I never want to work again

Woddle

So I've been playing around since xmas, I've tried alot of staking plans and various different ways to pick a horse but now I have my own little maths system combined with the horses form and ability, Tom Segal reckons ability is the main thing in his selections. I'll be putting 2k into betfair later, my plan is to make 50 euro a day or 2.5% of bank. I'll be betting in 2 ways win only for 5/1 shots and lower (won't go under 2/1) and for my longer shots I'll be using a 75% place 25% win based on Nick Shiambouros patent 80/20.

The 2.5 % is based on a guy called Peter Brennan who deals in shares and stuff and trades on a philosophy of 2% a day. I went to a seminar of his a couple of months back and found it interesting enough, he preached alot about risk management, I should probably add that I did ask him about betfair and he does not see it as trading but as gambling, that's were we differ as I saw alot of similarities between what he does and what I do. http://www.target2percentaday.com/

Also when I make my 50 euro or 2.5% thats me done for the day.
Selections to follow.

I should also add that these are all handicaps and I seem to be better at all weather and jumps than the turf flat, although it does seem to be getting slightly better.

Woddle

3'30-wol-Dazzling begum-75/25
3'40-Brig-Wind star-75/25
3'50-Red-Peters gift-75/25
4'10-Brig-Freedom fire-win only
4'30-wol-Mary helen-75/25
4'40-Brig-Ocean countess-win only
4'50-Red-Caldercruix-win only
5'10-Brig-Peppanan-win only-nap
5'20-Red-Eeny mac-75/25
5'30-wol-Barbirolli-75/25
5'50-Red-Elegant dancer-win only
6'10-wind-Buffett-win only
7'00-Tow-Well mick-75/25
7'10-wind-Gordon flash-75/25
7'30-Tow-Miss mamma wagga-win only
8'10-wind-The shuffler-win only

Verance

Woddle wrote: »

Also when I make my 50 euro or 2.5% thats me done for the day.

From my experience, trying to make a certain amount everyday is very difficult. What if one of your best selections is running after you have made the 2.5%?
It will also cause you to chase your losses, which is defintely to be avoided.

Woddle

Verance wrote: »

From my experience, trying to make a certain amount everyday is very difficult. What if one of your best selections is running after you have made the 2.5%?
It will also cause you to chase your losses, which is defintely to be avoided.

Absolutely agree but I can't find a staking plan that suits me and that I feel comfortable with, thats why I reckon 50 euro is not a bad number but I may still lower it yet. I've been playing around with a 100 euro(trying to make 2.50)for the last 2 weeks and during that period my longest losing streak was 10 losers in a row but I still made my 2.50, I'm picking a good share of longer shots and I refuse to bet under 2/1 as this would hammer my bank.
Really appreciate your imput and would appreciate all and more comments. You seem to know what your talking about so I've def taken a mental note.Cheers

Woddle

Verance wrote: »

From my experience, trying to make a certain amount everyday is very difficult. What if one of your best selections is running after you have made the 2.5%?
.

Tis another good point but hopefully I'll be happy with my 50 for the day, I do get a bit of satisfaction out of known I've picked a winner and not had money on it.

Murilloinf

hey, not a gambler myself, so just wondering.. what does 75/25 means on your first selection ?

Woddle

Murilloinf wrote: »

hey, not a gambler myself, so just wondering.. what does 75/25 means on your first selection ?

75% of your stake on the place and 25% on the win
An each way bet would be 50% of your stake on the win and 50% on the place

Murilloinf

understood, well looks reasonable, really hope this work out for you, looks like you worked hard on it, and IMO any hard worked should be compensated.

To succeed long term you must get away from daily targets, as a gambler you must appreciate that some days you may have no winners and others you may have a few, so having a daily target that you will stop at it looney really. Also if you have 16 fancies in a day I think you are not being selective enough, I'd find it hard to pick out 4 horses a day and like yourself I try to stick to handicaps. Place markets are very hard to make profit on for level stakes. Not wanting to offend but if you have so many selections each day and stop every day when you make €50 your €2000 betting bank won't last 2 months. For you to succeed I would think you need to
- firstly you need to be far far more selective about your selections, you fancy too many horses. If all your selections are handicaps (I haven't checked) from todays cards you must have a fancy in nearly every race, if so I'm not even going to go into that one
- you must get away from the stopping when you make your €50 target, not a good idea, having made your target does not make the rest of your selctions any worse than when you picked them.

Few interesting figures for you, Barney Curley claimed that to make the £500,000 he needed to run his yard for a year he had to gamble £3,000,000, if you consider that he was betting mainly on his own horses which he knew more about than anyone else that is a fairly startling set of numbers.

Also any successful (very few are) part time gamblers can testify that to make say €400/month consistently they probably gamble close to €3000 month at a minimum.

To summarise, with €2000 betting bank with the amount of selections you have there is no way you are going to make €1000/month

I just had a look at todays cards, from 17 HCs you have a selection in 15 of them, seriously that is looney, novice gambler territory, not wanting to sound harsh but that €2000 won't last long at all. Far far too many selections.

Woddle

Again some very good comments and observations and I'm in complete agreement with you, I do select far too many. The reason for this is that I apply the same formula to every handicap race and pick the top horse in the maths but maybe I should investigate picking the 5 horses for the day and pick the ones that are most clear in my formula. From my brief time of messing around it takes me 3.9 races before I get a winner, I do not count the placed horses in this statistic.
Some very interesting figures above and I am a little uncertain on what I should be targeting with 2k.
Also the reason I set up a limit to what I want to get is that one of the days last week, I won on the second race but continued on and I then had 10 losers in a row.

Woddle

All selections
3'30-wol-Dazzling begum-75/25
3'40-Brig-Wind star-75/25
3'50-Red-Peters gift-75/25
4'10-Brig-Freedom fire-win only
4'30-wol-Mary helen-75/25
4'40-Brig-Ocean countess-win only
4'50-Red-Caldercruix-win only
5'10-Brig-Peppanan-win only-nap
5'20-Red-Eeny mac-75/25
5'30-wol-Barbirolli-75/25
5'50-Red-Elegant dancer-win only
6'10-wind-Buffett-win only
7'00-Tow-Well mick-75/25
7'10-wind-Gordon flash-75/25
7'30-Tow-Miss mamma wagga-win only
8'10-wind-The shuffler-win only

Most clear in my maths ( started with most clear)
5'50-Red-Elegant dancer
5'10-Brig-Peppanan
4'10-Brig-Freedom fire
4'40-Brig-Ocean countess
5'20-Red-Eeny mac

POINTBREAK

I am kind of with Rover James on this one Woodle, but I don't agree with what he says on handicaps. The first thing that strikes me is 50 a day is 17,500 a year and to get that, you are more than likely going to have to turn over 175k in bets. That's 3500 a week in turnover based on an ROI of 10%. One bad week wipes you out.
I'm not sure I agree with you on your reading of Tom Segal. The whole point behind Pricewise is value, not so much ability. I remember reading an interview with Segal and he was asked if there was a race with Gallileo at 1/5 and the 2nd favourite at 5/1 . Which one would he tip. and he said obviously the 5/1 chance.

POINTBREAK

Woddle wrote: »

3'30-wol-Dazzling begum-75/25
3'40-Brig-Wind star-75/25
3'50-Red-Peters gift-75/25
4'10-Brig-Freedom fire-win only
4'30-wol-Mary helen-75/25
4'40-Brig-Ocean countess-win only
4'50-Red-Caldercruix-win only
5'10-Brig-Peppanan-win only-nap
5'20-Red-Eeny mac-75/25
5'30-wol-Barbirolli-75/25
5'50-Red-Elegant dancer-win only
6'10-wind-Buffett-win only
7'00-Tow-Well mick-75/25
7'10-wind-Gordon flash-75/25
7'30-Tow-Miss mamma wagga-win only
8'10-wind-The shuffler-win only

Are you having 1700 in bets today?

POINTBREAK

POINTBREAK wrote: »

I am kind of with Rover James on this one Woodle, but I don't agree with what he says on handicaps.

What did I say about handicaps that you don't agree on ? I didn't say anything specific about handicaps ?

L'prof

POINTBREAK wrote: »

Are you having 1700 in bets today?

They're percentages of his stake...not sure what his stake is.

Woddle

Back to paper trading for the rest of the day, although I have placed my first bet as I won't be around at 3'30. Maybe after the days racing or even at the end of the week we might all have a chat and see what is the best approach, I am very happy with the method I use to select a horse but its the rest that gets me, I am open to ideas but I'll keep track of how I get on and I'd love to discuss it with you guys again.

Woddle

POINTBREAK wrote: »

Are you having 1700 in bets today?

The first bet was 2.25 on the win and 6.75 on the place. My logic was if I lost that I would now be trying to win back 59. Def paper trading for the rest of the day, doubting myself big time, big difference in messing around with a 100 to a 1000, I only deposited a k instead of the 2. Really enjoying your comments

POINTBREAK

RoverJames wrote: »

What did I say about handicaps that you don't agree on ? I didn't say anything specific about handicaps ?

just had a look at todays cards, from 17 HCs you have a selection in 15 of them, seriously that is looney, novice gambler territory, not wanting to sound harsh but that €2000 won't last long at all. Far far too many selections.

Sorry it looks like I misunderstood you. Your point was the number of bets, not the h/caps?

L'prof

Woddle wrote: »

The first bet was 2.25 on the win and 6.75 on the place. My logic was if I lost that I would now be trying to win back 59. Def paper trading for the rest of the day, doubting myself big time, big difference in messing around with a 100 to a 1000, I only deposited a k instead of the 2. Really enjoying your comments

When you say you want to make 2.5% of your bank per day, essentially that means taking your bank from €B to 8207.5*€B in a year unless you only mean to make 2.5% of your original bank per day and that would be 9.125*€B in a year. Massive differences here, so I was just wondering if you could clarify that.

Just curious, but have you been following horse racing / betting for long ? Being honest I was following it for about 5 years before I actually had a clue, also being honest I always thought I had a clue but it's only after 5 years that I actually did. I'm at it 8 years now and would consider myself shrewd enough, over the years by gambling habits have developed drastically, now I know what sort of races to bet on, what is a value price, what to avoid doing. I'm no where near your hit rate though, 1 in 6 is what I'm at but with loosing streaks longer than I'd like.

POINTBREAK

I had an interview with a Professional Gambler on Thursday night. (interview probably isn't the word since he took me out and got me drunk) We talked about betting most of the night and he agreed I could publish an interview with him on my website, so I am about to start a thread on what questions people would like answered if you are interested.

POINTBREAK

POINTBREAK wrote: »

just had a look at todays cards, from 17 HCs you have a selection in 15 of them, seriously that is looney, novice gambler territory, not wanting to sound harsh but that €2000 won't last long at all. Far far too many selections.

Sorry it looks like I misunderstood you. Your point was the number of bets, not the h/caps?

Yep
I prefer betting on HCs myself as generally you have a good lash of form to look at and there is often value, even on the fav in some cases.

I was on about having a fancy in 15 of 17 of the HCs on in a day was a bit looney

POINTBREAK

POINTBREAK wrote: »

I had an interview with a Professional Gambler on Thursday night. (interview probably isn't the word since he took me out and got me drunk) We talked about betting most of the night and he agreed I could publish an interview with him on my website, so I am about to start a thread on what questions people would like answered if you are interested.

Cool, link to the thread and the site please

POINTBREAK

http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2055907253

My site is http://pricewiseextra.info and I will post the interview on there when I get it finished.

Woddle

RoverJames wrote: »

Just curious, but have you been following horse racing / betting for long ?.

Hi roverjames, only since December of 09. Hopefully a few of my selections do well today, between yourself and pointbreak I've def decided to paper trade, not only for today but for the rest of the week, and within that week yous will be able to monitor my progress (which would be much appreciated), I'll keep doing all my selections but I'll pick my top 5, as time is a big issue and I don't want to be at the computer all day, so I'm in complete agreement that I pick too many.

Just a bit of a background, I'm a stay at home dad and have absolutely no desire to ever want to go back to work, so I've been working fairly hard since December trying to get the best results possible but I certainly am still a novice and my biggest problem to me is still my staking plan, so I would be up for debating with you guys again to help me and others get the best possible results.
My 3.9 strike rate as I said does not include the horses that place for me I just skip over them.
My last 10 days have been 7/5/3/5/9/2/3/1/1/3 (how many races had to take place before I had a winner) longest losing streak is 10 straight losers.

Your aim is the holy grail for all us punters
Another point I would make is that you should be very selective on what horses you back for a place, at time on betfair horses that are 4/1 in betting offices are 2.5 tbp on betfair, other 4/1s in other races could be odds on for the place on betfair, lots of factors influence this but in the morning if you pick a horse tbp set a target price that you want, a sort of minimum acceptable price.

Also as you have only 6 months or so of experience at this fascinating game I suggest you get down to the local library and read as many books on gambling etc that you can find. Most of them are crap but you will get some good bits from each book.

You're doing a lot that is good at the moment, staying away from short prices and not ignoring handicaps. Most of the all day betting office dwellers back short priced favs and stay away from handicaps so your on the right track by not following the herd

POINTBREAK

My 3.9 strike rate

I don't understand that? Do you mean 39%?

POINTBREAK

POINTBREAK wrote: »

My 3.9 strike rate

I don't understand that? Do you mean 39%?

Every 3.9 races/bets he has a winner, fairly impressive to be honest.

wingsof daun

RoverJames wrote: »

To succeed long term you must get away from daily targets, as a gambler you must appreciate that some days you may have no winners and others you may have a few, so having a daily target that you will stop at it looney really. Also if you have 16 fancies in a day I think you are not being selective enough, I'd find it hard to pick out 4 horses a day and like yourself I try to stick to handicaps.

Few interesting figures for you, Barney Curley claimed that to make the £500,000 he needed to run his yard for a year he had to gamble £3,000,000, if you consider that he was betting mainly on his own horses which he knew more about than anyone else that is a fairly startling set of numbers.

.

I wonder will Barney have a winner today? But to win 500,000 after gambling 3million is really a staggering amount of profit for long term betting.
I know a professional punter that very rarely bets in handicaps, he does very well in novice hurdles, he says to keep to those races.
GL

wingsof daun

wingsof daun wrote: »

I wonder will Barney have a winner today? But to win 500,000 after gambling 3million is really a staggering amount of profit for long term betting.

Do remember though that they were his own horses, also trained by him.

Woddle

Woddle wrote: »

3'30-wol-Dazzling begum-75/25
3'40-Brig-Wind star-75/25

35 euro back in the first 2 races both placed but got more back thanks to the 75/25.
Finished for the day now for sure. I only placed the second bet having seen the result of the first, paper trading from here on in.