'this is Greece, not Ireland, we'll fight back'

Wibbs

snow ghost wrote: »

How could you do any of that - it's simply not economically or politically viable - Germany are at the heart of the crisis and would lose out finanically and politically, also it would put the Euro and EU in turmoil.

I disagree. It might be politically harsh, but it would show the eurozone protects the currency and will only support those in the zone that are financially responsible. This does not inclde Greece.

In theory Greece could pull out of the Euro to reduce their debt burden by then devaluing their currency.

Yep and a host of other advantages too.

There is no easy solution and the Euro and all of us in the monetary union are basically on the brink.

And we could go over the brink if we continue down the beige thinking route. If you run a chain of shops and the shíte hits the fan you sell off the ones that are dragging you down the most. You dont continue to bail them out. It sends a bad signal. To outsiders and some of the other shops on the edge.

The crisis in Greece is EU wide one and the causes of it are not just Greek fiscal malpractice - there are many other players involved and responsible.

No I beg to differ. yes there are and were stupid calls, but greece is the sick man of europe. Others including spain and portugal are trying to balance the books, italy isnt and IMHO may be the next to fall into trouble. Harsh action now would save the rest. I cant see it happening TBH. Too decisive for the EU, which is a civil service, inside a civil service wrapped up in bureaucratic thinking.

cynder

When the s**t hists the fan for ireland:mad: I have an escape route.... im leaving the country!

oppenheimer1

snow ghost wrote: »

How could you do any of that - it's simply not economically or politically viable - Germany are at the heart of the crisis and would lose out finanically and politically, also it would put the Euro and EU in turmoil.

In theory Greece could pull out of the Euro to reduce their debt burden by then devaluing their currency.

There is no easy solution and the Euro and all of us in the monetary union are basically on the brink.

The crisis in Greece is EU wide one and the causes of it are not just Greek fiscal malpractice - there are many other players involved and responsible.

They can't reduce their debt burden by pulling out of the euro because all their debt is denominated in euro. What would have to happen for that to be a viable mechanism would be that all countries decide to revert to their own currency and have the euro no more. The currency would fail to exist and all debts be transferred to the new currency.

Politically it would be a disaster for the EU and could herald itd dissolution.

snow ghost

Wibbs wrote: »

I disagree. It might be politically harsh, but it would show the eurozone protects the currency and will only support those in the zone that are financially responsible. This does not inclde Greece.

Yep and a host of other advantages too.

And we could go over the brink if we continue down the beige thinking route. If you run a chain of shops and the shíte hits the fan you sell off the ones that are dragging you down the most. You dont continue to bail them out. It sends a bad signal. To outsiders and some of the other shops on the edge.

No I beg to differ. yes there are and were stupid calls, but greece is the sick man of europe. Others including spain and portugal are trying to balance the books, italy isnt and IMHO may be the next to fall into trouble. Harsh action now would save the rest. I cant see it happening TBH. Too decisive for the EU, which is a civil service, inside a civil service wrapped up in bureaucratic thinking.

Interesting points wibbs - I think you hit the nail on the head about it being too devisive for Europe and as such it wont happen. It would call into question the whole concept of European Economic Union and send the markets into turmoil. Politically Germany and France's dream of a United States of Europe would be over.

Italy falling next would be a major crisis - given the size of their economy - and not just for the EU.

danbohan

grindelwald wrote: »

When the s**t hists the fan for ireland:mad: I have an escape route.... im leaving the country!

why you waiting till the s...t hits the fan ? everything leaving the place will be full then

lisbon_lions

whilst you make some compelling arguments, Wibbs, I don't think the franchise analogy to this macroeconomic situation with Greece holds up. There is much much more to it than a franchise gone bad. When you think about predators[speculators] that are circling for a piece of the action and the willingness of Germany/France to uphold the euro to suit their own ends, there are more ingredients to this than a big mac meal...
I dont claim to know much about this tbh. But i enjoyed your post on the last page. Recent article in the economist goes into this and an argument given at the end as to why we are not in the same boat [apparently]:

http://www.economist.com/blogs/charlemagne/2010/04/euro_crisis

snow ghost

oppenheimer1 wrote: »

They can't reduce their debt burden by pulling out of the euro because all their debt is denominated in euro. What would have to happen for that to be a viable mechanism would be that all countries decide to revert to their own currency and have the euro no more. The currency would fail to exist and all debts be transferred to the new currency.

Politically it would be a disaster for the EU and could herald itd dissolution.

You're correct, they'd have to default, leave the Euro and then devalue their currency to encourage exports, tourism, etc which in a sense would reduce their debt burden, or at least their ability to pay it at some point through increased revenues. Defaulting would be the easiest way for them to reduce it.

Agree about the political connotations for Europe.

K-9

snow ghost wrote: »

You're correct, they'd have to default, leave the Euro and then devalue their currency to encourage exports, tourism, etc which in a sense would reduce their debt burden, or at least their ability to pay it at some point through increased revenues. Defaulting would be the easiest way for them to reduce it.

Agree about the political connotations for Europe.

Depends, they'd have to a trade deal with the EU which may involve tariffs. If the EU is their major market, as with us, it would cause problems. Plus the debt that they owe to EU countries would get more expensive if their currency is weaker. Seeing as their main income is Tourism, it may work and is different to us in that respect. I'd read something like 50% of its GDP is Government related, if that is true, it would cause problems, though I suppose, it already is a problem.

cynder

danbohan wrote: »

why you waiting till the s...t hits the fan ? everything leaving the place will be full then

Because i was born here and love the town i live in, have friends here and have a house here, my 3 kids also are happy here.

If Ireland ends up like Greece my husband will get a transfer to a country outside Europe and we will start again from scratch. Probably will rent out the house or sell it because when we leave we wont be coming back.

snow ghost

K-9 wrote: »

Depends, they'd have to a trade deal with the EU which may involve tariffs. If the EU is their major market, as with us, it would cause problems. Plus the debt that they owe to EU countries would get more expensive if their currency is weaker. Seeing as their main income is Tourism, it may work and is different to us in that respect. I'd read something like 50% of its GDP is Government related, if that is true, it would cause problems, though I suppose, it already is a problem.

Once in control of their currency they could take measures to purposefully increase its value. The UK plays this game with Sterling.

That said I don't think them leaving the euro will happen anytime soon K-9, too much at stake for the rest of the EU.

Plus the logistics of them reverting back to their own currency would be immense and couldn't be done over night.

snow ghost

grindelwald wrote: »

Because i was born here and love the town i live in, have friends here and have a house here, my 3 kids also are happy here.

If Ireland ends up like Greece my husband will get a transfer to a country outside Europe and we will start again from scratch. Probably will rent out the house or sell it because when we leave we wont be coming back.

Unfortunately this crisis has the ability to spread outside Europe - if the EU as a whole or Italy gets into serious bother the repurcussions could be global.

TBH honest nowhere is totally safe from the economic implications, even though some may seem more secure at present.

fontanalis

snow ghost wrote: »

To an extent - primarily because they have dug a hole for themselves and now can't see how to climb out of it, Germany in particular as they were leading the field and essentially monetary union and the EU is theirs and France's little baby.

They've screwed up majorly and are now trying to abdicate responsibility by blaming it all on Greece - it takes two to tango. Greece couldn't have got themselves in their current situation if Germany et al weren't there to irresponsibly lend them the billions that they misused. They were blinded by avarice, just as our banks were here.

Didn't Greece fraudulently mis-state their financial position, without Germanys help?

snow ghost

fontanalis wrote: »

Didn't Greece fraudulently mis-state their financial position, without Germanys help?

They did fontanalis, the point I'm making is that isn't the whole picture - there was a culture of irresponsible lending in the industrialised world that has caused this crisis... greed over took common sense and banking with integrity.

In the same way that banks in the US gave mortgages to the unemployed with little care for them to be able to make repayments (as they'd sell the bad debts on), the German financiers threw money at Greece - it was a bit like lavishing money on a gambling addict and complaining when the gambler frittered all the money away and then couldn't look after themselves or pay it back with interest.

What's happening in Greece is intrinsically linked to Greece's own irresponsible behaviour as well as to the dodgy practices of the rest of the capatalist world's financiers (notably German)... who were dishing out money like drug dealers dish out a few freebies of heroin in the greedy hope when someone is hooked they will make easy returns.

K-9

snow ghost wrote: »

Once in control of their currency they could take measures to purposefully increase its value. The UK plays this game with Sterling.

That said I don't think them leaving the euro will happen anytime soon K-9, too much at stake for the rest of the EU.

Plus the logistics of them reverting back to their own currency would be immense and couldn't be done over night.

The problem is, why would you devalue and then relatively quickly increase its value. It would ruin the competitiveness gained. That's of course if the speculators haven't ruined them by then! Anyway, I can't see this happening any time soon but debt restructuring is something the EU may have to consider in the next couple of years. The level of debt, not just in the PIIGS, is getting over whelming for many countries, even the US may be at risk if they keep going the way they are going.

donfers

this is annoying the ****e out of me, they've already killed three innocent bank workers and still the union bosses are happy for them to "rebel". Imagine the outcry here if a union protest led to innocent people being killed. Obviously the so-called home of civilisation is about as civilised as a knacker wedding.

On top of that, while they protest away the value of the euro is dropping and dropping and I intend travelling soon so cut it out you slimy bas'astards.

reprazant

Why are the Germans getting a lashing in this thread?

They are not the only ones who have been lending money. Both France and the UK have also been very generous with their loans. The vast majority of Portugal's debt is to Spain, so if Portugal go next then Spain is really in trouble.

Yet, for some reason, you blame Germany for all of this.

horse7

what are the facts on greece,can they retire at53,is it true they dont know how many civil servants they employ,any more facts or is thie just speculation.

K-9

I read to today that BNP Paribas have a €5 Billion exposure to Greece, so definitely not just the Germans.

ejmaztec

reprazant wrote: »

Why are the Germans getting a lashing in this thread?

They are not the only ones who have been lending money. Both France and the UK have also been very generous with their loans. The vast majority of Portugal's debt is to Spain, so if Portugal go next then Spain is really in trouble.

Yet, for some reason, you blame German for all of this.

I think that only one poster seems to want to unjustly lay the blame on Germany for some strange reason, but I think that Germany has every right to go for the throat over this fiasco.

The EU needs a rapid-reaction anti-fraud army to go to Greece and kick some ass.

snow ghost

reprazant wrote: »

Why are the Germans getting a lashing in this thread?

They are not the only ones who have been lending money. Both France and the UK have also been very generous with their loans. The vast majority of Portugal's debt is to Spain, so if Portugal go next then Spain is really in trouble.

Yet, for some reason, you blame Germany for all of this.

You're correct in that this practise was wide spread - that said in the case of Greece Germany was the main lender and also the main force behind European Economic Union.

But it's not just Germany... at fault is the financial and political establishment in most of the industrialised world.

And the ordinary people on the street - including here in Ireland - are the ones made to suffer and shoulder the burden.

Blobby George

ejmaztec wrote: »

The EU needs a rapid-reaction anti-fraud army to go to Greece and kick some ass.

And inflame an already hostile situation? Good lad.

ejmaztec

Blobby George wrote: »

And inflame an already hostile situation? Good lad.

Thanks for the encouragement, you will be well rewarded.:P

goat2

ScienceNerd wrote: »

Correct me if I'm wrong, but isn't Greece a lot more ****ed than we are. So they've let it get to this stage and haven't done anything. So nyah.

if greece sees us in this way
well be shure that is how the rest of europe see us
were banjaxed

Latchy

First the fall of Rome now Greece . How tragic

Guy:Incognito

Wibbs wrote: »

IMHO the Germans/EU should simply stop lending them money in the current fashion. Bear with me... Expel them from the euro. Continue to support real change. If they get their house in order bring them back in.

I would treat the euro like a franchise. If you want to open a Maccy Dees you have to follow procedures and have a valid market. If your burger sales go down, yet you lie on the sale figures and that has a economic knock on effect on head office, then remove the franchise. Let them be Stavros' burger place for a while until they show they can balance the books and not lie about it. Keep supplying them with buns and burger meat at a lower price and when they're back on their feet, stick the golden arches back up.

This would force them to look after their own currency. Their currency would be less valuable than the euro so exports would go up, it would be a major boost for their tourist economy too and it would protect the confidence in the euro. It would force them to completely rejig their tax and public expenditure. If they didnt then they would be utterly screwed.

If this or similar isnt done, then places like Italy, Spain and Portugal will follow suit, sure in the knowledge that "head office" will sub them when the shíte hits the fan. Italy is in trouble. Mad levels of borrowing, with Spain and Portugal not too far behind. Make an example of Greece to head that off. A good example BTW. Support but not tacit agreement and rewarding bad behaviour.

Ireland is balancing the books. For all the issues with NAMA etc we're showing real signs of climbing out of the crap we found ourselves in.

How much would swtching currencies back and forward cost?

Wibbs

Stekelly wrote: »

How much would swtching currencies back and forward cost?

Cheaper than a bailout and longterm send a better signal to countries who want to remain in the euroclub that they have to get their house in order. And of course that the regulators have to step in far more quickly than they have as far as throwing good money after bad.

ejmaztec

Latchy wrote: »

First the fall of Rome now Greece . How tragic

Sh1t happens Athens.:(

Latchy

ejmaztec wrote: »

Sh1t happens Athens.:(

I'm a peeing , European , we all's a peeing

* faceplam *

baaaa

Wibbs wrote: »

Cheaper than a bailout and longterm send a better signal to countries who want to remain in the euroclub that they have to get their house in order. And of course that the regulators have to step in far more quickly than they have as far as throwing good money after bad.

Eh this has nothing got to do with houses and order.
This is all about the deliberate manipulation of the markets,regulators are neither here nor there when most of western europes economies are simply uneconomic due to soverign debt.

ejmaztec

Latchy wrote: »

I'm a peeing , European , we all's a peeing

* faceplam *

Bollocks Great:P