UK Elections - Exit polls / First impressions / Constituency Results

redout

First Exit Poll: Joint Sky News/BBC/ITV Exit Poll

Conservative - 307
Labour - 255
Lib Dems - 59

Hung Parliament

dreamer_ire

Anyone have any idea what time the Northern Ireland seats are expected to be announced?

Hamlet.

Exit polls 307 for Tories.

No majority but could form a minority.

Just makes tonight more exciting. Anything could happen.

Good luck Dave!

LordSutch

When is Peter Snow on with his swingometer ?

My prediction a 'Hung Parliament' with the Conservatives as the largest party, to be propped up by the liberals + two possible UUP seats :eek:

BroomBurner

Going by that Exit Poll, the LibDems are this year's Portillo.

I sincerely hope the poll is wrong.

steelcityblues

Must admit, i'm shocked by the LibDems projected total!

sink

Only 59 for Lib Dems, shocking and disappointing. I hope this exit is wrong.

naughto

ive no clue about poltics so how do they get out of hung parliament

Inquitus

That exit Poll has to be complete bollox tbh, I'll be really surprised if it stands up. I cant see the lib dems losing seats on last time. It was done by UNS as well, which wouldnt stand up well in a 3 horse race.

BroomBurner

They could team up with another party/parties to make up the seats, similarly to what FF did with the Greens and independents.

Otherwise, they could request for the Queen to award them a minority government.

Jesus, even adding Lab and LibDem, they still wouldn't get a majority going by that poll. I sincerely hope they're wrong.

LordSutch

Conservative = 307

Labour = 255

Lib Dems = 59

Others = 29

sink

Looking at that exit poll even a Lab/LD coalition wouldn't have a majority.

BroomBurner

Inquitus wrote: »

That exit Poll has to be complete bollox tbh, I'll be really surprised if it stands up. I cant see the lib dems losing seats on last time. It was done by UNS as well, which wouldnt stand up well in a 3 horse race.

The poll was conducted by IPSI/Mori, on behalf of the BBC, ITV and Sky combined.

owenc

What's this now I thought the first results weren't in till 11

Inquitus

BroomBurner wrote: »

The poll was conducted by IPSI/Mori, on behalf of the BBC, ITV and Sky combined.

UNS means Uniform National Swing ergo it doesnt take into account the vaguaries of a potential 3 horse race.

redout

Possible Lab/Lib Dem/DUP on the cards perhaps ?

BroomBurner

Inquitus wrote: »

UNS means Uniform National Swing ergo it doesnt take into account the vaguaries of a potential 3 horse race.

Sorry, I should have included the line "make of that what you will", I was stating who conducted the poll in terms of your comment about it being bollix!

steelcityblues

Real story could be the LibDems stalling this time around.

On that seat count, we may have at least one of Lucas, Farage or Griffin getting elected for the smaller parties!

Unpredictable night ahead!

Hamlet.

I'd happily take the exit polls but no way can LD lose seats surely? They don't include postals and that could be alot of LD fans who were going by first debate.

It's too close. Very nervewracking night ahead. Didn't expect anything different.

apoch632

http://blogs.ft.com/westminster/2010/05/seven-reasons-to-be-wary-of-the-exit-poll-tonight/

BroomBurner

Voters were turned away from lots of polling stations, including Clegg's own constituency, due to the long queues and not everyone getting in before 10pm.

Could be an issue raised if things go awry.

steelcityblues

People refusing to leave poll stations around Hillsborough, Sheffield area!

redout

Lovin it

"The Terminator has spoken" - Adam Boulton

Arnold Schwarzenegger has tweeted his congratulations to David Cameron on his victory.

sceptre

Some posts moved from the other thread, title of this one modified. is where the night owls can provide views as the poll results start coming in with Sunderland. Discussion with reasonable-ish focus desired please:)

/mod

mike65

Sounds like too mnay voters and not enough polling stations (or more likely too may fools leaving it till the last minute, 70%+ turnout). The Exit Poll is almost certainly completely wrong, quite why its wrong will no doubt be discussed tomorrow - if it is!

Euro_Kraut

The first results from Sunderland will be fascinating. If they are consistent with the swing in the exit poll than its game on the Cameron.

The percentage equivalent of the Exit poll seats is:

CON: 39.1%
LAB: 30.2%
LIB: 22.6%
Others: 8%

BroomBurner

A lot of people couldn't make it earlier, but started queuing at around 9pm. One guy got in to the centre,but the polls were closed.

Very badly organised.

LordSutch

Euro_Kraut wrote: »

The first results from Sunderland will be fascinating. If they are consistent with the swing in the exit poll than its game on the Cameron.

Indeed, but who will he have to get into bed with ? (metaphorically speaking).

Inquitus

BroomBurner wrote: »

A lot of people couldn't make it earlier, but started queuing at around 9pm. One guy got in to the centre,but the polls were closed.

Very badly organised.

Hmmm "cba to Q it looks a bit long, will come back later", smacks of "cba to queue" rather than bad organisation.

BroomBurner

Ah yeah, there is a smattering of that. However, what they could have done was stop allowing people to queue once it was 10pm, but allow all those present to cast.

Looks like noone believes te exit poll.

amacachi

Exit poll just can't be correct.

sceptre

I love the spin so far (I'm watching Dimbleby/Paxman/Vine on BBC News, it's the same coverage on BBC1 London, I'm ignoring the regional coverage on BBC Wales, NI and Scotland, though they're all running their regional varieties, BBC Scotland & Wales' coverage looking significantly more professional and, dare I say, competent, than BBC NI). Those on Sky can easily flick between channels 501 and 503, assuming you haven't chosen to watch Channel 4's coverage (most recent Jimmy Carr quote: "Nick Griffin, we all know he's a ****ing idiot") instead - well watchable if you're not a results junkie, they've promised results as well. Or gone to the pub.

Labour are moving towards saying that the will of the people is that one party shouldn't have a majority and they're willing to do a deal. It's been said by a few people so far but Mandelson is pimping it heavily, saying that they were always going to lose votes and that the conservatives haven't won.

Conservatives are pushing that it's a rejection of Labour and Gordon Brown. Theresa May is hammering at it being "a clear vote for change", that the conservatives were hoping for a mandate for change and hence they have it.

The Liberal Democrats are mostly sitting pretty and hoping they get to grin a lot. Don't ask me the name of the LibDem guy on the panel, none of the LibDems have their own names yet - they're hoping that'll be a part of a deal they can cut.

Sunderland is getting warmer. I like the new UK constituency map, it reminds me of the old ITV morning weather. The "swingometer" is reminiscent of the one they used in 1983 & 1987 when they last thought they had to cope with three main parties (for the folks dramatically older than me, it's like the chart they used in 1974).

amacachi

Let me rephrase that, the Exit Poll may be correct on the vote share but I can't see the Lib Dems losing seats.

Talking on Sky about a government being formed just to hold a referendum on changing the electoral system. Would be excellent.

Euro_Kraut

Camelot wrote: »

Indeed, but who will he have to get into bed with ?

The Robinsons. Although its not clear if there is much space in their bed at it is.

efb

Con Min or Lab\Lib Dem likely

Con minority maybe?

loldog

Mandelson on BBC called for electoral reform, said fptp is on its last legs. Views echoed by Alan Johnson a few minutes later. This is good news.

.

naughto

who is the best fella for the job in your opinions??are any of them mad for war like blare was

Skyuser

What a waste of £400,000 by the three broadcasters.

efb

loldog wrote: »

Mandelson on BBC called for electoral reform, said fptp is on its last legs. Views echoed by Alan Johnson a few minutes later. This is good news.

.

Mandy's cuddling up to the Lib Dems already... smooth!

BroomBurner

efb wrote: »

Mandy's cuddling up to the Lib Dems already... smooth!

I'm convinced that guy bathes in dripping.

Oh Sunderand South! Here it goes!

redout

First result: Sunderland

Labour candidate elected

mike65

First declaration is in

Lib Dem 5292
Tory 8147
Labout 19137

That seems to be no gain to speak of for the Tories (they were never going to win the seat)

Turnout up 2% on 2005

edit the swing is 8.5% for the Tories, so that could be good news for the Tories

amacachi

Well Sunderland was always going to be safe, any ideas how it holds up compared to the last election?

naughto

how did they get the result so fast

BroomBurner

Jesus, an outright win!

That's how to win a seat - run a women's refuge.

I actually found myself cheering there

nkay1985

Did a double take when I saw that exit poll. I'm with everyone else in thinking it has to be wrong but by how much can it be wrong!

sceptre

That one's a new constituency, regarded as the 9th safest Labour seat in England. 8.4 swing from Labour to conservative (Labour down 12ish, Conservative up only 5, figures don't match due to the BBC rounding everything to a full percentage point, the scamps).

Sunderland South is a better indicator of any possible swing, 12% swing needed for turnover.

efb

Lib Dem -1 Swing to Con 8.4

Con min Gov methinks

RichTea

nkay1985 wrote: »

Did a double take when I saw that exit poll. I'm with everyone else in thinking it has to be wrong but by how much can it be wrong!

Hopefully a lot. C'mon Lib Dem/Labour/everyone else

Euro_Kraut

Lib Dems down 1% in Sunderland. Balls.

amacachi

nkay1985 wrote: »

Did a double take when I saw that exit poll. I'm with everyone else in thinking it has to be wrong but by how much can it be wrong!

I really don't know. No-one seems to believe the exit poll at all.

sceptre wrote: »

That one's a new constituency, regarded as the 9th safest Labour seat in England. 8.4 swing from Labour to conservative.

Sunderland South is a better indicator of any possible swing, 12% swing needed for turnover.

Ooh, big swing for that constituency. What kind of numbers had the BNP and UKIP last time though?