The Iceland Volcano Thread

Pangea

Slimity wrote: »

What are the typical wind directions surrounding us for the next few months?(summer) Would South Westerlies be the most favourable to keep the ash away?
Also is it just N or NW winds that will cause us problems?

Thanks.

Yes according to forecasters south westerlies is the norm for Ireland and this would push the ash away from us.

So far this year in 2010, Id say roughly 60% of the time we have been getting wind from the north, hope this becomes a regular feat , southwest are boring and wet, we have got great dry weather this year so far, even though its been cold.
Oh and I dont mind about the ash unless im flying! :P
To be honest I find it fascinating, plus boards.ie weather section is still active, this is usually the time of the year when the snow posters go into hibernation , including myself

Pangea

This guy is pretty awesome not only is he taller than the volcano but he can also fly!



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MJohnston

Quick question...the current VAAC chart shows this location of ash cloud, with my assumption that the red area would be over Ireland and England currently:

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/aviation/vaac/data/VAG_1273465064.png

I assume, therefore, that this means that the red areas marked on the VAAC charts do not indicate areas of unflyable conditions, but rather just the extent of the entire cloud?

Jumpy

MJohnston wrote: »

Quick question...the current VAAC chart shows this location of ash cloud, with my assumption that the red area would be over Ireland and England currently:

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/aviation/vaac/data/VAG_1273465064.png

I assume, therefore, that this means that the red areas marked on the VAAC charts do not indicate areas of unflyable conditions, but rather just the extent of the entire cloud?

The black bits are unflyable.

http://metoffice.com/corporate/pressoffice/2010/volcano/ashconcentration/zoom_ashconcentration.html

dak

http://en.vedur.is/earthquakes-and-volcanism/earthquakes/


Seems to be a lot of activity in the last few hours !

drymartini

dak wrote: »

http://en.vedur.is/earthquakes-and-volcanism/earthquakes/


Seems to be a lot of activity in the last few hours !

Here's a screen shot of the quake map and table

dak

dak wrote: »

http://en.vedur.is/earthquakes-and-volcanism/earthquakes/

Seems to be a lot of activity in the last few hours !

That can't be good.

pauldry

Most of May and some of June too looks like having a Northerly component in the wind.

Apart from some brief breaks. This weekend should see a brief West or South Westerly. But the lack of Atlantic Activity and Blocking High in Mid Atlantic that is moving to our Southwest shores in the future will ensure a Northwesterly airflow persists a lot of the time for the coming weeks.

dak

hellboy99 wrote: »

That can't be good.

We would need an expert to tell us if it is of significance ! They didn't occur as frequently in the last few days. I read on one report that back in March 2010 over 3000 earthquakes were recorded in one day !

Queen-Mise

dak wrote: »

We would need an expert to tell us if it is of significance ! They didn't occur as frequently in the last few days. I read on one report that back in March 2010 over 3000 earthquakes were recorded in one day !

Is this worldwide or at the volcano.

octo

Check out the

Met Eireann/Mace Head Plume Spatial distribution of volcanic ash plume:

Jumpy

BIGGER

bamboozle

pauldry wrote: »

Most of May and some of June too looks like having a Northerly component in the wind.

Apart from some brief breaks. This weekend should see a brief West or South Westerly. But the lack of Atlantic Activity and Blocking High in Mid Atlantic that is moving to our Southwest shores in the future will ensure a Northwesterly airflow persists a lot of the time for the coming weeks.

can these winds be predicted this far in advance?

octo

Jumpy wrote: »

BIGGER

Ok. Couldn't figure out how to reduce the size....

octo

bamboozle wrote: »

can these winds be predicted this far in advance?

No. They can't.

Of course anyone can make a prediction (my Granny's chirpodist; Mystic Meg; Ken Ring, etc), it would be more accurate to say these winds can't be accurately predicted this far in advance.

Joe Public

bamboozle wrote: »

can these winds be predicted this far in advance?

With the same accuracy as betting on horses.

North Cork

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/northern_ireland/8672663.stm


Ryanair admits volcanic ash in Belfast engines




Ryanair has said that volcanic ash has been found in the engines of two of its aircraft at Belfast City Airport. Four Ryanair flights to England were cancelled at the airport on Sunday, leaving dozens of passengers stranded.
Initially, the airline said the planes all had separate technical problems unrelated to the Icelandic eruption.
But after further tests on Sunday, the airline confirmed that two of its aircraft at the City airport showed small traces of ash in their engines.
A Ryanair spokesman said the planes would return to service later on Monday.
"These aircraft will return to service once the manufacturer's approved procedures for return to service in such cases has been completed by Ryanair's engineers," he said.
'Trace elements'
He added that there "was no risk and no cause for concern."
The planes had flown in UK airspace which was open and unrestricted at the time.
The spokesman said Ryanair cannot explain why there was ash in the engines other than there are trace elements of it in the atmosphere.
UK airspace was closed for six days in April because of the ash cloud from Iceland's volcano.
The ash cloud has continued to cause disruption to flights in Europe.
Airports in Portugal, France and Austria have all been forced to ground some flights overnight, while some airports in Scotland and the Republic of Ireland had restrictions placed on them over the weekend.
Travellers from Northern Ireland are continuing to experience difficulties as a result.

roryc1

Good evening all, well Eyjafjallajökull is still going strong
http://eldgos.mila.is/eyjafjallajokull-fra-hvolsvelli/ ash plume is not as high as it has been over the last few days but is still around 17-20,000 ft at the moment,

but the real fun is happening underground Seismic tremor have taken a big jump today http://hraun.vedur.is/ja/Katla2009/stodvaplott.html and earthquakes been going strong all day http://en.vedur.is/earthquakes-and-volcanism/earthquakes/myrdalsjokull/

now as to what all this means i am like most here learning as i go but it sure looks like it's not going to stop anytime soon, and add to it this northenly wind that just wont go away I'm glad i am not flying anywhere soon

Superfint

North Cork wrote: »

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/northern_ireland/8672663.stm


Ryanair admits volcanic ash in Belfast engines




Ryanair has said that volcanic ash has been found in the engines of two of its aircraft at Belfast City Airport. Four Ryanair flights to England were cancelled at the airport on Sunday, leaving dozens of passengers stranded.
Initially, the airline said the planes all had separate technical problems unrelated to the Icelandic eruption.
But after further tests on Sunday, the airline confirmed that two of its aircraft at the City airport showed small traces of ash in their engines.
A Ryanair spokesman said the planes would return to service later on Monday.
"These aircraft will return to service once the manufacturer's approved procedures for return to service in such cases has been completed by Ryanair's engineers," he said.
'Trace elements'
He added that there "was no risk and no cause for concern."
The planes had flown in UK airspace which was open and unrestricted at the time.
The spokesman said Ryanair cannot explain why there was ash in the engines other than there are trace elements of it in the atmosphere.
UK airspace was closed for six days in April because of the ash cloud from Iceland's volcano.
The ash cloud has continued to cause disruption to flights in Europe.
Airports in Portugal, France and Austria have all been forced to ground some flights overnight, while some airports in Scotland and the Republic of Ireland had restrictions placed on them over the weekend.
Travellers from Northern Ireland are continuing to experience difficulties as a result.

I wish i never read this, i've never been so nervous about a flight in my life!! And i fly every month!!(Long distance relationship!) Flights are like taxi trips to me at this stage.
Am due to fly home tomarrow lunchtime!

DominoDub

Taken from the Aviation & Aircraft board:

A 48 hour animated forecast volcanic ash map from Norwegian Meteo:




http://www.yr.no/verkart/1.7103434

kevin12345

By the looks of two of the webcams I think another crater is spewing Not sure.

nadeshade

Man, meant to be flying to malaga on thursday afternoon, tryin to gauge is its gonna happen... are there any sites to get a wind forecast??

JustAddWater

See you there with a bit of luck. I'm heading there next wed! Spain is affected as much as Ireland is/has been. When it's not covering Ireland it's curling back in around portugal/spain! bah!

Best of luck with flights!

nadeshade wrote: »

Man, meant to be flying to malaga on thursday afternoon, tryin to gauge is its gonna happen... are there any sites to get a wind forecast??

dak

roryc1 wrote: »

Good evening all, well Eyjafjallajökull is still going strong

but the real fun is happening underground Seismic tremor have taken a big jump today http://hraun.vedur.is/ja/Katla2009/stodvaplott.html and earthquakes been going strong all day http://en.vedur.is/earthquakes-and-volcanism/earthquakes/myrdalsjokull/

now as to what all this means i am like most here learning as i go but it sure looks like it's not going to stop anytime soon, and add to it this northenly wind that just wont go away I'm glad i am not flying anywhere soon

According to the Icelandic met office the increased activity just indicates that lava is still flowing into the mantle.

The effect of this : a good diagram at this link

http://www.geology.wisc.edu/courses/g115/volcano/main2.html

" Rising magma gathers in the magma chamber a few kilometers below the vent. As more magma enters, pressure inside the chamber increases.
Then, bingo -- an eruption drops the pressure and spreads a mess of hot rock onto the surface. "

drymartini

21.52 - May 10 2010

drymartini

23.04 - May 10 2010

Joe Public

Ya'd never guess where I am

drymartini

00.43 - 11 May 2010

drymartini

01.11 - 11 May 2010

drymartini

03.54 - 11 May 2010

drymartini

04.41 - May 11 2010

jd

http://www.independent.ie/national-news/ryanair-confirms-volcanic-ash-found-in-engines-of-two-planes-2174970.html

Meanwhile, air travellers were promised only "minimal disruption" today as it emerged that Irish academics have developed the country's first system of forecasting the dispersion of the ash plume.

Sophisticated

The forecasting system developed at NUI Galway is expected to be one of the most sophisticated in Europe.

The four-day forecasts of plume density and dispersion are currently compiled at least twice a day.

However, over the next week these will increase to six-day forecasts, four times daily.

Professor Colin O'Dowd, director of the Centre for Climate & Air Pollution Studies at NUI Galway, behind the new system, said the rapid development of the volcanic plume forecasting system would provide Ireland's own capability of assessment and prediction.

And something from a facebook (!) wall thread..

... next-generation replacement Harmonie, which is higher resolution (Hirlam run at 11km, Harmonie at 2.5-5km, heading for 1km).


..Harmonie is currently under quasi-operational mode in Met Eireann, ..ICHEC and Met Eireann R&A (are) debugging it in places, and it is being given to the operational forecasters to evaluate. They're notoriously conservative : after all its their reputations at stake, and it will be 1-2 years before it takes over HIRLAM. Within the Hirlam community in Europe its not the official product yet, but pressure is on to make it a "supported, operational" model before the end of year.

...Harmonie is computatationally expensive, so you would run it only over land, that is over Ireland itself. The Hirlam model is currently run both in a 'fine' resolution over Ireland and 'operational' over the whole of the N. Atlantic to Greenland (snow cover on Greenland affects the Irish weather 3 days later). No need to have 1 km resolution over the atlantic, its really only needed over the topography of Ireland.

bamboozle

jd wrote: »

http://www.independent.ie/national-news/ryanair-confirms-volcanic-ash-found-in-engines-of-two-planes-2174970.html




And something from a facebook (!) wall thread..

where can we see these forecasts? the one's i've been looking at via carlowweather.com dont seem to go any further ahead than 18 hours

jd

http://www.macehead.org/index.php?option=com_content&view=category&id=97&Itemid=83

bamboozle

jd wrote: »

http://www.macehead.org/index.php?option=com_content&view=category&id=97&Itemid=83

in the coloured scale of 1 - 8000 what level exceeds tolerated levels for aircraft is it once it goes into the black?

jd

bamboozle wrote: »

in the coloured scale of 1 - 8000 what level exceeds tolerated levels for aircraft is it once it goes into the black?

I don't Know!

nadeshade

jd wrote: »

http://www.macehead.org/index.php?option=com_content&view=category&id=97&Itemid=83

...
I can't make any sense of that!?

jd83

I have a flight tommorrow morning ( Wednesday). Dublin to bratislava .How are my chances of it going ahead.

bamboozle

jd83 wrote: »

I have a flight tommorrow morning ( Wednesday). Dublin to bratislava .How are my chances of it going ahead.

from the models on carlowweather.com Ireland and Eastern Europe look ok for tomorrow.

In saying that, does anyone know the difference on these model images between FL000 & FL200 and FL200 and FL350?

the models for FLooo to FL200 seem to be much denser

Jumpy

bamboozle wrote: »

from the models on carlowweather.com Ireland and Eastern Europe look ok for tomorrow.

In saying that, does anyone know the difference on these model images between FL000 & FL200 and FL200 and FL350?

the models for FLooo to FL200 seem to be much denser

Sea level to 20,000 feet, 20,000 feet to 35,000 feet IIRC.

bamboozle

Jumpy wrote: »

Sea level to 20,000 feet, 20,000 feet to 35,000 feet IIRC.

thanks, from this then it would appear the density of the plume is much lighter/reducing over 20,000 feet.
read somewhere else the quantity of ash coming from the volcano has dropped from 300-400 tonnes per second last thursday to about 50 tonnes per second today.

hopefully these are signs the volcano will be calming down

JoeyJJ

Anyone hazzard a guess at airports status over the weekend? Dublin, Knock and Liverpool being the ones i'm in interested in.

Jumpy

bamboozle wrote: »

300-400 tonnes per second

:eek:

Thats how much was coming out? That is insane.

dak

The volcanic ash tolerance level set by the CAA is a concentration of 0.002 grams per cubic metre at regular cruise altitudes. Any airspace with a greater ash concentration is a no-fly zone.

This is the limit but not sure how that is interpreted in the graph!

ch750536

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/northern_ireland/8674226.stm

'A Ryanair said: "After take-off cabin crew noticed an acrid smell and standard procedure was followed and the aircraft turned back and landed."
All 154 passengers disembarked safely at about 0730 BST.
Passenger Andy Patterson said: "There was a slight delay before the flight as they were checking out the engines.
"Slightly after take-off there was a distinct smell of fumes in the cabin. A short while later the pilot came over the tannoy and said we would return to Belfast as a precautionary measure," he added.'

Graces7

ch750536 wrote: »

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/northern_ireland/8674226.stm

'A Ryanair said: "After take-off cabin crew noticed an acrid smell and standard procedure was followed and the aircraft turned back and landed."
All 154 passengers disembarked safely at about 0730 BST.
Passenger Andy Patterson said: "There was a slight delay before the flight as they were checking out the engines.
"Slightly after take-off there was a distinct smell of fumes in the cabin. A short while later the pilot came over the tannoy and said we would return to Belfast as a precautionary measure," he added.'

Heard this on a radio in a shop today; and something re two other planes being taken out of service with ?? ash damage?

bamboozle

Graces7 wrote: »

Heard this on a radio in a shop today; and something re two other planes being taken out of service with ?? ash damage?

Ryanair spokesman was on RTE saying these planes were back in service within 6 hours.

Jumpy

Not ash damage. Ash detection.

Tabnabs

Looking at the Yr.no model it looks like Ireland will be covered on Thursday/Friday. Is this consistent with other models and will the airports most likely be shut during this period (have a return flight Thursday evening)?

alibabba

Dyflin wrote: »

Looking at the Yr.no model it looks like Ireland will be covered on Thursday/Friday. Is this consistent with other models and will the airports most likely be shut during this period (have a return flight Thursday evening)?

If that graph is even half accurate, we are looking at complete irish airspace shutdown thursday morning

And looking at live feed, she is still going full pelt !