e/w against the favourite log

mike65 · 19-05-2010 6:35pm

Barron Watless wins!

POINTBREAK · 19-05-2010 6:41pm

mike65 wrote: »

Barron Watless wins!

On pure value it really was a bet......1.38 a place and the bookies were giving 4/5. That's a big difference.

mike65 · 19-05-2010 6:46pm

So then two wins and two places from Verance today. Not too shabby.

ps PB your site isn't loading for me.

POINTBREAK · 19-05-2010 6:51pm

mike65 wrote: »

So then two wins and two places from Verance today. Not too shabby.

ps PB your site isn't loading for me.

Thanks Mike its down at the minute, probably because I gave 2 from 2 today........ and the servers have been overwhelmed.......... lol

Its fixed............

Verance · 19-05-2010 7:27pm

mike65 wrote: »

So then two wins and two places from Verance today. Not too shabby.

ps PB your site isn't loading for me.

Haha I've been travelling all day so didn't get any of the results so I log on here asap and I see your post

:D:D

Now all I need to hear is Tony McCoy is on for a treble at Worcester, fingers crossed! :pac:

mike65 · 19-05-2010 7:33pm

Tomorrow possibles as judged by early betfair prices

4:15 Wetherby Handicap Hurdle(5) 3m1f 1. - Finbin Flying/Doctor/Rusty Red
5:05 Haydock Park Maiden Stakes(5) 1m3f 200yds - Chickini
6:00 Salisbury Maiden Stakes(4) 5f - Remotelinx
8:15 Salisbury Maiden Fillies' Stakes(5) 6f - Liel and/or Rare Tern
8:00 Sandown Park Maiden Stakes(5) 1m2f 7yds - Mavalenta
6:10 Tipperary MAIDEN 7f 100yds Mutamaleq/Jembatt
8:50 Tipperary Maiden 1m1f Seven Summits/Prayer Boat

Thoughts?

POINTBREAK · 19-05-2010 7:50pm

mike65 wrote: »

Tomorrow possibles as judged by early betfair prices

4:15 Wetherby Handicap Hurdle(5) 3m1f 1. - Finbin Flying/Doctor/Rusty Red
5:05 Haydock Park Maiden Stakes(5) 1m3f 200yds - Chickini
6:00 Salisbury Maiden Stakes(4) 5f - Remotelinx
8:15 Salisbury Maiden Fillies' Stakes(5) 6f - Liel and/or Rare Tern
8:00 Sandown Park Maiden Stakes(5) 1m2f 7yds - Mavalenta
6:10 Tipperary MAIDEN 7f 100yds Mutamaleq/Jembatt
8:50 Tipperary Maiden 1m1f Seven Summits/Prayer Boat

Thoughts?

In my limited experience I find the Irish place markets don't have enough liquidity to be able to take them as a solid marker.

Wodawick · 20-05-2010 10:35am

The two early picks for today are:

2.20 Haydock Fav 1/1, 2nd Fav 3/1, Tilliemint 6/1, 10/1 Bar. (11 Runners)

6.00 Salisbury Fav 1/1, 2nd Fav 5/2, Remotelinx 9/2, 12/1 Bar. (11 Runners)

Wodawick · 20-05-2010 10:37am

POINTBREAK wrote: »

In my limited experience I find the Irish place markets don't have enough liquidity to be able to take them as a solid marker.

I'd agree with that. In addition, a lot of the fields are 16+ runner handicaps, so are ruled out straight away.

thedini · 20-05-2010 10:46am

Wodawick wrote: »

The two early picks for today are:

2.20 Haydock Fav 1/1, 2nd Fav 3/1, Tilliemint 6/1, 10/1 Bar. (11 Runners)

6.00 Salisbury Fav 1/1, 2nd Fav 5/2, Remotelinx 9/2, 12/1 Bar. (11 Runners)

I think they are clear examples of where there is no value. Tilliemint 2.2 place odds with the bookies same with betfair.

Remotelinx 1.90 with bookies, 1.80 with betfair.

And also especially Tilliemint 6/1 win odds with bookies but is 10.5 with betfair that difference is huge and so is a definite no bet.

Verance · 20-05-2010 11:06am

Tilliemint 15/2 with SportingBet and worth keeping an eye on.

5.05 looks a great race, Blackmore 10/1 with some bookies and trading at 1.96 - 2.02 with BF, not a lot of liquidity yet though...

POINTBREAK · 20-05-2010 11:13am

Wodawick wrote: »

I'd agree with that. In addition, a lot of the fields are 16+ runner handicaps, so are ruled out straight away.

I wouldn't neccessarily rule out 16 runner handicaps.

Verance · 20-05-2010 11:35am

Queen of Spain 6.40 Tipperary looks a definite bet at 3/1 today.

Lots of other possibles which will have to be looked at throughout the day...

Wodawick · 20-05-2010 11:53am

POINTBREAK wrote: »

I wouldn't neccessarily rule out 16 runner handicaps.

I wouldn't even consider them myself, but each to their own.

The pricing of Irish racing markets appears to be quite different to the UK. In the Irish markets, too many races are priced with a clear fav, a clear 2nd fav and then one horse on each point ad infinitum, e.g. 2/1, 4/1, 6/1, 7/1,8/1 etc.

POINTBREAK · 20-05-2010 12:26pm

I've got 6 races to go through today. I'm leaving out the Irish ones until I get a feel for it.
PositiVe EV

Verance · 20-05-2010 2:08pm

2.20 Haydock - Tilliemint looks to be a bet at 8/1, that's 2.6 a place when it's 2.14 - 2.20 on BF.
Premier Clarets could be at 3/1 as well, 1.6 a place when it's 1.42 - 1.44 on BF...

INTERESTING MARKET............................

Premier Clarets wins

POINTBREAK · 20-05-2010 2:12pm

Verance wrote: »

2.20 Haydock - Tilliemint looks to be a bet at 8/1, that's 2.6 a place when it's 2.14 - 2.20 on BF.
Premier Clarets could be at 3/1 as well, 1.6 a place when it's 1.42 - 1.44 on BF...

Premier has a bit of value half stakes for me

Premier wins

Verance · 20-05-2010 2:17pm

Primo de Vida is great value in 2.40 Southwell if you can get the 11/4 with Totesport... into 9/4 now
Still a bet (Getting 1.45ish, BF 1.28), as is Conceptual Art (getting 1.8, BF 1.6).

thedini · 20-05-2010 2:38pm

Lads, what am I missing, I thought there has to be a clear favorite. At the off Premier wasn't value 1.4 and 1.42 with betfair.

Again the 2.40 no clear fav.

Verance · 20-05-2010 2:41pm

thedini wrote: »

Lads, what am I missing, I thought there has to be a clear favorite. At the off Premier wasn't value 1.4 and 1.42 with betfair.

Again the 2.40 no clear fav.

You missed the 3/1!!

There doesn't have to be a short favourite. The 2.40 went - 7/4, 9/4, 4/1, 10/1, 20/1, 20/1, 150/1, 250/1... So, the top 3 looked like having the places to themselves.

2nd and 3rd - small loss

thedini · 20-05-2010 2:43pm

Verance wrote: »

You missed the 3/1!!

lol, didn't actually because I fancied him to win. But it wasn't a system bet.

2:20 MAIDEN AUCTION STAKES 6f - Premier Clarets @ 5/2 (GP) (Win)

Verance · 20-05-2010 2:53pm

That's 5/2! At 3/1, it was 1.6 to place and 1.4 on Betfair..

thedini · 20-05-2010 2:59pm

Verance wrote: »

That's 5/2! At 3/1, it was 1.6 to place and 1.4 on Betfair..

that's true but the market at the off had it as no bet.

Verance · 20-05-2010 3:02pm

Yeah very interesting, all the bets seem to shorten. Looks like you have to get on just after it opens up on coursor before.

mike65 · 20-05-2010 3:03pm

Would be handy if Mug could visit us and pass judgment on this thread so far

Verance · 20-05-2010 3:04pm

3.15 Southwell, Magic Haze is a standout bet at 8/1 with Stan James, 2.6 V 2ish on Betfair and the win is good value too... will shorten.

POINTBREAK · 20-05-2010 3:07pm

Verance wrote: »

Yeah very interesting, all the bets seem to shorten. Looks like you have to get on just after it opens up on coursor before.

I got the 3/1 but for future reference you probably need to make your mind up a lot earlier since all the shrewdies will be looking at these type of races......

thedini · 20-05-2010 3:08pm

Tbh, Mug's system is as old as betfair itself, I used to do it a few years ago myself. Verance in your 2.40 example there were 3 short horses and then bar say, so you picked 2 horses but you are losing value on the win portion. This is a no bet race for me anyway. If I have time later on, I will post up the way I used to do it, it's the same as mug's but laying off the win part of the selection.

POINTBREAK · 20-05-2010 3:11pm

Verance wrote: »

3.15 Southwell, Magic Haze is a standout bet at 8/1 with Stan James, 2.6 V 2ish on Betfair and the win is good value too... will shorten.

good point. 8/5 and trades around 9/10. It is value, but I prefer them to be a bit more odds on to be placed.

Verance · 20-05-2010 3:18pm

Magic Haze another to shorten up on course. Looks like it'd be easy to trade these (so far)...

And just stays for the place...

e/w against the favourite log

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