May 2010 boards forecast contest

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DOCARCH wrote: »

Min temperature yesterday at Casement was -2.0c. This is great news!

M.T. Cranium on the button :eek:

Joe Public

DOCARCH wrote: »

Min temperature yesterday at Casement was -2.0c. This is great news!

Even better for MTC

DOCARCH

Joe Public wrote: »

Even better for MTC

Oh yeah - see that now! Good for MT. I just need a -2.1c somewhere/sometime.

mike65

March.

pauldry

Excuse me if Im wrong but the calculation of the means Im getting up to 12th May for the Mean temp for May for the 5 stations is 8.38c

Thats fierce low

M.T. Cranium

I think you're right, looks like it should now start a slow rise towards perhaps 10 C by the end of next week.

Deep Easterly

pauldry wrote: »

Excuse me if Im wrong but the calculation of the means Im getting up to 12th May for the Mean temp for May for the 5 stations is 8.38c

Thats fierce low

T'was indeed, but as M.T predicted, a rise, albeit a slow one, started yesterday. There should be quite a boost in the mean temp by this time next week.

M.T. Cranium

Update of the monthly values through first 14 days ...

mean temp 8.5 C

rainfall 56% of normal

sunshine 111% of normal

pauldry

I think everyone can do with the mean going up a bit.

Surprised the rain is so high(low) . here in Sligo theres been very little

Deep Easterly

pauldry wrote: »

I think everyone can do with the mean going up a bit.

Surprised the rain is so high(low) . here in Sligo theres been very little

Same here. Rainfall total so far this May here is still below 10mm :eek:. The East is actually wetter so far this month. Something isn't right!

Current combined mean value of the five Met Eireann stations standing at 8.6c as of midnight last so rising nicely at last. Quick chart showing monthly progress up to the 15th:




Regarding the annual mean, we are currently on 5.16c, which is around 1.10c below the 61-90 norm.


Daily Mean Maxima chart for the month of May at stations at Birr, Galway and Dublin:


(Galway values based on 65-94 daily average)

April's chill extending into the opening days of the month, but warming up nicely towards the end as it ascends into summer




Forecast chart for the coming midweek period:



A mild, moist & humid SSW flow becoming established over Ireland as pressure builds from the SW. Should feel a lot more pleasant than last week despite being breezy and drizzly at times although humidity levels are expected to fall towards the end of the coming week.

Great growing weather really!


Data Courtesy of Met Eireann

mp22

12 deg,light westerly wind,good sunny spells

pauldry

Great Charts DP thanks.

Cloudier picture could ruin the mean rise potential daywise but nightimes being warm will help it considerably. rainfall will be well below normal for the month it would seem and sunshine , well prob above in East and near or below in the West.

pauldry

5 Station Mean is now at 8.92 . therel have to be a major heatwave for consensus to be reached surely.

Deep Easterly

pauldry wrote: »

5 Station Mean is now at 8.92 . therel have to be a major heatwave for consensus to be reached surely.

For sure. I think the average temp at least has a good chance of being reached, if not surpassed before the month is out though. Hard one to call though at this early stage.

thetonynator

Anyone know what the max temp so far is??? Although it wil prob be surpassed before next weekend . . .

pauldry

well it were 19.2 in Malin Head yesterday and over 20 in lots of places today. think by end of weekend 24 will have been passed. I predicted 23 to be the tops but that surely will be passed:(

thetonynator

I know, i said 22 . . .

DOCARCH

Highs yesterday (21st):

Gurteen 24.4c
Shannon AP 24.3c
Oak Park 23.7c
Mullingar 23.7c
Ballyhaise 23.1c

M.T. Cranium

Monthly mean for the five stations without a name ... 9.7 C through 20th
estimate 10.4 through 24th.

Then ??? hold steady, fall back slightly ... everyone still in the game, it would seem.

Deep Easterly

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

Monthly mean for the five stations without a name ... 9.7 C through 20th
estimate 10.4 through 24th.

Then ??? hold steady, fall back slightly ... everyone still in the game, it would seem.

A jump of 0.5c yesterday alone. :eek: At this stage of the month last year, the value was on 10.1c, with a real sharp rise towards the closing days.

pauldry

10.5 would seem to be closer to what the figure will end at for May , I have 10.9c this is in the hope of 2 more bonus hot days before the end of MAy apart from tomorrow. 11.1c consensus still looks hard to reach doesnt it:rolleyes:

M.T. Cranium

Updates ...

Highest on 22nd was 25.2 C at Shannon, Su Campu is now closest to this at 25.5 while Redsunset is covered to 26.0 C.

Meanwhile for the bonus question, Oak Park recorded 24.0 C.

The three closest (first was the only one higher than this reading)

Redsunset 25.5
John Mac 22.3
Hellboy99 21.0

Scores for the bonus will run from 10,9,8 for these three down to one point for 10th place. You'll see those at the end of the month.

So congrats to those three.

thetonynator

12 people ahead of me . . .thats not good

Deep Easterly

Current 5 Station mean for May on 10.3c, which is a little above average for the period 1st to 22nd of May. A further rise in this value is expected over the next few days. (come on 11.1c! )

Annual mean value for the five met eireann stations presently on 5.51c, which is around 1.0c below the 61-90 norm for the period, but this anomally likely to close in further over the next 7 days.

Annual combined rainfall % mean for the 5 stations up to the 22nd May is just 68.4% of the expected 61-90 total :eek:. At this stage last year, which was also quite dry, the value was on 94.9% of average, but this figure did rise quite substantially from July 09 onwards


Outlook for the coming mid-week period:


A very gradual return to near normal temps expected as Ireland lies once again between high pressure to the NW and lowering pressure to the south. Best chance of rainfall in the 2nd half of the week, but a lot of uncertainty in the models over the last couple of days regarding this as that high pressure zone to the NW seems very reluctant to shift its influence.

Data Source: Met Eireann

M.T. Cranium

This is an estimated update through today's sunshine, drought and warmth ...

rainfall (all stations) 50%

sunshine (all stations) 110%

Basically, the rainfall has continued to drift downwards all month since a rather wet first week. The sunshine has oscillated around 105%, at some point last week after a few dull days it was back to 100% and now it has recovered to where it was after 14 days.

My estimate of the finishing values based on today's model runs:

temp 10.7

rainfall 60%

sunshine 113%

we'll see, the sunshine is quite uncertain because it's based on only six stations and so if one of them gets unusual long spells of cloud or sun on a given day, it can throw off the estimates even if they are generally right for the country. The precip is based on a much wider net of 12 stations. Some have asked me what difference it might make if we predicted temps on that all-Ireland basis. My guess is, not a lot, because you would have cold Ballyhaise and warm Valentia thrown into the larger sample, Dublin tends to be middling, Malin Head more likely to be cool than warm, and then you're just adding Cork, Johnstown Castle and Gurteen which tend to be maybe a bit warmer than our average. So my guess is that in the winter the all-Ireland average would be higher but in the summer, maybe about the same or a bit cooler. The range of differences would be about 0.5 C. Any thoughts? I like the five-station concept because it's relatively easy to update and monitor, without losing much overall accuracy. But we need a name for it, I've given it a bit of thought without any results. DE, what's your last name, maybe we should call it the DE Index.

Deep Easterly

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

maybe we should call it the DE Index.

No need Plenty of choice on the other thread regarding names for the index. I have one judge confirmed to help pick out the top five that will be put up for public vote. I will be another judge and I am still very much in hope that you will confirm to be the 3rd one M.T. You have kept the competition alive and successful since it started and it would not be right if you had absolutely no input into what the name of the "5 station mean" would be.

I'll beg if I have too.

M.T. Cranium

Sure, I can be one of three judges, that's no problem.

Just wondering about June now, what's a good event taking place on the weekend of 5-6 June possibly, so we can have a more reality-based bonus question that will test the medium-range forecasting skills?

(added later) ... Just noticed that the monthly max has now risen to 25.6 C (Oak Park 23rd).

jd

That's the Bank Holiday weekend..

4th and 5th June Tramore Races Waterford
4th to 7th June - Docklands Maritime Festival Dublin
5th June – Westlife concert live at Croke Park Dublin
5th June – Ocean to City Race – An Rás Mór – Cork City
5th & 6th June- Strongman Challenge League in Limerick
7th June – Cork City Marathon Cork

M.T. Cranium

Okay, thanks jd, I will perhaps think up a question for Cork on 7th since we haven't visited there for our bonus round. It's good to let me know about bank holidays because I sometimes hear there is one coming up and not sure which weekend it is. Today's a "bank holiday" here for us.

Deep Easterly

Regarding the mean, we are on 10.7c, at the moment. Likely to hover around this value or fall slightly towards the month's end. Either way, May looks like finishing close to average this year regarding temps.