The Iceland Volcano Thread

maquiladora

Rikand wrote: »

I have the window open at work here.... I'm waiting for it!

Not that large.

If there is a large enough subglacial eruption it will break through the ice, that would be more explosive than the effusive eruption thats been going on so far.

Rikand

krankykitty wrote: »

the webcam isn't working here what one are you using? EDIT - its working now!

hehe, as Maq hinted, not large enough for me to hear it

I cant view webcams at work. I'm doing well enough just to be able to read boards

maquiladora

Scientists and journalists are being advised to leave the area now due to increased activity in the area.

Iancar29

Pyrocumulus landspouts anybody?

maquiladora

I think it's likely an eruption has started or is close to starting under the glacier again. If it's small then we'll just see an increase in water levels somewhere and deformations on the ice surface in the next few days.

Its hard to know exactly whats going on though.

rickdangerouss

The latest updates and with amazing developments.



That is a start of a rift valley. The big news today was

A large explosive eruption possible
The scientists say that an eruption straight up from such a magma chamber, where acidic magma has been gathering for a long time, could be a large one and could produce large amounts of ash and pumice, similar to the eruption in Askja, a nearby Icelandic volcano, in 1875. There is currently no indication of an eruption of that size being imminent at Bardarbunga, even though there is considerable earthquake activity in the rim of the caldera. Still, the scientists say, that scenario cannot be ruled out.

http://www.ruv.is/m/frett/743714

That Image below, points to a possible outcome that they have discussed in private, I understand that they think a higher chance of this taking place.




An extract below:

• Earthquake activity continues – around 160 earthquakes have been recorded since midnight today. Seismicity is occurring mostly beneath the northern edge of Dyngjujökull. A magnitude 5.5 earthquake occurred at 03:08 UTC today on the northern side of the Bárðarbunga caldera.
• GPS measurements show that the volume of the dyke intrusion has increased since the beginning of the eruption; this signifies that more magma is entering the dyke than is being erupted.
• Despite no sign of a volume decrease in the dyke, GPS measurements show that the rate of ground deformation has slowed.
• Recent radar images show a 0.5 – 1 km wide depression that has formed both in front of and beneath Dyngjujökull. Signs of the depression extend about 2 km into the ice margin. The increasing thickness of the glacier decreases the visual extent of fracturing associated with the depression, so it is likely that the area extends further beneath Dyngjujökull.
• In light of GPS, radar and seismic results, it is possible that the ongoing eruption could progress southward under Dyngjujökull. This would lead to immediate flooding hazards on the floodplain in front of Dyngjujökull. Consequently, risk assessments for scientists working in the area will be reviewed.
• The volcanic eruption continues on Holuhraun; the main path for lava is to the east-north-east.
• At 08:00 UTC today the total area of the lava flow was estimated at 7.2 km2.

Iancar29

Four quakes above mag. 4 in the past 10 hours

The One Doctor

Is it just me or does it look like the caldera is 'unzipping'?

maquiladora

maquiladora wrote: »

I think it's likely an eruption has started or is close to starting under the glacier again. If it's small then we'll just see an increase in water levels somewhere and deformations on the ice surface in the next few days.

Its hard to know exactly whats going on though.

Looks like this was a false alarm yesterday. Tremor has since dropped backed down to previous levels, it may have been ground water getting into contact with the magma below the surface rather than magma pushing up.

maquiladora

A much better webcam setup. Streaming directly to Youtube from Mila.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pQszF2Bq2PE

Iancar29

Now thats what i call a selfie!!!

hawkwing

Another 5.2 overnight :

05/09/2014 01:19 5.2 ICELAND
04/09/2014 23:33 4.3 ICELAND
03/09/2014 03:09 5.2 ICELAND
02/09/2014 22:53 4.6 ICELAND
02/09/2014 13:55 4.5 ICELAND
02/09/2014 11:26 4.5 ICELAND
01/09/2014 11:41 5.2 ICELAND
01/09/2014 08:58 4.9 ICELAND

maquiladora

New fissure has opened up, extending further south towards the glacier. It's possible this could continue leading up to and under the glacier.

morticia2

http://icelandreview.com/news/2014/09/05/holuhraun-eruption-site-now-closed-all

Article covering the newest fissures!

DominoDub

Was in Iceland a few months ago ...but will go back next week for this €1,600 Flight if I win the Euro millions tonight

http://nordurflug.is/iceland-helicopter-tours/epic-iceland-eruption/

http://vimeo.com/105277259

feargale

I'm flying the North Atlantic in about three weeks' time. What are the predictions meantime? If Iceland starts spewing this sh1t how fast does the volcanic cloud travel around the world?

tomcosgrave

feargale wrote: »

I'm flying the North Atlantic in about three weeks' time. What are the predictions meantime? If Iceland starts spewing this sh1t how fast does the volcanic cloud travel around the world?

Well, it isn't known if it will spew anything. It may, but perhaps not by three weeks time. If it does, we don't know how much, or what the weather will be doing, which would have an effect on where the stuff went.

Alternatively, there could be an eruption and it could be gone by three weeks.

So basically, nobody really knows!

je551e

Mag 5 to 5.2 earthquake just occurred, IMO yet to confirm

DominoDub

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BUREX8aFbMs

:eek: A amazing capture of the moment of a Volcanic Eruption in Papua New Guinea in the last few days 28/8/14 ..watch for the Sound Waves.

Rikand

That was a serious bang!

maquiladora

Just noticed that some of the SO2 cloud released by the eruptions is over Ireland today.

Rikand

Is it visible ?

maquiladora

Nice view on the webcam at the moment. You can see just how far the lava has extended now. Glowing leading edge in the bottom left.

RoisinD

5.4 at around 8.00am
http://baering.github.io/

Oneiric 3

Rikand wrote: »

Is it visible ?

Not sure where you are located but here in the west at least, the sky yesterday (and to a lesser extent today) had a fairly 'diffused' look about it, indicating the presence of some sort of haze particles in the atmosphere. Normally this would only happen if the the air mass is sourced over the heart of continental Europe, but given we are currently under a very stable maritime air mass, it is possible that the slight haze both yesterday and today may be the result of that SO2 cloud.

Rikand

Thank you!

yellowlabrador

the sky was very red at sunset here in west cork. another sign of particles in the atmosphere

The One Doctor

I've also noticed that the moon has a slightly coppery tinge over the last week, another possible atmospheric effect?

maquiladora

The portion of the SO2 cloud over Ireland quickly dissipated yesterday.

maquiladora

Latest thoughts from Jon Frimann.

The caldera in Bárðarbunga volcano is dropping and it is dropping fast. According to latest news from Rúv the caldera is dropping up to 90 cm/day. That is a huge drop for a mountain. There is also clue that central part of the caldera floor is now so soft that it no longer breaks and creates earthquakes, it is just buckling under the strain. This increases the risk of eruption in the central caldera up to almost certainty levels (for me that is 96+% chance of happening). The latest news from Rúv tell that the thickness of the glacier in the central part of the glacier is up to 850 meters thick. Since last Saturday the caldera has dropped 2 – 3 meters, meaning that current drop is now around 18,5 meters.

IMO have used a helicopter to place a GPS station directly onto the glacier above the caldera today.

tomcosgrave

So if this thing goes "boom" and it appears it very likely will, how much of a "boom" will there be?

Hysterical speculation on another site is contemplating the possibility of evacuating the entire population of Iceland if the SO2 levels get too high after the "boom!"

maquiladora

tomcosgrave wrote: »

So if this thing goes "boom" and it appears it very likely will, how much of a "boom" will there be?

Depends on a number of factors we just don't know. If a large portion of that 850m thick glacier suddenly comes into contact with molten rock then it will be a very big boom indeed.

But remember that its a very remote area, nobody lives around there. It's very unlikely there would be any deaths or even injuries. The 2011 eruption was the largest in Iceland in ~100 years but nobody suffered a scratch and only 900 flights got cancelled. So very big booms don't always mean a big deal when they happen in really remote areas that have already been evacuated.

The pictures and videos would be amazing though.

tomcosgrave

Yeah I'd be surprised if there were any serious numbers killed or injured.
But I am intrigued to see what happens.

The nerd in me just wants to see something amazing

maquiladora

tomcosgrave wrote: »

Yeah I'd be surprised if there were any serious numbers killed or injured.
But I am intrigued to see what happens.

The nerd in me just wants to see something amazing

I think it's already amazing as it is at the moment even if there isn't a large explosive eruption. Largest lava flow in Iceland since the 19th century.

Lava fountains looking nice at dusk on the webcams at the moment.

http://www.livefromiceland.is/webcams/bardarbunga/
http://www.livefromiceland.is/webcams/bardarbunga-2/

rickdangerouss

tomcosgrave wrote: »

Yeah I'd be surprised if there were any serious numbers killed or injured.
But I am intrigued to see what happens.

The nerd in me just wants to see something amazing

Jon, is highlighting one possible outcome to a caldera event. If something like, a fast collapse happens. They are many ways that event can play out, a small Phreatic eruption has the highest chance of happening, that would go boom.

If this does happen, it might not even get above the ice, The IMO just does not have enough data to say what will happen.


This picture at the bottom, outlines the drop across the volcano, BB.
The minus 16 to 18 meters covers a small fraction of the caldera, so that hints at nothing big again.


http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Phreatic_eruption

and

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Plinian_eruption

uncle_sam_ie

Could the high SO2 levels have an effect on us?

IrishGurll

http://s17.postimg.org/ye3jfdy3z/bardarbunga_x.png
AMAZED BY THIS.
Been watching on the live cams most of the night, things are really heating up pun intended.

maquiladora

According to RUV, the director of Iceland's Civil Protection Agency is now "gravely concerned" about the risk of a large eruption and glacial flood. The caldera continues to lower, down 20m now. A large glacial flood could pose a danger to Iceland's hydroelectric plants. The Prime Minister will be briefed tomorrow.

ninebeanrows

Looks like there was a large enough 5.5 quake in the volcanoe a few hours ago.

Wednesday
10.09.2014 05:28:29 64.672 -17.469 2.6 km 5.5 99.0 4.5 km NE of Bárðarbunga

maquiladora

Gas release from the eruption is causing health concerns in parts of Iceland.

Important announcement regarding high levels of SO2 in Reyðarfjörður

10.09.2014

High consentration of SO2 was measured at Reyðarfjordur in the eastern fjords today and peaked at 1400 measuring the air quality at 2600 µg/m3. Measurement were showing decreasing concentration at 1500. It is uncertain how the situation will develop. Members in sensitive groups, including healthy individuals with mild asthma, may experience health effects. They may be affected at lower levels than general public. Toward the upper end of this range, most asthmatics who are active outdoors are likely to experience some breathing difficulties.

2600 µg/m3 is the highest level ever measured in that part of Iceland.

rickdangerouss

Clearly there is an association between sigs in Bárðarbunga eruption of lava pocket. The immediate chain of events can be explained by dynamic run theory presented in the Krafla eruption: lava flow before Bárðarbunga, hallway arising under Dyngjujökli and comes in blowout lava. But what is the agenda? In the current climate of events may occur through a variety of means. These scenarios can be considered the most likely are:

Drooping of the first stops before it becomes very much and lava erupted in the hole goes out (Scenario A).





2 drooping continues and even gets a few hundred meters as well as the eruption continues blowout lava and / or under Dyngjujökli. Be expected that the eruption is prolonged and could size measured in cubic kilometers before this is over. If Fissure is extended to the south or soda will open in a new place can be expected floods and ash fall. It can not be ruled out that a new crack to the southwest, open the glacier south of convexity with respect to the land beyond the glacier (Scenario .




3 deviate find their way up box broken and the eruption begins within liner. Such a large eruption could melt ice and cause significant glacier run. It could also happen that the water does not shut out if slip was well underway when the eruption would start. The water would then later in a massive glacier run. When privacy erupted through the ice would turn into explosive eruptions with associated pyroclastic fall (Scenario C).



The situation is confused and can not decide between these options at the moment.

http://jardvis.hi.is/hugleidingar_um_oskjusig_i_bardarbungu_og_mogulegar_svidsmyndir

Dean Paul Einarsson

MayoForSam

Pretty spectacular red moon just rising in the east, possibly due to volcanic dust particles in the atmosphere?

DOCARCH

MayoForSam wrote: »

Pretty spectacular red moon just rising in the east, possibly due to volcanic dust particles in the atmosphere?

Also possibly due to the dirty europeans/brits...east wind. :P

Oneiric 3

DOCARCH wrote: »

Also possibly due to the dirty europeans/brits...east wind. :P

Would say more from UK, although the air today seemed pretty clean and clear.

This is a nice site for air quality forecasts for Europe at different levels, but unfortunately does not update very often, sometimes many days.

http://silam.fmi.fi/AQ/operational/europe/

Hooter23

Iceland's Bárðarbunga volcano could be about to erupt, say scientists after noticing that the surface of the glacier above the volcano's caldera (cauldron-like crater at top of volcano) has begun to sink by around 65 feet since last week.

Powerful tremors measuring magnitude 5.5 shook the region near the volcano on Wednesday at 05:28 GMT.

The eruption could be large depending on the amount of magma in the volcano's chamber, writes Vox.

A volcanic eruption below the glacier could produce a violent steam explosion throwing up clouds of ash into the atmosphere.

A cloud of ash from the Eyjafjallajokull volcano in a different region of Iceland had closed much of Europe's air space for six days in 2010.

Lava continued to pour from fissures in the ground but there was no ash, reports Reuters.

Besides an ash explosion, another scenario, according to the Iceland meteorological organisation, is that the eruption could melt the ice and result in flooding of the river flowing north.

Even the ongoing lava eruption on reaching back to the glacier could lead to ash explosions and flooding.

Or, the caldera could stop sinking, seismic activity could cease and lava flows decline.

The caldera spreads over 80 square km and is covered by an ice cap that is 700 to 800 metres thick.

The caldera has been sinking since last week as magma channelled through underground passages moves away from the volcano, leaving empty space beneath.

https://uk.news.yahoo.com/icelands-b%C3%A1r%C3%B0arbunga-volcano-erupt-caldera-sinks-fast-075122834.html

RoisinD

Cameras looking good at the moment

http://www.livefromiceland.is/webcams/bardarbunga-2/

http://www.livefromiceland.is/webcams/bardarbunga/


5.2 38 mins ago

http://baering.github.io/

Zzippy

Has it kicked off? Looks like an ash cloud on right of webcam, and camera shaking a lot...

maquiladora

Zzippy wrote: »

Has it kicked off? Looks like an ash cloud on right of webcam, and camera shaking a lot...

Camera shaking is just wind. The gas/steam cloud is just drifting in a different direction so it looks bigger.

stooge

webcam should come with a disclaimer that wind can cause the camera to shake! very deceiving!