UK Elections - Exit polls / First impressions / Constituency Results

sceptre

amacachi wrote: »

Did the main BBC coverage mention anything about Robinson losing his seat?

They had a result, a declaration and about 40 seconds of his speech. About the same amount of coverage they gave Torbay. Just as significant.

cruiserweight

amacachi wrote: »

Did the main BBC coverage mention anything about Robinson losing his seat?

Yes they showed him making his speech and talked about it a little bit mostly referring to him still being first minister

Permabear

This post has been deleted.

ArmaniJeanss

not bakunin wrote: »

Labour's Roger Berry had a notional majority of 6,145 in Kingswood, according to the Guardian. What?

Not sure what you are asking. If you are wondering what 'notional' means...the boundaries of loads of constituencies have changed since the last election so its not as simple as using his majority from that last election as a reference, instead they try to estimate what his majority would have been back then with the current boundaries.

steelcityblues

How many times has a Labour MP used the word 'constitutional' by now?

TommyT

amacachi wrote: »

Did the main BBC coverage mention anything about Robinson losing his seat?

Not yet, in the grand scheme of things it means nothing. Huge result in NI, but there may be much bigger stories as the night unfolds.

Gildernew not doing as well as predicted in FST.

Eliot Rosewater

sink wrote: »

Sound more like something Newscorp would say not BBC News. 2 results is nothing to go on.

I think it was based on the massive swings. So far the North east has had a 8.6% swing towards Conservative away from Labour. If replicated nationally, it would secure it for them.

sceptre

sink wrote: »

Sound more like something Newscorp would say not BBC News. 2 results is nothing to go on.

There are certain constituencies where a turnover might well be significant. Kingswood being one, unexpectedly so.

Basildon South and Battersea being another two, depending on what pops out very soon. If Labour start losing those, it would normally be deemed quite significant, they've revealed significant pivot points in the past. They're doing the coverage by the playbook, though results might hop around quite a bit unexpectedly looking at some of the declaratons so far. They've been bellweather constituencies in the past and that's why they're highlighting that they might be significant.

Having said that, they don't know and they know they don't know. They keep on pointing out that they don't know though so that's OK - Dimbleby's made a point of saying that there doesn't seem to be a pattern that they can see so far and that's basically "oh eh, what's going on at all at all, keep the cameras rolling, we'll let you know when we do".

Isn't it cute how the Northern Ireland declarations are all done in front of a nice tourist poster display for NI? Sharp feckers, dem nordies, well done there.

amacachi

TommyT wrote: »

Not yet, in the grand scheme of things it means nothing. Huge result in NI, but there may be much bigger stories as the night unfolds.

Gildernew not doing as well as predicted in FST.

It's a swing from Tory to LibDem in essence though, so fairly important. Also a huge issue in NI terms. If something similar happened in Wales or Scotland I'd expect some big coverage.

Eliot Rosewater wrote: »

I think it was based on the massive swings. So far the North east has had a 8.6% swing towards Conservative away from Labour. If replicated nationally, it would secure it for them.

Swing was always going to be bigger there since Labour were so far ahead.

murpho999

Talk now from Downing Street that Brown may try to form coalition with Lib Dems.

I really hope for Gordon Brown's own sake that he doesn't do this as if he does, it will always hang over him that he was never really elected as Prime Minister twice and it will just ruin his term!

not bakunin

So far:
Lab - 8
Tory - 3
LD - 2
Others (including NI results) - 8

amacachi

Would be suicide for the Lib Dems to get into a coalition with Labour tbh.

TommyT

murpho999 wrote: »

Talk now from Downing Street that Brown may try to form coalition with Lib Dems.

I really hope for Gordon Brown's own sake that he doesn't do this as if he does, it will always hang over him that he was never really elected as Prime Minister twice and it will just ruin his term!

Doubt that Brown will get a chance to form a coalition, the Tories are heading for an overall majority.

loldog

murpho999 wrote: »

Talk now from Downing Street that Brown may try to form coalition with Lib Dems.

I really hope for Gordon Brown's own sake that he doesn't do this as if he does, it will always hang over him that he was never really elected as Prime Minister twice and it will just ruin his term!

Well Brown might claim that the result could be interpreted as a mandate because the people refused to give a working majority to the Tories.

.

steelcityblues

Alistar Campbell's body language suggested defeat!

amacachi

Blunket not toeing the party line, great to see.

greeno

Better be a hung parliament I've taken a punt and bet my remaining balance on it! 61 quid at 5/4

monkey9

ITV News still predicting a hung parliament!!

sceptre

Durham's a psychological biggie, Labour have held it non-stop for 75 years.

edit: Labour hold there, no swing between Lab and LD, Conservatives lose 30% of their previous vote though. I assume the BBC, ITV and Sky will go back to it and give the result when G Brown is done speechifying in Kirkcaldy (I picked the result off something called the Internet).

I assumed he was the BNP guy but the fist in the air from the Land is Power shower in Kirkcaldy was a bit theatrical. 57 votes too or something.

loldog

Dimbleby is very peevish tonight.

.

amacachi

Brown looks very tired.
****in BBC cutting away from Durham. ¬_¬

cruiserweight

loldog wrote: »

Dimbleby is very peevish tonight.

.

He can be contrary at the best of times, it is amusing IMO

murpho999

Who is the idiot with the 'Black Power' fist and Men in Black Shades behind Gordon Brown?

cruiserweight

amacachi wrote: »

Brown looks very tired.
****in BBC cutting away from Durham. ¬_¬

Labour hold in Durham according to the BBC website

Eliot Rosewater

The fist guy: Land is Power http://www.landlesspeasants.org/ website not responding, unsurprisingly.

Dimbleby does seem a little off.

steelcityblues

He's not talking about the national pattern at all!

NaiveMelodies

murpho999 wrote: »

Who is the idiot with the 'Black Power' fist and Men in Black Shades behind Gordon Brown?

So fcukin creepy

ynotdu

excuse late entry into thread.Just a question for those who have been following this election closely.

It struck Me when i heard Nick Clegg say last week that he would not support Labour if it came second as a Major tactical error.?
Do You guys agree LIB/DEMS may have done far better than at the moment it seems they did but for him saying that?

My point is people who would have preferred a Lib/Lab pact keeping Labour in check then decided a vote for the LD's would indeed be a wasted vote and went with the Tories?

or was it just the old story of 'flirting' with the Lib/Dems until actually entering the polling booth?

just see Gordon at least held on to his own seat!!

Happy Monday

He's better out this game.
He has a young family and wife.
Time to live some real life Gordo!

TommyT

SDLP hold South Belfast

Happy Monday

ynotdu wrote: »

excuse late entry into thread.Just a question for those who have been following this election closely.

It struck Me when i heard Nick Clegg say last week that he would not support Labour if it came second as a Major tactical error.?

I think he said he would not support Gordon Brown if Labour came second.
He would support a new leader like David Milliband - that could still happen.

milly4ever

well done alistair in south belfast!

greeno

Sky News saying Labour polling better than expected in some areas esp Scotland

TommyT

Happy Monday wrote: »

I think he said he would not support Gordon Brown if Labour came second.
He would support a new leader like David Milliband - that could still happen.

Clegg despises Brown.

steelcityblues

Nice to see SF won't win every 'green' seat!

amacachi

Labour hold Tooting.

sceptre

6.5% swing and con gain in Battersea. That's one of the two ones I mentioned earlier as being expected soon and potentially significant. Waiting on Basildon South, the one that made Neil Kinnock feel like screaming.

Labour hold in Tooting. Tooting is the sort of place I'd move to based on the name alone. Slight swing to Labour and bigger one for the conservatives (but not enough), away from LD.

TommyT

Ulster Unionist leader Reg Empey fails to win a seat in South Antrim. Not a good night for the Unionist party leaders.

Mr Trade In

murpho999 wrote: »

Who is the idiot with the 'Black Power' fist and Men in Black Shades behind Gordon Brown?

Looks like the bald white guy from the Matrix, wouldn't take any of these polls seriously,this is going to be a very interesting and very long night,wonder who will loose out most with the people being turned away from the polling stations.

JonathanAnon

"By the way, we won here in Lagan Valley Miram"

Jesus, Jeffrey Donaldson really didnt appreciate Miriam focusing on the DUP major loss. Never liked the guy.. when it was announced he had won his constituency, where the returning officer had called all the candidates to the stage, he did not acknowledge them AT ALL. He stood on the stage in front of them, celebrating like a footballer after scoring a goal in front of the opposition supporters. Then jumped off the stage, still with his arms in the air, and walked over to his party representatives.

Even Ian Paisley Jnr is less contemptible that this Jeffrey Donaldson.

not bakunin

Anyone else hear Paisley Junior on RTE Radio1? He seemed to be implying that Robinson was victim of some sort of underhand media smear campaign and that he himself was lucky to escape such a campaign and be elected. Conveniently ignoring the ineptness of Robinson and his previous bigotry. DUP vote is way down overall though.
Sounds as though Empy won't get in also

dreamer_ire

Looks like a second NI party leader will not have a seat in Westminster.... seems like Willie McCrea has held his seat ahead of Reg Empey's challenge.

I don't think Margeret Ritchie will fair well either but I could be wrong.

murpho999

amacachi wrote: »

Labour hold Tooting.

Am I the only one who thinks of fondling breasts when you read that?:p

steelcityblues

Has McCrea won?

ynotdu

TommyT wrote: »

Clegg despises Brown.

I dont doubt what You say TommyT,ut do You know why? Personal or political?

sceptre

I think of one of my favourite childhood books when I hear Tooting. Mod hat on, keep it relatively together people, you're doing nicely so far - if I fall asleep before you and see a devastated thread about boobies or bodily functions in the morning I won't be pleased at all:)

Massive gap opened in Guilford - conservatives stretched a majority of 89 over LD in 2005 to a majority of 7000 to hold the seat.

Useful national pattern to analyse? Haha, you've got to be kidding me.

amacachi

murpho999 wrote: »

Am I the only one who thinks of fondling breasts when you read that?:p

I think about farting.

hotmail.com

So no seats for the UUP? All that Conservative alliance was a waste of energy for the Tories.

dreamer_ire

steelcityblues wrote: »

Has McCrea won?

Not confirmed yet but likely

LordSutch

Looks like Sir Reg has 'possibly' lost out to William McCrae in South Antrim.

Still awaiting confirmation 01:55am.