US Greencard Through Diversity Lotto

jme2010

circular flexing wrote: »

According to CNN, Trump has offered a path to citizenship for up to 1.8 million illegal immigrants (primarily DACA recipients) in exchange for (amongst other things) abolition of the DV.

Next he'll tell them they won a free boat...when they come to collect, BAM deported.

Dublin991

I have just been i formed i have my embassy interview in May.

What exactly will I need? If i have a job offer how much savings will be sufficient?

minidazzler

jme2010 wrote: »

Simple. Step 1. Let her know you are Irish in your best Irish brogue. Step 2. Green Card Marriage. :P

Doesn't work... they always decide they want to live here... trust me on that!

*finishes packing for holiday to see american girlfriend*

As much as i dislike the policies... I'm kinda banking on trumps inherent racism to hope i get my application picked this year.

4068ac1elhodqr

minidazzler wrote: »

As much as i dislike the policies... I'm kinda banking on trumps inherent racism to hope i get my application picked this year.

Theoretically he would prefer bringing in folks from NW Europe, rather than Tichickyshetieikzackistan or somewhere.

That either means removing from the list a whole load of countries (that have historically done very well), or a dropping the DV program altogether, and having a totally new points-based system.

Donald Trump

fleet wrote: »

Another way to look at it is: start at 18 and by 27, finished college, saved a few quid you'd have had a 1 in 5 chance. One in two by the time you hit 41. Not bad frankly. Throw in other avenues, sponsorship, alternatives such as Canada, Australia or more exciting Asian countries and you're basically guaranteed to get permanent residency somewhere warm (except Canada!) outside Ireland if you want it.

Well your maths is wrong. Assuming the chances of success in any given year as 2.15127% from the above, the probability of success only surpasses 50% if you assume at least 32 entries... i.e. when you are 49 assuming entry number 1 at 18 and you enter every year. 41 (24 entries) gets you to 40.66%.


But look on the bright side, if a person plans to enter every year from age 18, up to and including age 81, then there will be a 75.14% probability that they'll win.

Assuming the submit up to age 123 will bring the stat to just over 90% :-)


Age
18 2.2%
19 4.3%
20 6.3%
21 8.3%
22 10.3%
23 12.2%
24 14.1%
25 16.0%
26 17.8%
27 19.5%
28 21.3%
29 23.0%
30 24.6%
31 26.2%
32 27.8%
33 29.4%
34 30.9%
35 32.4%
36 33.8%
37 35.3%
38 36.7%
39 38.0%
40 39.4%
41 40.7%
42 41.9%
43 43.2%
44 44.4%
45 45.6%
46 46.8%
47 47.9%
48 49.0%
49 50.1%
50 51.2%
51 52.3%
52 53.3%
53 54.3%
54 55.3%
55 56.2%
56 57.2%
57 58.1%
58 59.0%
59 59.9%
60 60.7%
61 61.6%
62 62.4%
63 63.2%
64 64.0%
65 64.8%
66 65.5%
67 66.3%
68 67.0%
69 67.7%
70 68.4%
71 69.1%
72 69.8%
73 70.4%
74 71.1%
75 71.7%
76 72.3%
77 72.9%
78 73.5%
79 74.0%
80 74.6%
81 75.1%
82 75.7%
83 76.2%
84 76.7%
85 77.2%
86 77.7%
87 78.2%
88 78.6%
89 79.1%
90 79.6%
91 80.0%
92 80.4%
93 80.8%
94 81.3%
95 81.7%
96 82.1%
97 82.4%
98 82.8%
99 83.2%
100 83.6%
101 83.9%
102 84.3%
103 84.6%
104 84.9%
105 85.2%
106 85.6%
107 85.9%
108 86.2%
109 86.5%
110 86.8%
111 87.1%
112 87.3%
113 87.6%
114 87.9%
115 88.1%
116 88.4%
117 88.6%
118 88.9%
119 89.1%
120 89.4%
121 89.6%
122 89.8%
123 90.0%
124 90.2%
125 90.5%
126 90.7%
127 90.9%
128 91.1%
129 91.2%
130 91.4%
131 91.6%
132 91.8%
133 92.0%
134 92.1%
135 92.3%
136 92.5%
137 92.6%
138 92.8%
139 93.0%
140 93.1%
141 93.3%
142 93.4%
143 93.5%
144 93.7%
145 93.8%
146 94.0%
147 94.1%
148 94.2%
149 94.3%
150 94.5%
151 94.6%
152 94.7%
153 94.8%
154 94.9%
155 95.0%

jme2010

I don't think that's how probability works guys.

Each time you do a lottery you have the same chance of winning it as the previous try, given the number of combinations are the same.

By your logic if I rolled a die 6 times I have the best chance of getting the number I want on the 6th roll if that number has not come up before.

Not to derail the thread or anything

4068ac1elhodqr

jme2010 wrote: »

I don't think that's how probability works guys.

Each time you do a lottery you have the same chance of winning it as the previous try, given the number of combinations are the same.

By your logic if I rolled a die 6 times I have the best chance of getting the number I want on the 6th roll if that number has not come up before.

Not to derail the thread or anything

Yes, and no. Yes, the chance of 2% or whatever it is remains static, but the number of 'attempts' will therefore increase overall chances.

The principle of 'if your not in you can't win', multiplied.

e.g. If I ask 100 ladies at a singles bar if they fancy a bit of horizontal-romance-recreational times, sure sooner or later someone would accept the invitation, before the night is out even though each individual chance may about 2% to begin with.

As a side topic, I've calculated^- that at least one of the following numbers may well appear in this Friday's Euromillions 1, 16, 42, 43. Possibly also 18, 30, 49 if you're looking for two. ^No guarantee, but some amount of 'appearance expectation' exists.

For the next DV there is possibility of further chances due to the possibility of Chad, Iran, Libya, Somalia, Syria, and Yemen all being removed in the near future, assuming it still continues.

jme2010

Draw is on Tuesday, right?

I have my IEC visa and will be planning to move to Canada in July.

I think my opinion of living in the US has changed over the last year. With all the mass shootings and Trump economy, Canada looked way more attractive to me while still giving that 'Americanised' feeling.

I don't know what I would do if my number was called for the lottery now that I have an IEC to try.

oB1

jme2010 wrote: »

Draw is on Tuesday, right?

I have my IEC visa and will be planning to move to Canada in July.

I think my opinion of living in the US has changed over the last year. With all the mass shootings and Trump economy, Canada looked way more attractive to me while still giving that 'Americanised' feeling.

I don't know what I would do if my number was called for the lottery now that I have an IEC to try.

Draw is on Tuesday, right?

Yes.

Considering the odds of actually getting selected, you would be incredibly stupid not to proceed with the Green Card application. If you got selected and did not proceed, imagine how those of us who would give their right arm for a green card would feel? - it would be a wasted opportunity.

I appreciate your perspective, though.

hypochondriac

There is a very helpful website that covers all the aspects of DV lottery winning: BRITSIMON SAYS

http://britsimonsays.com/interview-experience-stories/

You can also visit 2016, 2017 DV WINNERS MEET HERE FORUMS and study all the threads. I suppose this study is needed to make sure you do all the steps right and all the knowledge you build up in the process of reading those threads is invaluable. You cam also post questions in those immigration threads and get prompt answers from people who have been moderators of the forum, better than any attorney. Good luck.

markodaly

Anyone with any luck?

jme2010

markodaly wrote: »

Anyone with any luck?

No luck for me or my partner - this must be the 3rd or 4th attempt. So 6-8 entries in total.

We do have our IEC visa's though

Maybe in 2-3 years if we have Canadian citizenship we will finally move in to the States. All you need is a job offer, no sponsorship for CA citizens.

circular flexing

jme2010 wrote: »

No luck for me or my partner - this must be the 3rd or 4th attempt. So 6-8 entries in total.

We do have our IEC visa's though

Maybe in 2-3 years if we have Canadian citizenship we will finally move in to the States. All you need is a job offer, no sponsorship for CA citizens.

Canadian citizenship is probably closer to 5 years, need at least 3 years residency (excluding any time spent in US/overseas) and the process takes about a year. Even then the job offer has to be in specific roles and is completely dependent on NAFTA and who knows where that might end up. Finally the TN visas don't lead to a green card.

myate

No luck on this front...4th year trying for myself & herself. Probably my last realistic shot too as hitting 40 next year, not exactly wanting to change careers at 42 in a new country (if I was to be successful next year)!!

jme2010

circular flexing wrote: »

Even then the job offer has to be in specific roles, TN visas don't lead to a green card.

I'm a software engineer so at least the role box is ticket. Sure we'll see how Canada goes.

younggalway

I applied for the first time and was unsuccesful. Have to admit I was not overly dissapointed as I have a job lined up for after college in September so hoping there might be opportunities for transfer with them two years down the line once I have some experience.

Also reassuring to see people in their forties applying (no reason that they shouldn't of course), I've just turned 25 having taken a very scenic route through education and was worried I might lose interest by the time in 27/28.

Fr Tod Umptious

Is there a DV 2020 lottery, i.e application process something 10/2018 ?

I don't seem to see much official about one

Or I may be looking in the wrong place.

Also does anyone know if one can win it twice ?

I was successful back in DV-99 and lived there for a few years

But I left before getting citizenship and let my green card lapse (the US was no longer my primary residency)

Does that exclude me if I won it again I wonder ?

myate

Yes there is a 2020 lottery. October to November entry as normal.


This guy is the guy in the know, he'd be the one to ask about winning twice - http://britsimonsays.com/dv-2020-to-be-announced-tomorrow/

scdublin

Think I've applied 4 times now and no luck. Fingers crossed for this time!

jme2010

scdublin wrote: »

Think I've applied 4 times now and no luck. Fingers crossed for this time!

If you're under 35, why not try Canada?


I had tried 4 years for the DV lottery. Instead I applied for Canada and got accepted straight away. Now I'm sipping coffee in my condo apartment looking at a skyscraper view of downtown Toronto.


The traffic lights are yellow, free right turns, red fire trucks, sports bars on every corner, taco bell's and wendys everywhere, 90 minute drive to Buffalo New York....for all intents and purposes this is basically America, but with nicer people, eh?



So to anyone reading this who is desperate to win the DV lottery and matches the criteria, just come to Canada instead.



Some other nice things are free health care and a very open minded population.



Fly to Los Angles in under 5 hours and as cheap as €250 return.

cena

I have gone and entered my date of birth the wrong way round

cena

I have gone and entered my date of birth the wrong way round

jme2010

cena wrote: »

I have gone and entered my date of birth the wrong way round

lol

Just back from a long weekend road trip to Atlantic City from Toronto.

Consider moving to Canada. The US boarder agent gave me a piece of paper in my passport thats valid for 3 months. Said 'come back as much as you like'

Only a few weeks ago we drove to NYC. Ridiculous stuff.

4068ac1elhodqr

cena wrote: »

I have gone and entered my date of birth the wrong way round

Some would say you failed on the 'unofficial basic logic competence test', but who knows it may be overlooked, hard really to say for sure.

Some interesting figures from previous draw: 14.7m applicants, 55,000 visas.

ROI Apps: 10,000c GC offered: x123 = 1.23 % chance
NIR Apps: 2,000c GC offered: x16 = 0.8% chance

Generally 100/1 chance.

Donald Trump

Raelyn Hot Magenta wrote: »

Some would say you failed on the 'unofficial basic logic competence test', but who knows it may be overlooked, hard really to say for sure.

Some interesting figures from previous draw: 14.7m applicants, 55,000 visas.

ROI Apps: 10,000c GC offered: x123 = 1.23 % chance
NIR Apps: 2,000c GC offered: x16 = 0.8% chance

Generally 100/1 chance.

I think 5000 of those 55000 are ringfenced and not really available

4068ac1elhodqr

Donald Trump wrote: »

I think 5000 of those 55000 are ringfenced and not really available

Perhaps, if the term from 2020 applies to the DV2020 taking place currently in 2018.

Don really doesn't like the bad hombres, think that 5k are being taken from S.America region.

RCK1

The information is great on this thread thanks!

Entered into the lottery again for the second time. Living/Working in the states has always been something I wanted to do so here's hoping for a ALOT of luck in getting it.

I'm sure it's probably being discussed(just say the page numbers if so) do they check your savings/ how much do you need and also is there a time limit on the green card to activate it etc...?

Thanks

jme2010

RCK1 wrote: »

Living/Working in the states has always been something I wanted to do so here's hoping for a ALOT of luck in getting it.

Come to Canada. Looks and sounds like America. Drive to Seattle or New York every weekend if you please.

No 'luck' needed just fill out the forms and start a new life

RCK1

jme2010 wrote: »

Come to Canada. Looks and sounds like America. Drive to Seattle or New York every weekend if you please.

No 'luck' needed just fill out the forms and start a new life

And also without the orange one. I definitely going to look into it.