Ash to return before the end of next week

darkman2

Well our friend in Iceland continues to be angry spewing all sorts of stuff (primarily ash) into the atmosphere. So anyway the synoptic situation is going to change against us in Europe but, particularly Ireland and the UK, so be prepared for possible restrictions later next week.



Synoptic situation (forecast) by the end of next week.

Don't be scare mongering

As is common knowledge in the weather forum but not here.. those gfs charts a week out are notoriously fickle and subject to daily change.


Even the one you've posted shows a high over Iceland that wouldnt feed the ash into the northerly flow.
Thats a dynamic chart too.
In the link you posted the image will change often to something completely different 3 times a day.


Also even if there was a direct ash feed,and as I've said thats not anyway near certain...it has been established that it's mostly but not always very diluted by the time it gets here.
With the newly discovered standards where planes have been tested to fly in low ash levels-the disruption of last week is highly unlikely to be repeated on the same scale.

darkman2

Deleted User wrote: »

With the newly discovered standards where planes have been tested to fly in low ash levels-the disruption of last week is highly unlikely to be repeated on the same scale.

Oh no, of course not. But it is not inconceivable that some restrictions may have to be put in place by the end of the week, at least temporary. I don't agree that the GFS charts are subject to all that much change atm because every other model also has a North or Northwestery type flow toward the end of the week. You must bare in mind aswell that an anticyclonic flow is actually worse for ash then a cyclonic flow. In a cyclonic flow ash does arrive quicker but on the positive side precipitation will wash it out aswell. In an anticyclonic situation the flow is dry and stable. That's my opinion on it anyway. You may be right. Certainly something to watch though.

goat2

darkman2 wrote: »

Well our friend in Iceland continues to be angry spewing all sorts of stuff (primarily ash) into the atmosphere. So anyway the synoptic situation is going to change against us in Europe but, particularly Ireland and the UK, so be prepared for possible restrictions later next week.



Synoptic situation (forecast) by the end of next week.

how can they foretell that for shure
wind can change
volcano may die down a bit
no one know, it is a day to day thing
cannot predict natural events
they can fly in light ash now

darkman2

darkman2 wrote: »

Oh no, of course not. But it is not inconceivable that some restrictions may have to be put in place by the end of the week, at least temporary. I don't agree that the GFS charts are subject to all that much change atm because every other model also has a North or Northwestery type flow toward the end of the week. You must bare in mind aswell that an anticyclonic flow is actually worse for ash then a cyclonic flow. In a cyclonic flow ash does arrive quicker but on the positive side precipitation will wash it out aswell. In an anticyclonic situation the flow is dry and stable. That's my opinion on it anyway. You may be right. Certainly something to watch though.

No.
Those charts you have posted show an airflow source nowhere near the volcano and with a blocking high over the area of the volcano.

darkman2

Wrong. The flow is from the general location. Supprised your suggesting it is'nt. It clearly is.

No you are wrong.
The area of high pressure is over the volcano in that chart,it's airflow isn't moving very much..

The airflow coming down over Ireland is sourced hundreds of miles East of there [except for a slack flow that might eventually close all terminals in the aran islands international airport that hasn't been built yet]

Zaph

I think this is all a bit technical for this forum and is better suited in the weather forum.

Moved from Volcanic Ash Travel Help & Advice.

Su Campu

Whilst I do disagree with the title of the thread "Ash to return..." as if it is definite, I was keeping an eye out for such an event as my Dubai holiday has been rescheduled for Saturday, so I do have more than a passing interest in it!

The chart darkman posted does in fact show a direct feed from Iceland at 500hPa, but not at the surface. At 500hPa windflow will be along the isohypses (coloured contour lines), and this would be an important steering wind for ash, should Eyjafiasco still be emitting it. Here are the GFS 500hPa streamlines for Friday and Saturday 12Z, which are worrying me slightly at this point, as the ECMWF has a similar setup.

I'm telling ya, things better change before then or I'll be one raging bull! :mad:

Friday 12Z


Saturday 12

Su Campu

Here's the best flight footage I've seen of the volcano so far - any closer and they'd be in it!

http://www.liveleak.com/view?i=d97_1272209476

Deep Easterly

Su Campu wrote: »

The chart darkman posted does in fact show a direct feed from Iceland at 500hPa

I'm telling ya, things better change before then or I'll be one raging bull! :mad:

Yep, a 500hpa flow gives a good idea to where the high level clouds run to and from. BB is right that there is no direct surface flow from Iceland forecast, although DM is correct in saying that the models do look like bringing a direct flow at higher levels from that stunning island over Ireland. This is important as any further ash plumes could get caught up in the flow at higher levels and once gain drag them down to Europe. Something to keep an eye on anyways.

Hope you get the Dubai Su.

maquiladora

Iceland Met Office :

Conditions and assessment - 25 April 2010 22:30

The following is based on a status report issued collectively by IMO and the Institute of Earth Sciences at 18:00 this evening.

Conditions at eruption site: Overall activity similar as yesterday. Eruption seen from west in the morning - north crater still active. External water has not affected vent activity much since 18 April. Geologists' field observations (2-10 km from vents) show that explosivity is magmatic and that the tephra produced since 18 April is much coarser than during first four days. Explosions heard at Fljótshlíð, 10-15 km NW of vents. Meltwater discharge suggest similar lava activity. Processing of data obtained yesterday shows that lava had advanced 400-500 m northwards from crater, forming an ice depression extending some 700 m from vents.

Overall assessment: Magma flow rate has remained at similar level over the last few days while plume activity is slowly declining. Lava continues flowing towards north. No signs of melting or meltwater discharge towards south. No signs of termination of eruption.

Danno

Deleted User wrote: »

No you are wrong.
The area of high pressure is over the volcano in that chart,it's airflow isn't moving very much..

The airflow coming down over Ireland is sourced hundreds of miles East of there [except for a slack flow that might eventually close all terminals in the aran islands international airport that hasn't been built yet]

The RTE 6pm and 9.30pm weather forecasts yesterday (Sunday) showed N to NW winds sourced from Iceland... I instantly thought of the ash/disruption when I seen the chart.

Welsh Wizard

I'm flying over to London on Friday and returning next Monday..
Is ash going to be a problem, also whats the weather going to be like for the horse racing..?

Danno

Danno wrote: »

The RTE 6pm and 9.30pm weather forecasts yesterday (Sunday) showed N to NW winds sourced from Iceland... I instantly thought of the ash/disruption when I seen the chart.

Those would be ECM.
DM's were GFS and showed something slightly better from an ash avoiding point of view.

Mind you,the Volcano is spewing less ash now and to a lower height.
Given that it's been proven at this stage that air space was closed unnecessarily most of the time when the ash was thicker than it is now,I wouldn't be too concerned about flights later this week at all.

maquiladora

The latest...

Assessment - 26 April 2010 19:15

No visual observations at eruption site; no magma flow is visible. Radar images show continuous build-up of a tephra crater/cone in the northern ice cauldron; the diameter of the crater is 200 m and the height of the crater cone is 130-170 m. GPS observations are consistent with deflation of a magma reservoir beneath Eyjafjallajökull.

No measurable geophysical changes within the Katla volcano. Earthquake activity on the north-western edge of Vatnajökull is unconnected with the ongoing eruption.

Magma flow-rate and plume height has remained at similar levels during the last few days. Lava continues to flow northward. No signs of melting or meltwater discharge towards the south. There is no indication that the eruption is about to end; however, it is an order of magnitude smaller than in the first explosive phase.

The above is based on a status report issued collectively by IMO and the Institute of Earth Sciences at 18:00 this evening.

Measurements made in Europe last week, confirm the results of the dispersion models for ashfall. The Volcanic Ash Advisory Centre in London, VAAC, issues new graphics intended for flight traffic every few hours (see red link at top of page).

http://en.vedur.is/earthquakes-and-volcanism/articles/nr/1884

Kev.

So Darkmans a scaremonger then....

Pangea

http://eldgos.mila.is/eyjafjallajokull-fra-thorolfsfelli/

Looks like its still spewing ash ,
and the wind will be swinging our way this weekend.

Pangea

Check out this , another volcano went off in guatamala,

watch the video at the bottom of the page to see these guys standing on the crater while it erupts lol

http://www.examiner.com/x-33051-LA-Weather-Examiner~y2010m4d27-Another-eruption-Guatemalas-Santiaguito-Volcano-puts-an-unusual-and-violent-display-on-Monday

thecretinhop

Weather News
27 April 2010 - Volcanic Ash Advisory - Updated
The last of the volcanic ash cloud has finally cleared away from Irish airspace and is lying away to the north, between Iceland and Norway. The movement of weather systems for the coming days should be such as to keep the volcanic ash in that region, well away from Ireland. A south or southwest airflow is forecast to persist across Ireland through the weekend and for early next week, with some periods of rain (especially in the west).


:D get in there! second attempt at honeymoone flying out friday! looks good now

Redsunset

thecretinhop wrote: »

Weather News
27 April 2010 - Volcanic Ash Advisory - Updated
The last of the volcanic ash cloud has finally cleared away from Irish airspace and is lying away to the north, between Iceland and Norway. The movement of weather systems for the coming days should be such as to keep the volcanic ash in that region, well away from Ireland. A south or southwest airflow is forecast to persist across Ireland through the weekend and for early next week, with some periods of rain (especially in the west).


:D get in there! second attempt at honeymoone flying out friday! looks good now

That forecast can not be correct,Where's these south west winds going to come from?

I will add though that you have nothing to worry about,you will be flying on friday,winds turn more northerly from saturday as per my charts

And here's a snip from Met Eireann forecast

Then for the the weekend it gets cooler still as the temperatures drop back further and the winds go to a more northerly direction

thecretinhop

http://www.met.ie/


yeah looks good for friday, although even saturday the ash would want to be a lot higher and the restrictions are much more lax now, to be honest im not that bothered if i get stuck in SA, just want to get there, married as well know after going out over a decade, im very good at patience;)

Pangea

Looks like Met eireann has conflicting forecasts
Maybe anti snow Gerry murphy wrote the south west part and eagleton wrote the northerly part
Forecast 1
A south or southwest airflow is forecast to persist across Ireland through the weekend and for early next week, with some periods of rain (especially in the west).
Forecast 2
Then for the the weekend it gets cooler still as the temperatures drop back further and the winds go to a more northerly direction;

nacho libre

Pangea wrote: »

Looks like Met eireann has conflicting forecasts
Maybe anti snow Gerry murphy wrote the south west part and eagleton wrote the northerly part
Forecast 1
A south or southwest airflow is forecast to persist across Ireland through the weekend and for early next week, with some periods of rain (especially in the west).
Forecast 2
Then for the the weekend it gets cooler still as the temperatures drop back further and the winds go to a more northerly direction;

anti- snow.. lol
your comment made me think of the doctored pictured, during the big freeze, depicting Jerry with a big smile on his face as he made his way to work through the snow:D

Su Campu

Looking good for my flights this evening - unless thunderstorms stop play! :rolleyes:

The latest VAAC chart though does have the low level ash cloud approaching northwestern Scotland tonight, and with steering winds still strong tomorrow, I wonder what will happen Scottish airspace. I assume the red line on the charts now shows the new tolerances?

Anyway, it's over 40°C where I'm heading so I don't give a sh*t what it does here!

jprboy

Enjoy the honeymoon, Su.

And thanks for all your informative and interesting posts since I first discovered this forum in Dec 09/Jan 10.

One thing though, the forecast for where you're headed contains the following:
"...Slight to moderate winds, freshening at times by afternoon, causing blowing dust/sand over the internal openlands...." :eek:

Potentially going from the ash pit to the dust bowl...... but hopefully not.

We were in Dubai for the last few days of our honeymoon in July 07. Amazing experience out in middle of desert one night watching sunset.

Su Campu

jprboy wrote: »

Enjoy the honeymoon, Su.

And thanks for all your informative and interesting posts since I first discovered this forum in Dec 09/Jan 10.

One thing though, the forecast for where you're headed contains the following:
"...Slight to moderate winds, freshening at times by afternoon, causing blowing dust/sand over the internal openlands...." :eek:

Potentially going from the ash pit to the dust bowl...... but hopefully not.

We were in Dubai for the last few days of our honeymoon in July 07. Amazing experience out in middle of desert one night watching sunset.

Well the honeymoon was 8 years ago - this is just a holiday, but thanks anyway! We're doing the sundowner trip Tuesday. I did it in 2008 and it was great, though it was during Ramadan so there were no bellydancers! :rolleyes:

Duststorms are a regular occurrence there this time of the year. But as long as the planes keep flying I don't care! Abu Dhabi's TAF gives zero vertical visibility in SandStorms!

OMAA 010500Z 0106/0212 19005KT CAVOK
BECMG 0108/0110 35016KT
TEMPO 0109/0114 33020KT 2000 BLDU NSC
PROB30 0109/0112 33025G35KT 0500 SS VV///
BECMG 0116/0118 04008KT

jprboy

Well the honeymoon was 8 years ago - this is just a holiday, but thanks anyway!

Oops, confused you with another poster........

Posted by thecretinhop on 27-04-10
get in there! second attempt at honeymoone flying out friday! looks good now

jprboy

Posted by Su Campu 01-05-10 11.47
Well the honeymoon was 8 years ago - this is just a holiday, but thanks anyway!

Oops, confused you with another poster........

Posted by thecretinhop on 27-04-10
get in there! second attempt at honeymoone flying out friday! looks good now[/QUOTE]

maquiladora

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/aviation/vaac/data/VAG_1272713445.png

Getting close to us again. :mad:

nacho libre

maquiladora wrote: »

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/aviation/vaac/data/VAG_1272713445.png

Getting close to us again. :mad:

well given the airflow over us is unstable at the moment and the new guidelines set down for save aviation we should ok if it comes over us again