e/w against the favourite log

Verance · 20-05-2010 3:23pm

thedini wrote: »

Verance in your 2.40 example there were 3 short horses and then bar say, so you picked 2 horses but you are losing value on the win portion. This is a no bet race for me anyway.

Just a small bit though, got Primo de Vida @ 3s when it was about the same on BF (around 4.1 I think) and got Conceptual Art @ 4s, think it was 5.5-5.6 on BF... But the places definitely made up for it (If i've got my maths right).

Verance · 20-05-2010 4:58pm

5.05 Haydock - I'm just gonna go with Blackmore @11s. Most of the others look like they might be SLIGHT value too...

into 9s........

EDIT AGAIN into 8s....

Verance · 20-05-2010 5:42pm

I've written a formula in Excel that works out what sort of edge we have backing these horses and said I'd upload it here in case someone might find it useful. Just change the values in cells B2, B3, C2, C3 to the horse you're looking at and it'll tell you what sort of edge you're getting. It's calculated at 100ew.

In the example, the horse is 4/1 with the bookies (so 1.8 a place) and just over 4s with BF and 1.4 a place. If you put 100ew on the horse 100 times, you payout 20000 and get 22661 back, a return on investment of 13%.

I'm pretty sure this is correct but if anyone sees a problem let me know.

Juwwi · 20-05-2010 5:59pm

610 at tipp looks the perfect race for a ew
william hill at the moment 8/13 7/2 7/1 16/1 16/1 20/1 20/1 33/1 and so on.11 runners

3rd fav wins sp 5/1 2nd fav 2nd sp 4/1 fav 3rd

Juwwi · 20-05-2010 6:23pm

mike65 wrote: »

Would be handy if Mug could visit us and pass judgment on this thread so far

lve been following this thread without contributing but ld say that mug would say there is too many races being selected.
from what l see people are trying to talk themselves into value .
that race last night the 630 sedgefied was a max bet race
that lm sure mug would of filling his boots with.http://horses.sportinglife.com/Full_Results/0,12493,371160,00.html

only my tupence worth l havent started this system yet but will very soon
from what lve seen with u guys so far there is a good chance of making gambling pay with discipling by following this system.

Verance · 20-05-2010 6:30pm

Brookley lady in the 6.40 Tipp a definite bet @10s...

drifting wildly on the exchanges...

Queen of Spain a good bet when it drifted... drifted to 6s, back into 11/2

QOS 2nd, Brookley Lady unplaced....

Juwwi · 20-05-2010 6:33pm

Verance wrote: »

Brookley lady in the 6.40 Tipp a definite bet @10s...

just a word of warning lve seen that horse run before and it looks a little ungenuine.

l wouldnd back it myself.

POINTBREAK · 20-05-2010 6:57pm

robbie1977 wrote: »

lve been following this thread without contributing but ld say that mug would say there is too many races being selected.
from what l see people are trying to talk themselves into value .
that race last night the 630 sedgefied was a max bet race
that lm sure mug would of filling his boots with.http://horses.sportinglife.com/Full_Results/0,12493,371160,00.html

only my tupence worth l havent started this system yet but will very soon
from what lve seen with u guys so far there is a good chance of making gambling pay with discipling by following this system.

I would say you're probably right. The last 5 that I found all won and even that has a bit of a freak result about it that I have to put down to luck, but I've only had 7 bets in total since Saturday. TipsterForm.com

mike65 · 21-05-2010 11:30am

Anything catch the eye?

2:30 HANDICAP (0-70) ( 7f 3yds (YARM) is the only one at a glance for me

Wodawick · 21-05-2010 11:43am

mike65 wrote: »

Anything catch the eye?

2:30 HANDICAP (0-70) ( 7f 3yds (YARM) is the only one at a glance for me

Yeah, looks a quiet day alright. Sairaam at 6/1 will do for me for today.

thesandeman · 21-05-2010 2:29pm

What about 6.15 Wexford? 6/5 fav 7/2 4/1 and 8/1 bar?

mike65 · 22-05-2010 10:05am

mike65 wrote: »

Anything catch the eye?

2:30 HANDICAP (0-70) ( 7f 3yds (YARM) is the only one at a glance for me

Sairaam @ 7/1 (GP) placed.

Wodawick · 22-05-2010 10:56am

Quantity doesn't make quality; six race meetings today and not one bet!

Roll on tomorrow!

mike65 · 22-05-2010 11:07am

What about

4:20 GROUP 3 FILLIES STAKES 1m (CURR) Choose Me unplaced
7:30 MAIDEN STAKES (3Y) 1m (LING) - Breakheart win
8:00 MAIDEN STAKES (3Y) 1m (LING) - Break Serve placed
8:45 HANDICAP 7f (NEWB) Tarita unplaced

Juwwi · 22-05-2010 4:27pm

mike65 wrote: »

What about

4:20 GROUP 3 FILLIES STAKES 1m (CURR) Choose Me
7:30 MAIDEN STAKES (3Y) 1m (LING) - Breakheart
8:00 MAIDEN STAKES (3Y) 1m (LING) - Break Serve
8:45 HANDICAP 7f (NEWB) Tarita

mike are u sure tarita is a selection ?

its 7/2 fav 9/2 tarita 8/1 8/1 12./1 so on on pp's at the moment

just looking on the exchanges breakheart is a big difter out to 11.5 but only 6/1 with the bookies however in the same race chedder george is strong on the exchanges at 5.9 and is 5/1 with the bookies.
he has never ran before tho and to me thats a negative.

l have done chedder george 730 ling 5/1 ladbrokes .
he is as low as 7/2 in others

taught l better put my money where my mouth is and stop criticizing other peoples bets

Juwwi · 22-05-2010 7:27pm

betting has now swung the other way .

breakheart is 1.47 to place 9/2 with bookies from 5/1.

he is now the bet. u have to wait till close before the off realy

chedder george drifting out to 13/2

l have now backed breakheart aswell at 9/2

mike65 · 23-05-2010 10:45am

2:15 NOVICE HURDLE 2m 4f 110yds (PERT) Proficiency and Elcanos might be worth a closer look.
2:50 HANDICAP HURDL 2m 1f 172yds (DOWN) Akbarito
5:35 LADIES NAT HUN 2m 1f 172yds (DOWN) Miracle House (only if really desperate!)

Verance · 23-05-2010 11:44am

mike65 wrote: »

2:15 NOVICE HURDLE 2m 4f 110yds (PERT) Proficiency and Elcanos might be worth a closer look.
2:50 HANDICAP HURDL 2m 1f 172yds (DOWN) Akbarito
5:35 LADIES NAT HUN 2m 1f 172yds (DOWN) Miracle House (only if really desperate!)

2.15 Perth Proficiency looks like good value, getting 1.9/2 a place when it's 1.6 ish on betfair. Fav will be very hard to beat imo, looks way better than these.
2.50 Downpatrick looks too competitive for my liking.. 5.35 is worth keeping an eye on once the market settles down.

mike65 · 23-05-2010 11:07pm

Proficiency 3rd.

mike65 · 24-05-2010 11:35am

A few maybes.

7:25 MAIDEN STAKES 7f (THIR) Ingleby King unplaced
7:10 HANDICAP (0-80) 6f (WIND) Greensward place
8:10 MAIDEN AUCTION 1m 2f 7yds (WIND) Roanstar unplaced

mike65 · 26-05-2010 10:34am

3:50 HANDICAP 1m 7f (AYR) Alloro 6/1
4:55 HANDICAP 6f (AYR) Vilnius 6/1
6:30 MAIDEN FILLIES STAKES 7f 100y (BEVE) Medici Palace 9/2 & Shaluca 7/1

Verance · 26-05-2010 11:31am

2.20 Sedgefield - Favours Brave 9/4 (Good value, great chance imo)
3.25 Sedgefield - Arisea 5/1 (Great value!)
3.50 Ayr - Alloro 13/2 (Good value)

POINTBREAK · 26-05-2010 3:12pm

First of series of 50 value bets posted

Yessssssssssssssssss!

ghosttown · 26-05-2010 3:31pm

Well done on that, great start.

Verance · 26-05-2010 3:46pm

POINTBREAK wrote: »

First of series of 50 value bets posted

Yessssssssssssssssss!

****, what time did you get the 11/2? I thought I did well getting 5s.

POINTBREAK · 26-05-2010 4:05pm

Verance wrote: »

****, what time did you get the 11/2? I thought I did well getting 5s.

About 5 past with Ladbrokes. Oddschecker have it timed at 3.04pm

it was trading at 1.63 and there was more money in the queue to back it than to lay it, that was the clincher.

Verance · 26-05-2010 4:16pm

Phew 11/2 was nice! Won by 11 lengths!

POINTBREAK · 26-05-2010 4:33pm

Verance wrote: »

Phew 11/2 was nice! Won by 11 lengths!

I saw it on ATR, couldn't believe how well it was going. I was 99% at 5/1 and would have taken that. Funny the price collapsed once I posted it it...... I'm pretty sure I don't have that many followers.......... lol

mike65 · 26-05-2010 4:37pm

Whats next?

POINTBREAK · 26-05-2010 4:49pm

mike65 wrote: »

Whats next?

I had a look at Vilnius but its evens to be placed on BF, so no value for me.

e/w against the favourite log

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