Nic's Footy Picks

El Horseboxo

Probably won't dabble in it today but i'll be keeping it in mind. Trying to broaden the markets i look for value in. Thanks.

Verance

Well done! Do many bookies offer this market? Can't find it on oddschecker.

EDIT, that's Smith and Barton booked now.

ValueSeeker

Generally about 5 or 6 of the big firms offer it on live games. Betfred, PP, Skybet, Blue s/q ...

ValueSeeker

ValueSeeker wrote: »

Wigan v Chelsea

Goals are free flowing for Chelsea right now and with Wigan likely to have a go rather than defend, I can't see Chelsea's scoring spree not continuing this weekend. They had a fully fit squad to choose from against WBA and looked at the top of their game. They are relentless under Ancelotti and another big win would't surprise at all.

Selection offering value: 2.75pts Chelsea to score 3 or more goals @ 6/5 (Boylesports)

Full Preview on this one.

Bet = Win

ValueSeeker wrote: »

WBA v Sunderland - 2pts Darren Bent anytime scorer @ 13/8 (Coral), 50% | Longshot: 1pt Bent brace @ 13/2 (PP) - Expect Bent to capitalise with his pace on through balls from Steed Malbrangue and co as WBA push their back line forward and leave gaps in behind.

Bet(s) = Lose

ValueSeeker wrote: »

Fulham v Man UTD - 4pts Away corners over 6.5 @ 1/1 (Bet365), 75-80% - Fulham is a small tight ground conducive to corners being won and under Hughes(who plays a high intensity attacking game) this season, the corner markets are something to look at every other week at Craven cottage. I'd expect any 2 of Giggs, Valencia and Nani as well as an over lapping Evra together with the front men to get in behind on many occasions leading directly and indirectly to a high away corner count. 8/11 @ a line of 7.5 would be accurate.

Bet = win, with plenty of change

ValueSeeker

Tonight's game lads, wait for the lineups as there are doubts about Masher and Kolarov but I'm expecting a tight midfield battle in the early stages and we have 2 more dirty b-stards in Masher and De Jong in the centre.

I'll be dutching De Jong, Masher and Kolarov for first booking if they all start. If not, I may leave it but I'll check the lineups. Phil Dowd in charge.

First player booking odds

ValueSeeker

Thread stats:

Staked: 54pts | Returned: 69.64pts| Profit: + 15.64pts

ValueSeeker

ValueSeeker wrote: »

Tonight's game lads, wait for the lineups as there are doubts about Masher and Kolarov but I'm expecting a tight midfield battle in the early stages and we have 2 more dirty b-stards in Masher and De Jong in the centre.

I'll be dutching De Jong, Masher and Kolarov for first booking if they all start. If not, I may leave it but I'll check the lineups. Phil Dowd in charge.

First player booking odds

Odds of 3.47 with best prices on that btw.

I'm eyeing up the Sunderland v Man City match for trading. They are being priced up between 1/1 and 11/10 and there should be some decent money on about the 2.1 on betfair. I expect the market to jump on that and City to be backed in to about 1.85 come Friday night, especially if they have a good result tonight against Liverpool.

Vurnon San Benito

ValueSeeker wrote: »

Just a quick heads up lads,
I'd expect Smith and Barton to do some damage today.

Barton certainly did do some damage :pac:

Hope you didn't lose anything on them.

ValueSeeker

Spurs v Young Boys - 2.5pts Crouch anytime scorer @ 11/8 (Betfair), 50-55%

With Young Boys retreating into defense, Spurs will look to attack down the flanks with Lennon and Bale (2 of the league's biggest corner earners - also worth looking at the corner markets) and get in crosses for the big man. Plenty of balls should fall his way in the box.

You can catch a full preview of this one on my blog. I'm expecting the pace of Young Boys to cause problems for Spurs on the counter and Bienvenu is the one I'm looking at.

ValueSeeker

ValueSeeker wrote: »

Spurs v Young Boys - 2.5pts Crouch anytime scorer @ 11/8 (Betfair), 50-55%

With Young Boys retreating into defense, Spurs will look to attack down the flanks with Lennon and Bale (2 of the league's biggest corner earners - also worth looking at the corner markets) and get in crosses for the big man. Plenty of balls should fall his way in the box.

You can catch a full preview of this one on my blog. I'm expecting the pace of Young Boys to cause problems for Spurs on the counter and Bienvenu is the one I'm looking at.

Bet = Win

ValueSeeker

Barca v Hercules - 3.5pts Barcelona (-2.5) asian handicap @ 3/4 (Bet365) 70%, Barcelona attack will be too hot to handle for the La Liga new boys and they'll be happy to try and keep the scoreline down

Everton v UTD - 2pts Rooney FSB (Skybet) Man of the match @ 7/2 (skybet), 40-45%, Found the scoring touch again and going back to his old ground where he will be wound up by the home crowd which will only make him more of a danger.

More tips on my blog for this weekend's footy, La Liga is warming up...