Nic's Footy Picks

ValueSeeker

ValueSeeker wrote: »

Germany v Australia

You'd have to fancy the Germans pretty strongly to beat the Aussies and the danger men in my eyes are Mesut Ozil (the supplier) and Miroslav Klose (the finisher). Ozil is tipped to be a superstar and Klose excels every time he puts on the white shirt. Piotr Trochowski (if he starts) is priced up at 50/1 on paddypower to be the main man and I can't ignore that either .

Selections offering value

0.5pts Miroslav Klose man of the match @ 7/1 (Bet365)
0.5pts Mesut Ozil man of the match @ 9/1 (Bet365)
0.5pts Piotr Trowchoski man of the match @ 50/1 (Paddypower) VOID

Result decided by the budweiser fan vote man of the match on Fifa.com site

Bet(s) = Lose (fan vote)

ValueSeeker

Holland v Denmark

I'd expect the Dutch to hit the ground running and Van Persie is the man on top of his form. Everyone fancies him in this tournament and he's been cut to 10's for the golden boot from as big as 50's. There isn't any value in backing him to score tomorrow but PP are currently(won't last) 9/2 on him picking up the man of the match award and that's a great bet for me. He can feed off the brilliance of Van Der Vaart and Sneijder.

Selection Offering Value

1pt Robin Van Persie Man Of The Match @ 9/2 (Paddypower)

Full Preview

ValueSeeker

ValueSeeker wrote: »

Holland V Denmark
A group that promises plenty of goals IMO. The Dutch are notoriously weak at the back and Denmark pose a serious goal threat. Their squad includes big direct strikers such as Tomasson and Bendtner and they have the likes of the pacey wingers, Gronkjaer and Rommendahl to feed them if they choose. The attacking threat for the Dutch is 1 of the most potent in the tournament. Look out for Sneijder and Robben to feed Van Persie. Anything odds against on the over 2.5 represents a great value bet IMO.

Selection Offering Value:
3pts over 2.5 goals @ 2.18 (Betfair)

Bet = lose

ValueSeeker wrote: »

Holland v Denmark

I'd expect the Dutch to hit the ground running and Van Persie is the man on top of his form. Everyone fancies him in this tournament and he's been cut to 10's for the golden boot from as big as 50's. There isn't any value in backing him to score tomorrow but PP are currently(won't last) 9/2 on him picking up the man of the match award and that's a great bet for me. He can feed off the brilliance of Van Der Vaart and Sneijder.

Selection Offering Value

1pt Robin Van Persie Man Of The Match @ 9/2 (Paddypower)

Bet = Lose


Record So Far

Total Staked: 28.25pts | Total Returned: 36.09pts| Profit: + 7.84pts

ValueSeeker

Brazil v North Korea

A lot of firms are as short as 1/2 on Luis Fabiano scoring tomorrow and that price is about right. Stanjames are still currently 5/6 though and that represents a bit of value in a match where Fabiano is sure to get a handful of good scoring opportunities. The Brazilians will play most of the game in the North Korean half and Kaka and Robinho should create plenty.

Selection Offering Value
2pts Luis Fabiano anytime scorer @ 5/6 (SJ), 65%

Full Preview

ValueSeeker

ValueSeeker wrote: »

Brazil v North Korea

A lot of firms are as short as 1/2 on Luis Fabiano scoring tomorrow and that price is about right. Stanjames are still currently 5/6 though and that represents a bit of value in a match where Fabiano is sure to get a handful of good scoring opportunities. The Brazilians will play most of the game in the North Korean half and Kaka and Robinho should create plenty.

Selection Offering Value
2pts Luis Fabiano anytime scorer @ 5/6 (SJ), 65%

Full Preview

Bet = Lose

ValueSeeker

Brazil v Chile

If Chile continue to play their high pressing game against the Brazilians, they could be in for a hard time tomorrow. Brazil are now a counter attacking side and if Chile push too high up, I expect Fabiano, Kaka and Robinho to take them apart. Chile will be without key defensive players due to suspension.

Selection Offering Value
3pts Brazil to score 2 or more goals @ 1.92 (betfair)

Full preview

Vurnon San Benito

You'll turn around the form soon lad
I just don't fancy your latest bet! :P

ValueSeeker

ValueSeeker wrote: »

Brazil v Chile

If Chile continue to play their high pressing game against the Brazilians, they could be in for a hard time tomorrow. Brazil are now a counter attacking side and if Chile push too high up, I expect Fabiano, Kaka and Robinho to take them apart. Chile will be without key defensive players due to suspension.

Selection Offering Value
3pts Brazil to score 2 or more goals @ 1.92 (betfair)

Full preview

Bet = Win

ValueSeeker

Argentina v Germany

Both teams looking seriously potent in attack with Germany playing a completely all out attack style football. Both are suspect in defence when got at and I'd expect both teams to create a lot of good chances and with the firepower on show, a few should be taken.

Selection offering value: 3pts both teams to score @ 10/11 (WH), 65-70%

Vurnon San Benito

Excellent bet on Bastos being carded. Well done.

L'prof

Yeah, followed you on that and used your thinking behind it to back Hans Serpei to be booked too, thanks!

ValueSeeker

If you like those bets lads, keep an eye out for sevilla next season. Navas in particular but also Capel. Navas is forever getting his opponents booked and you can usually get his direct opponent at nice prices. The referees in LaLiga are all card mad as well.

L'prof

ValueSeeker wrote: »

If you like those bets lads, keep an eye out for sevilla next season. Navas in particular but also Capel. Navas is forever getting his opponents booked and you can usually get his direct opponent at nice prices. The referees in LaLiga are all card mad as well.

Lovin' them so far, backed Otamendi in this match

Vurnon San Benito

I'm very much thinking Vera to be booked in this match today.
Thoughts?

He just seems a very ambitious, eager workhorse and from what I've saw of him in the World Cup so far, he's been booked in most of them.!

ValueSeeker

Another decent trading opportunity - Germany v Spain currently 2.3 on the over 2.5 on the exchanges. I'd expect it to be backed in to about 2.05 - 2.1 by the night before/ early morning of the game. Worst case scenario I'd imagine is it will stay the same so no risk.

ValueSeeker

ValueSeeker wrote: »

Argentina v Germany

Both teams looking seriously potent in attack with Germany playing a completely all out attack style football. Both are suspect in defence when got at and I'd expect both teams to create a lot of good chances and with the firepower on show, a few should be taken.

Selection offering value: 3pts both teams to score @ 10/11 (WH), 65-70%

Bet = Lose

ValueSeeker

Thread stats:

Staked: 36.25pts | Returned: 41.85pts | Profit: + 5.6pts

ValueSeeker

Looking forward to the new season and hope to get this thread really taking off and provide some top value tips throughout. Kicking off...


Community Shield - Chelsea v UTD

Man of the match dutching - Rooney, Drogba and Lampard @ 2.25

Fancy this game to be pretty tame and tight especially if the weather is hot as is the norm and I'd say chances are pretty high that 1 of the aforementioned star names could be the difference or between the teams. Using best prices available odds calculate to 2.25.

Rooney: 1.04pts
Drogba: 1.12
Lampard: 0.84pts

Confidence: 60-65%

Total staked: 3pts (bet void if any non starters)

ValueSeeker

Lads, I'll be doing a Trading, Dutching and Spread Betting section on my blog this season if anyone's interested in the more advanced forms of betting. Been very profitable in the past and hopefully will continue to be.

Stay tuned to this section throughout the season if you are interested.

ValueSeeker

ValueSeeker wrote: »

Looking forward to the new season and hope to get this thread really taking off and provide some top value tips throughout. Kicking off...


Community Shield - Chelsea v UTD

Man of the match dutching - Rooney, Drogba and Lampard @ 2.25

Fancy this game to be pretty tame and tight especially if the weather is hot as is the norm and I'd say chances are pretty high that 1 of the aforementioned star names could be the difference or between the teams. Using best prices available odds calculate to 2.25.

Rooney: 1.04pts
Drogba: 1.12
Lampard: 0.84pts

Confidence: 60-65%

Total staked: 3pts (bet void if any non starters)

Bet = Void

ValueSeeker

Man UTD v N'Castle

Although Newcastle were in the Championship last year, they havn't changed that much and a trip to Old Trafford usually means a thrashing for them. Although it's early days, UTD have already hit form scoring a lot of goals in pre season / Community shield. With the firepower on show with Berbatov, Rooney and Owen all fit and Hernandez now there too, it could be a long returning fixture for Newcastle come Monday night.

Selection Offering Value - 2.5pts UTD to score 3 or more goals @ 11/8 (general), 50-55%

Vurnon San Benito

ValueSeeker wrote: »

Man UTD v N'Castle

Although Newcastle were in the Championship last year, they havn't changed that much and a trip to Old Trafford usually means a thrashing for them. Although it's early days, UTD have already hit form scoring a lot of goals in pre season / Community shield. With the firepower on show with Berbatov, Rooney and Owen all fit and Hernandez now there too, it could be a long returning fixture for Newcastle come Monday night.

Selection Offering Value - 2.5pts UTD to score 3 or more goals @ 11/8 (general), 50-55%

As a Newcastle United fan, I'd agree, will most likely be 3 or 4 nil.
However, we'll be going there to score goals too, and we'll hope not to concede too many as well. A draw would be the target, but as you said, United always turn it on at home against us.

Although, exact same fixture last year, first game of the season, we went and drew Different team though, different tactics. We'll see

ValueSeeker

ValueSeeker wrote: »

Man UTD v N'Castle

Although Newcastle were in the Championship last year, they havn't changed that much and a trip to Old Trafford usually means a thrashing for them. Although it's early days, UTD have already hit form scoring a lot of goals in pre season / Community shield. With the firepower on show with Berbatov, Rooney and Owen all fit and Hernandez now there too, it could be a long returning fixture for Newcastle come Monday night.

Selection Offering Value - 2.5pts UTD to score 3 or more goals @ 11/8 (general), 50-55%

Bet = Win

ValueSeeker

Young Boys v spurs

Full Preview available on this one for anyone interested

I'm expecting an open game tonight as Spurs will look to try and put it to bed in the first leg. Easier said than done but they'll approach it with attacking intent. Young boys have conceeded in each of their last 5 home games and Spurs will likely be without Palacios and King, their 2 most important defensive players.

Selection Offering Value: 2.5pts Over 2.5 goals @ 1.92 (Betfair) 70%

ValueSeeker

ValueSeeker wrote: »

Young Boys v spurs

Full Preview available on this one for anyone interested

I'm expecting an open game tonight as Spurs will look to try and put it to bed in the first leg. Easier said than done but they'll approach it with attacking intent. Young boys have conceeded in each of their last 5 home games and Spurs will likely be without Palacios and King, their 2 most important defensive players.

Selection Offering Value: 2.5pts Over 2.5 goals @ 1.92 (Betfair) 70%

Bet = Win

ValueSeeker

Thread stats:

Staked: 44.25pts | Returned: 55.59pts| Profit: + 11.34pts

ValueSeeker

Wigan v Chelsea

Goals are free flowing for Chelsea right now and with Wigan likely to have a go rather than defend, I can't see Chelsea's scoring spree not continuing this weekend. They had a fully fit squad to choose from against WBA and looked at the top of their game. They are relentless under Ancelotti and another big win would't surprise at all.

Selection offering value: 2.75pts Chelsea to score 3 or more goals @ 6/5 (Boylesports)

Full Preview on this one.

ValueSeeker

WBA v Sunderland - 2pts Darren Bent anytime scorer @ 13/8 (Coral), 50% | Longshot: 1pt Bent brace @ 13/2 (PP) - Expect Bent to capitalise with his pace on through balls from Steed Malbrangue and co as WBA push their back line forward and leave gaps in behind.

ValueSeeker

Fulham v Man UTD - 4pts Away corners over 6.5 @ 1/1 (Bet365), 75-80% - Fulham is a small tight ground conducive to corners being won and under Hughes(who plays a high intensity attacking game) this season, the corner markets are something to look at every other week at Craven cottage. I'd expect any 2 of Giggs, Valencia and Nani as well as an over lapping Evra together with the front men to get in behind on many occasions leading directly and indirectly to a high away corner count. 8/11 @ a line of 7.5 would be accurate.

ValueSeeker

Just a quick heads up lads,

Watch out for the booking's markets when Newcastle are involved this season. With Joey Barton and Alan smith in the centre of midfield they have possibly the dirtiest midfield ever.

Barton was a 10/1 winner in the "First to be booked" market at OT on Monday and both he and Smith can be had @ 9's today. I can tell you now that if you back both of those (with small enough stakes) to be the first booked in every game this season, you will end up with a tidy season profit.

Other markets to look at are total Newcastle cards, Total bookings, "To be carded" "To be sent off" and "First team booking".

You'll generally get just under the evens mark on Newcastle being the first team booked and I'd estimate they'd strike up a 65-70% win rate this season in that market. 20/21 today and at home, urged on by the atmopshere and on a tight enough pitch, I'd expect Smith and Barton to do some damage today.

I think Atkinson is the ref fresh off dishing out a red last week and a sending off today is 5.7 on betfair or a sending off today for Barton or Smith - both 25/1 on PP.

Something to look at over the course of the whole season.