May 2010 boards forecast contest

pauldry

Yeah, Im set for a hopeless month ... prob last.. but close enough with temp bt so is every1 else. I notice everyone is predicting a warm June this year. Shall I tell my mates?:cool:

Speak Now

pauldry wrote: »

Yeah, Im set for a hopeless month ... prob last.. but close enough with temp bt so is every1 else. I notice everyone is predicting a warm June this year. Shall I tell my mates?:cool:

Don't insult me my friend, if you want to see hopeless look at my forecast

pauldry

Jerry Seinfeld wrote: »

Don't insult me my friend, if you want to see hopeless look at my forecast

Ah Jerry what were you thinking? (Only joking)

This is harder than it looks isnt it:(

Speak Now

pauldry wrote: »

Ah Jerry what were you thinking? (Only joking)

This is harder than it looks isnt it:(

Yeah i'm more of a coldie, much better during the darker months

Deep Easterly

Still on 10.7c (well, 10.65c to be nerdy about it ) as of today, so little movement over the last few days. Hard to say will stagnate at this figure for the last few days of the month or fall or rise.

nacho libre

Deep Easterly wrote: »

Still on 10.7c (well, 10.65c to be nerdy about it ) as of today, so little movement over the last few days. Hard to say will stagnate at this figure for the last few days of the month or fall or rise.

i hope it does stagnate;)

Deep Easterly

nacho libre wrote: »

i hope it does stagnate;)

M.T. Cranium

I think it's probably locked into the range 10.6 to 10.9 now. Just consider this, a five degree daily departure fom running mean will have the following impacts after n days:

1 ... 2.5 deg
2 ... 1.7 deg
3 ... 1.3 deg

10 .. 0.5 deg
15 .. 0.3 deg
20 .. 0.2 deg

28 .. 0.2 deg
30 .. 0.2 deg

Notice how this flattens out after 15 days, if you used two decimal places it would flatten from 0.31 deg after 15 days (on the 16th day in other words) to 0.16 deg after 30 days (on the 31st).

At this time in the month, it's difficult to shift an established average more than about 0.3 deg unless you get a real record-breaking spell of some kind.

Rainfall on the other hand, as we saw in December, can go from 50% to 100% after one day's steady downpour.

Sunshine is almost as conservative as temperature on a daily basis, but a totally clear day can push the running percentage up by about 5 near the end of a month, especially in a cloudy month.

Deep Easterly

Down to 10.6c today, but has probably bottomed out. As M.T notes, there is a good chance the final figure will finish within the the 10.7c-10.9c range.

Deep Easterly

Combined 5 Met Eireann station mean for May back up to 10.7c up to midnight last. May rise even further over the last couple of days but I can't see 11.1c being reached. :mad::pac:

Here's how the trend is doing so far, with the 2009 mean trend thrown in for comparrison:



How the mean max & mean min are doing at our 5 met stations for the month of May so far:




Onto the annual mean, and current value for the 5 stations in on 5.88c, which is 0.9c below normal for the period; closing in slowly but surely.


Outlook for the coming mid-week period:



Ireland forecast to lie between low pressure south of Iceland and a building ridge from the south. Fair weather the predominant feature but with always the potential for occasional skirting fronts brusing up against the country now and again as the week goes on. Daytime temps are forecast to be close to or a little above average throughout with winds hardly likely to be a major feature at any stage.

Data Courtasy of Met Eireann
Outlook Chart Courtasy of Meteo.si

pauldry

The temp for the end of the month looks to be around the 10.7c mark.

The rainfall increased a few percentages on 31st but still below normal and less than half of normal n the West.

Sunshine will be well above normal for the month. 130%?

These are estimates, the REAL figures have yet to come in

Deep Easterly

Final 5 station mean finished on 10.8c, 0.4c above average. Mean maxima was 0.8c above normal, while mean minima was 0.2c below normal overall.

Not part of the comp but rainfall at within the 5 station zone was below normal with a mean figure of just 67% of normal. Shannon Apt and Oak Park were the wettest stations while Claremorris was the driest by a long shot, reflecting just how dry it has been in Connacht this year so far. :eek:

M.T will have all the other relevant stats later on.

M.T. Cranium

Okay then, confirming 10.8 as the mean temp, 25.6 as the max, -2.0 for the minimum, and also ...

69% of average for the rainfall (not much different from the five stations) and

115% of average for the sunshine hours.

Will do some scoring later as it is all of 0530 here, just taking a quick look in.

Scoring will appear in the annual scoring thread, probably about 6 p.m.

pauldry

Its OK MTC .

You can go back to sleep. I know how badly I did.:)

Still theres always June

Thanks for all the hard work

M.T. Cranium

Now more fully awake, so congrats to the Tonynator for hitting the monthly mean of 10.8 C.