House Prices

Fighting Irish

I know a few people trying to sell their houses who say stuff like "I can't take €250k for it, sure i paid €350K for it two years ago, i'll just wait a few years until prices rise again/go back to normal"


lol are people really this dumb?

tenchi-fan

Fighting Irish wrote: »

I know a few people trying to sell their houses who say stuff like "I can't take €250k for it, sure i paid €350K for it two years ago, i'll just wait a few years until prices rise again/go back to normal"


lol are people really this dumb?

yes, yes they are!

When the market bottoms out they might be lucky to be offered €180k. And THEN they will start to see the price rising maybe 4-5% a year. In 15 years it might be worth what they paid for it.

DublinWriter

In the long term, the old adage is true that you never lose money with bricks and mortar.

The CSO have predicted a massive increase in population in Dublin from about 2016 onwards, eventually forecasting a population of 2 million by 2020.

That will be the one and only driver that will push house prices up in the long term.

In the short term, the banks aren't lending, end of story. Consumer confidence is slowly rising despite the economy being in the sink.

I personally think that the low water mark of the property slump will be when the average semi-detached costs roughly three times the average industrial wage.

helimachoptor

DublinWriter wrote: »

In the long term, the old adage is true that you never lose money with bricks and mortar.

The CSO have predicted a massive increase in population in Dublin from about 2016 onwards, eventually forecasting a population of 2 million by 2020.

That will be the one and only driver that will push house prices up in the long term.

In the short term, the banks aren't lending, end of story. Consumer confidence is slowly rising despite the economy being in the sink.

I personally think that the low water mark of the property slump will be when the average semi-detached costs roughly three times the average industrial wage.

Agreed, eventually house prices will be rebound but as you say it wont be probably for 10-20 years, however I do feel sorry for people in apartments in 10-20 years most apartment blocks built in the last 10 years will be falling apart.

tenchi-fan

helimachoptor wrote: »

Agreed, eventually house prices will be rebound but as you say it wont be probably for 10-20 years, however I do feel sorry for people in apartments in 10-20 years most apartment blocks built in the last 10 years will be falling apart.

it's an awful thought isn't it?

Imagine people with 2 kids living in a one bedroom apartment?
And apartments all around them dilapidated and vacant or being rented out by junkies.....

helimachoptor

tenchi-fan wrote: »

it's an awful thought isn't it?

Imagine people with 2 kids living in a one bedroom apartment?
And apartments all around them dilapidated and vacant or being rented out by junkies.....

Yes it really really is, 2 of my friends bought apartments, one bought in 2005 and sold at the peak in early 2007 and made a tidy profit. It was a one bed shoebox that him and his GF were in and they sold it to an elderly lady who was downsizing.

The other one bought about 18 months ago on the shared ownership scheme, his partner who has a child is living with them in a 2 bed apartment in a very nice complex in a very nice area of south dub. However if they have a child together it's going to get real cramped real fast... and also they complex may not stay as aesthetically pleasing as it is now.


For the people who bought houses at least they can stay there long term and normally have 1/2 spare rooms. People in apartments generally don't. Also as each year passes residents in complexes I believe will need to pay more and more into the sinking fund and into the fees as the conditions that they live in get worse and worse, eventually you'll get apartment buildings resembling 1960's Soviet apartment blocks.

DublinWriter

tenchi-fan wrote: »

it's an awful thought isn't it?

Imagine people with 2 kids living in a one bedroom apartment?
And apartments all around them dilapidated and vacant or being rented out by junkies.....

Ironic that just as the 'social-experiment' known as the Ballymun Towers was deemed a failure and all seven blocks of were flats pulled down, that we will probably be facing several-dozen Ballymun type problems in the not-too-distant future.

One commentator on RTE Radio last week outlined the scary scenario that percentage drop in value of these developments might even exceed 100% - meaning that the developers will soon be paying money to people to take these properties off their hands.

Fighting Irish

tenchi-fan wrote: »

it's an awful thought isn't it?

Imagine people with 2 kids living in a one bedroom apartment?
And apartments all around them dilapidated and vacant or being rented out by junkies.....

It's nobodies fault but their own

who_ru

in fairness these apts were never ever designed to offer a genuine alternative to 3 bed semi d living unlike what you find in mainland europe. all of the apts built here in the last 10 years wer built purely for profit, built with abysmal sound insulation, and most of all were bought by investors who never intended living in them in the first place. already many look shabby as has been mentioned, i think it's a pity as it is a lost opportunity to make apt living a viable option in this country. we are unlikely to ever again have the resources available to build on this scale again.

In many cases developers built to the bear minimum standards, as required by law, so it is the authorities here, the so called professionals, who deemed it adequate and desirable to have paper thin walls in apt blocks, to have timber finishes on the outside that now look awful and only discourage any propect of apt owning and living. we can't afford to keep living in mass sprawling housing estates. look at the folks that moved to cavan etc over the last 10 years and have to commute to dublin every day. is that what we want?

it's a crying shame it really is, we had a brillant opportunity to creat really good communites living in apt blocks here over the last 10 years and we threw it all away in the name of profit.

Amhran Nua

DublinWriter wrote: »

In the long term, the old adage is true that you never lose money with bricks and mortar.

Whoever wrote that old adage had no idea what they were talking about.

DublinWriter wrote: »

The CSO have predicted a massive increase in population in Dublin from about 2016 onwards, eventually forecasting a population of 2 million by 2020.

Why?

Firetrap

Until people have the money to pay for them and the banks are willing to lend this money, prices aren't going to rise any time soon. By the time someone needed a 40 year mortgage term in order to put a roof over their head and was loaned out 7 or 8 times their salary it was pushing things about as far out as they could go

Treehouse72

DublinWriter wrote: »

The CSO have predicted a massive increase in population in Dublin from about 2016 onwards, eventually forecasting a population of 2 million by 2020.

I believe this is incorrect.

This projection comes from a December 2008 CSO paper. It is a projection based on the highest possible levels of immigration - levels we are unlikely to see again for decades, if ever.

Rather, the Times reported on the more likely scenario the CSO set out in the same paper:

The CSO Regional Population Projections for 2011-2026 predict the population of Dublin will fall by 100,000 if there is zero net immigration, that is if immigrants stop arriving or if there is equal balance between emigration and immigration.

http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/ireland/2008/1205/1228337450253.html

That sounds a lot more like it to me.

tenchi-fan

Fighting Irish wrote: »

It's nobodies fault but their own

Hmm I disagree.

In 2006 I was desperate to get on the "property ladder" because I saw house prices racing upwards since I was about 15 years old & just assumed they would go higher. They never taught about bubbles, booms and busts in school and obviously the government knew little of them either.

In the end I decided I just couldn't justify the expense of the mortgage as a percentage of my salary. But a lot of people (esp late 20's / early 30s) saw it as their last chance to get a property so they got a 35 year mortgage and now they're trapped in a small "starter home".

Last month a nearby restaurant let a room to the council to give out keys of council houses. Single unemployed divorcees, 18 year old single mothers, foreigners and people who never worked a day in their life were being handed millions of euro worth of property they didn't earn while hard working couples are paying a huge amount of tax and ridiculous mortgages to live in substandard accommodation.

I'm all for capitalism but incentives to encourage the development of a property bubble just meant the rich got richer while the middle class are now breaking their backs to give a nice lifestyle to the poor and giving the rich a safety net to break their fall... what a terrible system and its all the government's fault.

gurramok

DublinWriter, its a case of history repeating itself. Back in the mid 80's, Dublin had a reported population of 1 millions inhabitants. They had a projection back then of 1.5m inhabitants by the years 2000.
Of course that did not happen as economics overtook as emigration took its toll. History repeating itself.

DublinWriter

gurramok wrote: »

DublinWriter, its a case of history repeating itself. Back in the mid 80's, Dublin had a reported population of 1 millions inhabitants. They had a projection back then of 1.5m inhabitants by the years 2000.
Of course that did not happen as economics overtook as emigration took its toll. History repeating itself.

By 'they' do you mean the CSO?

From the mid to late 80's there was a drop off in the birth rate.

We are currently in the midst of a baby-boom.

http://www.cso.ie/statistics/bthsdthsmarriages.htm

ricman

I think we,ll be in a recession 4 another 5 years,prices will continue to drop.

Fighting Irish

tenchi-fan wrote: »

Hmm I disagree.

In 2006 I was desperate to get on the "property ladder" because I saw house prices racing upwards since I was about 15 years old & just assumed they would go higher. They never taught about bubbles, booms and busts in school and obviously the government knew little of them either.

In the end I decided I just couldn't justify the expense of the mortgage as a percentage of my salary. But a lot of people (esp late 20's / early 30s) saw it as their last chance to get a property so they got a 35 year mortgage and now they're trapped in a small "starter home".

Last month a nearby restaurant let a room to the council to give out keys of council houses. Single unemployed divorcees, 18 year old single mothers, foreigners and people who never worked a day in their life were being handed millions of euro worth of property they didn't earn while hard working couples are paying a huge amount of tax and ridiculous mortgages to live in substandard accommodation.

I'm all for capitalism but incentives to encourage the development of a property bubble just meant the rich got richer while the middle class are now breaking their backs to give a nice lifestyle to the poor and giving the rich a safety net to break their fall... what a terrible system and its all the government's fault.

Ok it's my fault

ocokev

DublinWriter wrote: »

The CSO have predicted a massive increase in population in Dublin from about 2016 onwards, eventually forecasting a population of 2 million by 2020.

I should think that fantastic idea of decentralisation in the public sector will put an end to that figure of 2 million.

gurramok

DublinWriter wrote: »

We are currently in the midst of a baby-boom.

http://www.cso.ie/statistics/bthsdthsmarriages.htm

Its very good having lots of kids, will there be a future for them when they reach 18?
Alot of the 80's generation as we know emigrated. So anyone's projections on the future should be taken with a pinch of salt.

Max Power1

IMO house prices havent bottomed out yet, let alone stablised. Only at that point can we even consider a rise

ocokev

Max Power1 wrote: »

IMO house prices havent bottomed out yet, let alone stablised. Only at that point can we even consider a rise

Did you not hear....Lenihan says house prices now at bottom
http://www.independent.ie/national-news/lenihan-says-house-prices-now-at-bottom-2124724.html

Max Power1

ocokev wrote: »

Did you not hear....Lenihan says house prices now at bottom
http://www.independent.ie/national-news/lenihan-says-house-prices-now-at-bottom-2124724.html

wouldnt trust him (or any FF member for that matter) as far as i could throw him