summer outlook

Kenring

thetonynator wrote: »

Only the first link works for me ken???

What happens if you go to my website page with them on first, and try from there?
http://www.predictweather.co.nz/Arti...=290&type=home

thetonynator

ch750536 wrote: »

copy & paste the whole line

Kenring wrote: »

What happens if you go to my website page with them on first, and try from there?
http://www.predictweather.co.nz/Arti...=290&type=home

Have it now;)

Su Campu

Kenring wrote: »

From my longrange point of view, heavy rains are due from mid August to September. From mid July-mid August is expected to be cloudy, then a reburst of sunshine is likely from mid August to mid September. From October the sunshine quickly declines. Temperatures are peaking now and should from now on decline, more rapidly so in October. Air frosts increase from October onwards. Seasons are beginning later and ending later, as dictated by the advancing lunar combinations that see phase coupled with apsidal lines. It is a 9-10 year turnaround. I am attaching my Armagh graphs for 2010, for estimated rainfall, sunshine, temperatures and air frost timings.
www.predictweather.com

If I may be so bold as to ask a question, are the parts in bold above correct? Heavy rains and sunshine at the same time?

Not a personal attack, just seeking a clarification.

mike65

Looking at the GSF it appears the jet-stream is firmly back in its slightly annoying position bringing the nothernly latitude weather near us or over us.

Kenring

Su Campu wrote: »

If I may be so bold as to ask a question, are the parts in bold above correct? Heavy rains and sunshine at the same time?
Not a personal attack, just seeking a clarification.

Not necessarily at the same time, nor the same place. I'm talking about the whole country, and trends indicated by the graphs I sent links for. The nature of longrange is to discuss trends, not the type of detail one may be used to expect from ME reports and others who provide short and extended range services. Any detail that I employ is as a point of focus of a general tendency. It would probably not withstand meticulous dissection and scrutiny. Does that help?

Kenring

mike65 wrote: »

Looking at the GSF it appears the jet-stream is firmly back in its slightly annoying position bringing the nothernly latitude weather near us or over us.

My almanac's today's map shows the looming system sitting and building to the west, but has it passing to the north over the next few days and leaving the country relatively unscathed. The moon is trekking north and picking up speed, so it would be more likely to keep the low to the north. It would also fall within my margin of error for it to affect the country but I would opt for it either not doing so or with minimal impact.

Su Campu

Kenring wrote: »

Not necessarily at the same time, nor the same place. I'm talking about the whole country, and trends indicated by the graphs I sent links for. The nature of longrange is to discuss trends, not the type of detail one may be used to expect from ME reports and others who provide short and extended range services. Any detail that I employ is as a point of focus of a general tendency. It would probably not withstand meticulous dissection and scrutiny. Does that help?

Fair enough, no problem

Lumi

Oh I don't know! - all this fuss and botheration over the 'ins and outs', 'rights and wrongs' of various forecasting methods.

FYI I've attached a copy of my own preferred method, the accuracy and veracity of which is readily attested by my sterling performance in the Boards.ie forecast competition!!!;):D

J1

I started a new thread on this but reading this thread I should have posted here. Every year I go to Tragumna for the last 2 weeks in July (just south of Skiberreen West Cork). It is apparently in the Gulf Stream and for some reason no matter the weather everywhere else we get fabulous sunshine every year. We wake up to the forecast telling us everyday that the rain is coming etc etc but it never happens. We could drive 20 mins down the rd and it could be raining but in Tragumna the beach is full and it is lovely.
So my questions are i) can anyone explain this phenomenan, is it the Gulf Stream and what does that mean? There are even palm trees growing there and huge giant flowers. ii) Can anyone predict the weather for there for the last 2 wks in July as general forecasts don't work as it seems to have a climate of it's own.

WolfeIRE

answered in the original thread you started.

Deep Easterly

mike65 wrote: »

Looking at the GSF it appears the jet-stream is firmly back in its slightly annoying position bringing the nothernly latitude weather near us or over us.

Latest charts seem to suggest a more normal set up for the next few days with Ireland between high to the south and lows to the north.

Not ideal, but this pattern has a better chance of scooping up some proper heat from the south down the line than was the case when the damnable block lodged itself to our W/NW for much of the year.

WolfeIRE

Published at 10:00, 5 July
(Next update at 10:00, 12 July)
Written by Peter Gibbs

Summary

Rain a distant memory for southern areas

Watch the waves lapping on to a beach and you'll notice that although each one washes a different distance up the sand, there's always a line beyond which your feet will stay dry.
Increased mobility in the Atlantic weather patterns means that rain-bearing fronts will be washing across the UK from time to time over the next few weeks, but it looks as if the parched southeast will stay above the high tide line.
Monday 5 July 2010 to Sunday 11 July 2010
Rain for northwest, but the southeast bakes

It's a classic summer pattern this week, with a ridge extending from the Azores high pressure system across southern areas, while the jetstream steers Atlantic depressions across the north.
Some parts of northwest Britain may see as much as 100mm of rain through the course of the week, helping to boost water resources but not such good news for holidaymakers. It will also be rather windy at times.
The fronts will weaken as they push southeastwards into high pressure, leaving no more than residual cloud across England and Wales.
Temperatures should be mostly near the July average, although it looks as if southern Britain will start to turn hotter at the end of the week as air is drawn in from the near continent. This may be the trigger for a few thundery showers to develop over the weekend, but this is the only real hope for any significant rain in the southeast.

Monday 12 July 2010 to Sunday 18 July 2010
Rain stays in the north

The north and west of the UK will remain fairly unsettled throughout the period, with showers or longer periods of rain, some which may be heavy. It will also be windy at times, with a chance of gales in the far north and northwest at first.
Elsewhere, it should be more settled with generally dry weather and sunny periods, the most prolonged of these across southern and eastern parts of the UK. The chance of thundery showers continues into the first part of the week, but these will be very hit and miss.
Temperatures are expected to be around normal for the time of year in the northwest where cloudier conditions prevail. Elsewhere it should be warmer, and hot in the southeast at first.

Monday 19 July 2010 to Sunday 1 August 2010
Sunny start to school holidays

There are indications that there may be a good deal of dry and warm weather during the second half of July and into the start of August, with many places seeing temperatures above normal for much of the period.
Some areas will be drier than normal with average or below average rainfall, although more unsettled conditions may well persist for longer in western Scotland and Northern Ireland.
Sunshine amounts look to be around normal for this time of year across Northern Ireland and Scotland but are likely to be somewhat above average in England and Wales.

mike65

Be nice to see that ridge nudge up just a little (for the sunny south East!)