The Iceland Volcano Thread

It's been cloudy here most of the day, but about an hour ago it cleared up enough to see the moon. The moon was bright and white so there appears to be no ash over this part of the world right now.

Su Campu

Deep Easterly wrote: »

Icelandic met office one of the best in Europe imo. Like their Norwegian counterparts, they have a free policy of quality data. Despite their isolation and severe financial strain, there is obvious effort being pumped into scientific meteorological services as well as others. Puts our own met office to shame. Not that I blame them. What it does reflect is just what a tight arsed government and rulership we really have.

For example, look at the freely available data they have in their Aviation section. I got slated by Met Eireann for posting their equivalent charts on here from their (free) subscription service. The UKMO is also a subscription. I don't see why these charts should be witheld from the public, if someone knows how to read them they should be allowed to. We do pay for them in taxes, afterall.

maquiladora

British Airways chief Willie Walsh was on the BA 747 test flight this evening. :rolleyes:

M.T. Cranium

No, I didn't imagine that the volcano was set off but it just happened to provide a very convenient and plausible reason for all those world leaders to avoid a tricky situation. For example, several days ago it was mentioned on Netweather that the Canadian government's challenger jet for the head of state was reportedly flying into Heathrow and was about the only aircraft in the air space at that point in time. I guess what I meant was, it seems rather odd that the public are now being prepped to expect a change in the flight restriction regime even though the volcanic ash clouds are not likely to decrease for many more days.

You can tell there is something more behind this change of heart in terms of going to attend the funeral in Poland, because Angela Merkel cancelled out and she could almost walk to Cracow.

But really, how difficult would it have been to fly these leaders to Budapest or Vienna and take them on by ground travel? I came to the conclusion they wanted to avoid some risky or nasty situation (like having to make small talk with each other, probably).

But we'll see, as the economic pressure mounts the airlines may try some freight runs and short-duration flights or try opening up the edges of the no-fly zones, and play things by ear.

Rougies

maquiladora wrote: »

British Airways chief Willie Walsh was on the BA 747 test flight this evening. :rolleyes:

What am I missing here?

rebel girl 15

Tristram wrote: »

Am I correct in saying that all the test flights by carriers so far have occurred at relatively low altitudes? If so, what flights would possibly be given the green light to go ahead?

Think it the flight I was watching this morning was between 5-20 thousand feet, I agree with the other posters saying that it is too dangerous. There was a link to an article regarding the Finnish testing which showed pictures of F18's that flew through the ash, with quite a bit of damage. 99 planes may go up and com down safely, but the 100th one might not - I know there is disruption, but its better to be safe than sorry

Wasn't that BA CEO with Aer Lingus a year ago??

lucernarian

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

No, I didn't imagine that the volcano was set off but it just happened to provide a very convenient and plausible reason for all those world leaders to avoid a tricky situation. For example, several days ago it was mentioned on Netweather that the Canadian government's challenger jet for the head of state was reportedly flying into Heathrow and was about the only aircraft in the air space at that point in time. I guess what I meant was, it seems rather odd that the public are now being prepped to expect a change in the flight restriction regime even though the volcanic ash clouds are not likely to decrease for many more days.

You can tell there is something more behind this change of heart in terms of going to attend the funeral in Poland, because Angela Merkel cancelled out and she could almost walk to Cracow.

But really, how difficult would it have been to fly these leaders to Budapest or Vienna and take them on by ground travel? I came to the conclusion they wanted to avoid some risky or nasty situation (like having to make small talk with each other, probably).

But we'll see, as the economic pressure mounts the airlines may try some freight runs and short-duration flights or try opening up the edges of the no-fly zones, and play things by ear.

I take it you haven't heard of Angela Merkel attempts to travel back to Berlin from Los Angeles over the last couple of days?

http://www.earthtimes.org/articles/show/319327,news-merkels-60-hour-epic-journey-home--feature.html (I have never heard of earthtimes.org but I read the story somewhere else and I had to google it again.)

In volcano news, seismic activity has been rather heightened over much of today and has increased further in the last half hour or so but all the same, no predictions can really be made on the back of just that. Are there any webcams operating at the moment which might show what's going on?

Figuramatyi

http://hraun.vedur.is/ja/Katla2009/stodvaplott.html

It is going mental atm!!

To the conspiracy guy: Austrian/Hungarian air space is closed since Friday. The last open countries are Greece/South of Spain/South of Italy etc, all at least 48 hrs land travel away from Krakow. I know Europe is far from Canada, but trust as: even Merkel had no chance to get to Poland by time. Don't even mention Obama. You're pretty paranoid this time.

nacho libre

Rougies wrote: »

What am I missing here?

he is showing leadership.... in other words if it's safe for him to fly it's safe for everyone else:rolleyes:

IvySlayer

I really wish the Katla webcam was working.

Deep Easterly

nacho libre wrote: »

he is showing leadership.... in other words if it's safe for him to fly it safe for everyone else:rolleyes:

And of course, should the worse happen (God forbid), this guy will be completely blameless.

ShoulderChip

very aviator-like

Deep Easterly

Just looking at the latest sat animation, was that plunge of high cloud suddenly shooting down from Iceland towards Ireland forecast?




If it does reach Ireland, I wonder would there be some dust incorporated within it?

Sponge Bob

Carole Coleman, what time was she on and on what station ???

bcmf

Is Karen Coleman on Newstalk. Surely she didnt really say that....I mean not her .

Su Campu

Deep Easterly wrote: »

Just looking at the latest sat animation, was that plunge of high cloud suddenly shooting down from Iceland towards Ireland forecast?




If it does reach Ireland, I wonder would there be some dust incorporated within it?

It's at around 30,000ft and is associated with a small jet streak as per the GFS below. As today's plume isn't reaching above 10,000ft I'd say there's no real chance of it being incorporated in the cloud.

M.Pool

Karen Coleman interview being repeated on Newstalk 106 NOW!

brian ireland

Did I miss her comments yet 23.45?

Oscar Bravo

For those watchn the tv,Newstalk is sky 0210.

M.Pool

a very short segment. I took the tone as pretty tongue in cheek.

brian ireland

M.Pool wrote: »

a very short segment. I took the tone as pretty tongue in cheek.

Is it over?

Rougies

M.Pool wrote: »

a very short segment. I took the tone as pretty tongue in cheek.

Yes it was, she obviously didn't have a clue what questions to ask so resorted to tongue in cheek economical/financial questions and pathetic attempts at humorous ones.

Simply just a waste of an interview. Not even worth listening to.

vrhunski

looks like something is wrong with graph
http://hraun.vedur.is/ja/Katla2009/stodvaplott.html

yellowlabrador

http://freeinternetpress.com/story.php?sid=25398#top

this is an interesting read, translated from der spiegel

All that could change if Eyjafjallajokull awakens its larger brothers. The Katla volcano, barely 25 kilometers to the east, has enormously higher explosive power. It also has a rather nasty habit of erupting shortly after Eyjafjallajokull. The last major eruption of Eyjafjallajokull lasted for two years, ending in 1823 when Katla erupted like a massive cannon.

Fire-Spewing Giant

So far, Katla hasn't reacted - GPS stations haven't registered any movements in its slopes. But there's still another fire-spewing giant in the area - Heckla. "That volcano erupts, with a regularity that astonishes geologists, every 10 years," said Thomas Walter of the German Research Center for Geosciences (GFZ) in Potsdam. "It is long overdue."

Such chain reactions are not uncommon for volcanic mountain ranges, especially in Iceland. "If one volcano erupts next to a neighboring one where pressure has also built up, then it can give it the decisive kick," said Walter; but he won't venture to predict when the next volcano will erupt./QUOTE]

maquiladora

vrhunski wrote: »

looks like something is wrong with graph
http://hraun.vedur.is/ja/Katla2009/stodvaplott.html

*Cue Roland Emmerich style scene with nerdy, bored scientist at remote outpost sipping coffee when an alarm goes off on his computer screen..."What the hell?! Oh my God..." *

vrhunski

just look time of last update of that graph

pebbles21

Looks like the end is near now!!
http://news.xinhuanet.com/english2010/world/2010-04/19/c_13257311.htm

billy the squid

0000Z advisory map

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/aviation/vaac/data/VAG_1271634757.png

woolymammoth

http://en.vedur.is/about-imo/news/2010/nr/1881

Iceland Met office say they're not detecting the plume. Is this it finishing up?

Tristram

KLM Royal Dutch Airlines operated two commercial flights to the Far East on Sunday evening. There were no passengers on board these flights, which both carried cargo and the regular crew complement. The flights bound for Sharjah and Bangkok/Taipei were respectively operated by a Boeing 747 full freighter and a Boeing 747 combi. The Dutch aviation authorities granted KLM permission to operate these flights. Earlier on Sunday, KLM successfully operated nine test flights. None of these flights encountered any problems. According to KLM President & CEO Peter Hartman it is completely safe to operate flights during hours of daylight.

All Intercontinental flights scheduled to arrive into Amsterdam Airport Schiphol on Monday April 19th are decided on a case by case basis, latest 4 hours prior to departure.

Progress of a sort? I'm going to remain optimistic.

Su Campu

There's not much happening up there this morning....:)

Graces7

Confab wrote: »

That's a very blinkered view. This is not just about tourism. What about DHL, Fed Ex, UPC? They import and export billions of euro worth of products each year for our economy. Every day lost is a huge burden on them and the country in general. A high percentage of their imports are critical to our economy, such as industrial and medical equipment, pharmaceuticals, factory supplies, electronics etc.

Bottom line, we can't do without air travel for long.

Will you PLEASE stop accusing me of being "myopic" and "blinkered" and read what I am really saying?

We may have NO CHOICE; and all the ranting and raving and wringing of hands is then to no avail.

Nothing we can do.

So why spend a lot of energy and emotion on this; rather find ways to adapt.

I am sure that there are astute business men out there working ways to cash in on any crisis.

As I have said before, adaptation means survival. Refusing to work at adapting means extinction.

And please; we have many abandoned babies in our care... we will suffer if there is no air travel and babies will die. ALso much of our income from Ireland in in tourism.

But we are working on alternative supply lines etc, and alternative ways to earn the means to feed our wee ones.

And we will find that.

The hysteria here is amazing, really. it is little compared with St Helena

So please, read what is really in my posts! THANK YOU.

Jumpy

Su Campu wrote: »

There's not much happening up there this morning....:)

If anyone is interested in seeing where this webcam is situated, I have a picture of it below.

maquiladora

Still erupting but the plume looks a lot lower and smaller than the last few days:

http://eldgos.mila.is/eyjafjallajokull-fra-thorolfsfelli/

peasant

Graces7 wrote: »

We may have NO CHOICE; and all the ranting and raving and wringing of hands is then to no avail.

Nothing we can do.

That's what some computer models tell us. Planes that actually have flown through the ash cloud tell a different story.

As always, the truth lies somewhere in the middle. Just so far there are no agreed ways to find the truth. The whole airspace closure is based on a theoretical model and not on facts and risk assessment.

That has to change.

peasant

peasant wrote: »

That's what some computer models tell us. Planes that actually have flown through the ash cloud tell a different story.

As always, the truth lies somewhere in the middle. Just so far there are no agreed ways to find the truth. The whole airspace closure is based on a theoretical model and not on facts and risk assessment.

That has to change.

Actually test flights through British and Irish air space have concluded that currently it is very dangerous over us.
The ash elsewhere over Europe is dispersing nicely but we are still in a northerly bringing more of it down.

Webmonkey

Least there are signs showing a change. Hopefully Thursday flights will go now so I can get home

peasant

Deleted User wrote: »

Actually test flights through British and Irish air space have concluded that currently it is very dangerous over us.

Would you have a source for that?

maquiladora

BBC News :

0934 The Press Association reports that thousands of UK airline workers could soon be laid off as a result of the crisis.

alibabba

Profit before People, the usual argument.

RTE News:

Airlines dissatisfied with ash response: IATA
Monday, 19 April 2010 09:05
The world's airlines are 'dissatisfied' with the way governments are responding to the volcanic ash cloud over Europe, the head of the International Air Transport Association said today.

In recent days several European airlines have successfully staged test flights through parts of the ash cloud blowing south from Iceland, leading some to question whether the current flight bans are necessary.

The IATA estimated yesterday that the biggest air traffic disruption since World War Two is costing the industry at least €150m a day in lost revenues in Europe alone.

AdvertisementThe Irish Exporters' Association has said that €95m worth of exports were being held up every day by the continuing air restrictions. Chief executive John Whelan said exporters were hiring trucks to take goods to southern Europe where airports are still open.

However, he added that valuable exports to the US and Asia were being seriously disrupted.


Shares in the two Irish airlines were sharply lower in early trade this morning, with Aer Lingus dropping 8.7% to stand at 68.5 cent and Ryanair losing 3.6% to €3.75.

It is estimated that the two airlines are losing over €7m a day as the volcanic ash cloud continues to cause travel chaos across Europe. About €28m has been shaved off the combine sales of Aer Lingus and Ryanair since the volcano erupted last week.

Graces7

peasant wrote: »

That's what some computer models tell us. Planes that actually have flown through the ash cloud tell a different story.

As always, the truth lies somewhere in the middle. Just so far there are no agreed ways to find the truth. The whole airspace closure is based on a theoretical model and not on facts and risk assessment.

That has to change.

I know; but we are very simple and very practical people and at our level can do nothing.

And of course they are all covering their backs. Always the same.

I am posting to a US ireland forum and they are all so upset re cancelled holidays.. and so many stranded here too.

Cuauhtemoc

Was subsiding on the 12th as well...

http://news.eircom.net/breakingnews/17668920/

Prediction is never certain with volcanoes.

C.

darkman2

Only steam coming from the volcano now according to latest news reports. Ash fall has stopped downwind so looks like things are far better now for the next couple of days with regard to air travel.

Elmo5

Does it look like there's a bit of a drop in tremors around Katla?
http://hraun.vedur.is/ja/Katla2009/stodvaplott.html

maquiladora

Elmo5 wrote: »

Does it look like there's a bit of a drop in tremors around Katla?
http://hraun.vedur.is/ja/Katla2009/stodvaplott.html

Seems to have plateaued a bit alright.

LookingFor

The VAAC forecast if not already posted:

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/aviation/vaac/data/VAG_1271655414.png

I found the IAA's latest advisory a little subtle jab given the recent backlash against the bans...

The Volcanic Ash Advisory Centre London, the competent European authority in relation to volcanic ash, projects that the ash cloud is almost stagnant over Europe. Until weather conditions change this pattern, ongoing restrictions will continue.

Jumpy

nacho libre wrote: »

of course it all makes sense now. just as i missed all the signs that the hulkster was responsible for 9-11 -

He is responsible for far more than that.

His reign of terror goes all the way back to the Great Fire of London.

alibabba

The Royal Navy are been drafted in the rescue the brits stranded abroard, source sky news.

So i can expect a statement any time soon from the Irish Government that they are launching the complete fleet of LEs !

maquiladora

Confirming what we can see on the webcam and graphs....

Iceland volcano sends new tremors, lower ash cloud

Published: 04.19.10

The erupting volcano in Iceland sent further strong tremors throughout the surrounding area on Monday but the ash plume which has caused air traffic chaos has descended to an altitude of about 2 km (1.2 miles), the Meteorological Office said.

"The ash plume is very low. It's not much higher than 2 kilometers," Hjorleifur Sveinbjornsson, a geologist at the Meteorological Office, told Reuters. (Reuters)

My name is URL

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

Does this sound overly conspiracy-theory to you ... it occurs to me that when the volcanic ash became an issue early in the week, many governments were looking at sending their leaders to Poland, and then may have begun to reconsider the wisdom of that not so much because of volcanic dust hazards to aircraft but for entirely different reasons -- possibly suspecting that something could go awry with the security there, even something related to the original causes of the triggering event (the aircraft crash in Russia).

It occurs to me that if suddenly on Monday everything is okay for flight supposedly, this could look rather suspicious in retrospect. I shall now be on the watch for Russian, EU, CIA, Canadian and Club of Rome types in my antechambers. :eek:

People like to dismiss anything with the word conspiracy in it., but you'd be hard pressed to say that there was nothing odd about the whole thing. This really caught my attention - http://avherald.com/h?article=42a3d003&opt=0

After the events of the last 10 days, for that incident to happen just seems way too coincidental. I reckon the Russians knew what they were doing, and failed to complete the flight so as to prolong the grounding of others.. Stranger things have happened