Aim- 200Pt Profit from Horses before end of April

Amigomenor

Looking forward to the start of the flat!

Remember always take prices on singles as they are guaranteed!! This thread shall prove very successful for my followers who would have benefited nicely after some big price winners at Cheltenham.

My aim in life is to see my readers win money from those bookies who I detest. These selections give you the benefit of my years of experience.

Shall post my review after racing today.

20c Doncaster - 3PTS ew Joseph Henry (33/1)- Shall like the ground and Nicholls only runner in the race.

2.35 Doncaster - 5pts win Arthurs Edge (13/2)- Improving Sprinter who has race fitness on his side.

3.10 Doncaster - Prime Exhibit (11/1) - 4pts EW (5 places)- His last run should have put him spot on, good jockey taking 3lbs off him and the draw is fine as low is very much the bias at Doncaster. Mias By and Collateral Damage 1pt ew both as they rate as dangers based off recent form.

2.50 Kepmton- Extra 2 furlongs will help Baylini here who was staying on well last time out. 2PT EW at 16/1


Total stake 27 PTS YTD -8PTS after last week.

As per usual I shall do my customary Lucky 15 on the main selections above however I shall leave that up to the readers.

Amigomenor

No Luck again Saturday, thought Joseph Henry ran well in the first before getting tired, will make a note of him for next time out.
Arthurs Edge had his limitations exposed. He needs to go back in class.
Baylini ran well to be 4th but did not really stay the full 1m3f, he will be difficult to win with now.
And finally in the Lincon Prime Exhibit ran a very good race to be a clear second to what we can now call the "good thing" in the field.

Loss on the day -11pts Total Loss to date -19pts.

Will post when I see my next fancies, still confident of reaching the aim of this thread within the timeline. Will not go beyond 10pts on any horse to achieve this objective.

Amigomenor

Loss -19pts after 2 weeks.

Todays Selections are as follows

3.30 Haydock : Will be done (16/1)- jumps well, will go on the ground and the stable in better form. Cant see him being out of the first 3 and reckon he may even get a soft lead. Recommend 3ps ew.

4.35 Haydock : Have You Seen Me (10/1)- Shall forgive his lasr run when he did not settle before unseating the jockey. Time before that he ran a good race in defear. Recommend 3pts EW.

2.50 Carlisle- Morgan Be (33/1) - Has run poorly last 2 runs and was out on his feet last time out in a 4m, however he does stay and jump and this race is not as hot as his last 2 . On his form from a few seasons back he is a good each way bet in a race where the majority are past their best. Recommend 2pts ew.

3.25 Carlisle- Panama at Once (9/1) - On ratings he is well ahead of the rest of these. Although he has top weight he has won on this ground and is a proven stayer. He is my idea of the nap of the day and will suggest 5pts EW on him.

On top of this I would not put anyone off having a EW Lucky 15 on these 4 in case they all go in. If there is only 1 winner there will still be profits and that what this thread is all about.

Shall post later how they get on. Still confident of reaching the 200 pts by end of April especially with some great racing over the coming weeks.

Todays Total Stake 26pts

Amigomenor

Loss 9pts Loss to date -28pts.

Less said about yesterdays selections the better.

Today at Fairyhouse.

2.55 Ambitious Fan (5pts ew @20/1)- Won well at Gowran last time out and has a featherweight here.

3.30 Deal Done (1pts ew) -Was impressed with his win last time out in Navan and he jumped super. Suggest 1pt ew at 33/1

4.05 The Burow Vic (3pts EW)- Very open race but I like the low weight this heavy ground winner has. Suggest 3pts ew at 14/1


Total Stake 18pts

Amigomenor

Hit the crossbar today, 2 pts profit now mean that the bank is -26pts to date.
Good racing tomorrow to look forward to and confident of finding profitable winners.

Will be staking up to 50 pts tomorrow but may well concentrate on the value race the National, with 5 places and guaranteed odds.

Whatyouthink and Leanne are suggested for 5pts ew at 22/1 and 40/1 for now in the National.

Amigomenor

2.50 Fairyhouse. 5pts Win Hold the Pin 13/2

4.05 Stewarts House 22/1 5pts EW.

3.45 Redcar Star Addition 2pts EW

Total Stake Today 39pts

Amigomenor

57pts profit today, now profit to date 31pts. 200pts should be no problem for this month.
Hold the Pin won very easily but the ground is very bad at Fairyhouse. Whatyouthink came back at 33/1 so these guaranteed price races are great and this is such an example.
Hope people had these 2 today. Now will look fwd to tomorrow before Aintree this Thursday.

Amigomenor

Not sure if the racing will go ahead tomorrow however my selections will be as follows . Profit at Present +31pts


3.35 Golden Silver (3pts ew@7/1)- Will go on the ground and jumps well. Has a lot of weight but think he can cope with it against inferior rivals.

4.10 Sky Hall 2pts EW at 16/1- Will go on the ground , good claimer on board and has a good each way chance.

Total Staked 10pts.

Amigomenor

Another 20pts profit today bring the total profit to date to 51pts.

Golden Silver never really looked in any danger.

Next tips this Thursday at Aintree as I do not like the card at Fairyhouse tomorrow.

Lets hope all my readers are making money. This as you know is the second blog I have started, the first one achieved its objective which was to make money at Cheltenham 2010. This one will again achieve its objective.

Remember always take prices , seek out value and just enjoy the racing and the profits that come your way!

Amigomenor

Not much value around tomorrow. Will post any additional selections online later but for now its Trust Fund in the Foxhunters, 10pts win @ 13/2. Won the race last year and aside from the favourite Baby Run has little to beat.

Total Profit to date 51pts

Amigomenor

No joy today, yet to watch the race but gather Trust Fund made too many mistakes to win.

Profit to date 41pts . Now for tomorrows selections

3.10 Jack the Giant 1pt EW @25/1- Will improve for his run at Cheltenham and will like the track.

3.45 Private Be 1pts EW - well handicapped and could surprise if he takes to these fences. 1pts EW Isnt that Lucky- reckon he has a big run in him off this weight.

4.55 - 1pt EW Dancing Dik- good jockey on board and beaten by a well handicapped horse last time out.


Total Staked Today 8pts. Target still attainable.

Amigomenor

Break even today, still 41pts profit month to date so pleased with that.

Very confident for tomorrow, tend to always win on the National, and have had some massive proced winners in the past, not Mon Mome but had a nice bet on Royal Athlete some year back at 66/1.

Shall post selections in the morning but will be staking most of the profits for the month to date on the race. Again the value is there 5 place and 1/4 the odds, hard not to win!

Cloudy Lane is a certain selection for me at this point, suggest 5 pts EW. Great National trainer and this horse started favourite for the race 2 years back when 6th behind Comply or Die. Take the 50/1 available as its guranteed odds on singles.

Amigomenor

2.50 3pts win Muirhead @ 16/1- will take a chance he will like the good ground and that missing Cheltenham will leave him spot on to take advantage of others who ran there.

3.25 Alderburn- 2pts EW 16/1, reckon the good ground will suit him well. He can track the leaders around here and take it up 2f out. Has a bit of class on his day but can be in and out of form.

4.15 Aintree The Grand National
Already advised 5pts EW on Cloudy Lane at 40/1.

My other selections are Dream Alliance (5pts EW @40/1), Won the Welsh National well and is the right age for the race at 9. In addition to this he was a good novice before he got injured and this good ground may bring about him recapturing some of that form.

Conna Castle (2pts ew @150/1)- Was again a decent novice and do expect him to perform on this good ground, actually beat Big Zeb on 1 occasion. Massive price and a great young jockey.

Joe Lively (2pts EW@66/1) - If he takes to the fences he wont run like a 66/1 shot. He will be up there from the start!

Total Staked today (all profits remember) 35pts .

Let me know how you get on and if anyone backs these. I dislike bookies and hope that I am not the only one making cash from this thread. As I showed previoiusly at Cheltenham I make money for the readers and am sure that should continue to happen. I will be continuing with this blog as it adds discipline to my selections and look forward to coming back on here talking about another big National pay day for me.

Good luck all and remember to enjoy!

Amigomenor

No joy today, horses ran reasonable. Profit for month now back to 6pts.
Will have to get a move on to make the 200 pts this month as promised.

What I do not like about the National is the way all the prices get shortened by the bookies on course and those unfortunates who don't take a price get hammered on the SP. Still in a bit of shock at the price the winner returned, when I tipped him last time out at Cheltenham it was clearly just to put him right for today. He was not my idea of the winner but he did it well.

Capall Dorcha

Good show yesterday, but just a bit unlucky.

Muirhead ran a great race but was just beaten bya better horse.

Alderburn, didn't really show too much at all.

The national as most jockeys will tell you is a complete lottery, Conna castle had the right idea jump off in front, (make your own mistakes and lose as opposed to being brought down by another horse). he just didn't get the trip.

Top four had the two joint favourites Don't push it & Big fella Thanks @ 10/1, Black Apalachi @ 14/1 & State of play @ 16/1, The bookies got hammered so that must make you happy at least.

I notice another horse you tipped at cheltenham From Dusk Till Dawn had a good win yesterday too @ 12/1.

6pts profit and only 19 days to go.... (tough task!!)

good thread keep it up.

Verance

Amigomenor wrote: »

What I do not like about the National is the way all the prices get shortened by the bookies on course and those unfortunates who don't take a price get hammered on the SP.

Absolutely ridiculous, the bookies returned an over-round of 155 percent!
And they're saying they lost 50 million! The winner's SP was 10/1 while the Tote paid 15.70 and Betfair SP was over 18/1 :mad:

Amigomenor

Verance not sure if you are misunderstanding me, my point being that the bookies shorten the prices on course so as their off course liabilities in the shops are greatly reduced.

If you look at yeaterdays race the vast majority of the field shortened in price from what they were listed in the morning papers.
Some of the prices being returned were just crazy, Beat the Boys and Joe
Lively in particular were cut form 80/1 to approx 33/1.

I know the bookies say they were hammered however I do not think it was as bad as they let on, the problem for them was that the placed horses were a bad result in that they were all fancied.

On yesterdays racing Muirhead ran well just beaten by a better horse. Alderburn finished 5th but was never really in with a chance, the winner was a tip of mine for Cheltenham but I did not think he would run as well again so soon after, plus i thought the track would be a bit fast for him.

For the National I could not be having the winner although I did tip him in my Cheltenham thread. He looked to win with a lot in hand, the runner up ran a great race and makes you think he would have won for sure last year if he had not unseated.

Tomorrows selection Rocker 3.50 Windsor, 3pts EW @ morning odds approx 10/1., down form his last winning mark, better for his comback run and will like the track.

Total Staked 6pts

Verance

Amigomenor wrote: »

Verance not sure if you are misunderstanding me, my point being that the bookies shorten the prices on course so as their off course liabilities in the shops are greatly reduced.

If you look at yeaterdays race the vast majority of the field shortened in price from what they were listed in the morning papers.
Some of the prices being returned were just crazy, Beat the Boys and Joe
Lively in particular were cut form 80/1 to approx 33/1.

I know the bookies say they were hammered however I do not think it was as bad as they let on, the problem for them was that the placed horses were a bad result in that they were all fancied.

I understand perfectly (I think) and agree 100 percent! Particularly with bolded above.

Lots of horses were shortened dramatically and very few lenghtened, if any.
An over-round of 155% is absolutely unacceptable imo.

Amigomenor

Yes it was the worst SP returns produced on the National in over 20 years i believe. Everyone should take prices now that they are guaranteed on singles in most shops. If you let the bookies manipulate the market they will do just that. Beginning to fear for racing overall due to a few factors, bookies greed, lack of TV coverage, falling attendences, over population of bad horses and the fact that young people have limited interest in the sport.
Looking at the Curragh yesterday i reckon O'Brien s messing will have put a few more off the flat, outsider of 2 winning the opener, Fame and Glory being given a prep race on the track, and a gamble on the perceived second string in the last that never really looked like coming off.
Anyhow I still have an objective to reach so best concentrate on that!

Amigomenor

Another crossbar, Rocker ran well to finish second.

Profit Month to date is now 14pts after this second. Reckon I shall wait now til Newmarket on Wednesday.

Amigomenor

Todays Selections, profit to date 14pts

3.0C Newmarket 5pts Win Hot Prospect- Will appreciate the step up in distance and imagine this race was laid out for him some time back. Take 8/1 on offer.

4.10 Srda (2pts EW @ 25/1) -Won both his races well to date and trainer is always happy to take on the class acts. 7f will be right up his street.

4.45 Prizefighting (3pts win @ 11/2)- His win at Kempton last year was amazing to watch. Came from a mile back and won on the bridle. This step up in distance will only improve him.

5.55 Swiss Cross (2pts EW @18/1)- Stable had a few winner already think the drop in trip will suit. He should be running on late.

Total Stake 16pts. Lets let this thread back on target!

Amigomenor

No joy today. -2ps month to date.
Will have to do some amount of work now, but who does not love a challenge!

POINTBREAK

Interesting thread. What size bank are you using?

Amigomenor

I am using a bank of 100pts although I expect to be making profits.

Have taken a good look at todays racing and come up with the following suggestions.

3.20 Cheltenham- 3 pts EW Miss Overdrive @16/1 - extra 2 furlongs here will help afte finishing strong at Newbury last time out when running on from a long way out. Has a bit to find with Banjaxed Girl and Kerada but the extra distance should assist her.

3.55 Cheltenham - 3pts EW Racing Demon @ 20/1- Ran well at Cheltenham and looked to come there with every chance down the hill. Was run out of it but given an easy enough time when he was tapped for speed. This race looks a lot weaker and the good ground should be in his favour also.

4.30 Cheltenham - Florida Dream 2pts EW @ 12/1- Was the best of these in a past life and has looked like he retains some form now he is hunter chasing. Expect the ground to help him have a easy enough lead in front and he normally is a good jumper.

3.0c Newmarket - 10pts wIn Equiano @ 3/1- Class act by a long way in this race and ran his best race last year on his comeback when 2nd to a good yardstick in Tax Free. On his 3 year old form he would be odds on for this and I make him my nap today to win and win well.

3.35 Newmarket - 5pts EW Dancing David @6/1- Will like the better ground and could well reverse the Racing post form with Elusive Pimpernell. Looks like an each way bet to nothing.

Again please feel free to do combitations on the above.

Total Stake 36PTS

Good luck

Gavin "shels"

Amigomenor wrote: »

4.30 Cheltenham - Florida Dream 2pts EW @ 12/1

3.0c Newmarket - 10pts wIn Equiano @ 3/1

3.35 Newmarket - 5pts EW Dancing David @6/1

Placed
Won
Placed


Fairplay man.

Amigomenor

Good day today, 27pts profit leaves the over balance at +25pts month to date.
Will be posting selections for tomorrow later on tonight.

Amigomenor

Profit Month to date 25pts

2.40 Newbury- Cheveton (5ps EW @ 8/1)- Will like this sharp five furlongs and is a previous course winner. Well in with some of the others in this race and should go close

3.25 Ayr - Takeroc (5pts EW @ 14/1) - Has been very disappointing since joining Nicholls. Ran a good race behind Nobel Alan last year at Aintree on good ground. With Ayr going to be on the fast side I shall side with him to run a big race.

Total Staked 20 Pts

Amigomenor

Tackeroc placed 3rd at 18/1 so profit month to date is 32pts. Obejective to make 200 points not exactly on track but still a bit of time to achieve it.

Mnarani 2.40 Ponterfract- 5pts EW @ 9/2- reckon he will stay the 12f and has been dropped to a low mark. Not a fan of the paper favourite and happy to take him on here.

x PyRo

Mnarani is 14/1 not 9/2 dude.

Amigomenor

14/1 was some price based off his form but considering how he ran he should have been 1000/1!
Anyhow profit month to date now 22pts

Selections for Punchestown

4.55 Streets of Gold 3pts EW @20/1 - Big handicap in this one, no idea who the jockey is but with Mr Roche you never know what is going on!

6.05 Salford City 3pts EW @33/1 -Will set a good pace and a good horse on his day. The ground will suit and I expect Carberry to be positive on this fella.

6.40 Jandali 5pts Win - Overpriced due to coming from a small stable but he won well the last day and I shall take him to follow up.

2.30 Folkestown - 3pts EW Thoughts of Stardom @8/1- well in on weights and a good pace will set this up for him.

Total Stake 23pts, enjoy!

Amigomenor

6.40 Punchestown - 5pts EW In Compliance @16/1- falling in the weights and not running bad, this is not a strong contest and he is my NAP today.

7.15 Punchestown Southwestern 5pts EW @25/1- He would have won this race by a mile 2 years ago, ground at Cheltenham last time went against him. He has a big chance here and I am expecting big things.

20pts Staked.