Nic's Footy Picks

ValueSeeker

Continued from thread: " Football Tips From The Pro"

Bets will be mainly from the goal index, corners and goalscorer markets (fixed odds). Selections I see value in - some longshots, some shorter prices.

(Unit/pts scale 1-5, % = my estimated approx win expectation of value bet)

Picks so far:

ValueSeeker wrote: »

Man City v Aston Villa

Must win game for Villa if they want 4th spot meaning they will have to come out and attack. Seeing as they play with no real defensive midfielder, this could severly open up the game. Add the pace of Bellamy, Tevez, Agbonlahor, Carew and the likes and we could see some goals today. I fancy Tevez (who could be playing as the focal point of attack due to a thigh injury worry for Adebayor) to take advantage of this space and continue his fantastic goal scoring run and stay in the chase for the Top scorer award.

Selections offering value (unit scale 1-5, % = my estimated approx win exp)

-1.75pts Carlos Tevez anytime scorer @ 2.58 (Betfair), 55%
- 3pts over 2.5 goals @ 1.87 (Betfair), 65-70%

Bet 1 = win (1 goal, pen)
Bet 2 = win (3:1)

ValueSeeker wrote: »

Villarreal v Barcelona

Villarreal of late have been playing avery offensive game, pushing their line up and often playing all 3 of Nilmar, Rossi and Llorente from the start. Barcelona play the same type of game and will leave a lot of space in behind. If Rossi starts, expect him to break the offside and maybe find himself with a 1 on 1 at some stage. For me, 16/5 represents big value on a Rossi goal tonight.

Selection offering value: (unit scale 1-5, % = my estimated win expectation)
Bet: 1.25pts Rossi anytime scorer @ 16/5 (Bwin), 40%

Bet = Lose (no goal)

ValueSeeker wrote: »

Sevilla v Atletico

Dress rehearsal for the big Spanish cup final although Flores has said he may rest some big players. That may mean starts for Salvio(Fresh off a brace last weekend) or Ibrahima, either of whom are well capable of scoring against a likely to be unproteced Sevilla defense. Sevilla have reverted to their old attacking style since Jiminez got the chop and I can see this one being open and having a few goals with Sevilla pushing for the CL spot.

Selection offering value (unit scale 1-5, % = my estimated win exp)

2.75pts goal line over 2.75 @ 1.81 (betdaq)

Bet = Win (3:1)


Record so far:

Total Staked: 8.75pts | Total Returned: 15.11pts | Profit: +6.36pts

ValueSeeker

NOTE: For the records in this thread, all 'anytime goalscorer' goal scorer selections that do not start, will be deemed non runners, whether they are with a firm that automatically void non starters or a firm that rob your money

ValueSeeker

Manchester City v Spurs

A must win game for City tomorrow night meaning an offensive approach. This means possible space in behind their defense, space which can be exploited by an on fire and lightning quick Bale and possibly Aaron Lennon starting on the other side. They should create chances for Jermain Defoe who will face Martin Fulop (brought in as cover for Given) who looked extremely nervous at the weekend. 11/5 is good value on a goal for Defoe.

Selection offering value:

1.5pts Jermaine Defoe anytime scorer @ 11/5 (coral), 40-45%

ValueSeeker

ValueSeeker wrote: »

Manchester City v Spurs

A must win game for City tomorrow night meaning an offensive approach. This means possible space in behind their defense, space which can be exploited by an on fire and lightning quick Bale and possibly Aaron Lennon starting on the other side. They should create chances for Jermain Defoe who will face Martin Fulop (brought in as cover for Given) who looked extremely nervous at the weekend. 11/5 is good value on a goal for Defoe.

Selection offering value:

1.5pts Jermaine Defoe anytime scorer @ 11/5 (coral), 40-45%

Bet = Lose

ValueSeeker

Sevilla v Barcelona

Both managers have said they will be out to attack and get all 3 points in what is potentially 1 of the games of the Spanish season. Both need 3 points to keep their goals in their own hands (Sevilla for the CL, Barca for the league). Sevilla are back to their attacking Style under their new coach and Barca always put emphasis on attack. Should be an open game. Fabiano tipped to feature after injury.

Bet offering value

2.25pts over 3.5 goals @ 5/4 (Exchanges)

ValueSeeker

ValueSeeker wrote: »

Sevilla v Barcelona

Both managers have said they will be out to attack and get all 3 points in what is potentially 1 of the games of the Spanish season. Both need 3 points to keep their goals in their own hands (Sevilla for the CL, Barca for the league). Sevilla are back to their attacking Style under their new coach and Barca always put emphasis on attack. Should be an open game. Fabiano tipped to feature after injury.

Bet offering value

2.25pts over 3.5 goals @ 5/4 (Exchanges)

Bet = Win (2:3)

ValueSeeker

Westham v Man City

Carlton Cole will be eager to impress the England manager today in what will be his last chance before the England Squald is announced for the upcoming friendly and a whopping 11/4 on skybet is seriously value to do just that. when Cole starts at Upton Park, he always seems to score, no matter who the opposition are and today, against a deflated Man City, it would hardly be surprising to see him do the same.

Bet offering value:

1.5pts Carlton cole anytime scorer @ 11/4 (Skybet), 50%

Vurnon San Benito

Not bad so far, a little tip though, not regards your selections but about your website. It needs serious sorting mate Switch to WordPress.

ValueSeeker

ValueSeeker wrote: »

Westham v Man City

Carlton Cole will be eager to impress the England manager today in what will be his last chance before the England Squald is announced for the upcoming friendly and a whopping 11/4 on skybet is seriously value to do just that. when Cole starts at Upton Park, he always seems to score, no matter who the opposition are and today, against a deflated Man City, it would hardly be surprising to see him do the same.

Bet offering value:

1.5pts Carlton cole anytime scorer @ 11/4 (Skybet), 50%

Bet = Lose

ValueSeeker

Record so far:

Total Staked: 14pts | Total Returned: 20.17pts | Profit: +6.17pts

ValueSeeker

Atletico v Sevilla (Copa Del Rey)

A final maybe but I expect to see an open game. La Liga games between the 2 are usually frantic end to end games. Both are weak at the back, place the emphasis on attack and with a likely open game and the firepower of Forlan, Aguero, Fabiano and Kanoute amongst others 11/10 is a great price for me on the overs.

Selection offering value

3.5pts over 2.5 goals @ 11/10 (VC), 70-75%

ValueSeeker

To the big hitting traders, the above selection may be a good opportunity. Currently 2.11 on betdaq

ForzaKid

ValueSeeker wrote: »

Atletico v Sevilla (Copa Del Rey)

A final maybe but I expect to see an open game. La Liga games between the 2 are usually frantic end to end games. Both are weak at the back, place the emphasis on attack and with a likely open game and the firepower of Forlan, Aguero, Fabiano and Kanoute amongst others 11/10 is a great price for me on the overs.

Selection offering value

3.5pts over 2.5 goals @ 11/10 (VC), 70-75%

Cheers mate,Put 25 on that myself!!

ValueSeeker

ValueSeeker wrote: »

To the big hitting traders, the above selection may be a good opportunity. Currently 2.11 on betdaq

Currently 1.91

ValueSeeker

ValueSeeker wrote: »

Atletico v Sevilla (Copa Del Rey)

A final maybe but I expect to see an open game. La Liga games between the 2 are usually frantic end to end games. Both are weak at the back, place the emphasis on attack and with a likely open game and the firepower of Forlan, Aguero, Fabiano and Kanoute amongst others 11/10 is a great price for me on the overs.

Selection offering value

3.5pts over 2.5 goals @ 11/10 (VC), 70-75%

Bet = Lose (0:2)

ValueSeeker

Inter vs Bayern

I fancy Diego Milito as a real danger man to Bayern in this 1. He will play on the shoulder of the slow central defenders and with Sneijder, Eto and Pandev supplying the ammo, I fancy Milito will get a handful of really good chances in this game.

Selections offering value

2pts Diego Milito anytime scorer @ 7/4 (Paddypower) | 0.5 pts Diego Milito brace @ 11/1 (paddypower)

ValueSeeker

ValueSeeker wrote: »

Inter vs Bayern

I fancy Diego Milito as a real danger man to Bayern in this 1. He will play on the shoulder of the slow central defenders and with Sneijder, Eto and Pandev supplying the ammo, I fancy Milito will get a handful of really good chances in this game.

Selections offering value

2pts Diego Milito anytime scorer @ 7/4 (Paddypower) | 0.5 pts Diego Milito brace @ 11/1 (paddypower)

Bet(s) = Win

Verance

Good stuff again, ValueSeeker.

x PyRo

The man's a machine. Well done again.

Vurnon San Benito

Brilliant brace bet.

Just spruce the website up

ValueSeeker

Cheers lads, makes up for a bad weekend in the golf betting.

It's not a website mate, it's just a blog I threw together with little or no knowledge of web design.

Vurnon San Benito

ValueSeeker wrote: »

Cheers lads, makes up for a bad weekend in the golf betting.

It's not a website mate, it's just a blog I threw together with little or no knowledge of web design.

I know man, all I'm saying is, if you spruce it up a bit it could be a serious site because you have the most importing thing, good tips.
Just telling ya, could make you a bit of dosh from advertising deals if ya set it up right, especially with the World Cup coming up.

ValueSeeker

Total Staked: 20pts | Total Returned: 31.67pts| Profit: + 11.67pts

Verance

ValueSeeker wrote: »

Total Staked: 20pts | Total Returned: 31.67pts| Profit: + 11.67pts

I think I'll start following

ValueSeeker

Very early but I expect these prices to come in:

South Africa V Mexico
Compiler opinion seems to be thatthis match will be a very low scoring 1. They always side with the unders early in big international tournaments simply because they don't know what to expect. For me, it's more likely to be pretty open with chances than an edgy affair. Just too much attacking talent on show with the likes of Giovanno, Vela and Piennar the creators and neither defense is too great. Some books are offering great value in 13/8 on over 2.5 goals but I'll go for a safer bet..

Selection Offering Value:
3.25pts Goal line over 1.75 @ 1.72 (Betdaq)


Holland V Denmark
A group that promises plenty of goals IMO. The Dutch are notoriously weak at the back and Denmark pose a serious goal threat. Their squad includes big direct strikers such as Tomasson and Bendtner and they have the likes of the pacey wingers, Gronkjaer and Rommendahl to feed them if they choose. The attacking threat for the Dutch is 1 of the most potent in the tournament. Look out for Sneijder and Robben to feed Van Persie. Anything odds against on the over 2.5 represents a great value bet IMO.

Selection Offeing Value:
3pts over 2.5 goals @ 2.18 (Betfair)

ValueSeeker

Doocey wrote: »

I know man, all I'm saying is, if you spruce it up a bit it could be a serious site because you have the most importing thing, good tips.
Just telling ya, could make you a bit of dosh from advertising deals if ya set it up right, especially with the World Cup coming up.

New theme on my blog now. All done myself so still far from fantastic. Appreciate any feedback (good and bad).

ValueSeeker

South Africa V Mexico
Most books are less than 2/1 on Javier Hernandez anytime scorer but Bet365 are way overpriced for a young striker full of confidence after 3 goals in his last 3 friendlies and a move to Manchester upcoming. South Africa are loose at the back and expect the likes of Vela and Giovanni to create chances for him if they all start.

Selection offering value
1.5pts Javier Hernandez anytime scorer @ 12/5 (Bet 365), 40-45%

ValueSeeker

ValueSeeker wrote: »

Very early but I expect these prices to come in:

South Africa V Mexico
Compiler opinion seems to be thatthis match will be a very low scoring 1. They always side with the unders early in big international tournaments simply because they don't know what to expect. For me, it's more likely to be pretty open with chances than an edgy affair. Just too much attacking talent on show with the likes of Giovanno, Vela and Piennar the creators and neither defense is too great. Some books are offering great value in 13/8 on over 2.5 goals but I'll go for a safer bet..

Selection Offering Value:
3.25pts Goal line over 1.75 @ 1.72 (Betdaq)

Bet = Win (x 1/2)

ValueSeeker

ValueSeeker wrote: »

South Africa V Mexico
Most books are less than 2/1 on Javier Hernandez anytime scorer but Bet365 are way overpriced for a young striker full of confidence after 3 goals in his last 3 friendlies and a move to Manchester upcoming. South Africa are loose at the back and expect the likes of Vela and Giovanni to create chances for him if they all start.

Selection offering value
1.5pts Javier Hernandez anytime scorer @ 12/5 (Bet 365), 40-45%

Non Starter

ValueSeeker

Record So Far

Total Staked: 23.25pts | Total Returned: 36.09pts| Profit: + 12.84pts

ValueSeeker

Germany v Australia

You'd have to fancy the Germans pretty strongly to beat the Aussies and the danger men in my eyes are Mesut Ozil (the supplier) and Miroslav Klose (the finisher). Ozil is tipped to be a superstar and Klose excels every time he puts on the white shirt. Piotr Trochowski (if he starts) is priced up at 50/1 on paddypower to be the main man and I can't ignore that either .

Selections offering value

0.5pts Miroslav Klose man of the match @ 7/1 (Bet365)
0.5pts Mesut Ozil man of the match @ 9/1 (Bet365)
0.5pts Piotr Trowchoski man of the match @ 50/1 (Paddypower)

Result decided by the budweiser fan vote man of the match on Fifa.com site