will we have a good summer?

snow ghost

irishh_bob wrote: »

i grew up on a farm and know plenty of farmers , never heard that one and besides , may 2009 was a terrible month , incredibly wet bar the final few days

Maybe it's a West Coast thing Bob, where do you live? There's even something about it in the Museum of Country Life.

May was fairly good here last year.

nacho libre

snow ghost wrote: »

Maybe it's a West Coast thing Bob, where do you live? There's even something about it in the Museum of Country Life.

May was fairly good here last year.

perhaps. i've often heard farmers around here say a good May meant a bad summer and vice versa.

snow ghost

nacho libre wrote: »

perhaps. i've often heard farmers around here say a good May meant a bad summer and vice versa.

Yeah Nacjo, I read something in the Museum of Country Life a while back in one of their exhibitions... there was an old rythme about making the hay along much the same lines.

Deep Easterly

nacho libre wrote: »

perhaps. i've often heard farmers around here say a good May meant a bad summer and vice versa.

Same here, and in fairness, last May as I recall was not that bad, nor was June, but went downhill during the 2nd part of July with non stop heavy rain.

May 2008 was supurb, a bit like now only warmer, and by God did we pay for it during the summer. :pac:

mike65

September is the only month you can rely on, the rest are like Alex Higgins.

nacho libre

Alex is in a bad way now. Who can forget his amazing clearance in the semi-final of the world snooker chamiopnship against Jimmy White all those years ago.

oops... this is the weather forum...:p

M.T. Cranium

I don't think I've posted in this forum but clearly the title is now somewhat in need of revision, perhaps to Will We Have Any Summer? (if the volcano keeps going) ...

But as to the original question, yes for sure, possibly 2023.

ch750536

Wow, MT, one of those 'I didn't recognise you with clothes on' moments that you have at staff parties when the uniforms are left at home.

Summer will be fine. My 5yr old just told me so.

M.T. Cranium

I want to work where you work.

Seriously though, if this volcano keeps going, summer cancelled.

KittyeeTrix

Summer '95, oh the memories.......all that sunbathing.........I have the sun damaged wrinkles as proof of how bloody hot it was:(
Wouldn't want it that hot or prolonged again but definitely would like some sort of bloody summer!!!
Please:D

Pangea

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

I want to work where you work.

Seriously though, if this volcano keeps going, summer cancelled.

How long do you think it would take for the volcano to have an effect on our summer weather? weeks?
What would be the implications , Colder? Cloudier?
Thanks

nacho libre

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

I want to work where you work.

Seriously though, if this volcano keeps going, summer cancelled.

say if it ceased activity in the next day or so, do you believe it would still have an affect on our weather a few months down the line or would it take longer than that to have an effect? would you expect us to have a colder winter, than otherwise we might have, in 2011/12.

Pangea

nacho libre wrote: »

say if it ceased activity in the next day or so, do you believe it would still have an affect on our weather a few months down the line or would it take longer than that to have an effect? would you expect us to have a colder winter, than otherwise we might have, in 2011/12.

Get in line , Im first :pac::pac:

M.T. Cranium

I think I posted some thoughts on cause and effect re volcanic dust veils and climate on the other thread a day or two back, but the long and short of it would be this ...

if this volcanic episode ends within a week, I don't think there will be much long-term climate effect. Climate effects are thought to occur in two steps, the first being just direct reduction of sunlight reaching the lower layers on a regional then eventually hemispheric basis, and that phase follows the volcanic activity about 3 to 12 months later (but can extend if the volcanic dust production extends).

A second phase, more speculative, is climate feedback. By this stage, the atmosphere has processed the dust veil and things are back to normal regarding insolation, but now the periods of colder than normal temperatures are feeding back through their own effects like reduced sea surface temps, increased regional snowfall (this is partly due to more nuclei in the atmosphere and partly due to the colder temps).

So in this second phase which can strike 3-5 years down the road, you see a spike in frequency of cold seasons in the same general area as the direct effects before. These two phases may merge in large scale events but can be separated by a rebound period.

In this case, I would say, if the Icelandic activity is significant for another month or longer, there's a good chance of the direct feedback of a colder than average summer possibly showing itself even in terms of reduced air mass temperatures (as was seen in 1992 after Pinatubo).

If the Icelandic events become major then this could be the beginning of several cool to cold years.

kakee

If the Icelandic events become major then this could be the beginning of several cool to cold years.

What do you mean when you say major M. T. ?

Danno

Major would mean Katla to errupt I think.

alanajane

Where is all the volcanic fuss gone?? Has the eruptions stopped or should I head to the conspiracy theory threads???

worded

worded wrote: »

I heard some birds were seen flying backwards in Mayo which is a sure sign of a good summer!

Seems I Was right

mike65

alanajane wrote: »

Where is all the volcanic fuss gone?? Has the eruptions stopped or should I head to the conspiracy theory threads???

The vind ist bloving in ze vrong direkshun. Or raver it ist bloving in ze right direkshun

drdeadlift

alanajane wrote: »

Where is all the volcanic fuss gone?? Has the eruptions stopped or should I head to the conspiracy theory threads???

http://eldgos.mila.is/eyjafjallajokull-fra-hvolsvelli/


This was a handy site to view the volcano in all its glory,there have been some tremers the last few weeks but little activity otherwise.
Most of the tremers were coming from the north of Iceland not so close to the volcano itself.