Asking Price????

Blackjack

billybigunz wrote: »

800 let go in pfizer. Massive tax increases in the next 5 years. Zombie banks for the forseeable future. We have only started this journey.

Thats before we start having interest rate rises...

billybigunz

Yep, many other reasons.

House prices won't just fall to their historical level but overshoot this like all bubbles. So we can expect houses at 4 times average income. Of course average income will probably be 20% down on what it is now.

niallo27

Blackjack wrote: »

Thats before we start having interest rate rises...

Yes but will all the drops in ESB, phone charges, food prices, etc not offset interest rate increases, it is certainly a lot cheaper to live these days, i;m in full time employment and long live the rescission in my opinion

Blackjack

niallo27 wrote: »

Yes but will all the drops in ESB, phone charges, food prices, etc not offset interest rate increases, it is certainly a lot cheaper to live these days, i;m in full time employment and long live the rescission in my opinion

Not if you're paying a mortgage currently, no.

billybigunz

niallo27 wrote: »

Yes but will all the drops in ESB, phone charges, food prices, etc not offset interest rate increases, it is certainly a lot cheaper to live these days, i;m in full time employment and long live the rescission in my opinion

I can understand that. Back in the 'boom' I was always wishing we had the moribund growth of the german economy. Prices stayed the same every year, people got on with their lives. If you wanted to buy a house then you could, no hassle. Want a 60K apartment? Want a really nice 300K apartment? Yes or no the market will be the same in 12 months.

Were people ever really well off in Ireland? A 50K wage here left you with a lesser standard of living that somebody on 25K in germany.

niallo27

Blackjack wrote: »

Not if you're paying a mortgage currently, no.

If you buy now though maybe on 200 grand mortgage

648 at 3%
722 at 4%
806 at 5%

Are you saying you cant save 150 quid in shopping and other bills these days, i'm not saying it a great time to buy but things arent as bad as people think

mathie

TommyT wrote: »

When will we know when we have reached the bottom though? I reckon we are pretty close to the bottom, others like you say we are 40% too high as it stands. If the market were to fall by another 40% I would be delighted, I am renting after all. I just cannot see things falling that far. Everything is overpriced in this country, from a litre of milk to the cars we drive and the homes we live in. If house prices fall another 40% then I think we need everything to fall in line with them. Somehow I cannot see that happening, can you?

This is because you're used to bubble prices.
'Bubble'. Say the word to yourself a few times.
That's the journey we've been on.

A friend of mine paid just over 300K 11 years ago for a house that is now 'worth' over a million and at the peak was around 1.6 million.

So if that was to fall 40% it'd actually still be overpriced

In Japan 80 - 90% was wiped off the value of properties after their bubble popped and their lending multiples never reached the heights we saw here.

ricman

Lets say every house is worth 140, if someone wants to buy a home for 210 cos they want space. ie they dont want to live in an estate its not a disaster.
IF you are on a good income, take into account it may lose value by 20 per cent, interest rates can go up to say 6per cent.
People in the country can buy a house by itself on a site , no neighbours at all.I presume you are in permanent jobs.
IN the country you can buy detached houses on estates ,ie you share no walls with neighbours ,no risk of sounds waking you from next door.
NEW houses in the country tend to be bigger than dublin , you should look at the other houses for sale in the area for 180k be4 you decide on buying.
And it depends on your income too.

Blackjack

niallo27 wrote: »

If you buy now though maybe on 200 grand mortgage

648 at 3%
722 at 4%
806 at 5%

Are you saying you cant save 150 quid in shopping and other bills these days, i'm not saying it a great time to buy but things arent as bad as people think

Average prices is still over 200K.
Further, shopping prices haven't come down that much - you could always buy stuff cheap if you were willing to take the advice of - God forbid, Mary Harney - but people got too good for this and didn't want to bother.

Lidl and Aldi have been in the country for quite some time now you know. As long as people were willing to pay over the odds, retailers were more than willing to charge it.

ricman

The average price outside the citys for a 3bed semi is closer to 160k.

The_Conductor

Inflation is actually creeping back in the Irish economy (helped in no small part by ridiculous fuel prices). Its not a given that we can expect electricty/gas/phone/groceries to continue to fall in price. Also- normalisation of interest rates (according to the ECB) is ECB over night rates of ~4.5%- allowing a margin of 1.5-2% (which is normal- just because Irish banks were not charging it, does not mean they won't be made do so in future under state aid rules)- which would indicate a future normal retail interest rate in excess of 6%.

400,000 odd Public sector workers have seen their take home pay fall by between 18 and 26% in the past 18 months.
We now expect unemployment to peak at 13.7% but to remain above 10% through to the 2016 review- this represents another 410,000. Proposals are to cut the entitlements of these unemployed and also pensioners in the December budget- generating a saving of approx. 1.8 billion (and raise another 1.8 billion in taxes from those still in work).

There is an incredible amount of money being taken out of the economy- and we are signed up to do similar in 2011 and 2012- and continue to do so- until we reach are borrowing target (of a max of 3.5% of GDP). At the same time- money is incrementally becoming more expensive for both private individuals and the private sector in general- and both direct and indirect taxation is set to rise.

Both the employed and the unemployed, the pensioners and the youth- are all going to see their standards of living fall significantly over the next decade.

People are holding up hopes of a 3% increase in Irish GDP in 2011 as a bellweather of economic performance- we need roughly 3.5% just to stand still (at 3% we are looking at almost 1/4 of school leavers and graduates having to emigrate).

To date the private sector have in the main not cut wages- where conditions dictate financial prudence- companies have elected to make staff redundant rather than to cut their wages. These private sector employees are at present sustaining the nascent recovery in the services and retail sector.

People need to accept the levels of structural reform needed to make the Irish economy productive (and competitive) once again. Real wages need to fall in both the private and the public sector. Social welfare entitlements need to have an axe taken to them. The minimum wage needs to abolished- and the real cost of employing people needs to be addressed (possibly abolishing employers PRSI for employees who have been unemployed for over 6 months?)

When people laugh at the riots and anarchy in Greece- its ironic that we will not be far from these levels of public discontent- when it begins to dawn on folk, just how severe conditions are going to get here.

The public sector got a sweetheart deal in the Croke Park agreement- when the government undertook to not make further reductions to their pay for the duration of the agreement in return for modernisation etc. They don't fully realise just how good a deal it is- but they will. Sure they've been nobbled 3 fold already- but their cuts have already happened. The next pain is the unemployed, the pensioners, the private sector- and the public at large via tax increases.

Is a 40% fall in property prices from current levels possible? Hell yes, it is. Are public riots possible- look no further than the 22 people arrested outside the Houses of the Oireachtas last Wednesday...... Is anarchy possible? Given the level of private indebtedness, alongside public indebtedness- and the sense of injustice at the rescuing of the banking sector and property developers- anarchy could well ensue.

People need a defined roadmap- stretching into the future- where they can see precisely what the government intend to do- and draw their own conclusions as to how these managerial decisions will affect their daily lives. Unfortunately the government don't have the guts to tell it as it is to the public. Bad news gets drip fed on Friday afternoons, and any little bit of good news- such as more call centre jobs- gets heralded as the success of government policy in promoting the knowledge economy......

I firmly believe that we could well be 15 or 20 years in sorting out the current mess- and despite the hardships that would ensue- it would in fact be a good idea to invite the IMF in, as the current shower don't have the balls to take the tough actions that need to be taken.

S.

niallo27

smccarrick wrote: »

Inflation is actually creeping back in the Irish economy (helped in no small part by ridiculous fuel prices). Its not a given that we can expect electricty/gas/phone/groceries to continue to fall in price. Also- normalisation of interest rates (according to the ECB) is ECB over night rates of ~4.5%- allowing a margin of 1.5-2% (which is normal- just because Irish banks were not charging it, does not mean they won't be made do so in future under state aid rules)- which would indicate a future normal retail interest rate in excess of 6%.

400,000 odd Public sector workers have seen their take home pay fall by between 18 and 26% in the past 18 months.
We now expect unemployment to peak at 13.7% but to remain above 10% through to the 2016 review- this represents another 410,000. Proposals are to cut the entitlements of these unemployed and also pensioners in the December budget- generating a saving of approx. 1.8 billion (and raise another 1.8 billion in taxes from those still in work).

There is an incredible amount of money being taken out of the economy- and we are signed up to do similar in 2011 and 2012- and continue to do so- until we reach are borrowing target (of a max of 3.5% of GDP). At the same time- money is incrementally becoming more expensive for both private individuals and the private sector in general- and both direct and indirect taxation is set to rise.

Both the employed and the unemployed, the pensioners and the youth- are all going to see their standards of living fall significantly over the next decade.

People are holding up hopes of a 3% increase in Irish GDP in 2011 as a bellweather of economic performance- we need roughly 3.5% just to stand still (at 3% we are looking at almost 1/4 of school leavers and graduates having to emigrate).

To date the private sector have in the main not cut wages- where conditions dictate financial prudence- companies have elected to make staff redundant rather than to cut their wages. These private sector employees are at present sustaining the nascent recovery in the services and retail sector.

People need to accept the levels of structural reform needed to make the Irish economy productive (and competitive) once again. Real wages need to fall in both the private and the public sector. Social welfare entitlements need to have an axe taken to them. The minimum wage needs to abolished- and the real cost of employing people needs to be addressed (possibly abolishing employers PRSI for employees who have been unemployed for over 6 months?)

When people laugh at the riots and anarchy in Greece- its ironic that we will not be far from these levels of public discontent- when it begins to dawn on folk, just how severe conditions are going to get here.

The public sector got a sweetheart deal in the Croke Park agreement- when the government undertook to not make further reductions to their pay for the duration of the agreement in return for modernisation etc. They don't fully realise just how good a deal it is- but they will. Sure they've been nobbled 3 fold already- but their cuts have already happened. The next pain is the unemployed, the pensioners, the private sector- and the public at large via tax increases.

Is a 40% fall in property prices from current levels possible? Hell yes, it is. Are public riots possible- look no further than the 22 people arrested outside the Houses of the Oireachtas last Wednesday...... Is anarchy possible? Given the level of private indebtedness, alongside public indebtedness- and the sense of injustice at the rescuing of the banking sector and property developers- anarchy could well ensue.

People need a defined roadmap- stretching into the future- where they can see precisely what the government intend to do- and draw their own conclusions as to how these managerial decisions will affect their daily lives. Unfortunately the government don't have the guts to tell it as it is to the public. Bad news gets drip fed on Friday afternoons, and any little bit of good news- such as more call centre jobs- gets heralded as the success of government policy in promoting the knowledge economy......

I firmly believe that we could well be 15 or 20 years in sorting out the current mess- and despite the hardships that would ensue- it would in fact be a good idea to invite the IMF in, as the current shower don't have the balls to take the tough actions that need to be taken.

S.

Thats all very well written and i can see where your coming from, but things are good for a lot of us, i would love to know how many people are actually living comfortably, and what percentage are suffering. i think you will find its actually a small enough percentage. I'm not saying things are all rosy far from it, but is there any bit of optimism on here

TommyT

niallo27 wrote: »

I'm not saying things are all rosy far from it, but is there any bit of optimism on here

Optomism is banned in the property section on boards. Any more of it and you`ll be banned.

ricman

THERES no optimism left in the market ,but its not practical to say no one should buy a house ,some people get tired of renting .

Treehouse72

TommyT wrote: »

Optomism is banned in the property section on boards. Any more of it and you`ll be banned.

You seem to think that "optimism" and "pessimism" are states that exist independent of a wider reality. As if merely feeling one of those emotions might make them so.

This is unreconstructed bubblesthink I'm afraid to say, in which puerile concepts like talking down d'economy and accusations of begrudgery have caché. Sorry to say Tommy that in late Spring 2010 all this garbage is out the window and reality is all that matters. And the reality is that we are broke and getting broker by the day. Time to get with the programme and get one's head out of the sand.

niallo27

Treehouse72 wrote: »

You seem to think that "optimism" and "pessimism" are states that exist independent of a wider reality. As if merely feeling one of those emotions might make them so.

This is unreconstructed bubblesthink I'm afraid to say, in which puerile concepts like talking down d'economy and accusations of begrudgery have caché. Sorry to say Tommy that in late Spring 2010 all this garbage is out the window and reality is all that matters. And the reality is that we are broke and getting broker by the day. Time to get with the programme and get one's head out of the sand.

Well a lot of us are not broke a lot of us are doing better than ever before, im sorry to hear things are bad for you, but maybe if you have worked hard and furthered your education during the boom instead of trying to make a quick buck, hings would be a lot better for you, or wait a minute am in generalizing

billybigunz

niallo27 wrote: »

Well a lot of us are not broke a lot of us are doing better than ever before, im sorry to hear things are bad for you, but maybe if you have worked hard and furthered your education during the boom instead of trying to make a quick buck, hings would be a lot better for you, or wait a minute am in generalizing

Nah you are just talking ****. All the data is there from the dept of finance, paye receipts have fallen off a cliff. Fewer people are working, doing less hours and for less money. This will get a lot worse in the next few years.

niallo27

billybigunz wrote: »

Nah you are just talking ****. All the data is there from the dept of finance, paye receipts have fallen off a cliff. Fewer people are working, doing less hours and for less money. This will get a lot worse in the next few years.

Do you mind me asking are you paying a mortgage or renting and are you struggling

billybigunz

niallo27 wrote: »

Do you mind me asking are you paying a mortgage or renting and are you struggling

So you can argue your point on a case by case basis? Why not use the actual figures which tell all our stories.

niallo27

billybigunz wrote: »

So you can argue your point on a case by case basis? Why not use the actual figures which tell all our stories.

All our stories, that doesn't make sense, are you saying we should all think the same, that everyone is mad to buy because we are all f**ked, people will always do well in life, that's an historical fact

TommyT

niallo27 wrote: »

Well a lot of us are not broke a lot of us are doing better than ever before, im sorry to hear things are bad for you, but maybe if you have worked hard and furthered your education during the boom instead of trying to make a quick buck, hings would be a lot better for you, or wait a minute am in generalizing

Great there are 2 of us now. We`ll have to start our own forum. Optimism is banned on boards.ie You either agree with the naysayers or you are wrong.
Feck the begrudgers.

TommyT

Treehouse72 wrote: »

And the reality is that we are broke and getting broker by the day. Time to get with the programme and get one's head out of the sand.

Firstly I am not broke. In fact things are going quite well. Now I am not making as much as I was 3, 4 or 5 years ago, but my outgoings have decreased substantially. I have a few quid put by and I am still managing to put some away every week.
My head is not in the sand, it never was. I dont buy what I cannot afford and I do not like borrowing money. Maybe if you took your head from out of your arse and stopped complaining you may not have such a pessimistic outlook.

Treehouse72

niallo27 wrote: »

Well a lot of us are not broke a lot of us are doing better than ever before, im sorry to hear things are bad for you, but maybe if you have worked hard and furthered your education during the boom instead of trying to make a quick buck, hings would be a lot better for you, or wait a minute am in generalizing

Seriously Niall, if you're going to have a pop at someone about their level of education it's less effective when you came across as semi-literate while doing it. Either that or it's the sunstroke and Bulmers talking.

TommyT wrote: »

Firstly I am not broke. In fact things are going quite well. Now I am not making as much as I was 3, 4 or 5 years ago, but my outgoings have decreased substantially. I have a few quid put by and I am still managing to put some away every week.
My head is not in the sand, it never was. I dont buy what I cannot afford and I do not like borrowing money. Maybe if you took your head from out of your arse and stopped complaining you may not have such a pessimistic outlook.

Once upon a time there was a bank called Anglo...

Anyway, don't worry about it Tommy. Sounds like you're going gangbusters so Godspeed, goodnight and good luck.

niallo27

Treehouse72 wrote: »

Seriously Niall, if you're going to have a pop at someone about their level of education it's less effective when you came across as semi-literate while doing it. Either that or it's the sunstroke and Bulmers talking.

Obviously the irony was lost on you, i wasnt having a pop at you, read the last line, read the last line man, believe it or not the whole world is not against you

TommyT

Treehouse72 wrote: »

Once upon a time there was a bank called Anglo...

I walk past my local AIB every Saturday on the way to the Credit Union.

AARRRGH

I was looking at property on Daft today for < 50k, both in Ireland and abroad. If ever I needed reinforcement that our property market is still utterly rip off I got it today.

Here's an example:

Ireland

Germany

And I don't need to remind you that Germany is an extremely well run country with a super economy, and Ireland, well we're broke and a bit of a joke really.

billybigunz

That pretty much blows all argements out of the water.

Is an apartment in some desolate midlands town really worth 3-4 times the average wage? Was a single tulip bulb ever really worth a years salary all those years ago?

We are still dealing with the remnants of mass hysteria.

igorbiscan

I want in on the optimism!!,I've just purchased at a price im more happy to pay and can easily meet repayments even if one of us loses our job,I have personally stress tested both of us to apocolyptic proportions!!:D I never saw value in the peaktime prices when we could have bought,even last year prices were mad,but i been looking out for a while and feel ive got a very good deal.Prices are definitly more realistic than previous. I know i'll probably be in negative equity but not by a huge amount. I feel while people got totally carried away with the bubble people are also getting carried away with the bust.I've been saving for this set-up a good few years now and I'm ready to start living the good life and not trying to guess the bottom to eek out every last bit of value.Anyways its all relative to peoples circumstances.So heres to optimism!!:)

TommyT

igorbiscan wrote: »

I want in on the optimism!!,I've just purchased at a price im more happy to pay and can easily meet repayments even if one of us loses our job,I have personally stress tested both of us to apocolyptic proportions!!:D I never saw value in the peaktime prices when we could have bought,even last year prices were mad,but i been looking out for a while and feel ive got a very good deal.Prices are definitly more realistic than previous. I know i'll probably be in negative equity but not by a huge amount. I feel while people got totally carried away with the bubble people are also getting carried away with the bust.I've been saving for this set-up a good few years now and I'm ready to start living the good life and not trying to guess the bottom to eek out every last bit of value.Anyways its all relative to peoples circumstances.So heres to optimism!!:)

Treehouse72

igorbiscan wrote: »

I want in on the optimism!!,I've just purchased at a price im more happy to pay and can easily meet repayments even if one of us loses our job,I have personally stress tested both of us to apocolyptic proportions!!:D I never saw value in the peaktime prices when we could have bought,even last year prices were mad,but i been looking out for a while and feel ive got a very good deal.Prices are definitly more realistic than previous. I know i'll probably be in negative equity but not by a huge amount. I feel while people got totally carried away with the bubble people are also getting carried away with the bust.I've been saving for this set-up a good few years now and I'm ready to start living the good life and not trying to guess the bottom to eek out every last bit of value.Anyways its all relative to peoples circumstances.So heres to optimism!!:)

igorbiscan, congrats on your house move and I hope it works out well. You sound like you are aware of the potential choppy waters ahead and have planned accordingly. You should be grand whatever happens.

But I do want to pull you up on the highlighted piece of your post.

Please remember the fundamental characteristic of the bubble: irrational exuberance. The very name - "bubble" - hints at the transitory, delicate, artificially pumped-up nature of the thing. All rationality, logic and common sense disappeared. For example, the fact 25%+ of workers were reliant on construction was ignored. The fact every penny of surplus government revenue was coming from ever-rising house prices wasn't a cause of concern. The fact we were building 90,000 houses a year - about half as many as are built in the UK annually for a population 10x the size of ours - didn't make people think twice. People talking up the boom simply ignored - incorrectly, we now know - all of this.

So you are 100% correct when you say people got "carried away" on the way up. I don't think anyone seriously disputes this any more.

Now, can we say the same about those who today are saying the crash will continue and likely get worse? In all honesty, I don't think we can. People aren't illogically worrying that our national debt will be €100b by year's end. That is an entirely sensible and logical worry. Ditto unemployment....it is a perfectly reasonable concern that we can't possibly find jobs for 500,000 people. Similarly, to say that taxes and interest rates will rise isn't doomongering, it is a simple statement of fact.

So are these people getting "carried away" with the doom in the same way as those who got "carried away" with the boom? Surely not. The nature of the two things is fundamentally different: back then the upward cheerleading was largely irrational, now the downward cheerleading is wholly rational.