The Iceland Volcano Thread

maquiladora

Interesting, Iceland's public-service broadcaster posted this information page.

Radio broadcasts during natural disasters

Should natural disaster or other circumstances have an impact on the Icelandic electricity system and inhibit electricity distribution, regular FM-radio transitions will be severely limited. RUV‘s distribution network is powered by electricity. Only a portion has backup generators. Hence, the primary distribution on radio will be on long wave (LW). Many modern radios do not receive long wave but car radios often do. It is also advisable to have a small, battery-powered LW-radio at hand in case of emergency as RUV radio is the primary method of conveying information from Civil Protection Authorities.

http://www.ruv.is/langbylgja

Hydro and geothermal power provides Iceland with almost 100% of its electricity, a great glacial flood could really disrupt/damage some of these plants. I suppose this shows they are taking that possibility seriously now.

rickdangerouss

https://twitter.com/gislio/status/510500468934868992

^^^^
Just hope it's not too close!

rickdangerouss

The concentration of sulfur is now rapidly with the plant and its vicinity, and it's over three thousand micrograms per cubic meter. People who are vulnerable should not be outdoors unnecessarily retain preferably indoors and close windows. Residents are asked to closely monitor measurements Environment.

Pollution caused by sulfur dioxide has never before been so much in-built in this country.

The Environment Agency says the following guidelines for sulfur dioxide pollution, ranging from three thousand to nine thousand micrograms per cubic meter: respiratory symptoms likely in all persons, particularly persons with underlying respiratory disease. Stay indoors and close windows. Turn off ventilation.


Pollution began in 3846 micrograms per meter deep in the plant has started to go down at 22:46 and arrived in 1124 at the exact meter. He first amount of pollution coming from the eruption site. Two other scopes are plant and is one of the Egilsstöðum small contamination observed there.

That might become a bigger local issue if this continues on into winter.

RoisinD

http://mashable.com/2014/09/11/iceland-bardabunga-volcano-eruption-photos/#:eyJzIjoiZiIsImkiOiJfM2RrODdtb3cybWhnZWFweSJ9

Some pretty spectacular photographs

maquiladora

This is the new GPS station that was placed on the glacier above the volcano caldera. Updates every 5 minutes.

http://brunnur.vedur.is/pub/vatnavakt/bardarbunga/

Edit :

A 5.3 earthquake and you can see on the GPS plot a near instant drop of around 20cm at the same time.

The One Doctor

Another sharp drop since. Seems a bit ominous.

tomcosgrave

Jón Frímann has a pretty grim posting. Some of the comments are talking about an uplift. Is it Bardabunga about to go bang?
http://www.jonfr.com/volcano/?p=4976

tomcosgrave

Okay, apparently there's a fair bit of wind and one of the sensors has gone faulty...so things are not as ominous at this time (1.35am Irish time) as they appeared earlier.

rickdangerouss

tomcosgrave wrote: »

Okay, apparently there's a fair bit of wind and one of the sensors has gone faulty...so things are not as ominous at this time (1.35am Irish time) as they appeared earlier.

Official notice about the sudden uplift.

“Institute of Earth Sciences
5 hours ago
Some might have noticed rapid chances in the last few days at a GPS site sitting at mt Grímsfjall, at the rim of Grímsvötn caldera. This is actually not a real response of the ground but rather the result of ice built up on the GPS antenna. We can tell the difference by looking closely at the data during the processing.

http://strokkur.raunvis.hi.is/gps/GFUM_3mrap.png”;

tomcosgrave wrote: »

Jón Frímann has a pretty grim posting. Some of the comments are talking about an uplift. Is it Bardabunga about to go bang?
http://www.jonfr.com/volcano/?p=4976

Yes, I was viewing Jon's website. My personal view is, wait till the professional's provide daily updates, via the IMO or other websites.

Jon is welcome to post his views and discuss it on his blog, I just would like to get other view points to this one in a life time event.


This event could go on for along time, stop and start. If you see image below, it has dropped 20+ meters, but that spread out over a few kilometers.
Once the drop is another 100+ meters, that might be a good time to watch for an eruption.

maquiladora

Another large quake and another large drop this morning. Amazing to see a mountain under a huge glacier sinking almost half a meter in a matter of moments. It's a bit like watching geologic time on fastforward.

Duiske

Interesting to note the drop off in seismic activity since that 5.4 quake about 8am this morning.

Duiske

The cloud above the fissure looks freaky just now .... link to webcam

Calibos

Duiske wrote: »

The cloud above the fissure looks freaky just now .... link to webcam

Hakuna Matatta

frogloch

Is the webcam on top of Bardarbunga cos it looks like theres steam coming up just around edge of the mountain?

maquiladora

frogloch wrote: »

Is the webcam on top of Bardarbunga cos it looks like theres steam coming up just around edge of the mountain?

Thats just steam rising from where the lava field from the fissure eruption has met a river. Bardarbunga is under a glacier, far off on the horizon, from the webcams point of view.

rickdangerouss

Big news of the day.

The fissure looks to be slowing\stopping.

Another one could happen close by or under the Ice. (some more EQ has been happening days in the last days)

Could just stop and go to sleep for months or years.

Or BB could start to go BOOM!! with the extra pressure. *guess*

Magma is not stopping going in and the big EQ's have not stopped.

http://www.mbl.is/frettir/english/2014/09/16/an_eruption_in_the_sands_a_best_case_scenario

Via the IMO website

The largest earthquakes at Bárðarbunga last night measured magnitude 3.6 at 12:11 am, magnitude 3.7 at 12:14 am and magnitude 3.8 at 2:27 am. There have been no major changes in seismic activity, according to the latest update on the website of the Icelandic Met Office.

Stable subsidence is seen on the GPS in the Bárðarbunga caldera.

The Department of Civil Protection and Emergency Management’s National Crisis Coordination Center’s status report from 12:30 yesterday afternoon included the following conclusions:

The eruptive activity at Holuhraun continues at similar intensity. The lava flows at slower rates than it did yesterday. The lava is now spreading more to the sides and there is less visible activity is in the eruptive craters.

The subsidence of the Bárðarbunga caldera continues and now measures 23 meters (76 feet).

Scientists flying over the area saw new tongues of lava breaking out from the main lava stream towards the east and west. The largest one of these lava tongues stretches towards the east and had become 300 m wide and 2 km long at 6 pm yesterday. An eruption cloud reaches 4 km (3 miles) in height but lowers with distance from the eruption site.

Seismic activity is similar to what it has been in the past days but earthquakes are starting to go down in numbers and magnitude. Over 60 earthquakes have been detected since midnight. Most of them have been by Bárðarbunga and the dike under Dyngjujökull.

High concentrations of sulfuric gases can be expected in Mývatnssveit, Kelduhverfi, Tjörnes, Húsavík, Aðaldalur and Reykjahverfi today.

People who feel discomfort are advised to stay indoors, close their windows, turn up the heat and turn off air conditioning, and use periods of good air quality to ventilate the house. Measurements of air quality can be found on the webpage loftgaedi.is. The Icelandic Met Office issues warnings on their webpage.

Information and any questions on air pollution can be sent to the Environment Agency of Iceland through the email gos@ust.is. The Environment Agency is especially looking for information from people who have been in contact with high concentrations of gas; where they were, at what time it happened, how the gas cloud looked (color and thickness of the cloud) and how they were affected by it. In the near future, there will be a page on the Icelandic Met Office's webpage for this type of information.

Gas emissions at the eruption site remain high. As local gas concentrations at the site can be life-threatening, people at the eruption site, scientists and media representatives, should wear gas masks and carry gas meters. At the eruption site, local wind anomalies can occur due to thermal convection from the hot lava. This makes the conditions on site extremely dangerous as winds can change suddenly and unpredictably.

Three scenarios are considered most likely:

- Subsidence of the Bárðarbunga caldera stops and the eruption on Holuhraun declines gradually.

- Large-scale subsidence of the caldera occurs, prolonging or strengthening the eruption in Holuhraun. In this situation, it is likely that the eruptive fissure would lengthen southwards under Dyngjujökull, resulting in a jökulhlaup (glacial outburst flood) and an ash-producing eruption. It is also possible that eruptive fissures could develop in another location under the glacier.

- Large-scale subsidence of the caldera occurs, causing an eruption at the edge of the caldera. Such an eruption would melt large quantities of ice, leading to a major jökulhlaup, accompanied by ash fall.

Other scenarios cannot be excluded.

maquiladora

Interesting to see a 5.2 earthquake this afternoon at 9.7 km and a 4.8 this morning at 9.2 km. Something else going on there apart from subsidence.

tomcosgrave

I feel this isn't quite done in the short term!

Pwindedd

If it could just hang on till after the 7th October that'd be lovely. Do what it likes then.

Very selfish of me I know, but i'm dying for me holliers. :-)

SeaBreezes

From another site (just cut and paste)

New interview today with volcanologist in the field Ármann Höskuldsson (no English translation yet), I just mention the most important information:
– situation similar as yesterday: eruption is waning
– main crater Baugur not very active anymore (was still rather active 2 days ago)
– just one crater north of it rather active with a lava lake in it
– one small new crater active between Baugur and Sudra
– eruption cloud does not go so high anymore
but: still very much inflow into the intrusion, so that this eruption will close up soon and another begin.
This is just the beginning of a longer process. And there is the possibility of an eruption under Dyngjujökull (where most of the quakes are now).
There is also the possibility that a lot of magma is accumulating under Bárdarbunga (which he believes).
http://www.mbl.is/frettir/innlent/2014/09/17/99_9_prosent_likur_a_odru_eldgosi/

Kencollins

Somebody is doing some repairs on the baroarbunga 2 cam right now, he has a nice leatherman!

http://www.livefromiceland.is/webcams/bardarbunga-2/

trmartin

The Icelandic Met Office reports today a 5.3 earthquake near Bardarbunga at 14.21 GMT

rickdangerouss

Source the IMO. Main points extracted

 The volcanic eruption in Holuhraun continues with similar rate as yesterday.
 The subsidence of the Bardarbunga caldera continues.
 Seismic activity has been rather intensive over the last 24 hours. Yesterday 13 earthquakes larger then M3,0 were
detected in Bardarbunga. The biggest was M5,2 at 18:09 last night. In total 7 earthquakes larger then M3,0 were
detected since noon yesterday. Smaller earthquakes were detected in Dyngjujokull glacier and in north part of the
dyke.
 GPS monitoring continue to show irregularity in in the crustal movements over the last few days. This sign could
indicate that the magma movement under Bardarbunga is changing.

The drop is ongoing and has slowed, some indications today that BB is getting restless.



http://en.vedur.is/about-imo/mission/

maquiladora

rickdangerouss wrote: »

The drop is ongoing and has slowed, some indications today that BB is getting restless.
http://en.vedur.is/about-imo/mission/

It looks to have speeded up at the moment though, half meter drop since 11am and still falling, noticeably faster than the previous 24 hours.

http://hraun.vedur.is/ja/Bardarb/BARC/

Will be interesting to see how long this goes on for.

Duiske

maquiladora wrote: »

Thats just steam rising from where the lava field from the fissure eruption has met a river. Bardarbunga is under a glacier, far off on the horizon, from the webcams point of view.

Has a new fissure opened at the foot of the hill the webcam is sited on ? I know the river is down there, and have seen the steam rising over the past week or so, but nothing like what is showing on the cam now. Webcam.

SeaBreezes

From jon frimann's site:

There are no earthquakes because the caldera is rising at the moment , more magma is flowing into Bárðarbunga volcano at the moment than is flowing out (pressure is increasing). This is a troubling sign, since current eruption at Holuhraun is not big enough eruption to keep up with the inflow of magma.
I am expecting new eruption somewhere in Bárðarbunga volcano system soon. How big that eruption is going to be is impossible to know.

fits

SeaBreezes wrote: »

From jon frimann's site:

There are no earthquakes because the caldera is rising at the moment , more magma is flowing into Bárðarbunga volcano at the moment than is flowing out (pressure is increasing). This is a troubling sign, since current eruption at Holuhraun is not big enough eruption to keep up with the inflow of magma.
I am expecting new eruption somewhere in Bárðarbunga volcano system soon. How big that eruption is going to be is impossible to know.

Not discounting what he says, but he does tend to go with worse case scenario, and sensationalise a bit...

maquiladora

fits wrote: »

Not discounting what he says, but he does tend to go with worse case scenario, and sensationalize a bit...

I've been following Jon's writings since 2010 and I actually find that he generally doesn't sensationalize or hype things up at all. I've never seen him write like this about Katla, Hekla or Grímsvötn etc.. I think this is actually a case where he honestly believes that a large eruption at the caldera is very likely to happen. Officially, that scenario is 1 of the 3 likely possibilities anyway.

yellowlabrador

I've also been following Jon since 2010 and I find him very sincere and dedicated.He wouldn't express his worries without checking the general feeling among volcanologists. .no one can know with any certainty as it's such a young science. this is an opportunity to learn more about Icelands' volcanoes. .

rickdangerouss

Jon's Website created allot or opinion's, the site is very "marmite" either you like the site or you do not.

What I understand is that Jon has contact with different official\semi official groups of people, some of this information finds its way on to the website. How much of this "information goes through the grape vine", I do not know.

This event is a once in a life time or could be 2 or three. Everyone is learning from it, including the professional's.
I understand that the 3 options from the IMO reports are weighted and the 1st one has the highest change, however it could be months, before this takes place.

The Caldera dropping is at around 24+ meters, wait for a quick drop of dozens if not 100's of meters, maybe then think of VEI time.

fits

All the volcanologists are gone to a conference this week anyway, so they must not be expecting anything to happen soon!

fits

maquiladora wrote: »

I've been following Jon's writings since 2010 and I actually find that he generally doesn't sensationalize or hype things up at all. I've never seen him write like this about Katla, Hekla or Grímsvötn etc.. I think this is actually a case where he honestly believes that a large eruption at the caldera is very likely to happen. Officially, that scenario is 1 of the 3 likely possibilities anyway.

I thought he had really hyped up a major eruption at hekla (or Katla) when eyjafjallajokull went up, but perhaps I am mistaking him for somebody else.

I was in Iceland this time last year and was sitting beside one of their meteorologists on a domestic flight across the middle of the country in clear skies. I pretty much got a guided tour of all the geological features from a guy who knew the place like the back of his hand. Best flight ever!

SeaBreezes

Interesting article on S02 emissions:

http://www.visir.is/iceland-releases-more-sulphur-than-all-of-europe-due-to-eruption/article/2014140929356

The One Doctor

SeaBreezes wrote: »

Interesting article on S02 emissions:

http://www.visir.is/iceland-releases-more-sulphur-than-all-of-europe-due-to-eruption/article/2014140929356

Interesting that Bardarbunga is now a VEI 5, comparable to the 79AD Vesuvius eruption.

Reckless Abandonment

The One Doctor wrote: »

Interesting that Bardarbunga is now a VEI 5, comparable to the 79AD Vesuvius eruption.

It's no where near a VEI 5, if It was we'd nearly be able to hear It.

tomcosgrave

Bardarbunga may be erupting - but it hasn't exploded yet.
It's not on the VEI scale, or if it is, it's a 1 - there's not enough tephra (ash, cinders bombs) ejected to place it any higher than that.

Duiske

tomcosgrave wrote: »

Bardarbunga may be erupting - but it hasn't exploded yet.
It's not on the VEI scale, or if it is, it's a 1 - there's not enough tephra (ash, cinders bombs) ejected to place it any higher than that.

On Wikipedia it states that the fissure eruption became VEI 4 on Sept 19th, but the citation given relates to this article on Iceland Review, which says nothing about the VEI scale. I understood, like you, that the scale was a combination of explosivity, the amount of debris ejected and the height of the ash plume. Whoever edited the Wikipedia article seems to be confusing volumes of lava with volumes of tephra.

rickdangerouss

These links might be able to answer some questions regarding, VEI Scaling.

My opinion, make a best guess now, but wait till this stops, could be years or could end up with a big bang. VEI has been reviewed with mixed opinions on both sides of the camp, is it of use or not?


http://geology.com/stories/13/volcanic-explosivity-index/

http://oregonexpat.wordpress.com/2010/04/23/volcanic-fallout-or-lets-talk-about-a-real-eruption/

tomcosgrave

I definitely think it is of use and that table is excellent.

The point with VEI and saying that such and such an eruption is on such and such a point of the scale is how explosive is it. And having refreences for each point, such as Vesuvious or Tambora or whatever is really helpful.

Duiske

rickdangerouss wrote: »

These links might be able to answer some questions regarding, VEI Scaling.

My opinion, make a best guess now, but wait till this stops, could be years or could end up with a big bang. VEI has been reviewed with mixed opinions on both sides of the camp, is it of use or not?

Looking at your chart, Kilauea is described as a VEI 0, despite producing over 3.5 cubic kilometres of Lava in its current long running eruption. If amounts of lava were the basis for applying VEI numbers, as some appear to be doing for the Holuhraun fissure eruption, then Kilauea could easily be described as VEI 5, which it clearly isn't. Must see if I can find a volcanologists blog where I can ask about it.

By the way, that second link you posted, about Mt. Mazama, is an excellent read. Cheers.

rickdangerouss

Duiske wrote: »

Looking at your chart, Kilauea is described as a VEI 0, despite producing over 3.5 cubic kilometres of Lava in its current long running eruption. If amounts of lava were the basis for applying VEI numbers, as some appear to be doing for the Holuhraun fissure eruption, then Kilauea could easily be described as VEI 5, which it clearly isn't. Must see if I can find a volcanologists blog where I can ask about it.

By the way, that second link you posted, about Mt. Mazama, is an excellent read. Cheers.

I read from this site sometimes, a number of volcanologists post there, also Eric is a assistant professor of Geosciences at Denison University. Twitter has a ton of them under #bardarbunga too.

http://www.wired.com/2014/09/when-a-giant-asteroid-impact-created-its-own-volcanoes-magma/

http://www.wired.com/2011/11/how-big-is-that-scale-and-rates-of-volcanic-eruptions/

http://www.wired.com/2013/07/revamping-the-volcanic-explosivity-index-or-tiny-eruptions-need-love-too/

Duiske

If you overlook the huge hole in the ground which is spewing out molten rock and noxious gas, it looks like a nice, crisp Autumn evening in Iceland.

tomcosgrave

Duiske wrote: »

If you overlook the huge hole in the ground which is spewing out molten rock and noxious gas, it looks like a nice, crisp Autumn evening in Iceland.

What are you on about? I can't see anything?

stooge

Any word on whats happening with Bardarbunga? Thread has gone slient and no new stories about the sinking of the crater or possible future eruptions. Has it all just fizzled out?

rickdangerouss

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stooge wrote: »

Any word on whats happening with Bardarbunga? Thread has gone slient and no new stories about the sinking of the crater or possible future eruptions. Has it all just fizzled out?

Nope, still ongoing. The drop in the caldera has slowed a small amount. 5+ quakes, not so many.

50KM+ field from the eruption. Possible new shield volcano getting created.
Biggest event in Iceland for over 100 years.

If the eruption will stay at this slowing down rate, ETA of 5-6 months before it stops. Thats an estimate.

The drop is around 40+ meters, I understand now. If you use 6 months time, as a point of stopping. The drop could be around 150+ meters in total.

BB could erupt before that point, bigger chance is when the drop stops, with a drop of 150 meters, plus new pressure build up.

illumin

Nat Geo article:

http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2014/10/141013-iceland-volcano-bardarbunga-lava-science/

RoisinD

Lots of increased activity over the past few hours. Don't know if it has any significance? http://baering.github.io/

Over the past few days there have a good few 4/5 quakes.

RoisinD

Live pictures looking pretty good just now
http://www.livefromiceland.is/webcams/bardarbunga

http://www.livefromiceland.is/webcams/bardarbunga-2/

Duiske

RoisinD wrote: »

Live pictures looking pretty good just now
http://www.livefromiceland.is/webcams/bardarbunga

http://www.livefromiceland.is/webcams/bardarbunga-2/

Just for a bit of perspective on the size of this eruption, the distance between the camera and the eruption site is the same as the straight-line distance between O'Connell Bridge in Dublin and Celbridge, Co Kildare. (a little over 18km's)