Race for 1st

Ush1

Morzadec wrote: »

It's so close, very hard to call. As a Liverpool fan I'm disappointed we're not anywhere near the reckoning, but it's still great to have 3 teams in a title race so late. I really feel that this one will go down to the wire. All teams have a strong case for winning it:

- Arsenal have the fixture list to their advantage.

- Chelsea have the game in hand.

- United have the psychological advantage having won it the last 3 years - plus they have Rooney who looks pretty unstoppable at the minute.

I think it's so hard to call, but obviously the United vs Chelsea match will be huge. I think whoever loses will probably be out of it. If it's a draw then that's a great result for Arsenal and the whole thing will probably be up in the air again.

Also haven't seen anyone mention the significance of the Champions League. I think an easy quarter final draw could indirectly influence the outcome of the Premier League for whoever might secure it. As might a quarter final exit.

Have to say fair play to Arsenal. I'd love them to win it. I couldn't believe the amount of people writing them off after the defeats to United and Chelsea, with their end of year fixture list they always have a chance and I'd be delighted to see them do it.

Whatever happens it's going to be a really exciting end, and I really do think it's going to go right down to the final day.

Well in fairness Chelsea have Drogba! And a tad unfair on both sides just to classify them like that. I know it's topical to do that, but I think it's somewhat simplistic.

Still though, nice to see Arsenal win it.:)

yahoo_moe

JimsAlterEgo wrote: »

fully expect all 3 to beat them TBO

As an Arsenal fan, if we're not going to win the league, I'd like it to be because Spurs have lost loads of games

I don't think Arsenal need to be top with 5 left to win it but they might just have to be ahead of Utd.

Btw loving all the goodwill towards Arsenal in here - cheers lads!

Morzadec

Ush1 wrote: »

Well in fairness Chelsea have Drogba! And a tad unfair on both sides just to classify them like that. I know it's topical to do that, but I think it's somewhat simplistic.

Still though, nice to see Arsenal win it.:)

Yes and Arsenal have Fabregas - clearly the best 3 players in the Premiership at the moment.

But as of the last 10 - 15 games it's Rooney who's been the best. They can pretty much rely on him to score a goal a game at this stage which is massive in the Prem run in. Chelsea probably have more threats around the pitch - Lampard, Malouda etc...- and as I said Arsenal have a nice run-in. But if I was to choose one player to have in my team for the run in it'd definitely be Rooney, and I think his form could well be the deciding factor.

However I do think the Chapions League will play a part, but impossible to say in whose favour at this stage. Possibly not Arsenal's, due to their injuries/squad restrictions

Soby

Man Utd

heart says chelsea, head hasn't a clue..A 3 horse race right to the final day would be awsome

Ush1

Morzadec wrote: »

Yes and Arsenal have Fabregas - clearly the best 3 players in the Premiership at the moment.

But as of the last 10 - 15 games it's Rooney who's been the best. They can pretty much rely on him to score a goal a game at this stage which is massive in the Prem run in. Chelsea probably have more threats around the pitch - Lampard, Malouda etc...- and as I said Arsenal have a nice run-in. But if I was to choose one player to have in my team for the run in it'd definitely be Rooney, and I think his form could well be the deciding factor.

However I do think the Chapions League will play a part, but impossible to say in whose favour at this stage. Possibly not Arsenal's, due to their injuries/squad restrictions

This is true but still Drogba has played 24 league games, 21 goals. Rooney 28 games, 25 goals. Rooney has been fantastic but the Drog shouldn't be overlooked.

But I agree that Rooneys form could be crucial, but I also think Fletcher is very important to them. And I do think they will win the league.

Morzadec

Soby wrote: »

heart says chelsea, head hasn't a clue..A 3 horse race right to the final day would be awsome

Plus a relegation race and a 4th place race - that'd be sweet. It'd be funny seeing Sky and everyone trying to catch up with all the permutations and switching to a match with a goal every 5 minutes

Soby

Man Utd

Morzadec wrote: »

Plus a relegation race and a 4th place race - that'd be sweet. It'd be funny seeing Sky and everyone trying to catch up with all the permutations and switching to a match with a goal every 5 minutes

Prob split our screen into 4..Show us race for title,4th and survival all at once lol

Morzadec

Soby wrote: »

Prob split our screen into 4..Show us race for title,4th and survival all at once lol

It'd be so good!

Can anyone remember the last time there was an end of the day race for the title? It seems like a long time ago....

JPA

Chelsea

Morzadec wrote: »

Plus a relegation race and a 4th place race - that'd be sweet. It'd be funny seeing Sky and everyone trying to catch up with all the permutations and switching to a match with a goal every 5 minutes

They could dedicate a channel to each of them really. Would be interesting.

JPA

Chelsea

Morzadec wrote: »

It'd be so good!

Can anyone remember the last time there was an end of the day race for the title? It seems like a long time ago....

2 years ago?

GLaDOS

Chelsea

Last day includes hull v pool, villa v blackburn, Burnley v spurs and west ham v city

So all the 4th place chasers vs relegation battlers! Though Blackburn seem to be ok actually.

JPA

Chelsea

ScienceNerd wrote: »

Last day includes hull v pool, villa v blackburn, Burnley v spurs and west ham v city

So all the 4th place chasers vs relegation battlers! Though Blackburn seem to be ok actually.

Well I wouldn't say Blackburn are in the relegation battle really.

Royale with Cheese

I would fully expect all 3 teams to win their last game of the season so even if it does go down to the wire, whoever is top after 37 games will win it imo.

Soby

Man Utd

07/08 it went down to the final day..Back when we had Grant

Morzadec

Jesus terrible memory completely forgot about that final day, although it was one of those situations where Chelsea were hoping for a miracle to stand a chance so wasn't too memorable a final day.

Looking at the final fixtures this year, with United having Stoke at home, Arsenal having Fulham at home and Chelsea have Wigan at home so you would expect whoever has the lead going into the final game to take it.

The goal difference is fairly close this year also which could actually come into play. United have the advantage but the other 2 could definitely catch up. It'd be a great final day if it came down to teams having to score as many as possible to secure the League. Wishful thinking but you never know...

Le King

United. Although rescheduling of the Spurs match could be key for Arsenal.

Soby

Man Utd

Osu wrote: »

United. Although rescheduling of the Spurs match could be key for Arsenal.

More time to poison the food :P

deisedevil

Filled out bbc predictor as close as I think I can I can get it. Pretty pleased at the result. Now just need dreams to turn into a reality.


Team GD Points

1. Man Utd 62 86

2. Chelsea 58 85

3. Arsenal 50 82

Frisbee

Man Utd

The thing is that at this stage of the season, for the top three dropping points will be huge. And probably have a fairly heavy effect on squad morale.

For example if Arsenal were to lose on Saturday and Chelsea win both their games next week Arsenal are out of it imo as it will start to prey on players minds then that there's only seven games left and not enough time to catch them.

But if Chelsea were to lose either at the weekend or their game in hand I think the boost that would give to United and Arsenal will prove instrumental in deciding the fate of the title.

All this is fairly obvious though tbf, really hoping for an exciting last few weeks.

I still don't believe we can do it but I dare L'Arse to prove me wrong....


please

ROCKMAN

Another deciding factor could be next Friday's champions league draw . I believe its an open draw , If any of the three are drawn against each other . It would hand an advantage to one of them.

PHB

I'm torn between wanting Chelsea to beat Inter and stay in the CL so that they get tired, or wanting them to go out to avoid another potential CL winner (which I'm not sure Inter are). I'm hoping if they lose tonight, that they'll get demoralised and it'll affect other games. But those rest days, particuarly as the CL matches are around a United match, could be crucial in the title race.

Kold

Man Utd

Reckon Chelsea but otherwise unconcerned. Just hoping for Spurs to f*ck up a few early celebrators.

Pepe LeFrits

Nabbed from here.



Basically it just shows the differences in home and away percentages of points taken for the remaining fixtures. So for Arsenal at home against West Ham, Arsenal have taken 82.2% of possible points from their home games while the Hammers have taken just 17.8% of available points from their away games.

Gives a decent idea of the relative differences in the run-ins, if not much else.

PHB

I love crowd sourcing, thats a slick table.

Royale with Cheese

Interesting to see that statistically Blackburn away is a far more difficult game than City at home.

MementoMori

Chelsea

Royale with Cheese wrote: »

Interesting to see that statistically Blackburn away is a far more difficult game than City at home.

This season

Blackburn have got 6 points in 15 away games 1W 3D 11L.
City have got 19 points in 15 away games 4W 7D 4L.

Blackburn have got 28 points in 12 home games 8W 4D 0L.
City have got 31 points in 13 home games 9W 4D 0L.

Goes to show just how important home advantage is for some teams.

Also I think this season's form is a lot more relevant that how a vastly different squad might have done 5 years ago so I would be wary of historical data from past years.

Don't know if I'd necessarily agree with the methodology as being massively sound, even if I agree with the statement that Arsenal have the easiest run-in.

L'prof

Chelsea

MementoMori wrote: »

Also I think this season's form is a lot more relevant that how a vastly different squad might have done 5 years ago so I would be wary of historical data from past years.

I was under the impression that those stats were for this year!?!

Royale with Cheese

Yeah the statistics are only based on win percentages though, doesn't take into account a team's likeliness to draw a game. e.g. Liverpool have only won around 1/3 of their away games this season, yet they could actually be unbeaten away and the stats wouldn't tell you that.

Maybe a better way to do it would be average points per game, instead of win percentage.

am i bovvered

Man Utd

I would love Arsenal to win it.....
think Chelsea will win it.....
so that means it will be Utd

L'prof

Chelsea

Royale with Cheese wrote: »

Yeah the statistics are only based on win percentages though, doesn't take into account a team's likeliness to draw a game. e.g. Liverpool have only won around 1/3 of their away games this season, yet they could actually be unbeaten away and the stats wouldn't tell you that.

Maybe a better way to do it would be average points per game, instead of win percentage.

MDGoonah41 wrote:

I looked at all of the teams that the Big 3 have to play during the remaining fixtures. I calculated their home/away form, based on points scored...

SlickRic

well it looks like Blackburn will have a huge say potentially in this race.

unfortunately for Arsenal and Chelsea, you know what that means...



and for those who think that's being kind to their 'relationship', this might be a bit more accurate*

*warning, may not be safe to open at work - not explicit, more 'risqué'...

http://img41.imageshack.us/i/......jpg/

Royale with Cheese

jasonorr wrote: »

sorry misread the table, it actually is based on average points per game

MickShamrock

United for me.

G1032

Chelsea

Head and heart both say Arsenal now. Thought it was all over in injury time at Hull and then Bendtner pops us to keep it all alive. Moments like that make you think it's going to be your year.

L'prof

Chelsea

Idea robbed from the race for 4th thread. I suggested it be done here but, nobody bothered!

Target 85pts

• United 72pts from 32 games = 2.25ppg
• Chelsea 71pts from 32 games = 2.22ppg
• Arsenal 68pts from 32 games = 2.13ppg

Points needed

• United 13pts from 6 games = 2.17ppg
• Chelsea 14pts from 6 games = 2.33ppg
• Arsenal 17pts from 6 games = 2.83ppg

I thought Arsenal could draw one more game and still win it. Going by that it looks like they'll need maximum points but, you never know, they still have an easier run-in.

Bukman13

jasonorr wrote: »

Idea robbed from the race for 4th thread. I suggested it be done here but, nobody bothered!

Target 85pts

• United 72pts from 32 games = 2.25ppg
• Chelsea 71pts from 32 games = 2.22ppg
• Arsenal 68pts from 32 games = 2.13ppg

Points needed

• United 13pts from 6 games = 2.17ppg
• Chelsea 14pts from 6 games = 2.33ppg
  
• Arsenal 17pts from 6 games = 2.83ppg

I thought Arsenal could draw one more game and still win it. Going by that it looks like they'll need maximum points but, you never know, they still have an easier run-in.

Arsenal can't get 17pts from their remaining 6games (5w 1D = 16pts). So for Arsenal to get to your target of 85pts they need 3pts per game.

One more draw for arsenal puts them on a max of 84pts. Meaning both Chelsea and United will both need to finish on 83pts for Arsenal to win the league due to their GD.

L'prof

Chelsea

Bukman13 wrote: »

Arsenal can't get 17pts from their remaining 6games (5w 1D = 16pts). So for Arsenal to get to your target of 85pts they need 3pts per game.

One more draw for arsenal puts them on a max of 84pts. Meaning both Chelsea and United will both need to finish on 83pts for Arsenal to win the league due to their GD.

I know that, I wasn't as thorough as you.

Bukman13

jasonorr wrote: »

I know that, I wasn't as thorough as you.

Haha...

At this stage a draw between United and Chelsea is the only result that suites Arsenal.

If either team wins that match I would find it hard to see them not getting beyond 83pts.

I think Arsenal will have to win out from here, Spurs game is vital for you.

L'prof

Chelsea

Bukman13 wrote: »

Haha...

At this stage a draw between United and Chelsea is the only result that suites Arsenal.

If either team wins that match I would find it hard to see them not getting beyond 83pts.

I think Arsenal will have to win out from here, Spurs game is vital for you.

Looking at the remaining fixtures, I think there's still points to be dropped so, I'm not gonna give up all hope yet!

Arsenal|United|Chelsea
H Wolves|H Chelsea|A United
A Spurs|A Blackburn|H Bolton
A Wigan|A Man City|A Spurs
H Man City|H Spurs|H Stoke
A Blackburn|A Sunderland|A Liverpool
H Fulham|H Stoke|H Wigan

Bukman13

jasonorr wrote: »

Looking at the remaining fixtures, I think there's still points to be dropped so, I'm not gonna give up all hope yet!

Arsenal|United|Chelsea
H Wolves|H Chelsea|A United
A Spurs|A Blackburn|H Bolton
A Wigan|A Man City|A Spurs
H Man City|H Spurs|H Stoke
A Blackburn|A Sunderland|A Liverpool
H Fulham|H Stoke|H Wigan

Key set of fixtures that week imo. If Arsenal win their next 3 games they have a good chance of winning out, whether or not that will be good enough, only time will tell.

L'prof

Chelsea

Bukman13 wrote: »

Key set of fixtures that week imo. If Arsenal win their next 3 games they have a good chance of winning out, whether or not that will be good enough, only time will tell.

Next weekend too. If we can win both those games and United and Chelsea drop points, we'd be looking good again!

TonyD79

If United win next week then they will have a gap of 4 pts over the other two. Saw the Birmingham game as key for Arsenal dropping points and they did. Looking at the remaining fixtures then its pretty even and Arsenals "easy run" in goes out the window.

Liam O

If United win next week I'd tentatively say it's as good as over imo.

L'prof

Chelsea

Liam O wrote: »

If United win next week I'd tentatively say it's as good as over imo.

Could well be, we really need a draw there!

kryogen

Man Utd

Liam O wrote: »

If United win next week I'd tentatively say it's as good as over imo.

nope, tough games against spurs and city to come too, and they will both be fighting tooth and nail

Chelsea are still in a great position imo and i probably wouldnt change my vote now if i could i guess

PHB

I'd be pretty confident of the league if United beat Chelsea. However, I'm not at all confident we'll beat Chelsea

TonyD79

kryogen wrote: »

nope, tough games against spurs and city to come too, and they will both be fighting tooth and nail

Chelsea are still in a great position imo and i probably wouldnt change my vote now if i could i guess

United have Spurs at home and Id rather be playing City away than going to Anfield second last game of season with Liverpool looking to seal 4th place.

kryogen

Man Utd

sure City are going for 4th, along with spurs so they will be tough opposition regardless!

city would absolutely love to stop us winning the league, would make their season a mini success even when they fail to make 4th

liverpool, although i wouldnt question their commitment, if they are out of the running for 4th at that stage then they wont really mind us not winning the league will they

both teams have tough games and its really close to call the winner this year

Bukman13

TonyD79 wrote: »

United have Spurs at home and Id rather be playing City away than going to Anfield second last game of season with Liverpool looking to seal 4th place.

How surreal will it be if Liverpool had 4th spot wrapped up going into the Chelsea match, with United needing Liverpool to beat Chelsea to win the title.

Every United fan celebrating a late Gerrard winner, with every Liverpool and Chelsea fan turning away in disgust. haha

ROCKMAN

After the weekend results , It gives Utd the draw option against Chelsea .

Think 4 points out of the Chelsea and City games will be enough ,

Factor B both Arsenal and Chelsea are away to Spurs ,Utd have them at home ,could make the difference