April 2010 Boards forecast contest

M.T. Cranium

Sorry, but the time deadline rules are firm, to protect the "long range" element of the forecast.

Danno

He did omit the 6th question in fairness... ?

M.T. Cranium

Well, I made that decision in part thinking what the regular contest entrants might think about an entry on the 3rd of the month (rules do state clearly that 2nd is the deadline). But if nobody objects this one time, I would allow this forecast (same penalty as for 2nd but above 55 not 60). From now on, however, I will lock the thread if possible (at the deadline) to avoid this problem. Decision is subject to group consensus. Let me know.

M.T. Cranium

The high was reported at 8.8 C for Mullingar on Sunday 4th.

Kindred Spirit hit that right on, and the two closest forecasts after that came from Joe Public and Waterways.

Joe Public

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

Well, I made that decision in part thinking what the regular contest entrants might think about an entry on the 3rd of the month (rules do state clearly that 2nd is the deadline). But if nobody objects this one time, I would allow this forecast (same penalty as for 2nd but above 55 not 60). From now on, however, I will lock the thread if possible (at the deadline) to avoid this problem. Decision is subject to group consensus. Let me know.

Since talkabout is a new entrant and didn't go fo the bonus question you could let it slide for this time only. The best way is to lock the thread but I think you need extra rights to be able to do this, one of the nice moderators might be able to facilitate.

thetonynator

Joe Public wrote: »

Since talkabout is a new entrant and didn't go fo the bonus question you could let it slide for this time only. The best way is to lock the thread but I think you need extra rights to be able to do this, one of the nice moderators might be able to facilitate.

or the great M.T. Cranium could be made a moderator???

M.T. Cranium

Yep, I would get a mod to lock the thread (for about three days) then re-open it when we want to start discussing the month. I wouldn't want to be a moderator, and I think the forum is well moderated now. As to the talkabout forecast, I guess we'll take this one under the terms I mentioned, after all this is basically just for fun so, as past and present luminaries have given their blessing, I feel comfortable about bending the rule this time.

Anyway, seems like a pretty wet start to the month.

Joe Public

It's actually a wet and very windy start to the month, some of the golf shots today nearly boomeranged back to hit us. Luckily the east side of the country had a mostly dry day and the 2nd lot of rain arrived with the darkness.

M.T. Cranium

I took a quick look at how the month is unfolding. So far, looks like mean temperature is around 6.5 C, the rainfall is running well above normal at about 230% and sunshine is slightly above 105%.

As I have heard no objections, Talkabout's forecast is hereby added to the list:

Forecaster ....... Mean ..... Max ..... Min .....Rain% ... Sun% ... 4th

snow ghost .... 10.0 ...... 19.7 ..... -3.1 ..... 170 ..... 95 ..... 10.2
John mac ........ 9.8 ...... 20.6 ..... -5.2 ..... 130 ..... 98 ..... 11.6
Rebelbrowser ... 9.6 ...... 20.5 ..... -1.9 ..... 132 .... 101 ...... 9.0
Talkabout* ...... 9.6 ...... 16.3 ..... -1.5 ...... 96 ..... 110 .... --
Dasa29 ........... 9.5 ...... 17.0 ..... -4.0 ..... 115 .... 105 .... 12.5
cherryghost ..... 9.2 ...... 19.2 ..... -2.9 .... 160 .... 110 ..... 10.4
waterways ...... 9.1 ...... 22.3 ..... -2.3 ..... 140 .... 111 ...... 8.6
dbyrne ............ 9.0 ...... 17.0 ..... -3.2 .... 175 ..... 85 ..... 9.3
SeaFields ........ 8.9 ....... 20.4 .... -1.5 ..... 140 ..... 90 ....... 9.5
thetonynator ... 8.9 ...... 20.3 ..... -2.5 ..... 120 .... 105 ...... 8.4
jd .................. 8.5 ...... 18.8 ..... -1.9 ..... 130 ..... 105 ..... 9.3
kindredspirit ..... 8.5 ..... 19.3 ...... -2.0 .... 140 .... 110 ...... 8.8
Popoutman ...... 8.4 ...... 16.0 ..... -1.6 .... 120 ...... 94 ..... 11.0
DeepEasterly .... 8.3 ..... 18.3 ..... -2.1 ..... 217 ..... 103 ..... 9.9
Strasser .......... 8.2 ..... 20.8 ..... -3.4 ..... 108 ...... 97 ...... 9.4

Con Sensus ..... 8.1 ..... 19.1 ..... -2.8 ..... 130 ...... 102 ..... 9.4

Fionagus .......... 8.1 ..... 18.7 ..... -1.9 ..... 168 .... 113....... 7.4
patneve2 ......... 8.1 ..... 18.0 ..... -3.5 ..... 130 ....... 80 ..... 8.5
200motels ........ 8.1 ...... 17.8 ..... -2.9 .... 172 ....... 90 ...... 8.1
nilhg ............... 8.1 ...... 19.1 ..... -2.8 ..... 165 ...... 88 ...... 9.4
Su Campu ........ 8.1 ...... 21.2 ..... -3.1 ..... 110 ...... 95 ...... 9.4
redsunset ........ 8.0 ...... 19.0 ..... -1.5 ..... 125 ..... 110 .... 10.5
Hellboy99 ........ 8.0 ...... 18.5 ..... -3.0 ..... 142 ..... 112 .... 10.2
nacho libre ...... 7.9 ...... 18.7 ..... -2.5 ..... 135 ..... 115 ..... 9.3
DOCARCH ....... 7.9 ...... 19.2 ..... -2.3 ....... 95 ..... 110 ...... 9.4
Joe Public ....... 7.9 ...... 19.9 ..... -3.9 ....... 99 ..... 129 ...... 8.9
Jerry Seinfeld .. 7.8 ...... 19.9 ..... -3.3 ....... 90 ..... 120 ...... 8.2
pauldry ........... 7.6 ...... 21.1 ..... -1.1 ..... 108 ...... 95 ...... 9.6
Danno ............ 7.4 ...... 17.3 ..... -3.3 ..... 120 ...... 90 ....... 9.7
M.T. Cranium ... 7.4 ...... 18.8 ..... -4.3 ..... 125 ...... 88 ...... 7.2

** due to late entry, score will be reduced above 55 by up to 10 per cent.

waterways

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

The high was reported at 8.8 C for Mullingar on Sunday 4th.

Kindred Spirit hit that right on, and the two closest forecasts after that came from Joe Public and Waterways.

I think I share with pleasure the third place with Rebelbrowser (9.0).

Deep Easterly

April mean up to midnight last standing at 7.6c (not including Claremorris data on the 9th as not updated yet), which is close to normal for the first 10 days of the month.

Annual mean up to midnight last standing at 3.76c, which is 1.5c below the 61-90 norm for the period, but it has started to rise quite rapidly so perhaps a coming closer to normal over the next few weeks:



Still much cooler than this time last year as the graph shows.


Graph charting mean daily maxima for the 61-90 period at Dublin (Pheonix Park), Birr and Galway for the month of April:


(Galway data based on the 66-95 average)

Statistically, the opening days of April tend to cooler than the closing days of March, although an evident rise towards the end.


Data sources: Met Eireann KNMI

talkabout

Sorry I was late getting the entry in and thanks for letting it stand. I did omit No 6 as I felt it would be very unfair. Thanks Danno, M.T Cranium, Joe Public and thetonynator. I’ll be on time in May.

Joe Public

I expect Claremorris's high ( 20C ) and low ( -19.9C ) for yesterday will be sorted sometime today.

John mac

Joe Public wrote: »

I expect Claremorris's high ( 20C ) and low ( -19.9C ) for yesterday will be sorted sometime today.

Nope (not yet anyway)
we did have frost this morning, though dont think it was that cold.

Joe Public

John mac wrote: »

Nope (not yet anyway)
we did have frost this morning, though dont think it was that cold.

It's officially a new record so:rolleyes:

M.T. Cranium

I was going to update from the past seven days (8-14) but realizing it's a 30-day month, I will update later Friday using 1-15 cumulatives ... looks in any case like temps have risen further above normal and rainfall has plummeted since there has been none to speak of since the 7th. Sunshine has increased considerably. I won't guess the numbers just look for them to be updated later Friday.

As to Claremorris, perhaps DE got a load of snow from some local hill and laid it around the thermometer pad for a bit of fun. A foot of snow could radiate to about that temp on a cold clear night.

M.T. Cranium

UPDATE ...

With the first half of the month in the books, the mean temp is sitting fairly close to 8.0 C which would be about a degree above normal for this half but near the normal for the whole month and close to the consensus of our forecasts.

With no new rainfall that figure now stands at about 110% of normal which would equate to 55% of normal at the end of the month if it doesn't rain again, but if the second half were to register 70% then the finishing mark would be 90% (just to give a rough guide of what models are suggesting).

As to sunshine, that has shot up to almost 160% of normal with this very sunny past few days, and so that guarantees a finish above 100% if there were to be as little as 40% sunshine now to 30th. That's a figure that could verify too with several cloudy days in the near future, although I would estimate 70% to give about 115% for the end point. Still just rough estimates at this point.

It could be possible that a lower temperature will still be registered as I believe it has not been below -2 C yet in reality. I didn't write down the highest the other day but it was over 18 at Claremorris, I think.

Joe Public

These are the official max temps for last Sunday the 11th

ROI
Claremorris 19.6
Oak Park 19.3
Shannon Airport 19.2


NI
Castlederg 20.4
St Angelo 19.7
Portglenone 19.7

Deep Easterly

April combined mean of the 5 central Met Eireann stations standing at 8.2c up to midnight 17th. This is 0.5c above the 61-90 norm for the 17 day period.

Mean maxima for the 5 met stations for the month so far:



Warmest in the west of the area, and cooler the further east.



Annual mean value of the 5 stations standing at 4.10c, which is 1.3c below normal, but continued to close in over the last week. With a close to average temps forecast for the coming week, I expect that it is unlikely that we will get within the 0.5c-1.0c deviational value by this time next week.

However, we'll see.

Speak Now

-3.8 for Dublin yesterday looks like being the lowest for the month.

Speak Now

Had a quick look and it's more success for Joe Public.
Well done Joe, looking at your below average rain and above average sun forecasts as well i'd say we could have a record score this month. Well Played Sir

Joe Public

Thanks Jerry but it's not over yet, while I don't expect the low to get any lower the high is expected to get a lot higher next week and monthly average will raise too. It looks like we may be heading for a record low rainfall in April and the sun is doing very well.

Danno

Joe Public wrote: »

These are the official max temps for last Sunday the 11th

ROI
Claremorris 19.6
Oak Park 19.3
Shannon Airport 19.2


NI
Castlederg 20.4
St Angelo 19.7
Portglenone 19.7

Kilkenny got 20.7c - it is a climate station, not sypnotic though.

Deep Easterly

Joe Public wrote: »

It looks like we may be heading for a record low rainfall in April

I really doubt it. A lot of rain fell in the opening days of April. Enough to bring levels up to near average for the month at some stations.

Joe Public

Deep Easterly wrote: »

I really doubt it. A lot of rain fell in the opening days of April. Enough to bring levels up to near average for the month at some stations.

I suppose I should have checked it out first, April 2007 was a really dry and warm sunny month and April 2008 wasn't too bad either.

2007 Extreme values for April
Rainfall Highest total: 54.7mm at Belmullet
Lowest total: 5.4mm at Casement Aerodrome (its driest April since records began there in 1964)
Highest daily rainfall: 23.5mm at Belmullet on 25th (its highest daily value for April since records began there in 1956)
Temperature Highest mean monthly temperature: 11.6°C at Shannon Airport (its warmest April since records began there in 1945)
Lowest mean monthly temperature: 10.2°C at Knock Airport (its warmest April since records began there in 1997)
Highest temperature: 22.2°C at Shannon Airport on 28th
Lowest air temperature: -1.7°C at Casement Aerodrome on 4th
Lowest grass minimum temperature: -8.4°C at Birr on 5th
Sunshine Highest monthly total: 243 hours at Rosslare (its sunniest April since records began there in 1956)
Lowest monthly total: 190 hours at Malin Head (its sunniest April since 1981)
Highest daily sunshine: 14.1 hours at Belmullet on 26th (the joint highest daily value on record for April at any station)

Deep Easterly

Oh my god, like the monthly mean for April up to midnight 24th at a totally amazing 8.1c, which is like, sooooooooo above the normal for the period, by like, 0.3c. This totally with it graph, like so tells the story so far:






and and and and if that wasn't enough, the annual mean is currently, like, at a really low value still, something like 4.33c or something, which is like, soooooooooooooo below normal, and nowhere near what it was at this time last year:



I'm like, oh my Gaawwd :eek:



A quick look back on this week last year:



A fairly typical April week with temps around average with some rain or showers around at times. Bit like what the coming week is forecast to be more or less, but likely to be a tad warmer this time around.


Like What-ev-eer.


Data source: met eireann

Redsunset

Catherine Tate is that you???

your mean 4.33 needs to be green mate.

Yeah im picky this morning

Joe Public

Oh my gawd those graphs are like wicked.

pauldry

im so like :eek:

M.T. Cranium

Sorry to interrupt girls, but what's happening in the merry month of May that could give us a context for the bonus question? Any big events around mid-month? Thanks, I need to post the May questions tomorrow.