Thunderstorm/convective discussion: Spring 2010

Hal1

Theres a risk for the south / south midlands today.

Snowbie wrote:

Another good day to come on Saturday for convection and some powerful skies to be witnessed again. The greatest risk of thunder would be in the SW and southern counties during Saturday but showers will crop up almost anywhere.

Winds will be cyclonic variable as the LP moves down across the country but NW across Munster so any showers that do occur will be slow moving. Air temps will not be too high as reflected in the potential energy of the atmosphere being low. LI and lapse rates are however decent as the cold upper air and adiabatic cooling should build CBs quick enough.

Shear is forecast to be low so funnel development is unlikely.
With regard to thunderstorm development, the risk is minimal but the odd boom of thunder could be heard in the southern half of the country. Downdrafting winds should kill updrafts and any chance of storms developing going on a minimal wind shear environment.

Deep Easterly

Some heavy showers passing through here, although nothing notably intense as of yet. Of note is a sudden jump in air pressure in the last 30 mins, shot up from 1008.6mb to 1009.3mb in that time with some gusty winds from the North during heavier bursts.

glossy

nothing happening here, boring .... love love to hear a loud thunder rumbling along the skies with nice bright purple flashes of lighting to with,,, (dream on)

Hal1

If it where sunnier:rolleyes: the heat would generate some lift to aid convection. Too cloudy at the moment.

owenc

Well theres nae showers here it was just cloudy all day.. now its sunny and 9c.. it hasn't gone above 9c. tomorrow is ment tay be colder!

thetonynator

In cork at the moment, heavy hail and rain about half an hour ago with plenty thunder and lightning . . .

ltdslipdiff

Very dark and eerie clouds here in Waterford, and just spotted a water spout cloud thingy,like a small tornado touching down on the hill behind me, grabbed the camera but battery was dead.

glossy

thetonynator wrote: »

In cork at the moment, heavy hail and rain about half an hour ago with plenty thunder and lightning . . .

send it up this wasy please thanks

Iancar29

HAd a MAd dream last nite.... There was a big thunderstorm happenin and i was at my window for ages.
Then all of a sudden i notice a funnel coming from the clouds in the distance. I ran and got my binoculars to check for sure then it started rotating into a tornado!.... THEN , I Ran a got my camera and started recording it... I specifically remember saying to myself " AWh i CANT WAIT TO POST THIS UP ON BOARDS! " ... So ye the tornado started coming in my direction so i ran downstairs and went into the cupboard to be safe. I checked my camera to see if i saved the video and then turned it off. Everything went calm then and i remember turnin on the radio and hearin that it was an F 2. They also said anyone who had any footage should send it to the news . I was in a great mood! ha......................................THen i woke up....................:mad:

Wish it happened for real!....( but without and detruction or anything of course!)

Graces7

Although there is no mention in any forecast, there is thunder around up here.. collie is freaking out and I am cancelling ( postponing) my long awaited day out as she cannot be left in this state.... Ah well. always tomorrow...


But interested to see what the experts make of this; she only does this in or just before electrical storms.

DOCARCH

Might be a chance of the odd rumble today on the east coast. Shower clouds building nicely now. Cbs observed at Dublin AP at 1000 and already sferic showing up over the Irish Sea (IOM). http://andvari.vedur.is/athuganir/eldingar/

maquiladora

CAPE doesn't look great for today though.

adamski8

think i just heard a rumble here in dub

Dowdy20

What are the storm predictions for the summer??

i spotted what i thought was a funnel cloud here in north Kilkenny and pulled over to watch. it was visibly rotating but was weak. disappeared in couple of minutes.

another formed few mins later but only lasted few seconds. but both were clearly rotating. first funnel cloud I've seen my life and i seen two from the same cloud?

Anyone want to guess whats in store for the summer storms?

thetonynator

Dowdy20 wrote: »

What are the storm predictions for the summer??

i spotted what i thought was a funnel cloud here in north Kilkenny and pulled over to watch. it was visibly rotating but was weak. disappeared in couple of minutes.

another formed few mins later but only lasted few seconds. but both were clearly rotating. first funnel cloud I've seen my life and i seen two from the same cloud?

Anyone want to guess whats in store for the summer storms?

Pity they didn't come just a little bit further south . . .

Min

Dowdy20 wrote: »

What are the storm predictions for the summer??

i spotted what i thought was a funnel cloud here in north Kilkenny and pulled over to watch. it was visibly rotating but was weak. disappeared in couple of minutes.

another formed few mins later but only lasted few seconds. but both were clearly rotating. first funnel cloud I've seen my life and i seen two from the same cloud?

Anyone want to guess whats in store for the summer storms?

I hope for a mix of weather, warm dry spells intermixed with some wetter spells then back to dry, warm and so on.....


I saw some funnel clouds about 6 years ago, also north Kilkenny, a squall line crossed the country, violent thunderstorms and I went for a walk to do some work when the rain had stopped, several funnel clouds on the back edge of the system and one appeared to be a tornado as it looked like it was on the ground, it was too far off to be sure but I could hear noise coming from the direction of what appeared to be a tornado, the funnel then just disappeared back into the cloud.
Later that night watching the BBC weather after the 10pm news they said the same squall line had produced a tornado in the Severn estuary.

North Kilkenny, Ireland's version of tornado alley

Dowdy20

Min wrote: »

I hope for a mix of weather, warm dry spells intermixed with some wetter spells then back to dry, warm and so on.....


I saw some funnel clouds about 6 years ago, also north Kilkenny, a squall line crossed the country, violent thunderstorms and I went for a walk to do some work when the rain had stopped, several funnel clouds on the back edge of the system and one appeared to be a tornado as it looked like it was on the ground, it was too far off to be sure but I could hear noise coming from the direction of what appeared to be a tornado, the funnel then just disappeared back into the cloud.
Later that night watching the BBC weather after the 10pm news they said the same squall line had produced a tornado in the Severn estuary.

North Kilkenny, Ireland's version of tornado alley

These were also on the edge of the cloud.
The first one was really trying to get down. it was quite large aswell enough for me to stop the car as soon as i seen it :P

i thought it would reach the ground but i watched as it rope out back into the cloud. i was impressed by it it was like a miniature version of what goes on in america. was nice to sit and watch it happen in front of me.

Deep Easterly

Roll on Summer:

Iancar29

I 2nd that motion!

wild handlin

We can but hope!!

BTW - I see on the BBC weather this evening that there was mention of "some sharp showers developing along western parts" of N/I tomorrow late morning/afternoon,

Whats the chance that some of these could turn thundery...?!

jprboy

Momentous downpour here between from approx 20.00 - 21.00 (few miles south of Nenagh). Satellite signal was periodically patchy during that time and eventually lost it for a few minutes (missed the closing stages of "Martin's Mad about Fish" !!!)

Interesting to see the Met.ie animation for the last few hours. Amazing what can happen on such a hot & humid day. Hit 27C on car reading for a short while at approx 17.20 today near Templetouhy (approx 5 miles east of Templemore).

See attached for state of play at 20.45.

No need to wash the cars now

aidan_dunne

The 'blob' over the northeast of Laois on that screencap jprboy posted produced a real cloudburst followed by a couple of claps of thunder here in Portlaoise earlier. Nothing local showed up on any of the lightning detectors on the Ireland Weather Network site, however.

As I type this, here is the current state of play according to met.ie's rainfall radar. Looks like some of those showers that bubbled up earlier have merged into one bigger mass (the animation on met.ie shows it). Looking out to the northwest from here with my binos, I think can see some of that cloud alright in the fading light.

Deep Easterly

aidan_dunne wrote: »

The 'blob' over the northeast of Laois on that screencap jprboy posted produced a real cloudburst followed by a couple of claps of thunder here in Portlaoise earlier. Nothing local showed up on any of the lightning detectors on the Ireland Weather Network site, however.

As I type this, here is the current state of play according to met.ie's rainfall radar. Looks like some of those showers that bubbled up earlier have merged into one bigger mass (the animation on met.ie shows it). Looking out to the northwest from here with my binos, I think can see some of that cloud alright in the fading light.

Had a burst of heavy rain that lasted all but 30 seconds about 15 mins ago. (0.5mm total :rolleyes:) That shower looks really menacing from here as I look east despite the fading twilight. Would be great if it developed into a thunderstorm as the would be some nice lightning displays.

force eleven

Heavy shower right now, as that 'blob' of precip, moves northwards from the south midlands. Really warm and humid, all thats missing is a nice lightning show, but unfortunately since these were locally produced showers, and not the usual thundery front moving up from France, I doubt I'll see anything.

IvySlayer

Thought I heard thunder in Dublin

Anyone else?

Deep Easterly

force eleven wrote: »

Heavy shower right now, as that 'blob' of precip, moves northwards from the south midlands. Really warm and humid, all thats missing is a nice lightning show, but unfortunately since these were locally produced showers, and not the usual thundery front moving up from France, I doubt I'll see anything.

HIRLAM has that band intensifying tonight and into tomorrow morning as it pushes northwards:



As Will Handling mentioned earlier, the N and NW seem to be under particular threat later tonight and into tomorrow from some (possibly thundery) showers.

Dark here but no sign of any lightning to the east as of yet.

Danno

aidan_dunne wrote: »

Nothing local showed up on any of the lightning detectors on the Ireland Weather Network site, however.

Because the storms are very weak, the software has trouble plotting the location. The Portlaoise storm consisted of two strikes of lightning, but the software plotted the strikes off western Scotland on my map. Similarily the Cork detector picked up on it also, but plotted the storm in Antrim.

We need storms of 10 strikes per minute for decent accuracy, storms of weaker intensity become hard to plot on a map, however if they rumble for an hour or more at a rate of 5 per minute or more accuracy does improve for that storm.

The software developers are working on V2.0 which will be a big improvement and I believe that real time co-ordination between detectors will be used to correct bad plotting. Also, a new StormVue is being developed - this is the webpage side that you guys see - which will allow you to view more, zoom in etc...

My advice is for people to look at all 4 maps and the rainfall radar and try and guess what strikes should be where during weak setups like these storms this evening. We are lucky to have 4 in Ireland now. Antrim, Westmeath, Laois and Cork which is a brilliant spine of the island for them in relation to covering all the regions.

Danno.

Deep Easterly

Saturday, at least according to the latest ECMWF, has the potential to bring some thundery showers over parts of the country.

Very uncertain though as frontal zone track seems difficult to pinpoint, but latest projections seem to have the front clearing by early saturday morning leaving a slack trough of low pressure in its wake. Later runs may change this again but could be one to watch.

Deep Easterly

Deep Easterly wrote: »

Saturday, at least according to the latest ECMWF, has the potential to bring some thundery showers over parts of the country.

Very uncertain though as frontal zone track seems difficult to pinpoint, but latest projections seem to have the front clearing by early saturday morning leaving a slack trough of low pressure in its wake. Later runs may change this again but could be one to watch.

Still looks touch and go regarding this looking at the models just there. Having a slack low over the country, such as is being forecast tomorrow, is usually a good sign signal that heavy showers will bubble up at this time of year, but all depends on how much of the main frontal feature will be imbedded within the trough as it circulates around. Hard one to call to be honest.

Su Campu

Plenty of sferics showing up in the midwest in the last hour or two. Nobody getting anything?