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Rent is dead money

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  • Registered Users Posts: 1,102 ✭✭✭am i bovvered


    One element to consider if you go down the rent and save route is the disipline of saving.

    I believe that the cost most peoples lifestyle will increase as the savings do.
    I bought our house when I was quite young at 23. I am now 37, friends who have been renting since all that time do not have tons of savings, they spent a much larger portion of their income on travelling, cars and partying than we did. Why ? because they had the cash, its human nature.

    If you are paying a mortgage every month there are things you have to sacrifice, no choice.
    So therefore I don't believe the average joe will end up with the amount of cash at the end of the rent and save route.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,253 ✭✭✭halkar


    +1 . Totally agree. When we were buying back in year 2000 after 10 years of renting we had a lot of discussions like these with friends and family. After 10 years into our mortgage there is no way we can find a similiar place to rent for the same price as our mortgage. It will finish before We are 50, possibly 45 if we start paying more as payments are decreasing as the years past.
    After all paid we can put the mortgage amount monthly into a savings account for the remaining 10,15,20 years and be rent free with a lil million in the bank (We hope :D ).


  • Registered Users Posts: 46 ronanlyons


    Maybe I'm the only one seeing this, but is there not an inherent contradiction in the last two posts? Why is halkar able to save at will when their mortgage is finished, but according to am_i_bovvered (and a few others) halkar from 10 years ago not?

    If you don't believe you have the discipline to save on your own, set up a fixed ongoing deposit account, where you have to deposit every month or else you pay a penalty/your account breaks. That way, you can still take advantage of the liquidity if you really need it.

    Incidentally, halkar, you are one of the lucky ones - people who are buying now cannot expect to enjoy a boom that wipes out some of their debt for free. Hence the importance of at least understanding the range of investment alternatives, including buying and living in your only investment.


  • Registered Users Posts: 16,019 ✭✭✭✭niallo27


    ronanlyons wrote: »
    Maybe I'm the only one seeing this, but is there not an inherent contradiction in the last two posts? Why is halkar able to save at will when their mortgage is finished, but according to am_i_bovvered (and a few others) halkar from 10 years ago not?

    If you don't believe you have the discipline to save on your own, set up a fixed ongoing deposit account, where you have to deposit every month or else you pay a penalty/your account breaks. That way, you can still take advantage of the liquidity if you really need it.

    Incidentally, halkar, you are one of the lucky ones - people who are buying now cannot expect to enjoy a boom that wipes out some of their debt for free. Hence the importance of at least understanding the range of investment alternatives, including buying and living in your only investment.

    i think what they are trying to say is that it will be easier to save when your in your 50's or earlier, i have being renting for the last 10 years and have pissed all my money away enjoying myself, renting is ****e in this country, we are being screwed all the time, i want to buy a house now and im going to, i have a deposit from money i won a year ago and didnt touch.

    There is more to life than money people, money cant buy everything so give people a break, i mean i spend about 7 or 8 grand a year supporting liverpool, probably 3 or 4 on drink so why are people so shocked when they want to spend a little more on a house that will make them happy.


  • Registered Users Posts: 32,634 ✭✭✭✭Graces7


    drunk_monk wrote: »
    My point exactly, if your renting you still have to keep on paying & paying. If you young then it's better imo to buy. Everyone keeps doing figures for 25 years but we live much much longer than that. How much rent does someone pay who rents for 50 years?

    OK, but you are still failing to take maintenance and rates etc into account in all your sums.

    We sold the wee house we owned because it was needing more work than we could afford to get done.

    And rent means a roof over your head; it is not a free gift to the landlord. And maintenance and appliances etc.

    When we came here, he had to replace washing machine and fridge for example. Looking at several hundred E there.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 46 ronanlyons


    niallo27 wrote: »
    i think what they are trying to say is that it will be easier to save when your in your 50's or earlier, i have being renting for the last 10 years and have pissed all my money away enjoying myself, renting is ****e in this country, we are being screwed all the time, i want to buy a house now and im going to, i have a deposit from money i won a year ago and didnt touch.

    There is more to life than money people, money cant buy everything so give people a break, i mean i spend about 7 or 8 grand a year supporting liverpool, probably 3 or 4 on drink so why are people so shocked when they want to spend a little more on a house that will make them happy.
    I agree with your general point - that's why if you were to do as the calculator suggests, it would have to be as big a decision as taking out a mortgage. Good personal finance takes discipline!

    Although as an economist, "pissing away money" is not the same as spending it enjoying yourself now as opposed to later - you will always have your memories of supporting Liverpool, for example.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 925 ✭✭✭billybigunz


    niallo27 wrote: »
    i think what they are trying to say is that it will be easier to save when your in your 50's or earlier, i have being renting for the last 10 years and have pissed all my money away enjoying myself, renting is ****e in this country, we are being screwed all the time, i want to buy a house now and im going to, i have a deposit from money i won a year ago and didnt touch.

    There is more to life than money people, money cant buy everything so give people a break, i mean i spend about 7 or 8 grand a year supporting liverpool, probably 3 or 4 on drink so why are people so shocked when they want to spend a little more on a house that will make them happy.

    A depressingly common attitude in this country.


  • Registered Users Posts: 765 ✭✭✭oflahero


    Thanks to Ronan for all this work and patience. The 'rent is dead money' mantra is still prevalent, thanks primarily to the fact that we are still at the tail end of an era of cheap money, a period of the last 10 years during which everyone who took out a mortgage had no experience of anything else.

    This has now changed, as evidenced by the 'shock'n'horror!' stories of people applying for mortgages now ('I'm on 35k? They'll only give me 150k? WTF? Why won't they give me 400 and let me be a debt slave??') and the desperate efforts of banks to ditch their tracker customers.

    Fact: EXISTING MORTGAGES ARE CHEAP.

    Until this 'phoney war' period finally fades, and people start realizing that 5-6% interest rates are in fact 'normal', we're still going to hear a lot more of the auld 'ya can't lose with bricks and mortar'.

    Upside for jumbo mortgage holders: don't worry, there are so many of you out there that debt forgiveness will soon be a reality, whether the rest of us like it or not...


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,259 ✭✭✭alb


    Funny how often you hear that rent is dead money but never that mortgage interest is dead money.

    Based on conversations I've had I think many people don't seem to realise how much the interest adds over the lifetime of a mortgage - that it's possible to pay the principle sum AGAIN in interest i.e. if you take a 250k mortgage you may (depending on term, rates etc) pay back something like 500k. Sure you have a house 'worth' 250k but you've also payed 250k 'dead money' in addition to the loan itself.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 9,376 ✭✭✭ei.sdraob


    A depressingly common attitude in this country.

    7-8 grand supporting liverpool :eek:

    im still trying to figure out which half of that sentence is worse :D


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  • Registered Users Posts: 719 ✭✭✭drunk_monk


    ronanlyons wrote: »
    Sure, let's work with one example, a 30-year-old couple who could buy a €450,000 house on a 30-year mortgage with a 10% deposit. Or else they could rent it, at a current cost of €1,350 per month (think Castleknock 4-bed semi, that kind of family home).

    Mortgage repayments would be €2,428 at a 6% interest rate, so in the first year of renting, your savings would be about €13,000. Invested for 30 years at an average return of 6%, your first year's savings would be worth just over €75,000.

    Taking the calculator's defaults, 2% annual growth in rents and house prices, the house would be worth at the end of the 30 years €815,000 - all of it yours (albeit locked away in your house).

    Meanwhile, your rent would have crept up slowly to €2,445 over the lifetime of the mortgage. This ever-smaller gap between your rent and what would have been your mortgage, coupled with a shorter time for your savings to mature, means that for example the 29th year's savings would be worth €1,000 at the end of 30 years.

    However, the cumulative 30 years of savings - adding in the up to 30 years of maturing - would be worth over €750,000, such is the power of compound interest.

    Not only that, by investing what would have been your deposit, rather than spending it on your house, that's turned from €45,000 into €260,000. So in total that's over €1,000,000 you have as your savings war-chest.

    At that point, you essentially have a choice - stay in the same place or find somewhere more suited to a couple whose kids had grown up and moved on. Suppose they decide to stay in the same house.

    For the buyer: They have no accommodation costs as long as they are happy to live in the same house and not have any need for their accumulated wealth. The opportunity cost is of course that they get no interest on their wealth.

    For the renter: On one hand, the €200,000 advantage from renting not buying would be enough to pay for about another 9 years of rent. Alternatively, you could use the interest from the €1m - probably about €30k a year every year - to pay the rent on an ongoing basis and not have to touch the war-chest. More likely, the couple would downsize to somewhere that suits their needs better.

    Does that make sense?

    Yes it does and thank you but I was kind of hoping you would stick to the figures you previously mentioned, i.e:

    "(a) spending €1,200 a month on a mortgage, or
    (b) spending €700 a month on rent and putting €500 a month into savings?
    Even without interest, you'd have €150,000 in savings at the end of 25 years. With interest and with a deposit hived away... well, that takes us back to the calculator."

    Yes after 25 years person B would have €150,000 in savings. But bring this forward another 15 years then it would look like this:
    Person A €1200 X 180 = €216,000
    Person B €500 X 420 = €240,000

    Again like your scenario it doesn't take into account interest, inflation etc. But the figures are not to far apart and person B is still paying rent. Oh and person A has a house :)

    Also I've seen renting long term in Europe mentioned. It is important to know that these properties (mostly appartments) are empty (even the light fightings are not fitted) and you are required to pay the management costs and council tax. I know because I spent the 12 years living in mainland Europe.


  • Registered Users Posts: 765 ✭✭✭oflahero


    alb wrote: »
    Funny how often you hear that rent is dead money but never that mortgage interest is dead money.

    Based on conversations I've had I think many people don't seem to realise how much the interest adds over the lifetime of a mortgage - that it's possible to pay the principle sum AGAIN in interest i.e. if you take a 250k mortgage you may (depending on term, rates etc) pay back something like 500k. Sure you have a house 'worth' 250k but you've also payed 250k 'dead money'

    +1 on this - I had a 'road to Damascus' moment when I first played around with Karl's mortgage calculator and saw, in stark terms, the huge amount of the repayment graph that was purely mortgage interest, not principal repayments.

    Everyone thinking of buying should be forced to experiment with that, even for 5 minutes. A quick couple of goes should be enough to convince anyone of the still-current lunacy of asking prices.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 3,619 ✭✭✭fontanalis


    ei.sdraob wrote: »
    7-8 grand supporting liverpool :eek:

    im still trying to figure out which half of that sentence is worse :D

    Obviously being from Liverpool he wants to keep a connection to the auld sod, god knows what he spends supporting England.


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,018 ✭✭✭shoegirl


    Rubbish on top of more rubbish. Why would you be paying a management fee if you are renting. You can rent houses you know as well?

    http://www.ronanlyons.com/

    Actually its not so management charges as "extras" that landlords add in. For example many, especially those who rent out Victorian conversions, have to use commercial waste services and pass the full cost straight back to tenants - which means tenants have no control over their waste charges. Some are still passing the full cost of the PRTB straight back to their tenants. And others still continue the henious practice of calculating ESB charges and adding on a "bit for myself" onto it. This happened to me back in 2004. I checked with Threshold and there isn't a single law then or enacted since to stop these illegal charges. The UK have had laws in place from the 90s.

    The problem with renting is that rent allowance has tended to inflate rents and prevent them falling like house prices do. Likewise a demand for small units for singles and childless couples has inflated prices at lower grades for what really should be very cheap flats/apartments and artisan dwellings. Where rents are "good value" is in the mid range, 2-bed suburban semi where yes, the rents are cheaper, but most of these properties are to quote an EA recently "tired" (i.e. un-maintained and/or dated decor). A lot of people get very fed up after years of living in poorly maintained places and want somewhere they can decorate as they like.

    I think its definitely true that not owning a property in your senior years is going to be a major issue. Also I don't think most people renting really have room for "savings" as many are renting precisely because they cannot afford to buy- which of course is a vicious circle as inflated rents then drain their potential savings potential.

    Really there is a need for better than the 2-way rent/buy binary.


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,458 ✭✭✭OMD


    ronanlyons wrote: »
    you will always have your memories of supporting Liverpool, for example.

    I don't think he will have any memories considering he is spending 3-4 thousand on drink a year.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,253 ✭✭✭halkar


    ronanlyons wrote: »
    Sure, let's work with one example, a 30-year-old couple who could buy a €450,000 house on a 30-year mortgage with a 10% deposit. Or else they could rent it, at a current cost of €1,350 per month (think Castleknock 4-bed semi, that kind of family home).

    Mortgage repayments would be €2,428 at a 6% interest rate, so in the first year of renting, your savings would be about €13,000. Invested for 30 years at an average return of 6%, your first year's savings would be worth just over €75,000.
    .....!

    How about a bit more realistic figures based on current market rates such as :
    5 year fixed mortgage via Aib is at the current rate of %3.32 with monthly payments as below (from their site based on 400k borrowed on 450k house):

    Years 1 - 5 1965 EUR -->. You may save 6k year for few years. Less if TRS available for FTB. If you are a couple with no kids or single and can rent a room under rent-a-room scheme there will be no savings in these years.

    Years 6 - 30 1674 EUR --> eventually rent may be more expensive than mortgage during these times which will eat the savings if one manage to save anything at all.

    Also I do not know of any bank giving 6% on savings either unless you plan to move money to off-shore acounts.

    I am by no means an economist but the numbers around rent vs mortgage does not make any sense to me. They may look good on the paper but in reality they are only fiction.


  • Registered Users Posts: 16,019 ✭✭✭✭niallo27


    ronanlyons wrote: »
    I agree with your general point - that's why if you were to do as the calculator suggests, it would have to be as big a decision as taking out a mortgage. Good personal finance takes discipline!

    Although as an economist, "pissing away money" is not the same as spending it enjoying yourself now as opposed to later - you will always have your memories of supporting Liverpool, for example.

    Yes but do you not think having a house to my name would be better than having memories, at the moment my mortgage payments would be less than my rent and when they go higher ill offset it with going to liverpool, might sound simple but cant live our life wondering what will happen in the future, and by the way im not buying a one bedroom apartment for 400 grand, im buying a 4 bed detached in my home town for 4 times my wages and 1 and half my missus's


  • Registered Users Posts: 16,019 ✭✭✭✭niallo27


    A depressingly common attitude in this country.

    If we all miserable old gits like you, we would end up killing ourselves.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 9,376 ✭✭✭ei.sdraob


    niallo27 wrote: »
    If we all miserable old gits like you, we would end up killing ourselves.

    Bertie is that you?


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 925 ✭✭✭billybigunz


    niallo27 wrote: »
    If we all miserable old gits like you, we would end up killing ourselves.

    I'm a doom and gloom merchant. I caused the recession. At the end of the day it is only money and money can't buy you happiness.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 46 ronanlyons


    halkar wrote: »
    How about a bit more realistic figures based on current market rates such as :
    5 year fixed mortgage via Aib is at the current rate of %3.32 with monthly payments as below (from their site based on 400k borrowed on 450k house):

    Years 1 - 5 1965 EUR -->. You may save 6k year for few years. Less if TRS available for FTB. If you are a couple with no kids or single and can rent a room under rent-a-room scheme there will be no savings in these years.

    Years 6 - 30 1674 EUR --> eventually rent may be more expensive than mortgage during these times which will eat the savings if one manage to save anything at all.

    Also I do not know of any bank giving 6% on savings either unless you plan to move money to off-shore acounts. .
    OK, it seems halkar can't be swayed (I've no idea where that yr 6-30 figures comes from, for example) but for others reading this forum, can I just point out a couple of things:
    (1) We are at the low point in the interest rate cycle, and this cycle is going particularly low because it's coming down from a low high, if that makes sense. It would be financial madness to plan on a 3% interest rate or even a 4% or 5% interest rate over the lifetime of your mortgage.

    The 2000s were an unusually low decade for interest rates (average mortgage interest rate 4.5%, per CSO). I'm not arguing we should expect a return to previous decades where you would be looking at 10%+, but in the eurozone, with an ECB rate averaging a conservative 3.5%-4% and Irish banks learning from their mistakes in the 2000s, the average rate can only be something in the region of 6%.

    A €400k mortgage over 90 yrs with 3.3% might give you a repayment of about €1,800 but at 6% it's €2,400 and at 8% it's almost €3,000. PLEASE DO NOT THINK 3% IS NORMAL!

    (2) Rent-a-room is not relevant - you can do that if you own your house or rent it out.

    (3) Rents will rise over the period, but an average of 2% inflation in rents (and again the last 10 years are not a good guide for the next 10) would still only make the monthly rent payment €2,450 after 30 years.

    (4) The 6% average return from savings comes from a simple average of (a) a 3% return on a savings account (something you can get even almost at this point in the interest rate cycle), and (b) a 9% return on investments, this figure has been chosen as it reflects the (developed) world average over the past 140 years of six percentage points above the savings rate.

    But of course the calculator is set up so that if you don't like using international historical averages for these things, you can change them. A 3.3% interest rate and a 4% investment return would indeed swing the maths substantially in favour of buying - but is it realistic?

    Savings are not dead money; you can use them to buy capital, which earns a return. This is essentially what you're doing with a mortgage just entirely concentrated into one capital asset, your house. But you can do it with any other asset too. The one advantage the mortgage has is that it is forced discipline - but you can imitate that with monthly savings plans, so that's not really an excuse to avoid thinking about your future finances.

    You may find that owning a house and living in it until you die makes sense for you - but we are all living longer so the strategy of staying in the house until you die and leaving it to your kids as a kind of death present (which they then cash in) cannot be relied upon to be enough.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,102 ✭✭✭am i bovvered


    This is one of the more refreshing balanced debates on here :)
    No issue is black and white, I believe the "rent is dead money" argument has been proven false, and like a lot opinions in Ireland peoples attutudes are moving from black and white to grey.
    ronanlyons.....If you don't believe you have the discipline to save on your own, set up a fixed ongoing deposit account, where you have to deposit every month or else you pay a penalty/your account breaks. That way, you can still take advantage of the liquidity if you really need it.

    I am a very disciplined saver, however I now realise with an great wife and 12 & 15 year old children, it is harder to keep the cash in the bank. This is a fact for me and other families, there are very compelling arguments as to why we NEED X Y or Z and I know if we had we been able to get our hands on more cash at that time we would have helped out the sick family member more or gone on that "well deserved" holiday or bought that second car, etc. I just think its human nature.

    However I must concede that the OP has convinced me that financially his model can make financial sense, if one has the correct disipline.


  • Registered Users Posts: 223 ✭✭NewDirection


    ronanlyons wrote: »
    (4) The 6% average return from savings comes from a simple average of (a) a 3% return on a savings account (something you can get even almost at this point in the interest rate cycle), and (b) a 9% return on investments, this figure has been chosen as it reflects the (developed) world average over the past 140 years of six percentage points above the savings rate.

    But of course the calculator is set up so that if you don't like using international historical averages for these things, you can change them. A 3.3% interest rate and a 4% investment return would indeed swing the maths substantially in favour of buying - but is it realistic?
    Just staying on the savings interest rate. I'm fairly averse to risk, my savings sit in the bank at they're best guaranteed savings rate. In reality would I be better off putting in a lower rate for savings return in the calculator.

    So for me would this be more accurate:
    Average Interest Rate 6%
    Annual return on investments 5%


    Btw, cheer Ronan for the great calculator, very interesting. And cheers to all who contribute on the thread, best discussion in a long time.


    Edit:
    By the way for my scenario. 5% as opposed to 6% shous a swing of €90,000 so it would be worth spending a bit of time discussing these figures.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,218 ✭✭✭beeno67


    Just staying on the savings interest rate. I'm fairly averse to risk, my savings sit in the bank at they're best guaranteed savings rate. In reality would I be better off putting in a lower rate for savings return in the calculator.

    So for me would this be more accurate:
    Average Interest Rate 6%
    Annual return on investments 5%

    Edit:
    By the way for my scenario. 5% as opposed to 6% shous a swing of €90,000 so it would be worth spending a bit of time discussing these figures.

    If you are simply going to leave the money in the bank then you are very unlikely to get 5%. If mortgage rates average 6% then deposit interest rates are more likely to average 3%


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 5 MG2


    beeno67 wrote: »
    If you are simply going to leave the money in the bank then you are very unlikely to get 5%. If mortgage rates average 6% then deposit interest rates are more likely to average 3%

    I assume you could increase your return nicely by putting the money into your pension


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,253 ✭✭✭halkar


    Rent is still dead money. No one will sit and save for 30 years regularly unless they are over the age of 50 and they can afford those rents.

    I am not advising anyone to go and buy houses. House prices are high and will go down.
    We bought our house in year 2000, same house was 3 times cheaper 1995. We did not buy in 1995 because we did not need to. After family grew we bought and had these exact same arguments as now, such as we were mad buying, houses are too expensive bla bla. We did not care as we were not buying a house but we were buying a HOME that we will do what we like and set our own rules in it rather than going by other's rules and paying other's mortgages. To us even if it is worth peanuts now or in the future it is our home that we cherish to bits.;)

    I would love to see success stories around this argument with someone renting and saving 30 years. It is not for faint hearted :D


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 925 ✭✭✭billybigunz


    I met a guy who told me rent is dead money. That same guy took his life 6 months ago after he found it hard to juggle 8 investment mortgages.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 5 MG2


    Monetweek did a case study on this

    http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7726389.stm

    The rent or buy decision is largely dependant on where you are in the cycle. Buying when houses are undervalued will be a good decison, overpaying will mean renting is better. The key and difficult bit is knowing where you are in the cycle I guess.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,218 ✭✭✭beeno67


    MG2 wrote: »
    I assume you could increase your return nicely by putting the money into your pension

    You could. The problem is after 25 years you may have your mortgage paid off. If you paid it into your pension, while you will have a very nice pension fund built up you will still have to rent.


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 3,619 ✭✭✭fontanalis


    halkar wrote: »
    Rent is still dead money. No one will sit and save for 30 years regularly unless they are over the age of 50 and they can afford those rents.

    I am not advising anyone to go and buy houses. House prices are high and will go down.
    We bought our house in year 2000, same house was 3 times cheaper 1995. We did not buy in 1995 because we did not need to. After family grew we bought and had these exact same arguments as now, such as we were mad buying, houses are too expensive bla bla. We did not care as we were not buying a house but we were buying a HOME that we will do what we like and set our own rules in it rather than going by other's rules and paying other's mortgages. To us even if it is worth peanuts now or in the future it is our home that we cherish to bits.;)

    I would love to see success stories around this argument with someone renting and saving 30 years. It is not for faint hearted :D

    Not everyone got a chance to buy at the right time.


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