Will house prices drop anymore?

beeno67

ei.sdraob wrote: »

except thats exactly what Brian L. is doing, betting billions on a future rise, with our money

Oh ei.sdraob, get over it. You are not in favour of NAMA, great. That is pretty irrelevant to this discussion. There are enough posts on NAMA

ei.sdraob

beeno67 wrote: »

Oh ei.sdraob, get over it. You are not in favour of NAMA, great. That is pretty irrelevant to this discussion. There are enough posts on NAMA

how is a government entity that will soon control so much of the supply "pretty irrelevant to the discussion" ?

if you cant see the relationship between NAMA and prices then im sorry for you

jmayo

smccarrick wrote: »

I saw in the Business Post at the weekend- that Irish Life and Permanent, have taken a unilateral decision to devalue their residential property portfolios by 55%...... there is plenty of blood in the water yet........

Any sharks ?

spockety wrote: »

I don't think you've seen anything yet. I would wager on the introduction of even longer mortgage terms, multi-generational mortgages, etc.

When things get desperate, the desperate will do desperate things.

oh dear God not any more of these nonsenical products that just are a way of justifying a current high price. :mad:

beeno67 wrote: »

Oh ei.sdraob, get over it. You are not in favour of NAMA, great. That is pretty irrelevant to this discussion. There are enough posts on NAMA

Ehh I think NAMA is relevant to this thread since according to some proponents it will control the release of property onto the market, thus keeping property prices high so that it doesn't lose too much on the loans and doesn't impact the banks too much with defaults etc.
In other words some people see nama as nice way to keep artifical floor on property prices. :mad:

beeno67

jmayo wrote: »

Ehh I think NAMA is relevant to this thread since according to some proponents it will control the release of property onto the market, thus keeping property prices high so that it doesn't lose too much on the loans and doesn't impact the banks too much with defaults etc.
In other words some people see nama as nice way to keep artifical floor on property prices. :mad:

And you think that is what he meant when he said

wrote:

some people in this thread expecting 25% rise in 10 years

tsk tsk tsk

anyone from this forum wants to go over and share some wisdom

testicle

ei.sdraob wrote: »

how is a government entity that will soon control so much of the supply "pretty irrelevant to the discussion" ?

if you cant see the relationship between NAMA and prices then im sorry for you

NAMA is taking over debt, not houses.

ei.sdraob

testicle wrote: »

NAMA is taking over debt, not houses.

development company walks away from debt, NAMA is left with whatever houses, land, property is left over

D3PO

ei.sdraob wrote: »

development company walks away from debt, NAMA is left with whatever houses, land, property is left over

Yes the same way a bank takes over a house if they take on a reposession case and win. That doesnt mean when they give you a mortgage they are taking on a house though ...

ei.sdraob

D3PO wrote: »

Yes the same way a bank takes over a house if they take on a reposession case and win. That doesnt mean when they give you a mortgage they are taking on a house though ...

its in NAMAs stated interest to hold back as much property from the market over a period of time, hence controlling supply and preventing prices from correcting

that is highly relevant to the discussion on the direction of house prices and property/land in general

The_Conductor

ei.sdraob wrote: »

its in NAMAs stated interest to hold back as much property from the market over a period of time, hence controlling supply and preventing prices from correcting

that is highly relevant to the discussion on the direction of house prices and property/land in general

On a related note- its NAMA's stated intention to divest itself of its portfolio over a 10 year period- possibly returning zoned lands to agricultural purposes or demolishing estates particularly in rural areas.

As very little of the property they intend on taking on- is actually on the open market anyhow- drip feeding units over time should by rights have a minimal impact on the residential housing market. Its thought NAMAs main impact may in fact be in commercial properties- think of all those out of town developments in relatively low density locations- they'll be prime fodder......

AARRRRGH

Deleted User wrote: »

True, best anyone can do is look at the current trend and continue the trend into the future, factoring in what effects economic "tinkering" could have.

Currently the trend is southbound with "tinkering" forcing the line to go further south, despite the best efforts of VI's to reverse these trends.

oh oh. You sound just like the the people who thought the trend going northbound was going to keep going and going. There is a lot of that around.

ei.sdraob

smccarrick wrote: »

On a related note- its NAMA's stated intention to divest itself of its portfolio over a 10 year period- possibly returning zoned lands to agricultural purposes or demolishing estates particularly in rural areas.

As very little of the property they intend on taking on- is actually on the open market anyhow- drip feeding units over time should by rights have a minimal impact on the residential housing market. Its thought NAMAs main impact may in fact be in commercial properties- think of all those out of town developments in relatively low density locations- they'll be prime fodder......

yes most of their portfolio is commercial

that will keep up rents up, putting more companies/shops out of business

more unemployment, less to spend on housing


like it or not NAMA is the big elephant in the room full of fragile china

AARRRRGH

AARRRRGH wrote: »

oh oh. You sound just like the the people who thought the trend going northbound was going to keep going and going. There is a lot of that around.

No! following a trend into a "reaslistic area" as it is now makes a lot more sense than seeing one that is going so far north that it needs oxygen to breath. House prices in 2000 were already too high, I could already see that fack then, and yes I could also see that they were going to continue to increase, which they did. Doesn't mean it was a good thing, in fact history has already proven that it was far from good!

AARRRRGH

Deleted User wrote: »

No! following a trend into a "reaslistic area" as it is now makes a lot more sense than seeing one that is going so far north that it needs oxygen to breath. House prices in 2000 were already too high, I could already see that fack then, and yes I could also see that they were going to continue to increase, which they did. Doesn't mean it was a good thing, in fact history has already proven that it was far from good!

What im saying is that you cannot predict how things will be 10 years down the line in anything. Its impossible.
Anyone who can predict events 10 years down the line would be so rich and off having a great time on their riches that they wouldnt have time to be posting on boards

What people do is guess what will happen over that kind of timeline. If you think you can tell with any accuracy what the economic landscape will be like in 10 years, you are only fooling yourself. But if you can, i want to be your friend because you must be loaded.

Just some examples of how things change in the space of 10 years.

http://www.infoplease.com/ipa/A0001251.html

ei.sdraob

AARRRRGH wrote: »

What im saying is that you cannot predict how things will be 10 years down the line in anything. Its impossible.
Anyone who can predict events 10 years down the line would be so rich and off having a great time on their riches that they wouldnt have time to be posting on boards

What people do is guess what will happen over that kind of timeline. If you think you can tell with any accuracy what the economic landscape will be like in 10 years, you are only fooling yourself. But if you can, i want to be your friend because you must be loaded.

Just some examples of how things change in the space of 10 years.

http://www.infoplease.com/ipa/A0001251.html

theres more than 10 years worth of empty commercial property in Dublin alone (1million sq meters) at the rate of usage of last few years (about 100k a year)

there ya go

now take a wild guess as to what so much supply will do to prices? and some building is still going on

D3PO

ei.sdraob wrote: »

its in NAMAs stated interest to hold back as much property from the market over a period of time, hence controlling supply and preventing prices from correcting

that is highly relevant to the discussion on the direction of house prices and property/land in general

its NAMA's stated interest to manage the loans in their portfolio number 1. Managing property or assets taken on by defaults is secondary to that, and if that happens then quite rightly they will drip feed.

Poople need to think of NAMA as a business, bucasue thats essentially what it is and as such it will take financial decisions to protect its (ie the taxpayers investment)

now boo hoo if that in some way manipulates prices but getting the financial system back into order in this country is the end goal.

P.S I wouldnt have gone with NAMA but thats what we have so like it or not we have to embrace it.

ei.sdraob

D3PO wrote: »

its NAMA's stated interest to manage the loans in their portfolio number 1. Managing property or assets taken on by defaults is secondary to that, and if that happens then quite rightly they will drip feed.

Poople need to think of NAMA as a business, bucasue thats essentially what it is and as such it will take financial decisions to protect its (ie the taxpayers investment)

now boo hoo if that in some way manipulates prices but getting the financial system back into order in this country is the end goal.

P.S I wouldnt have gone with NAMA but thats what we have so like it or not we have to embrace it.

embrace it or not the point being made it will affect prices one way or another

you can not interfere in the market on such a level and expect nothing to change

D3PO

agreed but thats an inevitable consequence of NAMA.

but people seem to forget something always manipulates the market, always has always will.

• Stamp duty manipulates the market,
• upwards only rent reivews for commerical properties manipulate the market,
• interest rates manipulate the market,
• tax breaks like section 22 etc manipulated the market,
• the fact that many commerical are run by pension funds only interested in ROI manipulates the market
• the fact BOI will give a min mortgage of 180k (i think its 180 anyway) manipulates the market
• Mortgage products like 100% mortages 40 year mortgages etc manipulated the market

I could go on and on, I really dont understand the fascination with NAMA though. It slike people thnk the market isnt manipluated in many many other ways

ei.sdraob

D3PO wrote: »

agreed but thats an inevitable consequence of NAMA.

but people seem to forget something always manipulates the market, always has always will.

• Stamp duty manipulates the market,
• upwards only rent reivews for commerical properties manipulate the market,
• interest rates manipulate the market,
• tax breaks like section 22 etc manipulate the market,
• the fact that many commerical are run by pension funds only interested in ROI manipulates the market
• the fact BOI will give a min mortgage of 180k (i think its 180 anyway) manipulates the market

I could go on, I really dont understand the fascination with NAMA though. It slike people thnk the market isnt manipluated in many many other ways

because NAMA is so frigging big, and if it goes south we would have to pay for it via taxation

more taxation -> less to spend on houses/mortgages etc

D3PO

change that sentence from we would have to to we will have to pay for it in taxation.

remember when AIB shafted the government in the 80's ? This is the same thing on a bigger scale

we have an idealess government a completly inept cabinet with perhaps Martin being the exception.

you get what you vote for unfortunatly.

ei.sdraob

D3PO wrote: »

change that sentence from we would have to to we will have to pay for it in taxation.

remember when AIB shafted the government in the 80's ? This is the same thing on a bigger scale

we have an idealess government a completly inept cabinet with perhaps Martin being the exception.

you get what you vote for unfortunatly.

i didn't vote for them, and neither did i get involved in property gamble

i did buy a house recently with no debt involved so whatever way prices go dont matter to me, rather a nice large house in area i want than money in a bankrupt bank guaranteed by a bankrupt government
but what does matter to me is having to pay taxes to bailout reckless people and organisations instead of that money going on useful things such as infrastructure

AARRRRGH

AARRRRGH wrote: »

What people do is guess what will happen over that kind of timeline. If you think you can tell with any accuracy what the economic landscape will be like in 10 years, you are only fooling yourself. But if you can, i want to be your friend because you must be loaded.

If i was to put money on my previous guesses I would have bought in about 1997 and cashed in about 2003, so I would have jumped out of the market too early!

As for timing, I didn't follow my instincts at all, I bought a house in the UK in 1989 (my instingts at the time said wait!!! But I ignored it:eek::rolleyes:) followed by a few years of negative equity + inflation followed by another boom! sold in 2005 for the same value (4x salary) as I bought it for! A lousy investment but over the years I had it cheap living!

What I should have done was waited two years and got the house for 2/3 the cost!

This time is different! unless there is a major war, oil crisis or similar, then a long period of deflation or low growth is on the cards. It will be a long time before banks have the confidence to lend more than 80% of the cost of buying a house and as many don't have the 20% saved then prices will continue to fall.

AARRRRGH

ei.sdraob wrote: »

theres more than 10 years worth of empty commercial property in Dublin alone (1million sq meters) at the rate of usage of last few years (about 100k a year)

there ya go

now take a wild guess as to what so much supply will do to prices? and some building is still going on

You must be loaded by now so. You can predict the future. Do let us know where to invest.

AARRRRGH

AARRRRGH wrote: »

You must be loaded by now so. You can predict the future. Do let us know where to invest.

Oil storage depots!

peaceboi

Me also, recently booked a 3 bed,semi detached @ Tyrlestown, dublin-15.
Is a new development, was 3,10,000 last yr, nw 2,30,000. Bank says tey would lend only 92%. I 've got 3 more weeks to pull out from the deal, Used houses in region guide price is 200,000. Dunoo, if am making the right step nw. Just Hoping 4 the best.:rolleyes:

ei.sdraob

AARRRRGH wrote: »

You must be loaded by now so. You can predict the future. Do let us know where to invest.

I dont like the idea of Brian L

gambling 12000 for each man woman and child in the country on property rising 25% in next 10 years

me (and you) are being forced to invest in this whether we like it or not

The_Conductor

EU Commission warns Ireland that its economic forecasts are irrationally rosy, and the current austerity drive, which forecasts an additional 3 billion being cut from the budget in both 2011 and 2012, is patently insufficient......

http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/breaking/2010/0317/breaking36.html

Senna

IMHO i think property will continue to drop till the the nationally average house prices statistics put the price at 120-130k, its currently around 210k.

ei.sdraob

Senna wrote: »

IMHO i think property will continue to drop till the the nationally average house prices statistics put the price at 120-130k, its currently around 210k.

4 * 36,000 (average wage) = 144,000 ...


you're not too far off me thinks

Senna

Senna wrote: »

IMHO i think property will continue to drop till the the nationally average house prices statistics put the price at 120-130k, its currently around 210k.

Agreed! that'll be the ballpark for a bog-standard suburban semi in good condition in a decent area, everything else will be relative to that.

Those figures assume that there won't be too severe of a wage deflation in the coming years, as I guessing you are basing those figures on an average industrial wage of 35k PA.

dtipp

D3PO wrote: »

its NAMA's stated interest to manage the loans in their portfolio number 1. Managing property or assets taken on by defaults is secondary to that, and if that happens then quite rightly they will drip feed.

Poople need to think of NAMA as a business, bucasue thats essentially what it is and as such it will take financial decisions to protect its (ie the taxpayers investment)

now boo hoo if that in some way manipulates prices but getting the financial system back into order in this country is the end goal.

P.S I wouldnt have gone with NAMA but thats what we have so like it or not we have to embrace it.

I wonder when it will start to embrace us?

When is NAMA going to start releasing properties on to the market? This year?

I wonder will they, say, put an entire apartment block up for sale - in individual lots? Sure how else could they do it?