Who will win the World Cup & Why ?

Liam O

Spain wont get past the quarter finals, they are the biggest bottlers going at the WC and without Xavi (as far as i know) they will really struggle.

JPA

I went for Brazil, they are born winners.
I'd go for Spain as my 2nd favourite but I don't know if they maintain their high standards for another tournament. In saying that, if they did I wouldn't be enitrely surprised.

KerranJast

I think other teams will have seen how Inter dealt with Barca and will attempt something similar against Spain.

Warper

speedboatchase wrote: »

And Holland only conceded 2 in 8 and Slovenia conceded 4 in 10 - I'm not sure how much we can read into every team's goals conceded record. Interestingly enough, due to what I assumed was a huge imbalance in the Dutch quality of attackers (Robben, VP, Sneijder) over defence (Van Bronkhorst, Ooijer), I said I don't trust their defence - maybe I'm very wrong. I think Spain have the best defence though over Brazil

Brazil faced much tougher opposition than any European team did in qualifying like Argentina, Chile, Paraguay, Uruguay etc. not to mention having to play at altitude. Plus the fact Brazil rested some players in their last couple of games after they had guaranteed qualification. Their backline will be Julio Cesar, Lucio, Juan, Maicon and probably Bastos of Lyon.

Daemos

rarnes1 wrote: »

I hope Argentina win it with Messi having an unbelievable tournament, scoring headers from the halfway line and all.

Same here, because I put a bet on an Argentina Win/Messi Top Scorer double, was 33/1 at the time, 25/1 now. Any bet thats odds drop after you place it is a good start in my opinion.

Ush1

rarnes1 wrote: »

I hope Argentina win it with Messi having an unbelievable tournament, scoring headers from the halfway line and all.

This would be good.

Also that Maradona turned out to be a tactical genius!:pac:

Cypher_sounds

Spain will because they are the most consistent team in recent times, they have a very good squad.

Luap

Spain will not win, every single person I've asked have said Spain, it's just not going to happen.

I think Brazil will do it, seen them play against Ireland in Croke Park, we mightn't be world-class but we are decent from what I've seen against Italy twice and france twice.:mad:. Brazil were on a different level thats why I have chosen them.

Luap

rarnes1 wrote: »

I hope Argentina win it with Messi having an unbelievable tournament, scoring headers from the halfway line and all.

South Korea will have a shock win against them.:cool:

rossie1977

alibabba wrote: »

Even the minnowish Irish made them look very uncomfortable in the friendly not so long ago (i know it was only a friendly) but a top class attaching team will put Brazil under too much pressure.
I dont expect Brazil to make semi's

argentina have probably the best attack of any team in this years WC, Agüero, Messi, Tevez and Diego Milito all played against brazil in september at home in the qualifers and brazil easily disposed of em

brazil have a superb defence, this is a team after all who can afford to leave Dani Alves on the bench

LeeroyJones

Going on previous tournaments, there does seem to be a trend.

It's rare for any team to win the World Cup on pure football quality alone, because it's rare for any country to be able to produce this level of football through every outfield player on their squad. The only country I have seen win a World Cup on this basis is Brazil. In all other World Cups, there seems to be a formula, taking France's triumph and Italy's in 1998 and 2006 respectively.

Top Goalkeeper;
Fabian Barthez had the 4 weeks of his life in the summer of 1998 and France would have had an early exit had he not been in form.
Gianluigi Buffon is one of the best keepers in the world, possibly of all time and his quality went a long way to Italy's triumph.

Quality Defence;
France's back 4-Lizarazu Thuram Blanc Desailly (and Leboeuf for the final)
Italy's back 4-Zambrotta, Gosso, Cannavaro Materazzi
These defences were experienced units

Furthermore, both Italy and France had energetic and hardworking midfields, with the 'water-carriers' in Deschamps and Gattuso doing some crucial unseen work.

Interestingly, neither France or Italy had out and out goalscorers, which shows that if a team wants to win the World Cup they need to put their defence as a priority.

People point at Englands top players to guide them to a world cup, but they have a severe lack of sufficient quality in Goals and while Gerrard and Lampard are fantastic midfielders, they lack the Gattuso or Deschamps effect. Hargreaves failure to return to full fitness I think is a HUGE blow to the English challenge

parker kent

alibabba wrote: »

Even the minnowish Irish made them look very uncomfortable in the friendly not so long ago (i know it was only a friendly) but a top class attaching team will put Brazil under too much pressure.
I dont expect Brazil to make semi's

Brazil were not really under pressure in that game and as you say, it was a friendly. They turned it on in the 2nd half and showed their true colours. They are probably the best unit in the tournament, Dunga has them organised very well.

On a different note, injuries could ruin Spain's chances. Xavi, Iniesta, Torres and Fabregas all injured going into the tournament. That is three first choice picks and their number one impact sub. There's a good chance Spain and Brazil could meet int he second round. If that game happens, I would not be surprised to see Brazil soak up pressure and catch them on the counter attack. The Spanish defence is no great shakes.

Dont be at yourself

Germany. Because they are Germany. And because I just stuck €100 on them.

Seriously though, it's a tough one. Here's how I see it:

Spain: Torres, Xavi and Iniesta all carrying knocks. The Barca players fought a long season. With the Euros and Confederations Cup, their squad haven't had a break in three years. Huge expectation on them. I don't think they'll have it in their legs or in their minds.

Brazil: Solid, unspectacular. Kaka's off the back of a terrible season, and there are few others on top form. Definitely in with a shout though.

England: Injury and form worries all over the pitch. Terry and Ferdinand have had a poor season. Central midfield is up in the air. Gerrard's had a stinker. Heskey. Lack of a top class keeper. Huge expectation and media circus following them.

Italy: Old squad, old tactics. Been there, done that, may not have the motivation to do it again.

Netherlands: Lacking the mentality and the solidity at the back, but undoubtedly have the players to go far, if they keep it together.

Argentina: One of the best squads - even without Zanetti and Cambiasso, but Maradona could be a huge handicap for them. They don't seem to know their best 11, and the World Cup is not the place to be sorting it out.

France: Poor in qualifying, unloved by their fans, squad infighting and a clueless manager who doesn't have the respect of their players and will be waving goodbye after the world cup. They won't have Zidane to carry them through this time.

Germany: A relatively settled and solid squad. Question marks over the form of their front men, but they have a great scoring record in these tournaments. They have the players and the mentality to grind out results, but are lacking that bit of flair.

Ush1

parker kent wrote: »

On a different note, injuries could ruin Spain's chances. Xavi, Iniesta, Torres and Fabregas all injured going into the tournament. That is three first choice picks and their number one impact sub. There's a good chance Spain and Brazil could meet int he second round. If that game happens, I would not be surprised to see Brazil soak up pressure and catch them on the counter attack. The Spanish defence is no great shakes.

Marcos Senna also injured.

Mr. Presentable

LeeroyJones wrote: »

Going on previous tournaments, there does seem to be a trend.

The lesson seems to be, if you don't allow the opposition to score you've got a great chance to progress. In the modern era the attacking sides have suffered at the feet of defensive ones. Build from the back.

I still say Germany, but it won't be pretty.

Royale with Cheese

It will be one of Brazil, England or Spain. Because I said so.

Pepe LeFrits

NekkidBibleMan wrote: »

Spain: Torres, Xavi and Iniesta all carrying knocks. The Barca players fought a long season. With the Euros and Confederations Cup, their squad haven't had a break in three years. Huge expectation on them. I don't think they'll have it in their legs or in their minds.

Even without those three, they'd have every chance of winning it.

Casillas
Ramos Puyol Pique Capdevila
Senna Alonso
Silva Fabregas Cazorla
Villa

I don't know if that'd be the team in that scenario, but it'd be immense if it was... and it'd still have players like Mata, Pedro and Guiza in reserve.

Ush1

Pepe LeFrits wrote: »

Even without those three, they'd have every chance of winning it.

Casillas
Ramos Puyol Pique Capdevila
Senna Alonso
Silva Fabregas Cazorla
Villa

I don't know if that'd be the team in that scenario, but it'd be immense if it was... and it'd still have players like Mata, Pedro and Guiza in reserve.

Senna is also injured.

Dont be at yourself

Even without those three, they'd have every chance of winning it.

Casillas
Ramos Puyol Pique Capdevila
Senna Alonso
Silva Fabregas Cazorla
Villa

I don't know if that'd be the team in that scenario, but it'd be immense if it was... and it'd still have players like Mata, Pedro and Guiza in reserve.

Of course they'd still have a great squad and a good chance of winning it. However, Spain are hugely reliant on Xavi (and Iniesta and Torres to a lesser extent), and if he was injured or unfit, it would be a considerable blow to their chances. With so many fitness concerns to big players, I wouldn't back them.

They don't want to have to give Pedro or Javi Martinez their first caps in South Africa, but it's not an altogether unlikely scenario.

Mr.Nice Guy

Wow far too much is being made of Spain's injury concerns. According to Fabregas himself he's set to make the start of the tournament and Torres and Iniesta are set to be ready also. I think the only cause for concern is Xavi but it's hard to imagine he'll miss the entire tournament.

Their group contains Switzerland, Honduras and Chile. They can afford to put out their second string team and still win it. By the knock-out stages they ought to be ready for everyone.

flahavaj

I reckon Brazil have a huge shout. Seem like a really solid team, with a good record in recent years, a manager who has made the team more important than the individual, more solid at the back than youd normally expect and till plenty of flair up front.

dsmythy

Chile and Paraguay only finished one point behind Brazil in the South American qualifying section. You never know in deepest South Africa what may happen. I'd lean more towards Paraguay because of their better defence. There should be unbelievable team spirit after one of their main players was shot dead recently.

Als76

Its Spain for me Torres and Villa up front the best midfield in the world. Its hard to see past them and they have a good temperment so no sillly bookings or sending offs will help.

Argentina have a chance if the click early on but Maradona is a liability the team is next to spain in strenght.

parker kent

dsmythy wrote: »

Chile and Paraguay only finished one point behind Brazil in the South American qualifying section. You never know in deepest South Africa what may happen. I'd lean more towards Paraguay because of their better defence. There should be unbelievable team spirit after one of their main players was shot dead recently.

Cabanas didn't die. It was but a fleshwound

http://www.fifa.com/worldcup/news/newsid=1176812/index.html#cabanas+recovery+could+take+years

Reganio 2

Serbia, good team some good player and good collectivly and as a unit. Will put a bet on them as an outside bet I reckon. I was all for the Germans but with Ballack out I think he is a very important player to them and not to mention their captain so I reckon they will struggle.

Panthro

if either of these boys are on their countrys national team, i wouldnt be banking on them.
http://soccerlens.com/worst-goalkeeper-ever-v-worst-striker-ever/35130/

dsmythy

parker kent wrote: »

Cabanas didn't die. It was but a fleshwound

http://www.fifa.com/worldcup/news/newsid=1176812/index.html#cabanas+recovery+could+take+years

Oh right i thought the guy was dead! They'll be playing for Cabanas nonetheless!

Boskowski

Germany. Because as usual we're way underrated. We have no flair. We have no stars. Too workmanlike. Same old record being played every 4 years.

Truth be told...
We actually have a few worries.

After Enkes suicide and Adlers injury it's between an inexperienced Neuer who despite all his talent had a few major blunders this season, a hot headed and not as good as he thinks Wiese and Butt in goal. That's a bit of a worry.

We're going to miss Ballack. He's after gettin quieter last two years. He's leaving the flashy stuff to the younger guys these days and does the reliable hovering up stuff instead. But still - I'm not sure we can replace his presence and his experience and leadership skills.

Up front we haven't been in form all year. Gomez unable still to perform as the big fee Munich frontman. Klose only second choice there too. Mûller - I don't know - bambi-on-Ice wasn't altogether unfitting tbh.

But despite all that we have a better squad than in 06 and a way better squad than in 02. And we made the semis and the final on those occasions.
He will throw in some young guns and they will come good for him. Names like Boateng, Özil, Marin spring to mind.

We will be thereabouts because that's what we do.

Liam O

Spain have an extremely dodgy defense imo. Pique and Puyol showed that a top class strike force can rattle them and don't get me started on Sergio Ramos, decent in an attacking sense but very bad defensively...

parker kent

Liam O wrote: »

Spain have an extremely dodgy defense imo. Pique and Puyol showed that a top class strike force can rattle them and don't get me started on Sergio Ramos, decent in an attacking sense but very bad defensively...

The Spanish will be playing Brazil, Portugal or Ivory Coast in the second round, that is going be a huge test of their defence. If the midfield is not firing on all cylinders, they could get a severe test. I think Brazil would beat them and the other 2 have the potential.

Warper

One team that has a great record in recent World Cup's is France. Despite their crap coach they can go far if they get on a run. They have good players in Gourcuff, Anelka, Evra, Malouda, Diarra and they would be my dark horse for the tournament at around 20-1. One drawback is Domenech will probably play Henry who is clearly finished at the top level. They have a relatively easy group which may enable them to get into a groove. If they top the Group they have a handy round 2 tie and then maybe England in the 1/4 which imo isnt too bad either.

KerranJast

Warper wrote: »

One team that has a great record in recent World Cup's is France. Despite their crap coach they can go far if they get on a run. They have good players in Gourcuff, Anelka, Evra, Malouda, Diarra and they would be my dark horse for the tournament at around 20-1. One drawback is Domenech will probably play Henry who is clearly finished at the top level. They have a relatively easy group which may enable them to get into a groove. If they top the Group they have a handy round 2 tie and then maybe England in the 1/4 which imo isnt too bad either.

Two big points against
- Presence of Domenech
- Absence of Zidane

They had a dismal Euro 2008 finishing last in their group, and didn't impress at all in qualification and the playoff against us.

Group A isn't as easy as it looks. I fancy Mexico and Uruguay to give France a hard time.

Frisbee

Group A looks very hard on paper to me.

South Africa are the 'dud' team and in any other tournament they wouldn't even be there, and if they were I'd expect them to finish bottom. But in this case they are the host nation and I can see them challenging for progression alright.

France are the 'big' team but have been very poor however if they click they certainly still have enough to get by any of the other three teams.

Mexico and Uruguay are both underrated imo. They possess decent sides with a good mix of youth and experience and I fully expect them both to be challenging for the group.

Imo it's the only group where all four nations are genuine contenders to progerss.

alibabba

Frisbee wrote: »

Group A looks very hard on paper to me.

South Africa are the 'dud' team and in any other tournament they wouldn't even be there, and if they were I'd expect them to finish bottom. But in this case they are the host nation and I can see them challenging for progression alright.

France are the 'big' team but have been very poor however if they click they certainly still have enough to get by any of the other three teams.

Mexico and Uruguay are both underrated imo. They possess decent sides with a good mix of youth and experience and I fully expect them both to be challenging for the group.

Imo it's the only group where all four nations are genuine contenders to progerss.

I used one of those fancy excel spreadsheets (www.excely.com) that you input your estimated scores for each match.
My estimations threw Mexico v Brazil & Argentina v Spain/Ivory Coast
into the semi finals !

KerranJast

alibabba wrote: »

I used one of those fancy excel spreadsheets (www.excely.com) that you input your estimated scores for each match.
My estimations threw Mexico v Brazil & Argentina v Spain/Ivory Coast
into the semi finals !

I ended up with:
Netherlands/Brazil vs Uruguay/England
&
Argentina/Serbia vs Japan/Spain

The Volt

Frisbee wrote: »

Group A looks very hard on paper to me.

South Africa are the 'dud' team and in any other tournament they wouldn't even be there, and if they were I'd expect them to finish bottom. But in this case they are the host nation and I can see them challenging for progression alright.

France are the 'big' team but have been very poor however if they click they certainly still have enough to get by any of the other three teams.

Mexico and Uruguay are both underrated imo. They possess decent sides with a good mix of youth and experience and I fully expect them both to be challenging for the group.

Imo it's the only group where all four nations are genuine contenders to progerss.

I'd agree. Mexico and Uruguay could very well cance each other out with a draw, South Africa could well beat one one of them and all three have the potential to take points off France. Very interesting group to say the least. I fancy Uruguay to go through along with France though.

LeBash

Im going to go with Holland.

I think thier main striker has alot of football left in his legs. This is all based on they dont open thier mouth and start killing each other again.

I think Spain will do the usual and bottle it by the quarter finals.

Germany will miss Ballack, but you can never count them out.

With Maradonna managing the Argies, they will stumble out of thier group and lose in thier first real game against a well organised team.

Brazil are good, but when i heard Kleberson made the team I laughed and now cant take them seriously.

Dont be at yourself

I had England/Netherlands vs Germany/Brazil for the semi-finals.

Man, doing that spreadsheet has got me so excited. How many more weeks to go?

alibabba

NekkidBibleMan wrote: »

I had England/Netherlands vs Germany/Brazil for the semi-finals.

Man, doing that spreadsheet has got me so excited. How many more weeks to go?

Here ya go ...

plasmaguy

I have a sneaking feeling it will be Brazil v England in the final.

A good manager who keeps the squad united and happy is crucial to a world cup bid and Capello I believe is that manager.

Many great and talented teams have failed to reach the latter stages of the world cup or the final because of squad disunity. Holland should have done much better in the 90's and 00's, but had problems with black players and white players not mixing too well.

Spain always seem to implode at the world cup and can never seem to gel, although they are getting better at that.

France are a basket case from what I see and won't go far.

Italy have a good manager and the Italians have a habit in the world cup of grinding out results when it matters.

KerranJast

plasmaguy wrote: »

I have a sneaking feeling it will be Brazil v England in the final.

That can't happen unless one of them finishes second in their group. They'll meet in the semis otherwise.

plasmaguy

KerranJast wrote: »

That can't happen unless one of them finishes second in their group. They'll meet in the semis otherwise.

ah I see, I was just going on what some previous posters wrote.

I'm too lazy to look up the spreadsheet.

alibabba

plasmaguy wrote: »

ah I see, I was just going on what some previous posters wrote.

I'm too lazy to look up the spreadsheet.

The spreadsheet is handy. Useful to understand where teams might drop into 1/4 finals and against who

parker kent

KerranJast wrote: »

That can't happen unless one of them finishes second in their group. They'll meet in the semis otherwise.

In fairness, that is not the most outlandish possibility. Either England or Brazil could draw one game in their group and end up second on goal difference. World Cups rarely work out exactly to form.

In my spreadsheet I had Serbia knocking out England in the 2nd round on penalties!

Hoki

Im getting the following

Semi Finals: England vs Brazil
Argentina vs Spain

Final : Brazil vs Spain

Winners : Undecided!

Anyone who thinks Spain will bottle it at the World Cup might want to reconsider that opinion. Previous experiences at World Cups count for very little . This Spanish side are relatively young and have been part of an exceptional Spanish side for the best part of 4 years .

They have lost 1 game since November 2006 & that was the semi final of a confederations cup where they looked tired coming off the back of a hectic 12 months.

You dont become a bad team overnight & although they have some injury worries they have an extremely strong squad & are so accustomed to winning games that i really think they are the team to beat.

Dont be at yourself

Yep, both England and Brazil have a very good chance of finishing second on their group. England, if they beat USA on the opening day, might take the opportunity to rest players if they're already through come the third match day. Brazil's group will no doubt go down to the wire, and it's possible that goal difference could separate the three teams in contention.

enda1

Italy will beat Spain in the final to win. (depending on draw of course, but Italy to win none the less).

Argentina will be out in the quarters (all that class but no manager).

England will be out in the quarters (all that manager but no class).

Germany to get to semis, along with the French.

Brazil - quarters I'd say.

Mr. Presentable

I've uploaded my last 16 on the xls. Germany beat Brazil on penalties

rossie1977

Hoki wrote: »

They have lost 1 game since November 2006 & that was the semi final of a confederations cup where they looked tired coming off the back of a hectic 12 months.

You dont become a bad team overnight & although they have some injury worries they have an extremely strong squad & are so accustomed to winning games that i really think they are the team to beat.

nobody is saying spain are a bad team but history is not on their side, yes they were great 2 years ago when everyone was on the top of their game then, compare the dutch 1988 with the one that went to the WC in 1990, striking similiaries, that dutch team looked unbeatable in 88 and looked very ordinary in italy despite the same players for the most part

imo spain won't win the WC because:

1.many of their stars are not fit coming into this tournament
2.the best spain have ever done in the world cup is semi finals
3.four years ago they had villa, torres, alonso, xavi, iniesta, casillas, puyol, fabregas, ramos; so nine of the same starters as this year and they went out once again tamely in round 2
4. no european team has ever won the WC outside europe
5. the confederations cup showed major flaws in the spanish side

Hoki

rossie1977 wrote: »

nobody is saying spain are a bad team but history is not on their side, yes they were great 2 years ago when everyone was on the top of their game then, compare the dutch 1988 with the one that went to the WC in 1990, striking similiaries, that dutch team looked unbeatable in 88 and looked very ordinary in italy despite the same players for the most part

imo spain won't win the WC because:

1.many of their stars are not fit coming into this tournament
2.the best spain have ever done in the world cup is semi finals
3.four years ago they had villa, torres, alonso, xavi, iniesta, casillas, puyol, fabregas, ramos; so nine of the same starters as this year and they went out once again tamely in round 2
4. no european team has ever won the WC outside europe
5. the confederations cup showed major flaws in the spanish side

1. They have a relatively weak group so i think they can rest their major injury doubts for some of these games to be fresh for the knockout stages.

2. They had never won the European Championship until 2 years ago ?

3. You have seen the run they have gone on since then , they have obviously gelled a lot since the last world cup & the players have the experience of knowing what it takes to win a major international footballing tournament.

4. All records have to be broken sometime...

5. They were pretty much after playing for 12 months straight so exhaustion obviously played a factor with a shock win for the US . I honestly dont think that would have happened if they were a bit more fresh