10 e/w on what a friend

more to do before next week:D

torn between sizing europe and captain cee bee
think drumbaloo will win the champion bumber

podsieboy

this is my 2 cents on cheltenham all these prices of wat betpack were currently offerin yesterday

TUESDAY
Supreme Nov: Menorah 12 lucky william 100 each way of course
champion hurdle: Kyber Kim 8s think he has a good profile comin into the race
cross country: Garde Champetre

WEDNESDAY
Neptune novices:Peddlers Cross 8s
RSA:Long run 5/2 cant see him bein beaten back him for the gold cup next year
Champion Bumper:drumbaloo 10s but i think mullins is bein very low profile about his chances this year and takes another look
Coral Cup:if beshabar 10s runs he wins a will stay all day

THURSDAY
Pretemps:alfie sheerin 5's
World Hurdle: war of attrition or powerstation i will be puttin my money on powerstation

Friday
triumph:soldatino or son amix
Albert Bart:tell massini think hes a certainy
Gold cup: Cooldine with out the top 2

Chriskavo

The jock wrote: »

Its been a while since I've posted anything but I'll give my opinions for next weeks festival:

Tuesday:
Supreme Novices Hurdle:
They only thing that can beat Dunguib is its self. Philip Fenton just trains up the road from me and the word is that he's improved big time since his last run. He went for a gallop last week in Tipperary and did 1mile 4 without breaking sweat. Dunguib is a box walker, doesn't travel well and gets worked up before his races. I wouldnt be worried about his jumping as there will be a fast pace set. I can see Dunguib coming round the final bend on the bridle and cruises past Get Me Out of Here up the Cheltenham hill.

Arkle:
I really like Riverside Theatre and Osana e.w in this. I would lay Captain Cee Bee.

William Hill Chase:
Bensalem has been laid out for this race but I think if the ground comes up on the soft side he wont go well in it. Bensalem isnt the best of jumpers and needs good ground so I would lay him. I like Ogee and Lenabane in this race at big prices. Ogee won a big novices hurdle race at the Aintree festival last season and was a talented stayer on the flat. Novice Chasers have a great record in this race and both he and Lenabane are novice's.

Champion Hurdle:
I think Go Native is a quirky horse and could be a big disappointment. Last years winner Punjabi will be there abouts again but I think he may find one or two too good. This race is usually won by 2nd year hurdlers, the one who stands out to me is Merdermit.I also like Donna's Palm at a big price e.w

Cross Country Race:
I'm a huge Garde Champetre fan and I've been on him ante post for the last 2 seasons but I think L'ami will get the better of him this year. Last year L'ami made the running and was caught late on by Garde Champatre. L'ami will get 4lbs off Garde this year which will prove crucial.L'ami was only beaten 9 lengths last time out in a prep race by Rite of Passage. L'ami will be ridden from behind and should win.Its my banker of the festival.

Mares Race:
Aura about You e.w. Was 3rd in the race last year and has improved, will be closer to Quevega who had a interrupted preparation.

Wednesday:
National Hunt Chase:
I really like Synchronised in this, it should out stay alot of horses in this 4 mile race and Jonjo O Neill has an excellent record in this race.The Irish trained Barcardero is the dark horse in the race, its been running over 2 mile trips this season and was flying up the hill at Clonmel last time out.The extra trip will suit it.

Neptune Hurdle:
Whatever finishes in front of Quel Esprit will win, he was 4th in the chelt bumper last year to Dunguib and had Rite of Passage a length infront. Some Present who was 2nd in that race is 25/1 and is great e.w value.

RSA Chase:
This will turn into a stamina test and I think Weapons Amnesty will outstay Long Run and Punchestowns. Weapons Amnesty won at the festival last season over the same trip and is a great price at 9/1.

Champion Chase:
Master Minded should win easy but I like the chances of Oh Crick without MM e.w.

Coral Cup:
Mourad has been a big gamble but I fancy another Irish horse in this in Time Electric at 25/1. This horse was once touted as the Cheltenham bumper winner but it didnt live up to that form. Its form in handicap races is still pretty good though. I spoke to Davy Russell after he rode it in last years Galway Hurdle where it was a fast finishing 5th. He said the horse needs to be put up in trip on a uphill course and Cheltenham would be perfect for it. Its last run was at Cheltenham where it was a fast finishing 5th again but it was over a shorter trip than that of the coral cup. James De Vassy looks like a horse taylor maid for this race and is another with a great chance.

Fred Winter Hurdle:
The worst race at the festival and I dont have much of an interest in it other than Fin Vin de Leu who was impressive last time out at a lesser track.

Champion Bumper:
One word "Bishopsfurze"

Thursday:
Jewson Chase:
The Hollinwell is great value at the moment, 4 of the top 7 in the betting will run in other races and his price will soon go. He's a big horse and could make into a Gold Cup contender someday.

Ryanair Chase:
I'm a big Schindlers Hunt fan. He was 3rd in the race last season and could go a few better this year. He was 3rd in the Irish Hennessy last time out to Joncol and cooldine which was over a trip too far for it.Cooldine is 3rd fav for the Gold Cup, Schinders wasnt too far behind him as his stamina ran out.Back in trip Schinders should outstay alot of its rivals.

World Hurdle:
The only bet here is Powerstation e.w w/o Big Bucks at 16/1. Its been places at the festival for the past 3 seasons and could run 2nd to Big Bucks.

Byrne Chase:
Chapoturgeon is my only interest in this race, winner at the festival last season and has a low weight.

Kim Muir Chase:
In Compliance is the class horse here, the horse has had its injuries over the years and was one time thought of as a Gold Cup horse. It hasnt won in a year or two which lead to is dropping in weight, get on it now at 16/1.

Friday:
Triumph Hurdle:
Not much interest here but I like Pittoni e.w

County Hurdle:
Noble Prince and Puyol here more me e.w

Albert Bartlet Hurdle:
The Betchworth Kid should outstay most of these and will have a good turn of foot, was a one time classy flat horse.

Gold Cup:
I would lay Denman....I wouldnt back Kauto as its no value...I think the best bet here would be Imperial Commander w/o Kauto. I also like My Will at 50/1 w/o Kauto and Denman e.w 1,2,3 places.

Foxhunters Chase:
Dun Doire and On the Net E.W in a dreadful race

Martin Pipe Hurdle:
Oldrik e.w, it was flashing home in the Totesport trophy(5th)

Grand Annual Chase:
I really like Lennon and Nicanor also e.w

Thanks Jock for those views and putting in the effort to write them. Definitely has given me some food for thought on a few of them.

podsieboy

forgot to say i really fancy kilty storm in the foxhunters

RichieLawlor

The jock wrote: »

Arkle:
I really like Riverside Theatre and Osana e.w in this. I would lay Captain Cee Bee.

Champion Hurdle:
I think Go Native is a quirky horse and could be a big disappointment. Last years winner Punjabi will be there abouts again but I think he may find one or two too good. This race is usually won by 2nd year hurdlers, the one who stands out to me is Merdermit.I also like Donna's Palm at a big price e.w

Neptune Hurdle:
Whatever finishes in front of Quel Esprit will win, he was 4th in the chelt bumper last year to Dunguib and had Rite of Passage a length infront. Some Present who was 2nd in that race is 25/1 and is great e.w value.


RSA Chase:
This will turn into a stamina test and I think Weapons Amnesty will outstay Long Run and Punchestowns. Weapons Amnesty won at the festival last season over the same trip and is a great price at 9/1.


Ryanair Chase:
I'm a big Schindlers Hunt fan. He was 3rd in the race last season and could go a few better this year. He was 3rd in the Irish Hennessy last time out to Joncol and cooldine which was over a trip too far for it.Cooldine is 3rd fav for the Gold Cup, Schinders wasnt too far behind him as his stamina ran out.Back in trip Schinders should outstay alot of its rivals.

Im not having a go here, these are just my observations on your selections

Osana will be unplaced in this, doesnt jump well enough, well held on all known form.

How is Go Native quirky, just beacause there is only one way of riding him doesnt mean he is quirky.

Some present has been beaten all ends up by dunguib this season and at no stage did he look like he needed further.

Weapons Amnestys run in the AB last year wasnt within a stone of Punchestowns run in the WH, while i agree he is a good value bet, there is no way he outstays the other two

I have no idea what your on about in the Ryanair, stamina doubts, outstaying the others. im confused

ghosttown

I guess we all have opinions, at this stage I'll wait til the morning line at 0830 each day before deciding who to place my hard earned on, but am subscribing so i see the thoughts on here.... Will also put up my thoughts each morning of the meeting....
So far, I've just invested €63 on a .5 eachway lucky 63, which as of today has already become a lucky 31, who calls them 'lucky' ? the bookies ?:)

Supreme Novices - Gen Miller 33/1
Arkle - Sizing Europe 13/2
Champ Hurdle - Kyber Kim - 10/1
Neptune - Fionnegas - 16/1
RSA - Uimearacheathair - 20/1 (now non runner, bet placed before NRNB)
Bumper - Bishopsfurze - 16/1

Anyway, best of luck everyone for next week. Roll on Tuesday morning, or Monday evening preview if C4 are showing one !!

venividivici

I thought I was definitly going with CCB in the Arkle, 'til this morning, David Duggan made, IMO, an excellent case for Sizing Europe on ATR, apart from these two I just can't see anything else going close.

Anyway I've been going through Wednesday's card and this is what I've come up with so far. Any/all opinions welcome.

Nat. H.Ch: Fabalu
Neptune: Peddlers Cross
RSA: Weird Al
QMC Ch: Big Zeb
Coral: Andytown
Fred Win: Orzare
Bumper: Up Ou That??

RichieLawlor

venividivici wrote: »

I thought I was definitly going with CCB in the Arkle, 'til this morning, David Duggan made, IMO, an excellent case for Sizing Europe on ATR, apart from these two I just can't see anything else going close.

Anyway I've been going through Wednesday's card and this is what I've come up with so far. Any/all opinions welcome.

Nat. H.Ch: Fabalu
Neptune: Peddlers Cross
RSA: Weird Al
QMC Ch: Big Zeb
Coral: Andytown
Fred Win: Orzare
Bumper: Up Ou That??

I'd like to back Big Zeb not to get round in the QMCC, he's like Beef or Salmon, doesn't like England at all

venividivici

Could someone a bit more in the know than myself also please tell me what these two horses prefered races might be at the festival, Andytown and Wolf Moon?!

Colonel Sanders

venividivici wrote: »

Could someone a bit more in the know than myself also please tell me what these two horses prefered races might be at the festival, Andytown and Wolf Moon?!

I think Henderson said Andytown goes for The Pertemps Final

Colonel Sanders

The Pertemps is the target for Ainama and Andytown.

From here

bit of a bogey

Fair play jock for a well written post.

The jock wrote: »

Its been a while since I've posted anything but I'll give my opinions for next weeks festival..........

Ryanair Chase:
I'm a big Schindlers Hunt fan. He was 3rd in the race last season and could go a few better this year. He was 3rd in the Irish Hennessy last time out to Joncol and cooldine which was over a trip too far for it.Cooldine is 3rd fav for the Gold Cup, Schinders wasnt too far behind him as his stamina ran out.Back in trip Schinders should outstay alot of its rivals

I totally agree with you here. He doesnt get 3 miles and the ryanair is right up his alley. He hasnt won in a long time but on good ground I think he'll put in a performance even better that last year! At 12/1 he's a great e/w bet!

MidnightQueen

The jock wrote: »

Its been a while since I've posted anything but I'll give my opinions for next weeks festival:

Nice one for the tips Peter! Hope your keeping well!

gandroid

RichieLawlor wrote: »

I'd like to back Big Zeb not to get round in the QMCC, he's like Beef or Salmon, doesn't like England at all

I would have to agree, he's as likely to fall as he is to get around.

MidnightQueen

I'm putting these 3 in for a treble at 15/1 : Dunguib, Masterminded and Denman.

ForeverYoung90

Ok,Im really looking forward to Cheltenham and I have a few horses I want to back.My question is when I go to back eg.FLAT OUR 20/1 (PaddyPowers) in the Supreme Novices should I ask to take the odds or the starting price?
Thanks.

RichieLawlor

ForeverYoung90 wrote: »

Ok,Im really looking forward to Cheltenham and I have a few horses I want to back.My question is when I go to back eg.FLAT OUR 20/1 (PaddyPowers) in the Supreme Novices should I ask to take the odds or the starting price?
Thanks.

Wait till Monday, go into powers and take the price, there guaranteed

dicknorris

ForeverYoung90 wrote: »

Ok,Im really looking forward to Cheltenham and I have a few horses I want to back.My question is when I go to back eg.FLAT OUR 20/1 (PaddyPowers) in the Supreme Novices should I ask to take the odds or the starting price?
Thanks.

Take the price now, price guaranteed, and most bookies doing no run no bet (except V C bet)

stenan

heres an artical in the mirror on Go Native

http://www.mirror.co.uk/sport/racing...5875-22094000/

Also have a look here: http://www.cheltenhamfestival.net/champion-hurdle.php Medermit mite be a safe each way bet!!!

7/1 at the moment in paddypower

ForeverYoung90

dicknorris wrote: »

Take the price now, price guaranteed, and most bookies doing no run no bet (except V C bet)

v c bet?