The Iceland Volcano Thread

bamboozle

there was some guy (i think from DAA) on Morning Ireland this morning saying they are hoping to agree with UK and European aviation authorities to further reduce the no-fly zone around the plume, initially this would only be for ireland and uk as we're suffering most, assuming there is no increased safety risks this should be welcomed.

fire_man

im flying to the UK on Friday,will i be able to go or should i book by ferry?

bamboozle

fire_man wrote: »

im flying to the UK on Friday,will i be able to go or should i book by ferry?

think we're due south westerlys after tomorrow which would see the airports clear. check carlow weather maps on the ash projections

fire_man

I taught i saw there is a north wind in the uk on friday,i will check the maps,thanks

fire_man

I just checked there looks ok for friday,are these realible?

maquiladora

The ash forecast looks good for the foreseeable future :

http://transport.nilu.no/browser/fpv?fpp=conccol_VO_1_

Strasser

First quake on Katla since I starting looking at this several weeks ago.

http://http://en.vedur.is/earthquakes-and-volcanism/earthquakes/myrdalsjokull/

alibabba

Strasser wrote: »

First quake on Katla since I starting looking at this several weeks ago.

http://http://en.vedur.is/earthquakes-and-volcanism/earthquakes/myrdalsjokull/

:eek:
That cud be significant, lets hope not.

Mr Benevolent

First quake on Katla since I starting looking at this several weeks ago.

Ah crap.

roryc1

Strasser wrote: »

First quake on Katla since I starting looking at this several weeks ago.

http://http://en.vedur.is/earthquakes-and-volcanism/earthquakes/myrdalsjokull/

Don't panic just yet, its was a -0.2 Earthquake with a 37.78 Quality, it might just be a error or maybe we are all DOOMED

dak

I'm sure there have been 1 or 2 on the edge of Katla a few weeks ago but this is the first one I have seen near the centre!

maquiladora

Not too worried about that quake near Katla, it's probably an error and will get moved later.

Rebelbrowser

maquiladora wrote: »

The ash forecast looks good for the foreseeable future :

http://transport.nilu.no/browser/fpv?fpp=conccol_VO_1_

I'm flying to Mallorca on Thursday and that frightens me! Looks problematic at Spanish end. It contradicts the UK Met Office at http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/corporate/pressoffice/2010/volcano/ashconcentration/fiveday.html#D4

Which of these is more accurate?

maquiladora

Rebelbrowser wrote: »

I'm flying to Mallorca on Thursday and that frightens me! Looks problematic at Spanish end. It contradicts the UK Met Office at http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/corporate/pressoffice/2010/volcano/ashconcentration/fiveday.html#D4

Which of these is more accurate?

That animated forecast is showing a fairly low density of ash over Spain, I don't think that would be enough to cause restrictions.

bamboozle

dak wrote: »

I'm sure there have been 1 or 2 on the edge of Katla a few weeks ago but this is the first one I have seen near the centre!

i've seen a few over the last few weeks over Katla

Thomas828

Heathrow and Gatwick airports were closed for hours today. They seem to realise that ash cloud isn't going to go away anytime soon and they'll have to plan their schedules around it.

maquiladora

Impressive looking plume coming into view on the webcam now :

http://eldgos.mila.is/eyjafjallajokull-fra-hvolsvelli/

JustAddWater

You talking about this one? Thats HEKLA or am I missing something?

HELKA btw would be just as bad eruption-wise

Strasser wrote: »

First quake on Katla since I starting looking at this several weeks ago.

http://http://en.vedur.is/earthquakes-and-volcanism/earthquakes/myrdalsjokull/

Rougies

JustAddWater wrote: »

You talking about this one? Thats HEKLA or am I missing something?

HELKA btw would be just as bad eruption-wise

Katla is under the Myrdalsjokull glacier, on the bottom right

JustAddWater

Cool!

Hekla does still have a quake right bang in the middle though!

Rougies wrote: »

Katla is under the Myrdalsjokull glacier, on the bottom right

hotwhiskey

On Discovery channel now about Katla!:)

silverharp

hotwhiskey wrote: »

On Discovery channel now about Katla!:)

thanks, a prog on Discovery thats not about sharks , Nosradamus or the Nazis. wow!

silverharp

What is the latest about how accurate the forecasts are? are the airlines right to be worried that the modelling is BS?

nacho libre

http://uk.news.yahoo.com/5/20100517/tuk-new-measures-will-allow-flights-thro-45dbed5.html

"the summer season is coming up, so we feel it's worth the risk in order not to lose money, but we really do prioritise passenger saftey"

Deep Easterly

Very unusual skies here at the moment. Very hazy with high cloud barely visible but what is is a smuggy orange red. There is also a haze at surface level too that does not equate to the increased humidity of the air today.

I think there may be trace volcanic ash over us at the moment, more so than yesterday when no such phenomena was visible.

maquiladora

According to IMO this evening "winds around the volcano are slightly increasing, resulting in lower plume height."

drymartini

02.17am & 02.21am have lightning showing

drymartini

0.24am - May 18 2010

drymartini

05.08am - May 18 2010

bamboozle

Strasser wrote: »

First quake on Katla since I starting looking at this several weeks ago.

http://http://en.vedur.is/earthquakes-and-volcanism/earthquakes/myrdalsjokull/

based on this chart there is very little recent activity

bamboozle

new ash disruption measures introduced...

http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/breaking/2010/0518/breaking8.html

ninebeanrows

Funny isn't it, the measure will continue to be relaxed and relaxed if there continues to be disruption.

All until a plane falls out of the sky.

Money talks.

jambofc

Weathercheck wrote: »

Funny isn't it, the measure will continue to be relaxed and relaxed if there continues to be disruption.

All until a plane falls out of the sky.

Money talks.

been thinking that myself,cant believe that they have relaxed the level safe to fly threw....here's hoping it's not a wrong decision.

Pangea

Weathercheck wrote: »

Funny isn't it, the measure will continue to be relaxed and relaxed if there continues to be disruption.

All until a plane falls out of the sky.

Money talks.

Isnt it great , we can now fly closer to the volcanic ash!!

Money talks indeed , its pretty ridiclous how they are compromising travel problems for safety.
Oh and if a plane does fall out of the sky let michael o leary be in it.

Villain

To be fair lads, the restrictions in place over Europe only changed last year previous to that they were simalar to the rest of the world. From what I understand in other parts of the world they have a buffer no fly zone within a certain distance of an active Volcano and then they use visual observations to determine their route.

Also the modern engines operate at a lot higher temps and so the threat of Ash was thought to be worse but they have done a lot of testing in labs and found this isn't the case, although long exposures can cause issues thus this is why I think the new time limit zone has been put in place.

I don't think safety is been put at risk I just think the original restrictions were over the top and were put in place without proper testing and analysis. Also while many people don't like Michael O'Leary, Ryanair have one of the newest fleets of planes and their safety record is excellent.

nacho libre

Villain wrote: »

To be fair lads, the restrictions in place over Europe only changed last year previous to that they were simalar to the rest of the world. From what I understand in other parts of the world they have a buffer no fly zone within a certain distance of an active Volcano and then they use visual observations to determine their route.

Also the modern engines operate at a lot higher temps and so the threat of Ash was thought to be worse but they have done a lot of testing in labs and found this isn't the case, although long exposures can cause issues thus this is why I think the new time limit zone has been put in place.

I don't think safety is been put at risk I just think the original restrictions were over the top and were put in place without proper testing and analysis. Also while many people don't like Michael O'Leary, Ryanair have one of the newest fleets of planes and their safety record is excellent.

yes i'll give you that about Ryanair. it's the one area where O'leary doesn't skimp on - but of course it's only good business sense. you may have a point about the original restrictions being over the top, but i suspect some people in aviation would calculate it was worth taking a higher degree of risk the longer the disruption goes on, particularly when we are coming into one of the busiest times of the year for aviation. also it's worth bearing in mind that there has been huge pressure coming on for the scientific analysis to correspond with the wishes of the airliners. so it wouldn't surprise me if the data may be a little skewed. it has happened in the past when research has been undertaken, only for the findings to be proven not to be sound. i hope that's not the case here.

maquiladora

No view on the webcams but according the the latest Iceland Met Office report:

A powerful explosive eruption is ongoing and the height of the plume suggests that the eruption rate is over 200 tonnes per second.

drymartini

23.50 - May 18 2010

http://hraun.vedur.is/ja/Katla2009/gosplott.html

Shows a slowdown in all kinds of activity! over the past few days.

The real question is, what was the 2nd of May event?

nacho libre

nacho libre wrote: »

yes i'll give you that about Ryanair. it's the one area where O'leary doesn't skimp on - but of course it's only good business sense.

At the end of the day, given the choice of being stuck on the ground at some crappy airport or experiencing this,

It was, in Moody's words, "a bit like negotiating one's way up a badger's arse"

I know what my preferance is!

maquiladora

Deleted User wrote: »

http://hraun.vedur.is/ja/Katla2009/gosplott.html

Shows a slowdown in all kinds of activity! over the past few days.

The real question is, what was the 2nd of May event?

The tremors on that graph do not show earthquake swarms that can indicate magma movement deep under the volcano and do not show the amount of ash production. The tremors there indicate lava flow close to the surface more than anything else I think. And the volcano is in an explosive phase at the moment, with not much lava flow, thats why that graph doesnt look very active now.

drymartini

Screen shot 05.19 - 19 May 2010

alibabba

drymartini wrote: »

Screen shot 05.19 - 19 May 2010

Im on the way !
lol

alibabba

http://www.sat24.com/Eyjafjallajokull-volcano.aspx

cloudy, but you can def see a serious plume thru the clouds.

Also, I have been looking at the mulakot cam daily, and i have noticed the landscape on all three views have become extremely dark with all the ash that has fallen.

bamboozle

maquiladora wrote: »

No view on the webcams but according the the latest Iceland Met Office report:

when it re-erupted about 2 weeks ago it was coughing out 300-400 tonnes per second so 200 per second is a significant reduction

bamboozle

you can see on http://www.carlowweather.com/wxwarning.php that the maps which previously had red and black areas to signify plume coverage and areas which exceed accepted levels to fly in have now been adjusted to include a grey area which signifies the latest easing of restrictions.

ellieh1

Does anyone have a link to a wed cam that has a good view of the volcano plume ect?

maquiladora

ellieh1 wrote: »

Does anyone have a link to a wed cam that has a good view of the volcano plume ect?

There is no good view at the moment because of cloud cover.

drymartini

21.44 - May 19 2010

Pangea

Villain wrote: »

. Also while many people don't like Michael O'Leary, Ryanair have one of the newest fleets of planes and their safety record is excellent.

Who said anything about ryanair