UK Elections - Exit polls / First impressions / Constituency Results

TommyT

ynotdu wrote: »

I dont doubt what You say TommyT,ut do You know why? Personal or political?

Political. Been reading about it on a motoring forum, though the politics section is very busy tonight.
Brown is hated by middle England.

TommyT

Camelot wrote: »

Looks like Sir Reg has 'possibly' lost out to William McCrae in South Antrim.

Still awaiting confirmation 01:55am.

Its still unconfirmed, but there is over 1000 votes in it.

Eliot Rosewater

Interesting comments on the BBC about the repercussions of a hypothetical Conservative government having only one MP in Scotland(as they only do know), and how it may add fuel to the Scottish nationalist movement.

TommyT

At best Belfast will now only have 1 Unionist MP. Though there is a slight possibility that Gerry Kelly may win in North Belfast. Who would have thought that a decade ago?
Kelly is the only Sinn Feiner that I would have any time for, so I wouldnt be too disappointed if he won.

steelcityblues

Listening to Margaret Hodge - saying Cameron has blown it. Don't be so sure Margaret :P

LordSutch

Conservative gain Loughborough from Labour.

DJCR

The swings are absolutly crazy tonight!!

LAB holds Tooting..... unreal!!

K-9

Amazing result for Alliance. There's hope yet.

ynotdu

TommyT wrote: »

Political. Been reading about it on a motoring forum, though the politics section is very busy tonight.
Brown is hated by middle England.

My own personal humble opinion is that some 'Little Englanders' would prefer not to have a Scotsman as their PM if He was Jesus Christ.{besides all the other reasons Labour were bound to be badly bruised}

amacachi

TommyT wrote: »

At best Belfast will now only have 1 Unionist MP. Though there is a slight possibility that Gerry Kelly may win in North Belfast. Who would have thought that a decade ago?
Kelly is the only Sinn Feiner that I would have any time for, so I wouldnt be too disappointed if he won.

Can't see how Kelly has a chance tbh.

DJCR

Brown hated by middle England

Don't think he was ever liked there - cities he's ok .... country, conservative heartland!!

loldog

Gerald Scarfe - a legend.

.

steelcityblues

Newbury - Tory target seat, but held by a Lib Dem

loldog

DJCR wrote: »

Don't think he was ever liked there - cities he's ok .... country, conservative heartland!!

When Labour win, they win in the cities, they don't even try in the shires.

.

DJCR

Labour are really scrapping for their seats !!!

Narrow victories starting to crop up all over the place.

TommyT

amacachi wrote: »

Can't see how Kelly has a chance tbh.

I couldnt see a Naomi Long victory 2 hrs ago. Anything is possible, though Dodds has been one of the better Unionists and hasnt been affected by any sleaze in the run up to the election.
A Sinn Fein victory is North Belfast is only an outside bet, but it may not be beyond them in the coming years.

amacachi

TommyT wrote: »

I couldnt see a Naomi Long victory 2 hrs ago. Anything is possible, though Dodds has been one of the better Unionists and hasnt been affected by any sleaze in the run up to the election.
A Sinn Fein victory is North Belfast is only an outside bet, but it may not be beyond them in the coming years.

Well I'm just looking at the last few votes, fair enough it was hard to see so many voters swinging to the Alliance, but is there really any chance of Unionist voters swinging to Sinn Féin?


Labour holding a fair few of the the Tories top targets.

loldog

DJCR wrote: »

Labour are really scrapping for their seats !!!

Narrow victories starting to crop up all over the place.

Their electoral machine is as good as FF, here in London they were much more visible on the streets than any of the other parties.

.

TommyT

SDLP looking like a safe bet in my home constituency of South Down. Tactical voting by Unionists helping Margaret Ritchie.

I`d vote for Natasha Sayee ;-)

DJCR

loldog wrote: »

When Labour win, they win in the cities, they don't even try in the shires.

.

Yeah, Brown is a bit lumbersome.... he may find it hard not to stamp on the little people and their head Hobbit - I mean really, who wants a cottage with one rich hobbit when you can have an empire!!!!

:D:D:D

amacachi

Crowd in Glasgow East are ****ing class. :pac:

Happy Monday

ynotdu wrote: »

My own personal humble opinion is that some 'Little Englanders' would prefer not to have a Scotsman as their PM if He was Jesus Christ.{besides all the other reasons Labour were bound to be badly bruised}

Although Tony Blair was born in Scotland....
I don't know if Brown is hated by Middle England but he certainly failed to connect with or convince Middle England. But remember Labour is struggling in their heartlands in the North of England as well which tend to less middle class and more working class. Brown's problems have more to do with the financial crisis, job losses, recession. If things were fine economically his Scottishness would not be an issue.

ynotdu

loldog wrote: »

Their electoral machine is as good as FF, here in London they were much more visible on the streets than any of the other parties.

.

Lol loldog comparing them with the FF machine is high praise indeed!:D

TommyT

amacachi wrote: »

Well I'm just looking at the last few votes, fair enough it was hard to see so many voters swinging to the Alliance, but is there really any chance of Unionist voters swinging to Sinn Féin?

Voter apathy among the DUP supporters? Its a long shot, a very long shot, but who would have thought that Belfast would only have one unionist MP when it once had 3 and Gerry Fitt.

TommyT

Ulster Unionists concede Antrim South. They have been wiped out in the last 2 elections.

DJCR

loldog wrote: »

Their electoral machine is as good as FF, here in London they were much more visible on the streets than any of the other parties.

.

Funny you should say that - I'd say this election will be a good forcaster as to what will happen here when we get the chance to vote.

I mean the similarities are pretty freaky,

Same Issues:

Banking Crisis, Employment etc.

Same Party "vote share" in the polls - FF even gone into third behind Labour :eek::eek::eek:

Not to mention the really ugly old dudes in office and the opposition retards that no one would trust either - watch the Labour vote fall away while we go back to voting as mammy and daddy did!!! :rolleyes::rolleyes::rolleyes:

steelcityblues

Does Cameron know about all these NI results?

DJCR

steelcityblues wrote: »

Does Cameron know about all these NI results?

And what seems to be a SNP clean up on Scotland - they hacent taken one of their target seats yet!

TommyT

Swing to the Tories now looking like 3%, hung parliament now looking likely. So much for my earlier predicttion.

ynotdu

steelcityblues wrote: »

Does Cameron know about all these NI results?

Does He know where N Ireland is:)

DJCR

TommyT wrote: »

Swing to the Tories now looking like 3%, hung parliament now looking likely. So much for my earlier predicttion.

Don't think we have hit many marginals yet, or Tory heartland!!

steelcityblues

Lab hold Dumfries and Galloway - no Tory seats North of the border probably now!

TommyT

Shannon wins Strangford.

not bakunin

Latest:

Lab - 37
Tory - 20
LD - 4
Others - 15

Labour have finally broken even, Tories up 3%, LDs down 1

loldog

High turnout must have favoured Labour. So much for Cleggmania too, another media invention.:rolleyes:

.

Amirani

Tory majority available at 3/1 on Betfair now. If you're gonna get on, get on now.

steelcityblues

steelcityblues wrote: »

Does Cameron know about all these NI results?

How do you mean?

TommyT

Aberconwy Tory gain

steelcityblues

Deleted User wrote: »

How do you mean?

The UUP are getting a beating up there!

DJCR

niallsparky wrote: »

Tory majority available at 3/1 on Betfair now. If you're gonna get on, get on now.

I really hope it doesn't happen - and I'm starting to lean to the perception that it probably won't happen !!:D:D

sceptre

DJCR wrote: »

And what seems to be a SNP clean up on Scotland - they hacent taken one of their target seats yet!

In Scotland they're not going to. Labour will still be massively the biggest party in Scotland after the election, followed by the SNP and LDs. The conservatives will do well to hold on to their single Scottish seat.

Labour hold Bolton NE (only a 1.3% swing to Conservative, nowhere near enough but about 4000 votes). If they manage to hold Bolton W as well, the conservatives will be kicking furniture with venom.

Meanwhile Lembit Opik is out in Montgomeryshire, conservative gain there. You should have heard of him when he ran for LD party president but in case that means nothing to you, he's the one who was going out with one or other of the Cheeky Girls and is afraid of falling asteroids.

Again... no useful pattern:)

DJCR

Tory Gains targets:

Basildon South
Glamorgan

both from Labour!!

Just after my last post.... typical !!!

steelcityblues

CON gain in Montgomeryshire (don't ask me where that is!)

TommyT

SDLP hold Foyle. Just. Surely McGuinness could win that seat?

niallsparky

niallsparky wrote: »

Tory majority available at 3/1 on Betfair now. If you're gonna get on, get on now.

I have hung parliament at 11/8

murpho999

Lembit Opik gone....never liked him! Tory Gain!

Amirani

Lib Dems really are doing miserably.

Happy Monday

DJCR wrote: »

Funny you should say that - I'd say this election will be a good forcaster as to what will happen here when we get the chance to vote.

I mean the similarities are pretty freaky,

Same Issues:

Banking Crisis, Employment etc.

Same Party "vote share" in the polls - FF even gone into third behind Labour :eek::eek::eek:

Not to mention the really ugly old dudes in office and the opposition retards that no one would trust either - watch the Labour vote fall away while we go back to voting as mammy and daddy did!!! :rolleyes::rolleyes::rolleyes:

Remember though that the first past the post system undermines the Liberal Democrats party - 25% vote could result in 10% of the seats.

That kind of vote here would see Labour on 40 or more seats and in a powerful position to partake in government.

TommyT

McCrae result official now.

TommyT

Tamworth Tory gain