summer outlook

km79

has anyone been brave enough to predict the summer weather???

PCPhoto

km79 wrote: »

has anyone been brave enough to predict the summer weather???

in ireland ? Sunny with scattered showers and some overlying cloud, winds heavy at times, possibility of heavy showers and hail.


rest of the world - warm, sunny.

Danno

June - dry and warm
July - mild and cloudy
August - thundery

Joe Public

see http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2055873042

ednwireland

PCPhoto wrote: »

in ireland ? Sunny with scattered showers and some overlying cloud, winds heavy at times, possibility of heavy showers and hail.


rest of the world - warm, sunny.

even the souther hemisphere ? :rolleyes:

irishdub14

No please dont make these threads......


..... there so depressing.... :(:(

koHd

PCPhoto wrote: »

in ireland ? Sunny with scattered showers and some overlying cloud, winds heavy at times, possibility of heavy showers and hail.


rest of the world - warm, sunny.

This. Pretty much spot on. Except he forgot the snow and flooding.

Deep Easterly

The Norwegian Met Service reckons, through the ECMWF model, that temps will be around, or a little above average for the period covering May to July this year:



The overall forecast pattern for the period seems to suggest that blocking to the NW will be a feature of the early summer with troughing to the east of Britian and into Scandinavia.

That could be all bollix though!

thetonynator

Judging by the other thread running here . . .snow????

df1985

feckin cold is my official outlook!

pauldry

Id say it should be drier than past ones. basis? none.

June - Some warm dry spells .heavy showers too.
July - Warm and Dry at first rain 2nd half
August - Cool mixture of dry and wet.

OVERALL - TEMPS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
RAINFALL - NORMAL:cool:

M.T. Cranium

I will go out on a limb and say near average for the three month period June to August, and a warm September to follow. After the spell of heat in late May and early June last summer, there were very few "hot" days but there may be a few more this year than last year and closer to the usual time for heat to develop, late July into August. But I don't see this turning into a blazing hot summer either. Fingers crossed it might be on the warm, dry and sunny side of average but not that far from average.

Graces7

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

I will go out on a limb and say near average for the three month period June to August, and a warm September to follow. After the spell of heat in late May and early June last summer, there were very few "hot" days but there may be a few more this year than last year and closer to the usual time for heat to develop, late July into August. But I don't see this turning into a blazing hot summer either. Fingers crossed it might be on the warm, dry and sunny side of average but not that far from average.

That'll do very nicely!

Kenring

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

I will go out on a limb and say near average for the three month period June to August, and a warm September to follow. After the spell of heat in late May and early June last summer, there were very few "hot" days but there may be a few more this year than last year and closer to the usual time for heat to develop, late July into August. But I don't see this turning into a blazing hot summer either. Fingers crossed it might be on the warm, dry and sunny side of average but not that far from average.

Hi MTC
Largely I agree, except for what you say about September, when Cavan, Leitrum and Roscommon may see early snow. For Ireland I have been saying for over a year now that summer will kick in after the 25th of this month and intensify over the next two weeks, followed by another fortnight a month later. The warmest month may be June, because of the combination of full moon in southern declination. After that many fine weather spells, more than 2009, but also some heavy rainy spells, e.g. across the country with flooding mid-June and mid-July. Nor will it end there! However, if solar cycle #24 gets itself into gear perhaps winter will probably be milder than the last.
Ken Ring
www.predictweather.com

km79

Kenring wrote: »

Hi MTC
Largely I agree, except for what you say about September, when Cavan, Leitrum and Roscommon may see early snow. For Ireland I have been saying for over a year now that summer will kick in after the 25th of this month and intensify over the next two weeks, followed by another fortnight a month later. The warmest month may be June, because of the combination of full moon in southern declination. After that many fine weather spells, more than 2009, but also some heavy rainy spells, e.g. across the country with flooding mid-June and mid-July. Nor will it end there! However, if solar cycle #24 gets itself into gear perhaps winter will probably be milder than the last.
Ken Ring
www.predictweather.com

nor will it end there??? do you mean the flooding you mentioned?

Gonzo

Ireland
June - warm and sunny spells
July - feeling mild with heavy downpours at times
August - often very wet, windy and cool, a distinct feel of autumn in the air. Temperatures struggling to reach 18C most days.

London & The South-East
June - warm or very warm
July - thunderstorms and some hot weather (36C a few times)
August - thundry outbreaks, feeling very warm at times.

Kenring

km79 wrote: »

nor will it end there??? do you mean the flooding you mentioned?

Flooding is most likely with king tides plus heavy rain. King tides between now and November will occur at times of the combination of perigee+new moon. Yes, I have the potential for flooding in other months as well. There is more about it in the pages of my 440-page Ireland 2010 almanac and I have a few copies still available.
www.predictweather.com

pauldry

Hi Ken,

You said the end of May would be good so credit to ya. It doesnt look like we will get these sort of temperatures again for at least 3 or 4 weeks though. We may get 20 again but 24 and 25 widely is gone for nearly a month. Hope that end of June and July provide some good hot weather.

I would think we will see at least one more hot spell this Summer but there will not be 1976,83,84,95,03 style Summer

Kenring

pauldry wrote: »

Hi Ken,

You said the end of May would be good so credit to ya. It doesnt look like we will get these sort of temperatures again for at least 3 or 4 weeks though. We may get 20 again but 24 and 25 widely is gone for nearly a month. Hope that end of June and July provide some good hot weather.

But that is what I did say. The warmest will be the last week of June. And that's 4 weeks away.
www.predictweather.com

Joe Public

Kenring wrote: »

Hi MTC
Largely I agree, except for what you say about September, when Cavan, Leitrum and Roscommon may see early snow. For Ireland I have been saying for over a year now that summer will kick in after the 25th of this month and intensify over the next two weeks, followed by another fortnight a month later. The warmest month may be June, because of the combination of full moon in southern declination. After that many fine weather spells, more than 2009, but also some heavy rainy spells, e.g. across the country with flooding mid-June and mid-July. Nor will it end there! However, if solar cycle #24 gets itself into gear perhaps winter will probably be milder than the last.
Ken Ring
www.predictweather.com

The previous 46 winters were milder than last winter so there's a fair good chance next winter will be milder than last.

Snow in September? That's a bit cruel, you could be responsible for bringing the snow addicts out of an early hibernation:)

Here's looking forward to a better June, July, August spell than 2007/8/9

pauldry

yes Ken id agree with that. i run my own weather predictions in line with weather patterns, weather websites, past weather patterns and based on some of the stuff the educated boards members do say and i must say that wetterzentrale are very good as well as the bbc and uk met office.

From all this data I just think that 3 or 4 weeks of temperatures where there is no prolonged spell of hot temps is likely. Whether there is a real hot spell at the end of June like you say is quite hard to measure as I dont really see too far past a month and just guesstimate as best I can. But you are the man in the know and you have a good track record in the past as well as being able to do your tide readings which is way beyond my skill levels.

So just to end my speech let the warm spell comes at the end of June just like you say and I hope!:cool:

pauldry

Kenring wrote: »

But that is what I did say. The warmest will be the last week of June. And that's 4 weeks away.
www.predictweather.com

btw I was quotin this not the snow. theres no way you will be right there ...dont care if Im drunk. snow in September? FI as they say here

Kenring

pauldry wrote: »

btw I was quotin this not the snow. theres no way you will be right there ...dont care if Im drunk. snow in September? FI as they say here

Perhaps you have jumped to a wrong conclusion about what I said. The September snow will not be widespread, and only in the three central regions I quoted. It will be around new moon+perigee time which is a snow breeder, propelled by a southward trekking moon that will be dragging cold polar air over the country. Most other places should get first snow indications in the last week of October.
September snow is rare but not unheard of. I would have thought September 1948, 1957, 1966 and 1975 may have seen some.
FI? - not familiar with that
cheers
Ken
www.predictweather.com

paulhac

FI=Fantasy Island. The term is used to describe LRF's beyond a week or so.

Kenring

paulhac wrote: »

FI=Fantasy Island. The term is used to describe LRF's beyond a week or so.

Thanks for that. So how come the Irish summer is happening just at the time we said it would come? And why do Met Eireann make projections beyond a week?
By what logic can it be said that whereas tides can be predicted several years ahead, although the air is interfaced to the sea and so also must have a tide, still that tide cannot be subject to any prediction? You are virtually saying that tides can only be predicted for a week because they are not that good at maths, so they can only predict themselves to be regular for a week ahead, then after that these gormless waves give up and come in and out whenever they feel like it. Anything more demanding than that does their head in.
That's real FI to me..

www.predictweather.com

paulhac

FI is commonly used on fora such as this one . Say for example GFS throws up a scenario on a given run of a large area of HP over Ireland two weeks out. Then the next run shows up an area of LP for the same date. The following run might be different again, so you cant be certain what the outcome will be .As far as your forecasts are concerned I would'nt use FI to describe them because they have been pretty accurate. Keep 'em commin'!

Kenring

paulhac wrote: »

FI is commonly used on fora such as this one . Say for example GFS throws up a scenario on a given run of a large area of HP over Ireland two weeks out. Then the next run shows up an area of LP for the same date. The following run might be different again, so you cant be certain what the outcome will be .As far as your forecasts are concerned I would'nt use FI to describe them because they have been pretty accurate. Keep 'em commin'!

You cannot base a longrange forecast on what is happening today, which is what GFS tries to do. If I came into your office today and photographed everybody sitting in their seats, I couldn't look into that photo and declare who was going to sitting in the same seats tomorrow or a week ahead, let alone all summer. But that's what regular forecasters try to do. They don't see rain until it's on the radar, and that's just a more expensive way of looking out the window.
cheers
Ken

91011

The end of May has traditionally been one of the best periods of weather in ireland - anyone can predict that.

Even in the bad summers of 07/08/09 the end of May was relatively good.

Its organised by outer being to ensure that student sweat in their exams

Kenring

91011 wrote: »

The end of May has traditionally been one of the best periods of weather in ireland - anyone can predict that.

Even in the bad summers of 07/08/09 the end of May was relatively good.

Its organised by outer being to ensure that student sweat in their exams

Hmm.. I just glanced at a random handful of back-data, and the end of May of these years 1995, 1996, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001 was pretty wet. So I think you'd come unstuck if you made it a predictive rule.
cheers

Deep Easterly

Kenring wrote: »

Hmm.. I just glanced at a random handful of back-data, and the end of May of these years 1995, 1996, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001 was pretty wet. So I think you'd come unstuck if you made it a predictive rule.
cheers

I think you missed the irony contained within the post you responded too.

Su Campu

Kenring wrote: »

Thanks for that. So how come the Irish summer is happening just at the time we said it would come? And why do Met Eireann make projections beyond a week?
By what logic can it be said that whereas tides can be predicted several years ahead, although the air is interfaced to the sea and so also must have a tide, still that tide cannot be subject to any prediction? You are virtually saying that tides can only be predicted for a week because they are not that good at maths, so they can only predict themselves to be regular for a week ahead, then after that these gormless waves give up and come in and out whenever they feel like it. Anything more demanding than that does their head in.
That's real FI to me..

www.predictweather.com

I have a problem with some of what you say. You say the sea and atmosphere are attached - correct. And there are well known interactions between the to, such as sensible heat flux, moisture exchange, etc. I'm puzzled though as to the physics of how the atmosphere's tide can be solidly and reliably linked to that of the ocean? Explain the physics of this interaction, as this is what you base your methods on.

And just as you say we can predict ocean tides years in advance, we cannot predict small scale disturbances in the ocean the same way. Likewise your forecasts - I find it FI myself that you can say with confidence that a certain county will have snow in September and the others not. That to me is the real definition of FI.