Paris - Nice Prediction Thread

Funkyzeit

Looking forward to this - if it's half the excitement that last year was we'll be in for a good one.

Current Betting here.
http://www.sportingbet.com/Cycling;Paris-Nice-2010;Outright-Winner/ECMARKET/3/234130/3

Boringly going for Berti - he'll be out for revenge after that bonk last year - if his TTing is anything like last year he'll probably win it by opening a gap over rivals and shadowing them on climbs.

Hopefully Nick can get in a break on one of the 4 flat stages...

drogdub

8/1 on Shanez looks like a good price to me.

But my vote goes to Valverde

sy

Should be fun on the last 2 stages as quite a bit of climbing. The 10% 3km finish into Mende on stage 4 should suit Valverde. Bert should win the prologue but Valverde and Luis Leon Sanchez seemed very strong in the Tour Down under so expect a great race if they can squeeze Bertie on the final 2 stages. Chavanel will attack and attack but the final climbs may be too much for him. Expect Johnny Hoogerland (love the name) and Roche to have good crack at winning a tough lumpy stage 3 into Aurillac or stage 5 into Aix En Provence. Very hard to know who is going well. . This is a tough race, if you look at the profiles of the last 5 stages there is quite a bit of climbing (and remember the great man won it 7 years on the trot!) Some of the stages are not unlike a mini version of Liege Bastogne Liege a race I would love to see Contador riding.

Tony Martin is my outside bet

Chips Lovell

Hard to see beyond Contador. Roche to have a better race than expected.

crashoveroid

Levi Leipheimer for me

Captain Havoc

Starts 14h50 (in 15 mins from now) on Eurosport 1.

TheToecutter

Anyone know of any live streams?

levitronix

el tonto wrote: »

Hard to see beyond Contador. Roche to have a better race than expected.

Id fancy roche for a good break away and a stage win AG2 dont really have a strong looking team here he might have a chance of getting away and not have to play domestque to much

sy

That was a great finish.

This guy Sagan has just turned 20! Lets hope its raw talent and another exciting prospect for the future! Well done Roche a brave attempt to win the stage but Friday is another possibility.
Jens is from another planet. Quote from after the stage After the last climb, I was really on the edge. Alberto (Contador) wanted me to help him in the final kilometers but I was really exhausted

Must remind myself to repeat the following mantra every day:
"shut up legs"
"shut up legs"
"shut up legs"

sy

Great finish to todays (Friday) stage. Roche is really have a great race. Bodes well for the Summer. As for Sagan, well last time I was that impressed, it was with a guy called Ricco. Lets hope this guy is for real as boy can he ride a bike.
Saturdays stage will be fun as lots of hills

Chips Lovell

I was very impressed by Roche yesterday. He saw there was a split in the bunch containing some people ahead of him on GC and he got his team to the front and had them absolutely drill it. I was a bit disappointed that it only moved him up two places to 13th, but I think that was David Harmon's fault as he led us to believe there was more top 15 people in the 2nd group than there really way. He also was going on and on about Ag2r riding at the front to set up a stage win for Roche and only seemed to realise late in the day that it was all for GC position.

ROK ON

el tonto wrote: »

I was very impressed by Roche yesterday. He saw there was a split in the bunch containing some people ahead of him on GC and he got his team to the front and had them absolutely drill it. I was a bit disappointed that it only moved him up two places to 13th, but I think that was David Harmon's fault as he led us to believe there was more top 15 people in the 2nd group than there really way. He also was going on and on about Ag2r riding at the front to set up a stage win for Roche and only seemed to realise late in the day that it was all for GC position.

Can someone explain some of the tactics. While I think Roche was ballsy in trying to move up the field, should he himself let his team do the pulling. He seemed to spend a hell of a lot of time at the front himself driving the pace. While he is not an out an out sprinter would he have been better keeping something in the tank for a final push under the 1km mark, or was he trying to drive another split. A lot of tactics go over my head to be honest.

Beasty

ROK ON wrote: »

Can someone explain some of the tactics. While I think Roche was ballsy in trying to move up the field, should he himself let his team do the pulling. He seemed to spend a hell of a lot of time at the front himself driving the pace. While he is not an out an out sprinter would he have been better keeping something in the tank for a final push under the 1km mark, or was he trying to drive another split. A lot of tactics go over my head to be honest.

I think you are absolutely right ROK ON. The Eurosport commentators were talking a lot about Roche, and how the team were lining him up yesterday, but were also suggesting he was doing too much work himself. He should have trusted the team to get him into the right position, and may well have been able to go with Sagan in that final push. Seems to me he made a big mistake, but hopefully he'll learn from it, and take his chance next time.
I do think his overall performance this week has been excellent, and hopefully he's now ready to make that breakthrough.