US Greencard Through Diversity Lotto

Jager Man

Does anybody know on average how many people apply from Ireland? I'd imagine it's a small enough number (relatively) seeing as the program isn't promoted at all. Only a handful of people I know in Ireland know about it.

thenobody

Ive read before that it is possibly well over 100,000 (maybe even 200,000) with a bit over 100 selected.
Everyone i know knows about it and applies to it each year.

oldbeard

http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/TotalDVApplicantsbyCountry.pdf
Total Number of DV Lottery Applicants by Country from 2007-2012

Jager Man

Cheers Oldbeard, I had been looking for that for a long time and coulndn't find it! I'm surprised the number is so low, I thought it would be closer to 40,000 or 50,000 people.

Chances are obviously quite good then - visa a visa last year there was 6,900 applications and approx 200 people were offered, that's a one in 34/35.....

God can you tell I'm desperate!?

thenobody

Hmmm. Interesting.

Best to just put it completely outta your mind til july

Jager Man

thenobody wrote: »

Hmmm. Interesting.

Best to just put it completely outta your mind til july

You're right man! Talk then.....

FGR

Good thing I kept my confirmation number then. This is my seventh year applying and still no luck. By the above odds, with my luck, I'll be about 60 by the time I win a Green Card.

It's definitely a kick in the teeth for the people who had been informed that they had won. It was a massive error on their part but fair play to them for owning up to it as soon as they could.

G-Money

I was born and raised in Northern Ireland and I have an Irish passport. I've entered that visa lottery several times but I've never been selected. I usually put Northern Ireland as my country of origin or whatever that field is named as I thought that odd's wise, I'd have a better chance than if I entered myself as the Republic of Ireland.

Am I being a bit silly thinking that? Is there better odds if I enter myself as being from the North as there's less people there?

LiquidSquid

Hey there,
I've got a question regarding my eligibility for the program that I hope you guys can help me with.

I was born in England and lived there for six months until returning to Ireland with my Irish mother and British father, hence making me a citizen.

I've been really interested regarding the US Diversity lottery recently and I was looking for possible ways in which I would be eligible to enter it.

I was really excited about entering after seeing the numerous success stories on boards until I found that I may not be eligible to apply.

I found the following:

"Native of a country whose natives qualify:
In most cases, this means the country in which you were
born. However, there are two other ways you may be able to qualify. First, if you were born in a country
whose natives are ineligible but your spouse was born in a country whose natives are eligible, you can
claim your spouse’s country of birth—provided that both you and your spouse are on the selected entry,
are issued visas, and enter the United States simultaneously. Second, if you were born in a country
whose natives are ineligible, but neither of your parents was born there or resided there at the time of
your birth, you may claim nativity in one of your parents’ countries of birth if it is a country whose natives
qualify for the DV-2012 program."

Does that means that both of my parents would of had to be born outside of the UK? Which in my case would would see me ineligible? And also, they were living in the UK at the time of my birth so I would probably be ineligible in that context also? Or would I be able to just use Ireland (my mothers birthplace) as my country of eligibility?

Any information would be great appreciated.

snowy2011

guys,
anyone who knows they were selected this year, approx 22000. all is not lost check out
http://blog.visarefusal.com/

and they also have a facebook page, us 22000 winners cant be ignored

They have got an investigation into the results being cancelled.

heres hoping

thenobody

The simple fact is it is has to be fair and completely random.

In May it wasnt. And for everyone who applied the fair thing is to properly randomly pick them again.
For those who werent originally picked they would have a much much stronger case against the ones unfairly picked.
They have to be very careful on this I would think - but redoing it again seems the only fair and correct way.
If they allow the people who were originally selected they would be opening a huge hell hole of a mess for themselves with this and other visas. It just cant happen

snowy2011

where they not opening up a hell hole cancelling the results in the first place,
who is to say it wasnt random???
if you check out these sites below they have had experts look at it and say that yes it could have been random unusual but still random.

anyway just relaying what i have read, not here to argue.

baltazar

I've been keeping an eye on this movement since the day that the lottery results were voided and initially I thought that this was just people venting their frustration, however, they have gotten some serious media coverage - The Wall Street Journal, CBS, BBC and it seems that they have managed to rattle the cage of the State Department because within hours of the mention of a Class Action the DOS announced that they would be investigating the lottery fiasco.

It has been interesting watching this movement develop and if a class action is taken you never know what could happen. I think that the suggested solution that the 22000 people who checked and found out they had won before the website was locked down should be processed and the remaining 78000 wouldbe selected via the July 15th lottery. Being one of the 22000 may have something to do with this.

I don't really expect anything to come from this but it's intersting keeping an eye on it either way.

BuffyBot

us 22000 winners cant be ignored

I wouldn't put money on that..

little lady

Seems the law suit is talking off!!!

http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/breaking/2011/0621/breaking9.html

emeraldstar

:rolleyes: They've broken no commitment, the draw wasn't valid. End of. Move on.

starky

Just checking on this thread, what a mess the DV was this year. I have to say I would have been totally gutted if that had happened the year I was selected 2007 (DV-2008). I know that the letter of the law says the entries have to be randomly picked from the pool of successfully entrants, and I get it that this is not what happened, but to be selected and then to be told it was an error must have been crushing. I have a feeling that they might do something to honor the 22k that confirmed, apparently a bill could be pushed though that would enable the processing of the 22k people. As an IT professional, I hope that who ever was in charge of the selecting system gets fired out of there! I think that the US civil service is just as backward as the Irish one so I really doubt it.

Now that there is a class action on the table the DOS wont really want all the publicity, and they did make a huge mistake, so there might be a case.

They definitely need to run the standard lottery again and re select the correct entrants as per the law, but I think all those with case numbers from the mistake should have a chance to participate too. I think that any Judge would agree that is the fairest way to proceed. I’ll be really interested to see how the class action works out.

starky

One other thing, the odds of winning.

The first thing to note is that all the entrants are categorized into the regions EU/AF/OC/AS……..

Somehow (not 100% sure how) they decide the selection ratios or how many people to pick from each pool, that number normally adds up to about 100,000

So this sort of thing:

EU 30,000
AF 40,000
AS 20,000
……

Although the year that I won it seemed that if you just went by case numbers there were way more then 100,000 selected. I could only assume that there was some system in place for issuing case numbers that was not sequential but rather in batches, meaning that if your case number was EU0001000 you might not be the 1000th person to be selected, if the previous range was say EU0000001 - EU0000750 then you may be the 751st person to be selected. I never found any way of figuring this out.
You can see what I mean by looking at the 2009 bulletin. When you look at this one:

http://www.travel.state.gov/visa/bulletin/bulletin_4497.html

and add up all the case numbers you get:

99,980

which seems right on the face of it, 100,000 applicants and 100,000 case numbers give or take. However the Africa number later (Aug 09) moves to 64,000, all other regions current, so if you take the Africa number from the June total (99,980 - 39,600 = 60,980) then add back on the Africa number from Aug 09 (http://www.travel.state.gov/visa/bulletin/bulletin_4539.html) you can see the total goes to 124,000. This would suggest there are more then 100,000 case numbers, or at least that the case numbers are not sequential. Of course there may just be more then 100,000 selected, who knows! anyway, I digress.... by using ratios and the highest case numbers you can sort of guess how many people were selected from each region, its not exact but good enough for an approximation of the odds.

To be selected successfully you are competing with the amount of qualified entrants in the region pool that you are placed in. So as an example the year I was selected there were about 1.2 million people from the EU region, and between 30,000 and 40,000 (open to question but its somewhere in the right range) were selected. So the odds for me for DV2008 were:

~1 200 000 / 30 000 = 40
~1 200 000 / 40 000 = 50

taking an average say:

40+50 / 2 = 45

Or 1 in 45 which is about the same odds as winning the second lowest prize on the euro millions.
http://www.euro-millions.com/prizes.asp
Or lowest on the mega millions US lottery, which as it happens I would really like to win, although jackpot win is 1 in a 175 million which are ridiculous odds really, but if your not in ..... :-(

Of course you can only find this stuff out from the stats they release after the draw, and some of it is guess work due to the lack of transparency on what parameters are supplied to the DV algorithm and achieving pure “randomness” from a computer algorithm is a somewhat contentious issue in computer science circles, but that’s another story.

The reason that Ireland gets such low GC numbers is simply because the total number of Irish entrants that make up the 1.2 million or what ever the number is in a given year is low, as the population is small in Ireland.

Unfortunately they don’t release stats on how many people from each country in the region apply, (only GC's issued by country in DV category) but assuming the selection process is random then the amount of Irish winners would be a ratio that would for the most part match the ratio of qualified Irish people in the main EU pool of entrants.

Now there’s some really useless information from a computer scientist with too much time on his hands. ;-)

Edit added:

This table more or less confirms my odds:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Diversity_Immigrant_Visa

you can see here the odds of winning in EU in 2008 was 1.85%

my calculated odds were:

(((30,000 + 40,000) / 2 ) / 1200000) * 100 = 2.9%

Mine are a tad higher then the ones on the wiki page so lets go with them ;-)

starky

Keenan Some Stovepipe wrote: »

I still though there was only as 50% chance of been called for the interview then, since 100,000 get notification, then they issue out 50,000 green cards, anyways I can understand how much of a blow it must be. I would myself like to get a green card. Been applying for a few years now.

That's not true, there are a lot of other mechanics in play that would have an effect on being called for interview, which I would be happy to illustrate if anyone is intrested, if I have not bored everyone already ;-).

As far as I am aware the only year that the EU region cut off never advanced was 2005:

http://www.travel.state.gov/visa/bulletin/bulletin_2616.html

you can see here that if you had a case number higher then 20500 you were basically out of the running that year as this was the final bulletin for that year.

That would mean ever since that any one from Ireland that won the DV, and decided to go though the process and apply for the GC would have made it to an interview, when you see "CURRENT" on the bulletin it means that all applicants in that region have the chance of an interview.
Of course how the interview goes depends on all the things that have been already talked about on this thread (poverty limit, education, criminal checks etc) its failing on these things that normally weeds out the 50K (50%) or so applicants, along with specific high applicant countries (Egypt, Ethiopia,Nigeria - although not relevant to EU applicants as they are in a different region category) hitting the 3500 limit for GC's. You need to tick all the boxes to get the GC, and not all 100,000 will.
There is of course never any guarantee that your number will become current, all you really have is the historical data to go on to make a best guess for the current year.

davymc31

if you were picked and then told it was void this years diversity visa lotto you need to get in touch with me asap as we need your help as a group

thenobody

I tell ya, if i wasnt picked and those "22000" were given greencards I'd be equally as pissed.
They'd have just as much of a case - probably more - than the ones not correctly picked.
Guess they just dont care as much - but theres probably some rich weirdos out there who would go kick up a fuss anyway. Any ruling to allow greencards for the first selection will destroy the credibility of this thing for future years.

thenobody

starky wrote: »

There is of course never any guarantee that your number will become current, all you really have is the historical data to go on to make a best guess for the current year.

Yep and the majority of the people who get the application current will be going for two or three or four greencards (for the rest of the family) so that slows the rate down as the months progress.

little lady

thenobody wrote: »

I tell ya, if i wasnt picked and those "22000" were given greencards I'd be equally as pissed.

They are not looking to be given Greencards they are fighting to have the right to continue the process.

If they fail at the end of the process, and are not allocated a Greencard then fine, that's different.

thenobody

Ok ill re-word it.
I tell ya, if i wasnt picked and those "22000" were given selected status I'd be equally as pissed.

They have the right to continue. They can be selected again when the selection is correctly processed. But i know what you mean......

delama

Hi all,

could someone tell me if I applied to DV-2013 and actually got a green card, when would I have to be in the US by? I don't graduate from university until november 2014. Would I be able to delay till then? I don't want to enter on the off chance that I might actually get through, and then get a black mark on my name if I can't actually go.

any info is appreciated.
thanks

thenobody

delama wrote: »

Hi all,

could someone tell me if I applied to DV-2013 and actually got a green card, when would I have to be in the US by? I don't graduate from university until november 2014. Would I be able to delay till then? I don't want to enter on the off chance that I might actually get through, and then get a black mark on my name if I can't actually go.

any info is appreciated.
thanks

Hard to say. Depends on your interview date.
So let's say at the very latest interview June 2014 - very latest need to activate greencard by november 2014 - permanently move by may 2015 at latest. Then there is reentry permits.
But if interview in October 2013 latest have to move over is October 2014.

You're gonna need that degree for jobs but in reality Irish degrees arent fully given much significance and need to be accredited to the US somehow. Work experience is more valuable but depending on the job most places won't take into account Irish work experiences. Depends on the industry - as with most things Irish history does not carry over

delama

thanks thenobody. so are you saying that basically you have to move permanently by one year after the interview? Do you know when the earliest interviews are held?

my degree is in nursing, and the last 9 months is rostered placement, which i'm hoping will count as experience. I know i'll have to take an exam in California to get a licence to practice nursing there, but that all seems straight forward enough.

do you think if i was selected and didn't go to interview that it would affect my chances in the future? i realise that the odds aren't great of being selected in the first place, but don't want to take any chance either!!

thanks again.

lonestargirl

Green card holders are allowed to spend time outside the US without jepordising their status for legitimate reasons, attending college would be one of these, another would be a transfer abroad of a US based job. It would require a re-entry permit and maintaing ties like a bank account, filing taxes etc.

delama

so if by chance I got a green card, I go to the states to activate it, or whatever, come home, finish my degree and then move permanently?

I was reading up on re-entry permits, and it says I can stay out of the country for up to but not over a year without any permit, which would probably do it.

anyone know if I can open a bank account, etc with a po box address?? I'm assuming i'll need to have an address while i'm out of the country?, or maybe i'm wrong...

thanks for all the help...

thenobody

No, you need the permit to stay out of the country for a year.
The requirements of the greencard is you have to be in the country over 6 months of the year.
The re-entry permit will allow extra time away. It can take 6 to 8 weeks to get the re-entry permit when you apply for it so you would have to go to the states anyway for that time to get it after you have first gone on your activation trip and waited for and received the greencard.

Anyway, I wouldnt even bother thinking about it until you are actually picked.

PO Box wont do for a bank account. If you have a relative there that will do. You will need to sort out your social security number etc first as well. Opening a bank account (and one without massive fees) is a lot more difficult than you think after moving over.

Also, bear in mind that if you do activate it and go back to ireland for a while you will still need to do tax returns in the US (and Ireland) for that tax year. And you will have to pick the state you sent your greencard to since you wont be resident in any state yet - but you are considered a resident for the year for tax purposes as soon as you get the greencard. You will probably have to pay some taxes on your irish income in that time.