Dublin Metrolink (just Metrolink posts here -see post #1 )

popebenny16

LV has done exactly what all political animals do - he has muddied the waters. It also sets IE against the RPA and the Metro North bidders in a rather interesting way. I can see LV and his mini-Leo sitting down with the lads from IE and saying how they can have the DART to the Airport, but they cant have (insert name of soon to be closed branch or intercity service) anymore to pay for it.

Monument actually does make a very valid point here - how come none of the bidders for MN are just walking away?? For all of LV's political retheoric reggarding the funding of MN from a bondholders point of view he cannto actually know that he is correct, what has he got to lose by simply putting it up to the bidders and say, off you go, if you think it will work, go raise the funding?

If, as has been pointed out, MN can be done for 2.5 billion (I am very suspicious of Leo now raising the price in the middle of a construction costs slump) then tlel the bidders to off and see if they can get this raised. If they can, seal the deal at that price and tell then to go dig. At the end of the day, if the bidders are still in, why try to shut it down?

jd

popebenny16 wrote: »

If they can, seal the deal at that price and tell then to go dig. At the end of the day, if the bidders are still in, why try to shut it down?

Because they won't be able to sell it down the sticks?

BrianD

Anybody hear Leo V on with Kenny on Radio 1. Quite a broad range of transport topics.

It seems that it will be cut, cut and cut and whatever the cheapest option is likely be the favoured. He very quickly knocked the jobs arguement for Metro North on the head but otherwise didn't seem to indicate what he would do with the project.

Anyway, we've seen with the M50 what happens when you take the cheap option. It would be better that projects get "delayed indefinitely" than building something sub-standard that will cost a fortune to retrofit in years to come.

dubhthach

BrianD wrote: »

Anybody hear Leo V on with Kenny on Radio 1. Quite a broad range of transport topics.

It seems that it will be cut, cut and cut and whatever the cheapest option is likely be the favoured. He very quickly knocked the jobs arguement for Metro North on the head but otherwise didn't seem to indicate what he would do with the project.

Anyway, we've seen with the M50 what happens when you take the cheap option. It would be better that projects get "delayed indefinitely" than building something sub-standard that will cost a fortune to retrofit in years to come.

History has a tendancy to repeat itself in this country. With regards to a "Dart Spur" how long would it take for the whole "Railway order process" to go through? I'm assuming between that and design work you wouldn't see any construction start for at least 4-5 years!

lucernarian

runway16 wrote: »

Lots of airports are well connected by busses. That doesnt mean that linking them into the rail system isnt an objective. What if all Europe's airports had said that? None of them would have been part of the rail system, and therefore their attractiveness would have suffered. Foreign visitors like the ease of an easy rail connection, and its links to the national rail system.

It works to stimulate traffic at the airport as has been demonstrated time and time again at airports around Europe.

Cork is also well served by busses. Does that mean we should cut it off the rail system?

The two are not mutually exclusive.

What I meant to highlight was the relative objective of providing the airport with rail in comparison to providing Swords and the North city in general with rail transport. I think a rail link to only the airport will be utilised but it wouldn't be true to say that because 20% of people would use a rail link, it must mean that there will be a greater volume of travellers reaching the airport. There will be some cannibalising of the existing bus services. The routing of such a DART line will likely mean that a bus service through the port tunnel will be quicker. In comparison, Swords only has the modestly-sized Swords Express and I feel providing there with rail transport would offer bigger benefits than providing the Airport with a rail link.

In other words, providing the airport with rail would be more of a happy bonus to providing Swords and the like with a rail link IMO. Assuming Leo Vradkar is right in thinking the cost of this DART link would be as low as 15% of the cost of Metro North, that's still a lot of money to keep some tourists happy! I find it hard to imagine that having to use a 20-30 minute bus journey instead of a 20-30 minute rail journey would have a big bearing on Ireland's tourism potential.

popebenny16

BrianD wrote: »

Anybody hear Leo V on with Kenny on Radio 1. Quite a broad range of transport topics.

He very quickly knocked the jobs arguement for Metro North on the head

i would like to know how he did this, and what proofs he offered. This, like his ramping up of the costs, has to be checked out, because it simply looks to me as though he has made up his mind on this one and that the carrott being offered is the DART spur.

bk

There are two ways of looking at Leo saying MN will cost €4.5 billion.

The pessimistic way of looking at it is that by saying it is so expensive, that when it comes time to cancel it, most people will applaud him for canning another FF white elephant.

The optimistic way to look at it, is that MN will go ahead for about 2 to 2.5 billion and then he will say, look at how great I am, I got it done for 2 billion less then FF.

Unfortunately I think the pessimistic outlook is more likely.

Jack Noble

bk wrote: »

There are two ways of looking at Leo saying MN will cost €4.5 billion.

The pessimistic way of looking at it is that by saying it is so expensive, that when it comes time to cancel it, most people will applaud him for canning another FF white elephant.

The optimistic way to look at it, is that MN will go ahead for about 2 to 2.5 billion and then he will say, look at how great I am, I got it done for 2 billion less then FF.

Unfortunately I think the pessimistic outlook is more likely.

Leo said €2.5bn re Metro North in the early part of the interview with Pat Kenny.

Then when he was asked about the jobs argument, he said between €4bn and €5bn - or about €1m a job.

He was being disingenuous there - as he said on VB last night, the €4.5bn figure is the cost over the lifespan of the PPP contract of 25 or 30 years, not the upfront construction cost.

It's like the difference between the price you buy a house for and the cost to you of your mortgage over 25 or 30 years.

I have never heard anyone say when buying a house for €250k that it will actually cost them €450k after 30 years.

And of course he forgot to mention all the benefits accrued from Metro North over the 30 years - just like all the benefits you get from your house by living in it.

robd

bk wrote: »

There are two ways of looking at Leo saying MN will cost €4.5 billion.

The pessimistic way of looking at it is that by saying it is so expensive, that when it comes time to cancel it, most people will applaud him for canning another FF white elephant.

The optimistic way to look at it, is that MN will go ahead for about 2 to 2.5 billion and then he will say, look at how great I am, I got it done for 2 billion less then FF.

Unfortunately I think the pessimistic outlook is more likely.

The upfront cost is 2.5 billion but it's funded by PPP, which is similar to any other kind of finance in that you cover the repayments plus interest. Then you've got the profit for the PPP investor. So add 2-3 billion their depending on Ireland's credit rating to get full cost. Oh yeh it's terrible at the moment.

L1011

robd wrote: »

The upfront cost is 2.5 billion but it's funded by PPP, which is similar to any other kind of finance in that you cover the repayments plus interest. Then you've got the profit for the PPP investor. So add 2-3 billion their depending on Ireland's credit rating to get full cost. Oh yeh it's terrible at the moment.

The 2.5Bn PPP cost includes the concessionaires profit.

BrianD

Does it include the kick back to the operator when it won't meet the passenger targets?

Leo is hopefully on the right track and will hopefully shelf this project. In the mean time, he would be best cracking the whip and get a transport plan that is based on sound advice and planning. Perhaps even using the Census data for actual use (rather than a free genealogy service that it's treated as).

It's bizarre that in we allow a process like the Metro North railway order and all goes with it go ahead and then allow another state agency suddenly embark on building a rail spur to the airport like a bolt from the blue and now be included as an option. Perhaps both are viable and needed, maybe on or other is and maybe none but at least let's have a plan that we can work to instead making it up as we go along.

L1011

Have you not considered, Brian, that we HAVE the plan to work from? Namely the DU/MN system, as planned.

The spur is just a distraction being thrown back in to the ring

Also, if its done the same way as the Luas operation contract; the concessionaire won't be in any position to get a benefit if targets aren't met - fixed price for operating it.

Cathaoirleach

The fact remains that there just isn't the money for MN, DU or BXD.

Let's face it, the PPP investors will not risk investing in an economy that is on the brink of collapse.

Leo knows this, and has said on many occasions that he wants to focus on maintaining our current road and rail infrastructure with the few quid that we have left, and I think that's the best we can hope for over the next decade.

The fact that he has asked CIÉ to revive the DART airport extension says it all, really.

We need another 5-10 years to see if the economy picks up again, only then can we consider these rail projects.

monument

Really?

Could you explain then why the two Metro North final bidders are still engaged in the bidding process?

Cathaoirleach

monument wrote: »

Really?

Could you explain then why the two Metro North final bidders are still engaged in the bidding process?

Celtic Metro Group and Metro Express aren't going do anything until the Government makes a decision on the project.

Considering the dire straits that this country is in, and will be for the foreseeable future, there is too much at risk to both the bidders, the EIB, and our Government with this Metro North project. Ireland's banks are a black hole, and mark my words, they will need more bailouts over the next few years.

Metro North is a fantastic project, but the fact is that there is so much uncertainty about Ireland's economy, no private investor is going to risk putting money into this massive project, nor will the Irish Government.

Leo is being realistic about these projects. We just can't afford them.

xper

BrianD wrote: »

Taken from a letter from Irish Rail to Fingal CoCo - January 2011

Promote the electrification of the Maynooth Line, the grade separation of level crossings on the Maynooth Line, the three/four tracking of the Northern Line from the City Centre and a DART link: from the Northern Line at Clongriffin to serve Dublin Airport


A DART link: from Clongriffin to the Airport is a high priority for Iarnr6d Eireann as outlined in our submission to Fingal County Council on 11 th June 2010 (see attached letter for reference).

http://www.fingalcoco.ie/Planning/De...1D92D1234E.pdf

This is unbelievable stuff and dated only in past few months. Where is our central plan for rail transport development? We now have two state bodies effectively competing with each other and duplicating resources which are now very scarce.

Well, IE do have form when it comes to solo runs in planning for the future. Didn't they announce their own plans for the Broadstone terminal a couple of years back despite the fact that the route had been reserved for a LUAS line in Transport 21?

There's nothing in the Iarnrod Eireann correspondence that doesn't make sense in isolation.

Indeed, leaving aside the fact that they're not singing from the same hymn sheet as everyone else, the actual proposal isn't completely off the wall.
They're really only suggesting to Fingal Co Co to preserve the required land corridor for a possible future build and they speak services being run from the airport through DART Underground to Kildare, thus tacitly recognising that there is a capacity issue on the Northern Line and that the spur is only feasible with a solution to this in place. This contrasts starkly to Leo's idea of building the spur instead of any other major rail project.
Is there any chance that, having been asked to look again at their airport spur plan, that IE will be honest about it and point out that it requires DART underground and/or 3/4-tracking of the Connolly-Clongriffin staretch
to work? Or will they just see a chance to get in ahead of LUAS/MN and tell him, 'yes,sir, we can build you a railway'.

Perhaps Leo can do us a favour and come up with a definitive rail map for Dublin and a timetable for each of the components.

Didn't we just get one: http://www.2030vision.ie/

While I understand the Irish-politicians-don't-do-multi-billion-transport-projects arguement, I did think that Leo was a bit smarter than the average expense-claimer and, at the outset of his tenure, would have the conviction to say, ok, we can't afford anythign big so we'll hold onto the plan, "invest" in some some prepartory work and wait for conditions to improve rather than, we can't afford anything big so here's a little project that benefits few, doesn't really work and is outside the coordianted transport plan we just spent a lot of time and money developing.

BrianD

xper wrote: »

Didn't we just get one: http://www.2030vision.ie/

While I understand the Irish-politicians-don't-do-multi-billion-transport-projects arguement, I did think that Leo was a bit smarter than the average expense-claimer and, at the outset of his tenure, would have the conviction to say, ok, we can't afford anythign big so we'll hold onto the plan, "invest" in some some prepartory work and wait for conditions to improve rather than, we can't afford anything big so here's a little project that benefits few, doesn't really work and is outside the coordianted transport plan we just spent a lot of time and money developing.

I take it your being tongue-in-cheek about our transport planning! It's a vision not a plan and it's yet to be uploaded!

I would recommend the Leo approach. Do prep work as required (as happening on MN) but hold off until the conditions are right rather than building something sub standard or a cheaper alternative.

IR asking Fingal CC for a rail reservation is a perfectly sensible thing to do - in fact given the talk of a spur in the past, I'm surprised they had not done it before now. It's amazing how IR asking for a reservation can suddenly put this route on the agenda as a fully fledged option. A lot of time and money has been spend on developing the Metro, DART underground. LUAS interconnector propositions and all of sudden they are sitting side by side with a letter to Fingal Co Co.!!!

dynamick

I don't think there was lack of transport planning since the mid 90s. The DTI/DTO was set up in about 1995 and they produced strategic plans that were reflected in county and city development plans. In 2000 the Platform for Change document was published providing clear maps and targets for what needed to be achieved and the future goals. As it happened, the government decided to spend the money needed on other activities.

The problem was not a lack of plan. It was that politicians chose not to allocate money to those projects to complete them. It's not as if nothing was done. Parts of the plan were completed: QBN, Luas, DPT, KRP, DASH, M50 which were all good things.

An Bord Pleanala deserves some of the blame: they delayed Metro North by 2 years when 1 year should have been enough. If you look at govt bond yields from a year ago they were below 5% so the project would have been feasible. Essentially, ABP delayed the project examining commercial viability with the result that the project was canned. I think it's time to take out some of the senior ABP people who allowed this to happen.

dowlingm

monument wrote: »

Really?
Could you explain then why the two Metro North final bidders are still engaged in the bidding process?

Because if Irish Gov pulls plug they'll claim compo - if they walk they get nothing?

Jack Noble

Interesting report re Metro North in today's Sunday Business Post - no link yet but I will post it tomorrow morning when latest edition goes on web.

It quotes a consultant with one of the PPP bidders, Mike Flynn of the Metro Express consortium, as saying he was "confident the [private sector] money is there" to build Metro North - provided the govt is still committed to building it.

Metro Express includes the finance provider The MacQuarie Group, Irish construction contractor Sisk and transport operator Transdev, with which Flynn work.

He said Metro Express had been speaking to 30 to 40 banks who are on a panel and they "have not gone away".

He said that if the money was to be borrowed "this minute, the interest would be higher than we like, but as things stand, we would not need to draw that down for 18 months to two years yet".

SBP reveals the two rival bidders, Metro Express and Celtic Metro (SBP refers to Celtic Express but that is wrong) met RPA officials this week to discuss the details of Leo Varadkar's reveiew into the major infrastructure projects.

Flynn described Metro North as a 'no-brainer' as it connects Swords, the airport and other large facilities rather than the Dart spur to the airport floated by Leo this week which said would serve one facility generating 8,000 passengers a day.

As I said, an interesting report which gives another side to the story from what Leo V was saying over the last few weeks - that the private money may not be available.

Cathaoirleach

That's good to hear, but I just don't think the Government will have the balls to go through with it. This is Ireland afterall.

lods

I persume this is just to keep the pressure on Leo . It seems Luke spin to me . It doesn't make sence that anyone would want to lend money to Ireland Inc

DWCommuter

lods wrote: »

I persume this is just to keep the pressure on Leo . It seems Luke spin to me . It doesn't make sence that anyone would want to lend money to Ireland Inc

In fairness Lods, we could go around in circles about this one. Anyone with sense knows that MN is dead in the water because time and money ran out.

Jack Noble

Here's that piece from that SBP that I referred to above.

http://www.sbpost.ie/news/ireland/bidder-claims-money-is-there-to-build-metro-north-56209.html

I find it interesting from the perspective that it is, AFAIK, the first time we've heard from one of the PPP bidders re the funding side.

Like DWC, I've come round to the opinion that it's looking like MetroN and DartU are off the agenda until at least the second half of the decade, if not for another generation.

But we'll know for sure come September when Leo has completed his review and the PPP BAFOs are submitted.

If, as Flynn suggests, the private money will be there and the winning bidder can prove it, then the decision becomes more difficult for the govt than if the private funding is not available.

xper

BrianD wrote: »

I would recommend the Leo approach. Do prep work as required (as happening on MN) but hold off until the conditions are right rather than building something sub standard or a cheaper alternative.

But that's the thing, that may not be the Leo approach. He seems to be the one putting AerDART II on the list of options. Hopefully it will have been shot down by September. Of course, we could be all shot down by September.

Maybe the Greeks will sell us their Olympics trams at a knockdown price.:P

Pete_Cavan

Looks like RPA is getting ready for Enabling works for stationbox at the Mater

http://www.etenders.gov.ie/search/show/search_view.aspx?ID=MAY226435

DWCommuter

Meaningless. Is it not just an expression of interest? If the RPA keep on doing this without clear clarification from the Government, we'll end up looking like real fools.

FreudianSlippers

http://www.fingal-independent.ie/news/campaign-to-save-metro-unveiled-2661994.html

Wednesday June 01 2011


SWORDS residents, groups and business have been urged to join a new campaign launched last week in an effort to ensure the delivery of Metro North.

Socialist Party TD, Clare Daly, initiated the 'Yes To Metro' push at a public meeting in the town and has appealed to all interested parties to get involved.

'This is the only shovel-ready transport project, with planning completed, millions already spent on it and the only project with funding in place,' Deputy Daly said.

A second public meeting will take place this Wednesday at 8pm in the Carnegie Court Hotel, Swords, which residents have been asked to support.

'The Rail Procurement Agency (RPA) have been invited to make a presentation on the status of the project,' Deputy Daly added.

Meanwhile, a former Fingal County Council planner has warned there is 'no way' Metro will be built, given the lack of funds and skewed projected population figures. A FORMER Fingal County Council planner has warned there is 'no way' Metro North will be built, in the week a local campaign to have the rail line delivered was launched.

The official, who no longer works for the local authority, said the attitude of Transport Minister, Leo Varadkar, towards Metro emphasised the fact the project is doomed.

'There is no way Metro is going to be built,' he said. ' The Metro was designed with projected growth figures. Those figures are not going to be reached now and the money isn't there.' Those comments come in the week a Swords-based TD launched a 'Yes To Metro' campaign following a public meeting in the town last week. Deputy Clare Daly (SP) issued a communitywide invitation to get involved in the drive and has written to the National Transport Authority arguing in its favour.

' The meeting agreed to set up 'Yes To Metro North', a campaign for every Swords resident, community group, commuter or business to get involved in to make sure that construction on Metro is commenced as a critical infrastructure project that can transform the quality of life for Swords residents and positively contribute to much-needed economic development and job creation,' Deputy Daly said.

'This is the only shovel-ready transport project, with planning completed, millions already spent on it and the only project with funding in place.'

A second public meeting will take place on Wednesday, June 1st at 8pm in the Carnegie Court Hotel, Swords, where residents have been asked for their support.

'The Rail Procurement Agency (RPA) have been invited to make a presentation on the status of the project,' Deputy Daly added. ' The National Transport Authority have been written to in order to express the concerns of the community that this project must go ahead and an online petition and Facebook page for the campaign have been launched.' RPA spokesperson, Tom Manning, said the organisation would be providing an update on where things stand as the wait for a resolution to the process continues. 'A comprehensive spending review is taking place across all departments and we totally support that,' Mr Manning said. 'He (Minister Varadkar) has said he will make his own decision about what project or projects will go ahead.'

- Robin KIELY

BrianD

Can we believe what the Minister says one way or the other given the number of solo runs that are being made by our elected representatives?

Plowman

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