UK Elections - Exit polls / First impressions / Constituency Results

DJCR

dreamer_ire wrote: »

Fermanagh South Tyrone 2nd recount puts Gildernew ahead by 2 votes. 3rd recount tomorrow morning starting at 9. Both sides taking legal advice. Arlene Foster made it to the polling centre in an hour and ten from Belfast!

Bed time for me too.... thanks for your company and the updates folks

*dislike

Fooking Lawyers!

sink

Jacqui Smith is out, serves her right.

DJCR

sink wrote: »

Jacqui Smith is out, serves her right.

Fact, there was a tear in her eye - but I really couldn't feel sorry for her.

13.4% loss of vote for her!!

Devastated for Labour in general

LordSutch

Conservative gain Croydon Central & Dewsbury from Labour!

Good night all, I'm off to Z z z z z z z z z z

nkay1985

Jesus Jacqui Smith fair got trounced!

Wonder when most of the results will be in.

DJCR

Good night everyone!!! I've lasted this long waiting for one result..... God damn Hendon, result was supposed to be out an hour ago!!!

nesf

Right been quiet all night, might as well start posting.

Thoughts so far:

Lib Dems doing badly given polling over the month. They'll still be kingmakers but what a kick in the teeth for Clegg tbh.

Labour managing not to implode which considering what the conditions were going into this election is a win of sorts after 13 years in office.

Conservatives, just not getting enough marginals. Good night but again another kick in the teeth given how Cameron used to be polling.

DJCR

nesf wrote: »

Right been quiet all night, might as well start posting.

Thoughts so far:

Lib Dems doing badly given polling over the month. They'll still be kingmakers but what a kick in the teeth for Clegg tbh.

Labour managing not to implode which considering what the conditions were going into this election is a win of sorts after 13 years in office.

Conservatives, just not getting enough marginals. Good night but again another kick in the teeth given how Cameron used to be polling.

So Labour win by default :D:D

nkay1985

nesf wrote: »

Right been quiet all night, might as well start posting.

Thoughts so far:

Lib Dems doing badly given polling over the month. They'll still be kingmakers but what a kick in the teeth for Clegg tbh.

Labour managing not to implode which considering what the conditions were going into this election is a win of sorts after 13 years in office.

Conservatives, just not getting enough marginals. Good night but again another kick in the teeth given how Cameron used to be polling.

All pretty spot on alright.

Am I the only one intrigued as to how a minority government could possibly funcition?

ynotdu

nesf wrote: »

Right been quiet all night, might as well start posting.

Thoughts so far:

Lib Dems doing badly given polling over the month. They'll still be kingmakers but what a kick in the teeth for Clegg tbh.

Labour managing not to implode which considering what the conditions were going into this election is a win of sorts after 13 years in office.

Conservatives, just not getting enough marginals. Good night but again another kick in the teeth given how Cameron used to be polling.

nesf you will proably be shown to be the clever one to say nowt any sooner!!!!:D

me-skywalker

Ed Balls will serve in government!! YES!!!

nkay1985

See the head on the scumbag from the BNP behind Ed Balls!

He got 3,000 votes ffs :eek:

recylingbin

nkay1985 wrote: »

Jesus Jacqui Smith fair got trounced!

Wonder when most of the results will be in.

Of course she did.
When you hear her name, the first thing you think is how the taxpayers paid for her porn. Imagine how her constituents felt about that.

How did that lad with the moat get on? Or was he a lord?

DJCR

Ed Balls "They can not buy our country" ...... Cue Conservative Boos!!!!

LOVE THIS GUY!!!! He's devilishly devisive!!! :D:D:D:D:D

THE FIGHT STARTS NOW!!!!

sceptre

nkay1985 wrote: »

All pretty spot on alright.

Am I the only one intrigued as to how a minority government could possibly funcition?

They'd make deals as they go along. MPs will cross the divide on a lot of things anyway, it's the three-line whips that they need to look out for.

The key votes are surprisingly few - initially they (whoever it is) need to demonstrate that they can form as stable a government as is possible, or at least more stable than the alternative, whatever that is. The main key is to avoid a loss of supply - essentially they need to pass any bill that involves government funds, basically any finance/budget bills. Potentially pretty unstable, often touch and go as you can see from what happened in 1974. Or in Ireland in 1982.
Under the Westminster system, a loss of supply automatically triggers either a dissolution of parliament or a resignation by the PM, giving everyone the chance to form a government.

Simon Wright, just elected in Norwich South for the LDs, looks about 12. It's almost reminiscent of 1997.

Whatever about Jacqui Smith, who was partly highlighted merely because she was the first to be highlighted, I'm particularly pleased to see Shahid Malik (former undersecretary for justice) go in Dewsbury. He was openly brazen about his expenses when interviewed on Sky last November or so, there's a thread here about it somewhere.

recylingbin wrote: »

How did that lad with the moat get on? Or was he a lord?

Douglas Hogg didn't run again in this election. He's the guy who claimed for moat-cleaning and piano tuning. The constituency to watch to see what happens is Sleaford and North Hykeham, no result from there yet AFAIK.

loldog

There's hardly any London seats declared yet, likewise Manchester Liverpool.

Tories need to win in the cities, but they're likely to get mixed results.
.

DJCR

"Did the British People vote Blue to get Orange Men"??

:D:D:D:D Lord Ashdown

nkay1985

sceptre wrote: »

They'd make deals as they go along. MPs will cross the divide on a lot of things anyway, it's the three-line whips that they need to look out for.

The key votes are surprisingly few - initially they (whoever it is) need to demonstrate that they can form as stable a government as is possible, or at least more stable than the alternative, whatever that is. The main key is to avoid a loss of supply - essentially they need to pass any bill that involves government funds, basically any finance/budget bills. Potentially pretty unstable, often touch and go as you can see from what happened in 1974. Or in Ireland in 1982.
Under the Westminster system, a loss of supply automatically triggers either a dissolution of parliament or a resignation by the PM, giving everyone the chance to form a government.

Simon Wright, just elected in Norwich South for the LDs, looks about 12. It's almost reminiscent of 1997.

Yeah but surely the government's very existence would be on a knife edge all the time. The decisions that will be made won't be popular and could easily cause a situation like you described.

ynotdu

nkay1985 wrote: »

All pretty spot on alright.

Am I the only one intrigued as to how a minority government could possibly funcition?

It is only a psycological b arrier assuming it happens,There was in the UK a LIb/LAB pack already.

Most parliaments around the world work off Coalitions/or minority Govts propped up by 'weirdo partys' or Independants,and it seldom turned out to be the end of the World.

Politics= 'the art of the possible' and all that!:)

nkay1985

ynotdu wrote: »

It is only a psycological b arrier assuming it happens,There was in the UK a LIb/LAB pack already.

Most parliaments around the world work off Coalitions/or minority Govts propped up by 'weirdo partys' or Independants,and it seldom turned out to be the end of the World.

Politics= 'the art of the possible' and all that!:)

Yeah I know but it'll still be very interesting to see how it'd work out in Britain in the current economic situation and all that.

sceptre

nkay1985 wrote: »

Yeah but surely the government's very existence would be on a knife edge all the time.

In a word, yes.

The decisions that will be made won't be popular and could easily cause a situation like you described.

Indeed. You can see it in the dying year or two of the last Tory administration, where they essentially limped on for over a year with support from the Ulster Unionists after losing a series of bye-elections. It's not a healthy position for a government but one can hop along. The financial markets would scream at it though, they hate uncertainty even more than they hate poor people running the country.

What the conservatives may have on their side if they choose to go it alone with help from the smaller fringes is that Nick Clegg has already said that he doesn't want to cause another general election any time soon. He's essentially blinked before the game has started. The LDs aren't likely to cause a loss of supply in the next year to trigger a general election if there's a minority government based on what Clegg said. Then again, right now with most of London still in play, who knows what way the numbers could fall. There could still be a formal Con/LD or Lab/LD pact or coalition.

Labour's secondary message now appears to be that it isn't really a loss as they haven't lost by as much as they thought they might. That's got all the trappings of Cyprus celebrating after a game when they've managed to score a goal against the Germans, even when Germany have scored eight.

loldog

Hazel Blears (expenses scandal) holds LAB seat in Salford. Labour voters, eh?:)

.

DJCR

loldog wrote: »

Hazel Blears (expenses scandal) holds LAB seat in Salford. Labour voters, eh?:)

.

Nah, sympathetic Conservatives.

nkay1985

sceptre wrote: »

In a word, yes.


Indeed. You can see it in the dying year or two of the last Tory administration, where they essentially limped on for over a year with support from the Ulster Unionists. It's not a healthy position for a government but one can hop along.

What the conservatives may have on their side if they choose to go it alone with help from the smaller fringes is that Nick Clegg has already said that he doesn't want to cause another general election any time soon. He's essentially blinked before the game has started. The LDs aren't likely to cause a loss of supply in the next year to trigger a general election if there's a minority government based on what Clegg said. Then again, right now with most of London still in play, who knows what way the numbers could fall.

Yeah that's a very good point about Clegg actually.

No doubt that London will throw up a few surprises and I'd love to stay up and watch it develop, but alas I must retire, lest I not arise in the morning.


Cheers for the company and updates lads. I'm sure I'll see all of you over the next day or two!

ynotdu

nkay1985 wrote: »

Yeah I know but it'll still be very interesting to see how it'd work out in Britain in the current economic situation and all that.

There could hardly be a worst time for unstable Govt's for sure!:(

loldog

Yay! My vote went to the winner in Hammersmith (LAB).

.

Elliemental

One positive thing that I have noticed about this election, and the run up to it; is that the BNP have been treated like the non-entities that they are. But it still looks like a hung parliament. This really couldn't have happened at a more inconvenient time. The country needed a strong government.

banquo

Greens just won a seat!

sceptre

Win for the Green party (Caroline Lucas) in Brighton Pavilion. Historic moment for the Greens in UK elections, it's been a long time coming for them.

ynotdu

banquo wrote: »

Greens just won a seat!

Surprise to Me that she is going to be the one and only member of the next UK parliment.hope it was not a garden seat she won:)

The one seater systym in England is unfair.
Our system of PR is proably fairer but still not fair.
The pr system based on a list seems to be the fairest.

It simply is not fair that a party/president/Taoiseach/prime minister can win the most amount of votes in a Country but lose an Election.

anybody around the boards that knows when was the last time that at 06.25 morning after a UK election the result was not known?

Dont UK Prime Ministers usually have their belongings already packed and moving vans at the back of NO 10 on election night even if they think they will win?

efb

New dawn, UK looking like that guy from Boogie Nights, it's that well hung!

Bye bye Jaccqui Smith overnight and the cheeky boy from Lib Dems!

Pride Fighter

Labour/Lib Dem/SDLP/Welsh and Scottish Nationalist bloc coalition on the cards. Would be better than the Conservatives anyway.

redout

The Sun really gone to town on Brown with their headline frontpage.

danman

Pride Fighter wrote: »

Labour/Lib Dem/SDLP/Welsh and Scottish Nationalist bloc coalition on the cards. Would be better than the Conservatives anyway.

They would all be ideologically similar, apart for LD's maybe.
I'd love to see the SDLP have a say.
With Welsh and Scottish nationalists involved, it would be a government that would be more inclusive of the country as a whole.

Berwick

You remember Mrs. Robinson?

•Northern Ireland's first minister and DUP leader Peter Robinson has been defeated in East Belfast by the Alliance party

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/politics/election_2010/8666128.stm

Pride Fighter

redout wrote: »

The Sun really gone to town on Brown with their headline frontpage.

Link??

BluntGuy

Again, this election has thrown into sharp focus how FPTP has artifically created "strong" governments.

I would've hoped the Lib Dems would do better, but they never, ever had a chance of 100 seats as some predicted, and never will under the current system.

I'm not a fan of the conservatives, their policies are outdated and failed, but it's looking increasingly likely they will form some part of the next government. I don't see the Lib Dems working well with them.

LordSutch

Back now after a four hour sleep

Wow what a night > still waiting for the Fermanagh South Tyrone verdict!

ednwireland

awww nuts dewsbury gone tory malik a victim of expenses and boundary changes i think (went from safe labour to marginal in the 80's cos of boundary changes and more rural gone in this time)

redout

Pride Fighter wrote: »

Link??

I am looking for a website that shows frontpages so I can post it.

I got the headline off Sky News about half-hour ago.

The editor of the sun was being interviewed by Eamon Holmes.

Ickle Magoo

Tories only got one out of the 58 seats in Scotland - two less than even Maggie managed...destroying any chance of them being able to crow that the UK wants slimey auld Cameron in power...so proud, so proud.

LordSutch

What about the Polling debacle, with hundreds of people not being able to vote, even though they were inside the polling station before 10pm.

Serious questions to be asked of the authorities involved.

cruiserweight

Ickle Magoo wrote: »

Tories only got one out of the 58 seats in Scotland - two less than even Maggie managed...destroying any chance of them being able to crow that the UK wants slimey auld Cameron in power...so proud, so proud.

Exactly the same result as 2005, no need for an election really

LordSutch

It will be a 'Hung Parliament' > officially announced 09:41am.

Ickle Magoo

cruiserweight wrote: »

Exactly the same result as 2005, no need for an election really

Oh there was, as well as losing two seats there was an overall 5% vote swing away from the tories, rendering them even less popular than their previous worst ever results in scotland in 2005. Happy days. :pac:

Ickle Magoo

Statistically impossible for Cameron to get a majority now...

Brown has first opportunity to form Lab/Lib coalition.

Our man in Havana

A LAB/LD coalition will not work, Cons will have more seats than the 2 combined.

Pride Fighter

Bond-007 wrote: »

A LAB/LD coalition will not work, Cons will have more seats than the 2 combined.

SDLP nearly always vote with Labour. Scottish Nationalists and Plaid Cymru are progressive parties. That would make 327 seats according to BBC. Remember only 324 are needed, as Sinn Fein always abstain.

It does not matter that the Tories have more seats, 63% of the UK voted against them. They are not wanted.

mike65

Labour are not wanted either though.

OS119

Bond-007 wrote: »

A LAB/LD coalition will not work, Cons will have more seats than the 2 combined.

it could work if that LibLab coalition/understanding buy off the Welsh and Scottish nationalists, and the SDLP and DUP.

and they've all said they are for sale...

quite how English voters/taxpayers will react to them be required to fork out for larger/frozen block grants for the other nations while their own services get squeezed even harder is perhaps not something Labour and the LD's will want to concentrate on.

prediction: LD/L pact with support from the 'others'. Brown can't do cabinet government within his own party let alone in coalition, new election called within 12 months and a small Tory win.

the long-term undercurrent will be that Scotland, Wales and NI will get independence from England - whether they like it or not.